Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

News, Views, and Gossip For poker news, views and gossip.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-15-2019, 06:46 PM   #8626
jal300
journeyman
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 326
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by zizek View Post
The analogy is to illustrate that you dont have to support bad arguments even if you agree with their conclusion. The "obviousness" of the statistical evidence, ironically, seems most obvious to people with the least actual knowledge of statistics.
This is a good post: questioning/challenging a datapoint/argument isn't the same thing is disagreeing with the conclusion.
jal300 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 06:48 PM   #8627
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by zizek View Post
We can't even reach consensus on how to reasonably estimate winrates in extremely controlled, lab-like simulations like with Pluribus, but suddenly with Postle we've reached collective enlightenment despite the numerous added external variables in live play vs dozens of different opponents. It's hard not to see a bias in the discourse here.
We haven't even *measured* the actual sampled winrate from hands that we have on video tape yet.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 06:51 PM   #8628
Olswang
newbie
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 37
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Should the case ever reach a civil and/or criminal jury trial - which is possible but unlikely - I find it hard to imagine a scenario where no unsequestered juror has googled Mike Postle, Stones Gambling Hall, Poker, Cheating and reached pages like these and been informed.
Olswang is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 07:03 PM   #8629
Shocked
centurion
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 136
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Olswang View Post
Should the case ever reach a civil and/or criminal jury trial - which is possible but unlikely - I find it hard to imagine a scenario where no unsequestered juror has googled Mike Postle, Stones Gambling Hall, Poker, Cheating and reached pages like these and been informed.
Lol. Are you serious? Outside of the poker world, nobody gives a **** about poker. 99.9% of people I talk to about poker respond with some variant of 'isn't poker gambling?' Or 'o I play blackjack sometimes.'...smh...

You'd be surprised how many people don't peruse the internet at all. Lawyers in courtrooms have no problem finding people...
Shocked is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 07:06 PM   #8630
Suit
Pooh-Bah
 
Suit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 4,751
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
Again, no competent prosecutor is going to prosecute the case that way.

A random person on the street COULD definitely attribute the streak to luck, but not all the stuff with the crotch and the buddy and the way the play changed when he started winning, etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
any competent prosecutor would avoid statistical analysis like the plague. there should be enough physical evidence to prove he cheated.
In case you missed it, there is a civil suit brought against them already. We are not talking about anything involving a prosecutor.
Suit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 07:09 PM   #8631
mcb08
grinder
 
mcb08's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Not where u think I am
Posts: 434
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by carlmurr7 View Post
if anyone has a doubt about if mike is cheating:
i don't know if anyone posted it before but here is the top ten SHADY HANDS of mike postle:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdNbgiHZEfg&t=71s
These illustrate how greedy he was. If he chose to fold even one of these it would help his case. I don't understand what is thought to have happened in the hand where his hole cards changed to 8s9s. Why would his accomplice (supposedly) change what was shown in the stream?
mcb08 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 07:10 PM   #8632
fozzy71
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
fozzy71's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: 8 Mile + 2.5
Posts: 37,557
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post
Zizek using Bonomo as an example of a historically clean player on a heater was an interesting example.

I didn't read his post, or anything after this post, but this made me lol.










Last edited by fozzy71; 10-15-2019 at 07:28 PM. Reason: .........
fozzy71 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 07:16 PM   #8633
Olswang
newbie
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 37
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shocked View Post
Lol. Are you serious? Outside of the poker world, nobody gives a **** about poker. 99.9% of people I talk to about poker respond with some variant of 'isn't poker gambling?' Or 'o I play blackjack sometimes.'...smh...

You'd be surprised how many people don't peruse the internet at all. Lawyers in courtrooms have no problem finding people...
Are you telling me that if you were chosen as a juror in a civil or criminal trial and were not sequestered that simply out of curiosity you would not try to find out more information about the case online during the trial? I find that difficult to believe.
Olswang is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 07:23 PM   #8634
Outoftime44444
adept
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 740
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Olswang View Post
Are you telling me that if you were chosen as a juror in a civil or criminal trial and were not sequestered that simply out of curiosity you would not try to find out more information about the case online during the trial? I find that difficult to believe.
they is no way a case involving a televised poker game and like $300,000 in damages max will have a sequestered jury. this is just a run of the mill case.
Outoftime44444 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 07:24 PM   #8635
Outoftime44444
adept
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 740
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcb08 View Post
There are people itt who aren't convinced that Postle cheated. You dont think that there could be jurors who could be convinced that he was just lucky?
No, because it doesn't have to be unanimous and the jurors will sit there for 8 hours a day for 2-3 weeks , having experts tell them what to think.
Outoftime44444 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 07:26 PM   #8636
aoFrantic
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
aoFrantic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 23,494
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Redgrape View Post
This is such black and white thinking. If a dataset isn't a perfect comparison and we don't know for a fact the probability of someone cheating at a poker game then we should throw all this data out the window? We have tons of data on online poker, and we know cheating at poker games does occur. Yes this is deep stacked live poker in a super easy game, but it's not like they are playing cribbage and everyone else is playing texas holdem.
Most online bots are caught from other players having incomplete information but it is still quite obvious.
aoFrantic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 07:26 PM   #8637
Olswang
newbie
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 37
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Outoftime44444 View Post
they is no way a case involving a televised poker game and like $300,000 in damages max will have a sequestered jury. this is just a run of the mill case.
Obviously, totally agree
Olswang is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 08:03 PM   #8638
jjjou812
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 3,551
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Olswang View Post
Are you telling me that if you were chosen as a juror in a civil or criminal trial and were not sequestered that simply out of curiosity you would not try to find out more information about the case online during the trial? I find that difficult to believe.
Since judges will directly prohibit you from doing this, probably no.
jjjou812 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 08:08 PM   #8639
wiiziwiig
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,407
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcb08 View Post
His bet sizing post-flop, turn, river is perfect. If he wants you to call, he'll bet enough to price you in. If he wants you to fold, he'll make a massive overbet, forcing you to make a hero call.
Colloquially "perfect" could mean played really well. His plays, however, are horrendously bad. AK vs AK river shove is clear cut the absolute worst option you can make, it is only a good move to one hand, AK. It is only a perfect move if he has perfect information. And that is a distinction I think is important to make. To a layman, if you say he played perfectly, they will think that he just played all his hands well and won a bunch of money. That is far from the case.
wiiziwiig is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 08:12 PM   #8640
lawdude
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 10,305
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Suit View Post
In case you missed it, there is a civil suit brought against them already. We are not talking about anything involving a prosecutor.
I am going to be kind of cynical here. The civil suit doesn't really matter. It's probably going to be settled by Stones, and even if Postle is required to pay back his winnings and some punitive damages, that's not really going to be a lot of justice in this matter (especially if he is judgment proof). Most likely, it never goes to trial.

I am glad the victims are seeking some sort of redress, but that's not where justice will be done.

What matters is whether, and what, prosecutors are going to do. They are the only ones who can seriously punish Postle and his conspirator(s). And that's going to depend on whether they care about this and take this seriously. If they do, they have a strong case if they stay away from statistics. If they don't, there's going to be very little justice done here.
lawdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 08:13 PM   #8641
lawdude
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 10,305
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Olswang View Post
Are you telling me that if you were chosen as a juror in a civil or criminal trial and were not sequestered that simply out of curiosity you would not try to find out more information about the case online during the trial? I find that difficult to believe.
You do realize that jurors take an oath, and that any juror who takes such information into a jury room will at the very least be thrown off the jury and can be held in contempt of court and jailed.
lawdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 08:26 PM   #8642
DonKingFishys
stranger
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 7
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Very True as Poker is not an exact Science & anyone who plays perfect winnable poker 77
Days out of 87 days & Winning at 1/3 2/5 5/5 at $300,000k. Now let’s prepare this for a Bot named Mike Postle on internet Poker. 1st Mike would be daft to play 1/2 or 2/4 on Internet online poker as the tracking leaving 1 or 2% for errors would be picked up more likely by Party Poker or Unibet very quickly. Party Poker is leading the way of catching Bots & the Site updates us all every month on how many got Caught & how much was stolen & they freeze their accounts & give it back to the player Victims ����.

Now I’m sure some sites that got shut down or just stole your money like Lock Poker.

If you worked on the security & programming System for a poker company then their is a way that a techie Programmer can feed in reel time all the cards on the Table! Then relay that info straight to a normal player who does a Mike Postle.
As a statistician from what I’ve seen & calculated with the videos out their is Pure Cheating where Postle & maybe JFK are colluding to con not money from very rich guys but the recreational players. These types of Rec players just think they are having a huge downswing & waiting for an upswing which all who played Postle Won’t be losing that much but Infact could be winning?

Why has Postle not got the Casino to do a 25/50 50/100 & 100/200?
Postle & JFK if they are guilty & imo they are or would be caught out a lot quicker. Pros & Rich Recs look out for all types of cheating & after their meet-ups drinks & back to the grind it wouldn’t take long for a high stakes player to pin point cheating & in a way we have all benefitted as we will all be scrutinising hats, looking at your ball sacks & frantically rubbing your cards together to say that the machine is not picking up the cards.

They tried to keep it 1/3 5/5 to go under the radar not to turn to cheating at 50/100 & 100/200 so they did not get caught until now.

Last edited by DonKingFishys; 10-15-2019 at 08:31 PM.
DonKingFishys is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 08:26 PM   #8643
baudib1
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
baudib1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Bob's Tavern
Posts: 21,437
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

There are juries found for sensational murders and celebrities crimes all the time. 99% of Sacramento has no idea who Mike Postle is.
baudib1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 08:27 PM   #8644
Mason Malmuth
Former Top Dog
 
Mason Malmuth's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: @MasonMalmuth
Posts: 12,211
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by boredoo View Post
Let me be clear, I think there's zero chance Postle is innocent.

Bu I have some issues with the discussion of statistical evidence of cheating. A lot of people in this thread, on twitter, and in podcasts have referenced the probabilities of the win rates being possible. A lot of people have referenced that the likelihood is 1/(atoms in universe), etc.

But I'm not at all confident in the probabilities people are throwing around. Here's why.

These probability estimates assume a normal distribution of win rates (this is reasonable IMO) and require knowing the average win rate and the standard deviation of the win rates.

An average win rate of 0 is reasonable (it's actually less than 0 with rake, but let's ignore that.)

But we have no idea the correct standard deviation to use for these calculations in live poker. If we don't know the SD, all these probability estimates based upon the normal distribution are just complete guesses.

If someone can explain to me how they arrived at a reasonable standard deviation estimate of a win rate, I'd appreciate that. FWIW, I can't even figure out the formula people use. The PT4 forums reference work by Mason, but the links are dead.
Hi boredom:

See my book Gambling Theory and Other Topics for the formula for the maximum likelihood estimator of the standard deviation.

Best wishes,
Mason
Mason Malmuth is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 08:28 PM   #8645
Eponymous
Photoshop Comic Genius
 
Eponymous's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: How many letters do we have for thi
Posts: 4,572
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Olswang View Post
Are you telling me that if you were chosen as a juror in a civil or criminal trial and were not sequestered that simply out of curiosity you would not try to find out more information about the case online during the trial? I find that difficult to believe.
I've been a juror on both a civil and a criminal trial, and in both cases, the judge gave instructions not to go home and search for any history on the case. And I didn't. Why would I? To satisfy my own curiosity, I'm not going to do my part to give the parties involved a fair trial? How weak of mind do you have to be to say, "It's killing me! I gotta read what happened!"
Eponymous is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 08:44 PM   #8646
Olswang
newbie
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 37
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
You do realize that jurors take an oath, and that any juror who takes such information into a jury room will at the very least be thrown off the jury and can be held in contempt of court and jailed.
I do. Discovered incidents of it occurring are reported regularly.
Olswang is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 08:49 PM   #8647
jjjou812
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 3,551
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
1. There was most likely no successful spoliation of evidence. It's actually extremely hard to do it in general and even harder to do it when we are talking about electronic communications. I'd say the likelihood is at least 50 percent that if there's a criminal prosecution, they will have his phone with relevant evidence still on it.

2. The most important discovery is going to be any search warrants and subpoenas served in a criminal case. It is entirely possible these have already been served; you wouldn't necessarily hear about them if they have been. With a search warrant, the police can get evidence basically immediately; civil discovery requests take lots of time.

3. Civil cases like this almost always get stayed if criminal charges are brought. You are correct about the 5th Amendment issues.
1) I think it depends on whether Postle was getting the live stream from the server, a Trojan on jfks laptop or through an accomplice. I assume a digital footprint of some type would allow someone to figure out when an unauthorized source was getting the stream. I assume that information would provide a link to Mike's phone. Unless he was dumb enough to have the stream go to his main cell, I would expect he used a burner phone that he took some precautions of being traced back to him. So I would assume that without getting possession of the phone, it may be hard link of the phone to mike. If giving up the phone sinks Postle, I don't think he gives it up.

2) I would expect the internal investigation would be turned over to the gaming commission and or police before any search warrants are issued.

3) I expect the initial defense filing would be a request for a stay if there was an ongoing criminal proceeding.
jjjou812 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 08:53 PM   #8648
AceHighIsGood
centurion
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 163
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by pollywog1 View Post
Postle also said he was often down 20k - 50k during the 30 minutes of play before the stream would start.

The absolute absurdity of that claim shouldn't need to be pointed out, but let that sink in for a minute. Not only is he saying that he brings in excess of 50k to the game, but with the initial max buyin set at 2k and players often buying in for less than that, he's claiming he has lost 25x that in 30 minutes.

To go a step further, try to find a stream that starts with that much money collectively on the table.

And finally, that's such a laughable defense for his inhuman winrate while the stream is live. He's so bad at poker that he just loses heaps and heaps when the stream is dark, yet somehow he completely turns it around when the lights are on.
Not to mention that "I only win when the stream is running, and lose when the stream is off" is just more data that proves that he is cheating.
AceHighIsGood is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 08:55 PM   #8649
sirdogstar
newbie
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 39
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eponymous View Post
I've been a juror on both a civil and a criminal trial, and in both cases, the judge gave instructions not to go home and search for any history on the case. And I didn't. Why would I? To satisfy my own curiosity, I'm not going to do my part to give the parties involved a fair trial? How weak of mind do you have to be to say, "It's killing me! I gotta read what happened!"
Mike Postle would totally google the parties involved if he was a juror.
sirdogstar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2019, 09:05 PM   #8650
Bonomo's ears
centurion
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 125
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by sirdogstar View Post
Mike Postle would totally google the parties involved if he was a juror.
Would that be a crotch Google?
Bonomo's ears is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:36 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive