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Old 10-16-2019, 10:59 AM   #8726
wiiziwiig
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by SandraXII View Post
Exactly, any 2NL regular these days, or even the lowest stakes MTT reg, would be able to figure out an optimal, or at least serviceable strategy for having a large but plausible winrate so they didn't get caught, if they were in Postle's shoes. It's absolutely insane to me how Postle didn't understand how to exercise even a modicum of caution in regards to his approach.
I think they thought they had the perfect plan. It was a small stream from a small casino. They had talking head commentators not analyzing plays too deeply, merely a distraction, constantly talking over table talk, which I can only assume is by design. Mike already built a rep for having a certain playing style so he could get away with more moves while remaining undetected. After all that its just ego more than greed, "oh you think you can rebluff me with a missed draw? **** you, im going to rebluff your rebluff!". Imagine the shot of dopamine this guy got every time he pulled a "soul read" on his opponents. He probably just got addicted to that rush. At this point, its like a game to him, the game within the game. "What move can i make that would maximally exploit my opponent given I know his hole cards". So ego and the rush it gives him. Then you have JFK and Taylor covering Mikes tracks when he got too OOL. Mike can't even remember what hands JFK changed, i.e. 88 hand. Just a really overall sloppy operation. I couldn't tell you why they didn't slow down after Veronica voiced her concerns. Youde think theyd be afraid of losing their jobs, their reputation, their freedom.
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Old 10-16-2019, 11:08 AM   #8727
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Eponymous View Post
You can see at 4:27:50 when the dealer is mucking his cards that it is clearly the 9. The black 9 is never clear that it's the 9, but it looks more like a club than a spade, and there's no reason to think it's not.
oh yeah very good, you are right, I just wanted to run it past you guys, to see what it really was.
The whole hand is pretty weird and I think I was starting to disbelieve everything about it lol
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Old 10-16-2019, 11:10 AM   #8728
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

So did MikeP ever try to defend himself about this whole thing? Or did he admit it?
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Old 10-16-2019, 11:15 AM   #8729
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
I think they thought they had the perfect plan. It was a small stream from a small casino. They had talking head commentators not analyzing plays too deeply, merely a distraction, constantly talking over table talk, which I can only assume is by design. Mike already built a rep for having a certain playing style so he could get away with more moves while remaining undetected. After all that its just ego more than greed, "oh you think you can rebluff me with a missed draw? **** you, im going to rebluff your rebluff!". Imagine the shot of dopamine this guy got every time he pulled a "soul read" on his opponents. He probably just got addicted to that rush. At this point, its like a game to him, the game within the game. "What move can i make that would maximally exploit my opponent given I know his hole cards". So ego and the rush it gives him. Then you have JFK and Taylor covering Mikes tracks when he got too OOL. Mike can't even remember what hands JFK changed, i.e. 88 hand. Just a really overall sloppy operation. I couldn't tell you why they didn't slow down after Veronica voiced her concerns. Youde think theyd be afraid of losing their jobs, their reputation, their freedom.
I think he got cockier and more careless over time as most criminals tend to.

Just watching the first 3 streams, you can see him getting bolder as it goes.
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Old 10-16-2019, 11:43 AM   #8730
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by deuceblocker View Post
Interesting poker theory of how to play if you could see everyone's cards. If you knew what he was doing, you could just snap call Postle's ridiculous river overbets as long as you didn't have a big hand.
This is one of the reasons he couldn't move up in stakes and cheat in a bigger streamed game. This sort of poker is actually exploitable by observant opponents. I suspect knowing all the cards can make one a winning player at any stakes, but you are going to win a lot less if your river shoves get called by observant opponents or you are forced to balance to avoid being exploited.
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:05 PM   #8731
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
This is one of the reasons he couldn't move up in stakes and cheat in a bigger streamed game. This sort of poker is actually exploitable by observant opponents. I suspect knowing all the cards can make one a winning player at any stakes, but you are going to win a lot less if your river shoves get called by observant opponents or you are forced to balance to avoid being exploited.
Yea it's almost like a toy game. If you know that your opponent is maximally exploiting you with perfect information, you can maximally exploit them in return.
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:07 PM   #8732
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Are you people seriously proposing that knowing the cards could be negated by balancing? Seriously, some people
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:10 PM   #8733
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Are you people seriously proposing that knowing the cards could be negated by balancing? Seriously, some people
GTO > CTO
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:12 PM   #8734
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by deuceblocker View Post
Interesting poker theory of how to play if you could see everyone's cards. If you knew what he was doing, you could just snap call Postle's ridiculous river overbets as long as you didn't have a big hand.
Anyone know if he actually balanced and was overbet shoving for value a lot? if he was mostly only using super big sizing for his bluffs he's even stupider than I thought.

Not sure if it's already been mentioned, but I wonder if there were other regs in the game who saw the patterns and didn't say anything because they knew they could exploit him and wanted him in the game for as long as possible.
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:19 PM   #8735
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Kelvis View Post
Are you people seriously proposing that knowing the cards could be negated by balancing? Seriously, some people
When he jams, fold 2nd nuts, call 3rd pair / ace high. Ez game.

Last edited by d2_e4; 10-16-2019 at 12:20 PM. Reason: Joking obvs, but there is prob a strategy that works vs someone as dumb as Postle
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:20 PM   #8736
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Kelvis View Post
Are you people seriously proposing that knowing the cards could be negated by balancing? Seriously, some people
No, not by balancing, the opposite of balancing actually. And only if they were playing like an idiot, i.e. Mike Postle. Of course, they would still win, they could just adjust to our adjustments and exploit us in return. It is just a thought experiment.
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:21 PM   #8737
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Yeah super easy to just call down when he bets big. Especially if he can actually SEE YOUR CARDS and can adjust after literally one hand. You can´t get away with it exploiting him without him seeing it.

I mean it would be fun to do it because you can see his hand like 30 minutes after. If you know he is cheating you can basically play in a way that forces him to expose himself as a cheater.
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:25 PM   #8738
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Kelvis View Post
Yeah super easy to just call down when he bets big. Especially if he can actually SEE YOUR CARDS and can adjust after literally one hand. You can´t get away with it exploiting him without him seeing it.
HU it wouldn't work. Full ring, if you're only involved in a handful of big hands with him, it might. Also, his head will explode when you quietly muck the 2nd nut flush on the river to his 1/2 pot bet. He won't know how to adjust.

Tuchman discussed this on his podcast a few days ago. It was linked earlier in the thread.
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:28 PM   #8739
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Wild Card View Post
oh yeah very good, you are right, I just wanted to run it past you guys, to see what it really was.
The whole hand is pretty weird and I think I was starting to disbelieve everything about it lol


It's the 9 of clubs, 7:12 to 7:13 you can see it for a really short moment.

Last edited by JustSome1; 10-16-2019 at 12:36 PM.
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:29 PM   #8740
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dreamer View Post
Has anyone done any detailed river analysis?
piranha is doing that.
His spreadsheet might prove useful somewhere along the line. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...eHY/edit#gid=0
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Originally Posted by grjr View Post
Has anyone posted the actual dates that JFK was away? I haven't seen them.
They were posted a long time ago in the thread. Exact dates of when he left and arrived back in California aren't 100% confirmed, but he is often seen roaming the floor and/or moderating the chatbox when he's in the building, so we know when he was definitely not on holiday. (Sightings are added to a spreadsheet).
There are three separate times when JFK is known to have been away for several days. He went to:
The Bahamas (January 2019),
Vegas (June-July 2019), and
Australia (July 31st-Aug 7th 2019).
There were at least two sessions during January '19 that are thought to be God mode sessions (when JFK was almost certainly in the Bahamas), and one on July 31st '19 that needs further investigation, as it might be a God mode session, but we're not sure if JFK was still at work on that day.
The short story is that some cheating happened when JFK was not overseeing the stream. i.e. He either wasn't an accomplice, or Postle didn't actually need him to physically be in the building when using his superpowers.
There appears to be a stronger correlation between the dates of the cheating sessions and the working hours of a different, and slightly less visible, employee of Stones. This suspect is less visible because his job mainly involves him working in the 'peek room', with direct access to the hole-cards and graphics software.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JustSome1 View Post
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QTKqglqKjk
25/08/2019
Was someone going through this stream yet?
Your links point to the stream of August 5th, which is marked as "Godmode OFF" in the spreadsheet. Thanks for the additional details.
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:33 PM   #8741
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly View Post
Your links point to the stream of August 5th, which is marked as "Godmode OFF" in the spreadsheet. Thanks for the additional details.
Sorry, yea, was the 5th.
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:34 PM   #8742
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

It really depends on how smart he is and how much he's paying attention.

If you just snap him off in a giant pot when he bluff jams ... then he might catch on. If you agonize over it and hero call, maybe not.

Either way the optimal play is probably to yank him out of his chair and check his phone ala 'Casino' https://twitter.com/joeingram1/statu...100288?lang=en
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:38 PM   #8743
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Wild Card View Post
oh yeah very good, you are right, I just wanted to run it past you guys, to see what it really was.
The whole hand is pretty weird and I think I was starting to disbelieve everything about it lol
dude, you need more sleep
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:42 PM   #8744
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Kelvis View Post
Yeah super easy to just call down when he bets big. Especially if he can actually SEE YOUR CARDS and can adjust after literally one hand. You can´t get away with it exploiting him without him seeing it.

I mean it would be fun to do it because you can see his hand like 30 minutes after. If you know he is cheating you can basically play in a way that forces him to expose himself as a cheater.
I should have been more clear by what I meant by "toy game", I was implying set strategies for both players. Player A could see Player B's hole cards and would always maximally exploit, Player B knew Player A could see hole cards and would maximally exploit. Player A could not adjust to Player B's exploits. Still debatable whether player B could win, definitely not heads up but maybe 9 handed; interesting thought experiment nonetheless.
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:43 PM   #8745
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Kelvis View Post
Are you people seriously proposing that knowing the cards could be negated by balancing? Seriously, some people
There have been a couple of recent threads in the Poker Theory forum on this topic, one of which was started by David Sklansky.
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:45 PM   #8746
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Anyone besides my self thing he will get off (legally) free?*he may catch a beating, but probably also unlikely

Is there anything he can actually be charged on without real “proof”

Obv we know 100% he cheated. But can they prove it to a jury?
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Old 10-16-2019, 12:51 PM   #8747
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Carl Trooper View Post
Anyone besides my self thing he will get off (legally) free?*he may catch a beating, but probably also unlikely

Is there anything he can actually be charged on without real “proof”

Obv we know 100% he cheated. But can they prove it to a jury?
I was thinking the same. A jury without any poker knowledge probably will not be convinced by those evidences. For them poker is probably just a game of luck and everything could happen at any time. They probably will not nderstand that those winrates are impossible. He can just argue he is way better than others.
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Old 10-16-2019, 01:02 PM   #8748
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Helllsreal View Post
I was thinking the same. A jury without any poker knowledge probably will not be convinced by those evidences. For them poker is probably just a game of luck and everything could happen at any time. They probably will not nderstand that those winrates are impossible. He can just argue he is way better than others.
Yes, but by the end of the trail they will have a better understanding of the area the accused operates in (just like say a jury would learn about medical matters in a medically related trial, or learn about bank fraud in a bank fraud case).

And then they can use their newfound knowledge to decide he is guilty. guilty. guilty.
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Old 10-16-2019, 01:02 PM   #8749
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Again, juries are weird. You don't always know what will happen with them. But there are hundreds of cases a week in trial with less evidence than this case even before potential subpoenas, discovery etc.

To think this is a weak case would be to think basically everything without a confession is. Your average prosecutor would love to be trying a case where crimes were committed on video.
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Old 10-16-2019, 01:13 PM   #8750
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by whosnext View Post
There have been a couple of recent threads in the Poker Theory forum on this topic, one of which was started by David Sklansky.
Interesting, I'll definitely check that out. Thanks for sharing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl Trooper View Post
Anyone besides my self thing he will get off (legally) free?*he may catch a beating, but probably also unlikely

Is there anything he can actually be charged on without real “proof”

Obv we know 100% he cheated. But can they prove it to a jury?
I think the hard part is getting him charged with a crime. Stone's will do anything in their power to sweep this under the rug; not that they are involved in any capacity. If it does go to criminal court, lawyers in the thread have said their is a pretty good chance that he could be convicted, but getting charged is half the battle. I guess we as a community could boycott Stones, but for the locals, that's like asking fentanyl addicts to boycott cartels because cartels are killing ppl by lacing fentanyl with heroin, just don't see it happening. Regardless, it might be worth starting a #boycottStones, even if it doesn't stop locals from going, it could still send a message. I mean, we have to do something if this doesn't go to criminal court.

Last edited by wiiziwiig; 10-16-2019 at 01:20 PM.
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