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 10-15-2019, 01:57 PM #8551 JustSome1 enthusiast   Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 82 Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) On which day did Mike stop playing on the stream?
10-15-2019, 01:58 PM   #8552
Angrist
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,884
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Xenicide If you knew anything about poker you would know that Mikes win rate is in fact impossible for any human being to achieve over 10k hands, Poker is in fact a very complex game and can even be solved mathematically in theory. The only way you can achieve a win rate like Mikes over this sample size of 10k hands is with more information then your opponents (AKA: seeing your opponents cards). Technically when you have this ability your not really playing poker any more are you? And this can be EASILY shown by his win rate. in theory you could put a perfect Game Theory Optimal super computer against the players at stones and honestly the computers win rate would look NOTHING like Mike postles, thats because the super computer cant see the damn cards.
Well, the problem is that we don't actually know his WR. The first spreadsheet was off, and we haven't had a chance to do a detailed hand-by-hand tally yet.

There's 277 hours in the sheet, so we're looking at 8310 hands assuming 30/hr (might be high with the way they're playing). That's not a *huge* sample size. It's smaller than the sizes I remember being tossed around for accurate stats playing online. It's even smaller if we segment before and after implementing CTO.

Since GTO is no a maximally exploitative strategy (it's a defensive strategy) the fact that it might perform worse than Mike is irrelevant. If we looked at a maximally exploitative strategy (hard to define) then we'd see Mike's looking like it.

10-15-2019, 02:14 PM   #8553
Xenicide
journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 223
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Angrist Since GTO is no a maximally exploitative strategy (it's a defensive strategy) the fact that it might perform worse than Mike is irrelevant. If we looked at a maximally exploitative strategy (hard to define) then we'd see Mike's looking like it.
This couldn't be further from the truth, The way GTO works is it cannot lose money long term. The only way to compete with a GTO bot is by putting it against its self and then its just break even. The further away your strategy is from the GTO bot the more money you will lose long term. Yes you could argue that if you knew GTO and you also knew your opponents ranges then you could in fact exploit that opponent even more. This is a very un realistic assumption nobody even comes close to playing perfect GTO poker.

10-15-2019, 02:16 PM   #8554
lawdude
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 10,305
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by wiiziwiig Ok so from this and previous posts, I gather that 1) It may be somewhat difficult to get to criminal trial, depending on who's investigating, but if they did, there's a good chance for a conviction 2) A civil lawsuit is easy to get to trial, easy to find him guilty, but hard to decide how much plaintiffs should get paid. Would this be an accurate assessment?
Some quibbles, but basically yes.

10-15-2019, 02:21 PM   #8555
wiiziwiig
old hand

Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,407
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Xenicide If you knew anything about poker you would know that Mikes win rate is in fact impossible for any human being to achieve over 10k hands, Poker is in fact a very complex game and can even be solved mathematically in theory. The only way you can achieve a win rate like Mikes over this sample size of 10k hands is with more information then your opponents (AKA: seeing your opponents cards). Technically when you have this ability your not really playing poker any more are you? And this can be EASILY shown by his win rate. In theory you could put a perfect Game Theory Optimal super computer against the players at stones and honestly the computers win rate would look NOTHING like Mike postles, thats because the super computer cant see the damn cards. Again, Poker sites all around the world use this tactic to catch cheaters and bots ALL THE TIME.
Why are you doubling down on this? I already posted 4 pages ago that your math was off based on assumptions you made that were proven to be false. Now, I don't think it's completely useless to look into these things, because at the end of the day, we're just a bunch of people exploring and sharing ideas about a case that we care deeply about, and this is one aspect of the case that should be open for exploration. But to suggest its an open and shut case based on stats alone is myopic, and to ignore evidence that does not suit your narrative is ignorant and classic confirmation bias.

10-15-2019, 02:23 PM   #8556
PTLou
JellyBean

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Playing Offline Poker
Posts: 5,064
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by lawdude That's not right at all. Most convicted murderers go to prison on circumstantial evidence.
certainly not going to question your legal opinion.

but would seem circumstantial evidence in a murder trial is a bit different than circumstantial evidence in this case (win rates, poker strategy, crotch peeks etc etc)

wouldnt a crim case come down to whether or not they uncover direct evidence of cheating or not? if so, why would they muddy the case with poker stuff that will be very hard to explain to jury.

10-15-2019, 02:27 PM   #8557
pzi
stranger

Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 3
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Angrist Well, the problem is that we don't actually know his WR. The first spreadsheet was off, and we haven't had a chance to do a detailed hand-by-hand tally yet. There's 277 hours in the sheet, so we're looking at 8310 hands assuming 30/hr (might be high with the way they're playing). That's not a *huge* sample size. It's smaller than the sizes I remember being tossed around for accurate stats playing online. It's even smaller if we segment before and after implementing CTO. Since GTO is no a maximally exploitative strategy (it's a defensive strategy) the fact that it might perform worse than Mike is irrelevant. If we looked at a maximally exploitative strategy (hard to define) then we'd see Mike's looking like it.
According to the user manual from the PokerGFX website, it suggests they track all hands and other statistics " (VPIP%, PFR%, AGRfq%, WTSD%, Cumulative
Cash Win, Payouts)" for players, so that data should be in a database somewhere, though I'm skeptical how accurate it is given some of the glitches we've seen on their stream.

I imagine they could get a good idea from the data - when things changed and which data points are outliers.

10-15-2019, 02:28 PM   #8558
Angrist
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,884
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Xenicide This couldn't be further from the truth, The way GTO works is it cannot lose money long term. The only way to compete with a GTO bot is by putting it against its self and then its just break even. The further away your strategy is from the GTO bot the more money you will lose long term. Yes you could argue that if you knew GTO and you also knew your opponents ranges then you could in fact exploit that opponent even more. This is a very un realistic assumption nobody even comes close to playing perfect GTO poker.
Not losing money long term is a defensive strategy, by being perfectly balanced such that the opponent's strategy doesn't matter. It also hasn't been solved yet.

The idea that people play ranges that are understandable and exploitable is not controversial. At all. That is a completely realistic assumption and the basis for almost all poker strategy in the past 50 years.

10-15-2019, 02:30 PM   #8559
wiiziwiig
old hand

Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,407
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by lawdude Some quibbles, but basically yes.
Ok thank you!

10-15-2019, 02:33 PM   #8560
Xenicide
journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 223
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by wiiziwiig Why are you doubling down on this? I already posted 4 pages ago that your math was off based on assumptions you made that were proven to be false. Now, I don't think it's completely useless to look into these things, because at the end of the day, we're just a bunch of people exploring and sharing ideas about a case that we care deeply about, and this is one aspect of the case that should be open for exploration. But to suggest its an open and shut case based on stats alone is myopic, and to ignore evidence that does not suit your narrative is ignorant and classic confirmation bias.
Whether or not my numbers are off doesn't mean squat. The point is when the real numbers come out, it will be so far away from what is actually possible.
the possibility for me being off a few hundred bb/100 is irrelevant. Unless this man is winning less than 150bb/100 over the sample we have its not even up for debate.

10-15-2019, 02:58 PM   #8561
12bigworm81

Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,039
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Xenicide Whether or not my numbers are off doesn't mean squat. The point is when the real numbers come out, it will be so far away from what is actually possible. the possibility for me being off a few hundred bb/100 is irrelevant. Unless this man is winning less than 150bb/100 over the sample we have its not even up for debate.

This game is playing FAR deeper than the bb. To ignore that and stomp your feet that his results are impossible is just reckless.

And what would you say to an amateur deciding to turn pro based on their results from 8,500 hands? Way too small of sample size to be meaningful?

10-15-2019, 02:59 PM   #8562
wiiziwiig
old hand

Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,407
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Xenicide Whether or not my numbers are off doesn't mean squat. The point is when the real numbers come out, it will be so far away from what is actually possible. the possibility for me being off a few hundred bb/100 is irrelevant. Unless this man is winning less than 150bb/100 over the sample we have its not even up for debate.
Well that's completely different than what you said earlier. And are you going to rest your case on this arbitrary win rate? If I come back and show him having a win rate of 123bb/100, won't you just lower your magic number to 100?

10-15-2019, 03:10 PM   #8563
_red_dog
grinder

Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Australia
Posts: 489
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Angrist Since GTO is no a maximally exploitative strategy (it's a defensive strategy)

10-15-2019, 03:12 PM   #8564
Natamus
Tripped and Fell

Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Where the buggalo roam
Posts: 16,373
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Angrist But when we apply the Eye Test to what's going on, it certainly looks like either he's cheating, or his dick can read people's souls. .

This is the whole of everything in one sentence.

If you’ve watched the videos and still think he may not be cheating, or that he doesn’t have a magical dick.

A. You also believe in elves and witches and mythical creatures.
B. You’re in denial
C. You’re associated with Mike Postle
D. You’re also some sort of sketchy person and you’re defending those like yourself
E. Any or all of the above

You can entertain each other all day with debates about stats and what ifs of varying magnitudes.

But if you watch those videos of him dick staring and then making every exact right move in spots he shouldn’t be able to w/o knowing his villains hole cards and you still think he’s not cheating; it says way more about you the poster defending him, than anything else.

10-15-2019, 03:18 PM   #8565
Xenicide
journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 223
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Natamus This is the whole of everything in one sentence. If you’ve watched the videos and still think he may not be cheating, or that he doesn’t have a magical dick. A. You also believe in elves and witches and mythical creatures. B. You’re in denial C. You’re associated with Mike Postle D. You’re also some sort of sketchy person and you’re defending those like yourself E. Any or all of the above You can entertain each other all day with debates about stats and what ifs of varying magnitudes. But if you watch those videos of him dick staring and then making every exact right move in spots he shouldn’t be able to w/o knowing his villains hole cards and you still think he’s not cheating; it says way more about you the poster defending him, than anything else.
Awesome Post.

 10-15-2019, 03:28 PM #8566 JustSome1 enthusiast   Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 82 Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmylzYVLsXg 20/04/2019 The session without the hat, i was curious about it. 42:30 Normal river bluff and opponent called him with 2 pair 51:43 What a hand, openwhipping 2,5x pot AKo on 678 rainbow i never ever saw him doing such a play I'm guessing no godmode session here 1:17:10 Bombpot - WTF is that hand again? Postle folding top pair on flop on 1 single bet, and it was the best hand at that point, he would have done this never in god mode, is that the Pokergod folding in this spot? WTF He also actually has both hands/arms on the table, i can't remember seeing this yet. I also can't remember seeing Mike this chilled and relaxed at the table. Phone is on rail some time, the keys really long time. 3:45:20 Just another normal hand, oh well, Mike lost on showndown not even trying to bluff him off second pair Okay, i'm done with this session. Last edited by JustSome1; 10-15-2019 at 03:34 PM.
 10-15-2019, 03:29 PM #8567 Jay Why adept   Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Lundun Posts: 946 Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) I don't know why you guys are over complicating something very simple. To show his impossible success rate you just do a graph of each of his sessions from July 2018 onwards. Each session (bar the ones when JFK was absent) will show an upward trajectory throughout the session, where he loses small pots, and wins big nes, so overall is always showing a profit. Now the mere mortals among us would have daily graphs that show fluctuations, mixes of winning and losing sessions, and lots of jumps within the sessions. But Postle has non stop upward trajectory for 14 months. Then when you factor in his play before he started cheating, and his play when JFK was out of town, and the way those results would be like us mere mortals, up and down, his cheating play is so evident.
 10-15-2019, 03:31 PM #8568 Suit Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 4,751 Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) So I see there is a \$20 million civil lawsuit against MP. Someone posted a video on YT that went through every page of it. I didn't watch much but it named MP, Justin, Kings casino, and Stones. Bad news for stones and Kings.
 10-15-2019, 03:31 PM #8569 whosnext Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: California Posts: 6,372 Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) Can we please not drag GTO into this? It is totally irrelevant to this situation (as any sort of comparison or counter-factual, etc.). And many people have strong feelings and misconceptions about GTO which can only serve to muddy/derail.
10-15-2019, 03:37 PM   #8570
PhillyWolfman
stranger

Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 1
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by PTLou proves everything here on 2+2. nothing more than circumstantial evidence in court and that alone would not be enough for guilty verdict. They will need to flip a witness that will testify to what happened or find direct evidence of cheating. Then case closed.
The burden of proof is much lower in civil court, just 50%+1 and it shouldn’t be that hard convincing a jury he cheated

10-15-2019, 03:40 PM   #8571
namisgr11
old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,342
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 12bigworm81 Your bb/100 is irrelevant. This game is playing FAR deeper than the bb.
It's already been taken into account that several streams played equivalent to an effective bb of \$5 or \$10. It's also the case that while Postle's stack size was nearly always huge in relation to the bb, effective stack sizes were typically far, far smaller.

10-15-2019, 03:42 PM   #8572
boredoo
journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 282
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by zizek Overfitting a model is not controlling for as many variables as possible, it is when you make the model overreact to variance in the observations in a way that assigns signal to the conditions in the observation where there is no signal. Controlling as many variables as reasonably possible is actually one of the best ways to prevent overfitting. It just isn't realistic. But the players in the game, the stakes of the game, and the actual game being played are all extremely meaningful features. That's just one of the many reasons the classic statistics approach doesn't really go anywhere.
This is correct. Insofar as you can identify unique conditions which apply to some games and not others (hat, phone out, etc.), you want to control for these.

Sometimes this wont work if there's too much correlation between Xs in the mode (e.g., if the phone is always out when the hat is backwards).

You can over-fit via too-many-variables if you extract unique things about each session and model them, which will almost match just creating dummy variables for each session, which will perfectly fit the data and be an extremely poor model.

10-15-2019, 03:48 PM   #8573
almony
centurion

Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 100
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Jay Why I don't know why you guys are over complicating something very simple. To show his impossible success rate you just do a graph of each of his sessions from July 2018 onwards. Each session (bar the ones when JFK was absent) will show an upward trajectory throughout the session, where he loses small pots, and wins big nes, so overall is always showing a profit. Now the mere mortals among us would have daily graphs that show fluctuations, mixes of winning and losing sessions, and lots of jumps within the sessions. But Postle has non stop upward trajectory for 14 months. Then when you factor in his play before he started cheating, and his play when JFK was out of town, and the way those results would be like us mere mortals, up and down, his cheating play is so evident.
The problem is he only played a small sample of hands , around 10K ,
i had stretches of 10K hands where my trajectory is straight up. not saying he didn't cheat but this argument would not cut it.

10-15-2019, 03:56 PM   #8574
mcb08
grinder

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Not where u think I am
Posts: 434
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by almony The problem is he only played a small sample of hands , around 10K , i had stretches of 10K hands where my trajectory is straight up. not saying he didn't cheat but this argument would not cut it.
How many incorrect river decisions did you make during that stretch? Did Postle ever make an incorrect call on the river?

10-15-2019, 03:59 PM   #8575
mcb08
grinder

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Not where u think I am
Posts: 434
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Natamus This is the whole of everything in one sentence. If you’ve watched the videos and still think he may not be cheating, or that he doesn’t have a magical dick. A. You also believe in elves and witches and mythical creatures. B. You’re in denial C. You’re associated with Mike Postle D. You’re also some sort of sketchy person and you’re defending those like yourself E. Any or all of the above You can entertain each other all day with debates about stats and what ifs of varying magnitudes. But if you watch those videos of him dick staring and then making every exact right move in spots he shouldn’t be able to w/o knowing his villains hole cards and you still think he’s not cheating; it says way more about you the poster defending him, than anything else.
This should be part of the summary for this thread.

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