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Old 10-15-2019, 05:51 PM   #8601
Natamus
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by zizek View Post
I'm saying that despite you, and others, repeatedly claiming this, that comparable data doesn't exist anywhere. You have- at best- self-reported results from of a small sample of people who have a tax incentive to underreport, playing against completely different people with a completely different style. Bayesian inference only exacerbates the error of these assumptions by relying on yet another completely unknowable statistic (prevalence of cheating).



I assume that's directed at me. Say Veronica has a chihuahua named Mips, and she says Mips only barks at people who cheat at poker, and when Postle met Mips, Mips started barking. Then when someone with common sense points out how ridiculous that entire premise is, you come along and say "well if you don't trust Mips I guess you think he's not cheating! How stupid can you be?" It's embarrassing, really.


That’s was so bad you should feel bad for posting that.

We found the worst analogy in a thread full of absurd statements, analogies and theories
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Old 10-15-2019, 05:51 PM   #8602
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
Again, no competent prosecutor is going to prosecute the case that way.



A random person on the street COULD definitely attribute the streak to luck, but not all the stuff with the crotch and the buddy and the way the play changed when he started winning, etc.
There are people itt who aren't convinced that Postle cheated. You dont think that there could be jurors who could be convinced that he was just lucky?
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Old 10-15-2019, 05:54 PM   #8603
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post
Zizek using Bonomo as an example of a historically clean player on a heater was an interesting example.
lol
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:01 PM   #8604
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by zizek View Post
Say Veronica has a chihuahua named Mips, and she says Mips only barks at people who cheat at poker, and when Postle met Mips, Mips started barking. Then when someone with common sense points out how ridiculous that entire premise is, you come along and say "well if you don't trust Mips I guess you think he's not cheating! How stupid can you be?" It's embarrassing, really.
You seem smart enough to realize how terrible of an analogy this is. You are equating the reaction to a premise that 0% of the people on this forum (or basically any group of people) would agree with to one that has convinced the overwhelming majority of the people who have taken the time to review it.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:03 PM   #8605
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Suit View Post
Something tells me that more than 90% of the people in this thread think he's cheating. He is so screwed in that lawsuit. His only hope is that 0% of the jury knows anything about poker and are too stupid to understand.
any competent prosecutor would avoid statistical analysis like the plague. there should be enough physical evidence to prove he cheated.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:07 PM   #8606
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by boredoo View Post
Let me be clear, I think there's zero chance Postle is innocent.

Bu I have some issues with the discussion of statistical evidence of cheating. A lot of people in this thread, on twitter, and in podcasts have referenced the probabilities of the win rates being possible. A lot of people have referenced that the likelihood is 1/(atoms in universe), etc.

But I'm not at all confident in the probabilities people are throwing around. Here's why.

These probability estimates assume a normal distribution of win rates (this is reasonable IMO) and require knowing the average win rate and the standard deviation of the win rates.

An average win rate of 0 is reasonable (it's actually less than 0 with rake, but let's ignore that.)

But we have no idea the correct standard deviation to use for these calculations in live poker. If we don't know the SD, all these probability estimates based upon the normal distribution are just complete guesses.

If someone can explain to me how they arrived at a reasonable standard deviation estimate of a win rate, I'd appreciate that. FWIW, I can't even figure out the formula people use. The PT4 forums reference work by Mason, but the links are dead.
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Originally Posted by Kelvis View Post
You can get a lot crazier than that. 50bb/100 isn't the cap for the best winners in deep stack live games. Let's say he has an observed winrate of 500 bb/100 but with straddles and such he has a winrate of 250 bb/100. Let's also crank up the standard deviation to 800 bb/100 (because why the hell not). Surely he must be somewhat likely to barely double his actual winrate right?

To win at 500bb/100 when actually crushing at 250bb/100, even with a SDV of 800bb/100, he comes in at less than 0,1% chance of doing such a sunrun. Of course we're talking about a guy who gets it in preflop with 54 off suit, so the argument that he is simply the best player ever doesn't stand. You can't simultaneously say he is a good player on a heater and have him donk off preflop with 54o. Realistically he is slightly profitable at best. In that case it is astronomically impossible to win that much. So improbable that I would put a revolver with the same amount of chambers as the odds of it happening with 1 bullet in it to my head and happily pull the trigger.
Doesn't really matter what you do with the std dev, the fact is its simply not possible to beat the game for the amount of money he did without cheating.

Last edited by Xenicide; 10-15-2019 at 06:15 PM. Reason: I duplicated a quote by accident sorry.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:11 PM   #8607
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

The good thing about the early filing of the lawsuit in Federal Court will be the immediate discovery requests to preserve Postle's phone and the computers creating the stream. I think this case will likely involve an intentional spoliation of evidence by Postle and a spoliation charge by the judge- i.e., I doubt his phone will ever get turned over. We will probably never see the smoking gun.

Conversely, discovery will be delayed if there are pending/possible criminal charges as all the defendants will assert their 5th amendment rights and no federal judge will make them provide civil deposition testimony. Also, many prosecutors will forego criminal charges when they appear to be solely a tool to exert pressure and prevail on a civil matter. We know of no criminal or gaming investigation at this time.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:11 PM   #8608
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Has anyone done any detailed river analysis?

I think its pretty clear from watching the hands play out he has knowledge of the hole cards but none of the flop/T/R cards.

Clearly he can make perfect decisions on the river. Combined with WTS numbers would paint an interesting picture.

The crazy thing is if he would have only spewed off a few times when he had really strong river hands (but hands that were beat) it would have left HUGE doubts in his play but just calling with the full house and nut flush vs better hands is just plain stupid. He could have raise folded both hands and it would have looked at least reasonable.

This is akin to hole carding BJ and hitting 19 when you know the dealer has 20. Anyone watching that (with a brain) is going to go WTF even though its the correct play.

D.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:13 PM   #8609
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by mcb08 View Post
There's no such thing as perfect poker unless you have perfect information.
Perfect poker is ambiguous, and colloquially can mean many different things, but having perfect information is cheating any way you look at it.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:14 PM   #8610
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Live poker is rigged
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:17 PM   #8611
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Eponymous View Post
You seem smart enough to realize how terrible of an analogy this is. You are equating the reaction to a premise that 0% of the people on this forum (or basically any group of people) would agree with to one that has convinced the overwhelming majority of the people who have taken the time to review it.
The analogy is to illustrate that you dont have to support bad arguments even if you agree with their conclusion. The "obviousness" of the statistical evidence, ironically, seems most obvious to people with the least actual knowledge of statistics.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:18 PM   #8612
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dreamer View Post
Has anyone done any detailed river analysis?



I think its pretty clear from watching the hands play out he has knowledge of the hole cards but none of the flop/T/R cards.

What?
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:19 PM   #8613
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

The last streams i've been looking at, i saw Mike not being in god mode a lot.
He kinda acted like a normal Poker player, i also recognized, that he plays a lot less hands in those stream, not like those 90 VPIP god mode streams.
So there must be a correlation between that, did someone already check the exact amount of VPIP in or off god mode?
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:19 PM   #8614
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by mcb08 View Post
What?
He doesn't know what cards are coming....

D.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:20 PM   #8615
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreamer View Post
Has anyone done any detailed river analysis?

I think its pretty clear from watching the hands play out he has knowledge of the hole cards but none of the flop/T/R cards.

Clearly he can make perfect decisions on the river. Combined with WTS numbers would paint an interesting picture.
I'm too lazy to provide a bunch of examples, so take this with a grain of salt. But based on watching way too many hours of this, I feel very, very confident that Postle knew the hole cards but probably at no point did he know what cards were coming.

It would honestly be ridiculously unnecessary when you consider he's already deliberately giving up EV in several situations just to make the cheating less obvious. And knowing the cards to come might psychologically make it even harder to play in a non-suspicious way.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:25 PM   #8616
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

The RFID reader can barely read an Omaha hand unless it's aligned perfectly. There is no shot it's feeding him a river card 8 cards deep unless the sides of the card were ALSO marked which is incredibly unlikely.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:25 PM   #8617
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dreamer View Post
He doesn't know what cards are coming....



D.
Has anyone ever suggested that he knew what cards were coming?
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:25 PM   #8618
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by mcb08 View Post
There are people itt who aren't convinced that Postle cheated. You dont think that there could be jurors who could be convinced that he was just lucky?
They wouldn't get on the jury in the first place, they would see that view be severely tested through the presentation of the evidence if they got on, and they would be forced to defend their point a view against very hostile fellow jurors in deliberations if they did and managed to hold onto that view after hearing all the evidence.

You can't compare what people are willing to say, anonymously, when BS'ing around on an Internet message board, to service on a jury.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:27 PM   #8619
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dreamer View Post
He doesn't know what cards are coming....



D.


That’s because he doesn’t know what cards are coming. RFID on the cards is limited to 7-8cm from the reader. The stub is in the dealers hand through the hand, too far from the reader in the center of the table.

There are multiple examples of him being ahead with marginal hands only to get poor turn/river cards. If he knew what was coming, he could have just folded with a marginal hand and no one would have thought anything about it
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:28 PM   #8620
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dreamer View Post
Has anyone done any detailed river analysis?

I think its pretty clear from watching the hands play out he has knowledge of the hole cards but none of the flop/T/R cards.

Clearly he can make perfect decisions on the river. Combined with WTS numbers would paint an interesting picture.

The crazy thing is if he would have only spewed off a few times when he had really strong river hands (but hands that were beat) it would have left HUGE doubts in his play but just calling with the full house and nut flush vs better hands is just plain stupid. He could have raise folded both hands and it would have looked at least reasonable.

This is akin to hole carding BJ and hitting 19 when you know the dealer has 20. Anyone watching that (with a brain) is going to go WTF even though its the correct play.

D.
At the end of 3rd stream and have been recording all the hands that make it to the river and where it's clear he's looking at his phone. Have about 35 so far. I didn't break down the statistics of it.

The first few streams, he's in and out of God mode and really uncomfortable. The 3rd stream, he looks awkward but is much more proficient and consistent with it.

From 02:17:00 on of the 3rd stream, he plays perfect on every river and near perfect on every turn (he pays off some small bets where he should be paying them off).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:29 PM   #8621
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
The good thing about the early filing of the lawsuit in Federal Court will be the immediate discovery requests to preserve Postle's phone and the computers creating the stream. I think this case will likely involve an intentional spoliation of evidence by Postle and a spoliation charge by the judge- i.e., I doubt his phone will ever get turned over. We will probably never see the smoking gun.

Conversely, discovery will be delayed if there are pending/possible criminal charges as all the defendants will assert their 5th amendment rights and no federal judge will make them provide civil deposition testimony. Also, many prosecutors will forego criminal charges when they appear to be solely a tool to exert pressure and prevail on a civil matter. We know of no criminal or gaming investigation at this time.
1. There was most likely no successful spoliation of evidence. It's actually extremely hard to do it in general and even harder to do it when we are talking about electronic communications. I'd say the likelihood is at least 50 percent that if there's a criminal prosecution, they will have his phone with relevant evidence still on it.

2. The most important discovery is going to be any search warrants and subpoenas served in a criminal case. It is entirely possible these have already been served; you wouldn't necessarily hear about them if they have been. With a search warrant, the police can get evidence basically immediately; civil discovery requests take lots of time.

3. Civil cases like this almost always get stayed if criminal charges are brought. You are correct about the 5th Amendment issues.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:30 PM   #8622
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by zizek View Post
I'm saying that despite you, and others, repeatedly claiming this, that comparable data doesn't exist anywhere. You have- at best- self-reported results from of a small sample of people who have a tax incentive to underreport, playing against completely different people with a completely different style. Bayesian inference only exacerbates the error of these assumptions by relying on yet another completely unknowable statistic (prevalence of cheating).
This is such black and white thinking. If a dataset isn't a perfect comparison and we don't know for a fact the probability of someone cheating at a poker game then we should throw all this data out the window? We have tons of data on online poker, and we know cheating at poker games does occur. Yes this is deep stacked live poker in a super easy game, but it's not like they are playing cribbage and everyone else is playing texas holdem.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:36 PM   #8623
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by blankoblanco View Post
I'm too lazy to provide a bunch of examples, so take this with a grain of salt. But based on watching way too many hours of this, I feel very, very confident that Postle knew the hole cards but probably at no point did he know what cards were coming.

It would honestly be ridiculously unnecessary when you consider he's already deliberately giving up EV in several situations just to make the cheating less obvious. And knowing the cards to come might psychologically make it even harder to play in a non-suspicious way.
I totally agree, I'm 100% convinced he doesn't know the community cards.

What I will say is that I don't see him giving up too much EV overall.
IMHO he was way too greedy.

He only seems to do it when he absolutely has to, calling the nutflush vs straight flush and calling with a FH against a bigger FH.
Overall he is pretty much maximizing his EV with the information he has.

I will add I do have some experience of playing this type of game in casinos, legally I might add. Knowing some of the dealers hole cards in certain situations and making plays that look crazy in a vacuum.
Saying that I often have the benefit of folding my hole cards without anyone knowing what they were. So overall it makes my play less suspicious.

Imagine if he would have randomly switched off god mode 50%-75% of the time and just played normally the rest of the time.
He would still have crushed pretty hard but would also almost certainly never been caught.

D.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:40 PM   #8624
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
Perfect poker is ambiguous, and colloquially can mean many different things, but having perfect information is cheating any way you look at it.
His bet sizing post-flop, turn, river is perfect. If he wants you to call, he'll bet enough to price you in. If he wants you to fold, he'll make a massive overbet, forcing you to make a hero call.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:43 PM   #8625
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Redgrape View Post
This is such black and white thinking. If a dataset isn't a perfect comparison and we don't know for a fact the probability of someone cheating at a poker game then we should throw all this data out the window? We have tons of data on online poker, and we know cheating at poker games does occur. Yes this is deep stacked live poker in a super easy game, but it's not like they are playing cribbage and everyone else is playing texas holdem.
We can't even reach consensus on how to reasonably estimate winrates in extremely controlled, lab-like simulations like with Pluribus, but suddenly with Postle we've reached collective enlightenment despite the numerous added external variables in live play vs dozens of different opponents. It's hard not to see a bias in the discourse here.
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