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Old 10-14-2019, 10:11 PM   #8476
blankoblanco
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Kelvis View Post
In the end any numbers and STDEV you take don't matter. You can't put much of a positive winrate in the calculator because of the hands like calling off stacks with 54o and such. Even $40k is unattainable for someone with the skills of Mike. Can't have him be the best player ever but also making ******ed plays that are only good plays if you see the cards.
I know that, and you know that, but the question I guess is if it matters in court?
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Old 10-14-2019, 10:15 PM   #8477
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Kelvis View Post
In the end any numbers and STDEV you take don't matter. You can't put much of a positive winrate in the calculator because of the hands like calling off stacks with 54o and such. Even $40k is unattainable for someone with the skills of Mike. Can't have him be the best player ever but also making ******ed plays that are only good plays if you see the cards.
This is an excellent post.

It also got me thinking and I do not claim any originality here. I wonder if it is feasible to go through Postle's plays (all hands?, his river bluffs?) and put opponents on "reasonable" ranges to see how much difference there would be in his winnings compared to him (allegedly ) knowing his opponents cards.

Does this idea make any sense?
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Old 10-14-2019, 10:19 PM   #8478
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by blankoblanco View Post
I know that, and you know that, but the question I guess is if it matters in court?


It won’t need to but it’s a fun discussion exercise
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Old 10-14-2019, 10:22 PM   #8479
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

The most damning would be the fluctuations in his graph. If he has a high standard deviation then even a massively winning player would expect high ups and downs, regardless of where that would end up. If it is basically a straight line up then that implies a low SDTEV and super high winrate, which are both impossible (again, if you get it in with 54o pre) to be true. I would believe a super swingy graph that ends up in super high profit but dipped in a loss in the beginning. What I do not believe is a line going straight up.
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Old 10-14-2019, 10:54 PM   #8480
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Been following this semi closely but was wondering if any smoking gun proof has been posted yet. Or have any recordings of Postle discussing the alleged “cheating” or texts between him and his supposed “inside man” .

A lot of his activity seems suspicious but until there is some smoking gun proof outside of robotron geek nerd math on his hands and sessions he is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Surprised this thread is still open for speculation tbh

-C
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Old 10-14-2019, 11:16 PM   #8481
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
Been following this semi closely but was wondering if any smoking gun proof has been posted yet. Or have any recordings of Postle discussing the alleged “cheating” or texts between him and his supposed “inside man” .

A lot of his activity seems suspicious but until there is some smoking gun proof outside of robotron geek nerd math on his hands and sessions he is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Surprised this thread is still open for speculation tbh

-C
Yeah let me pull his texts out of my ass.

Postle: I am guilty

Yea his text says hes guilty. I should have checked sooner, thank god you asked otherwise this trial could have gone on for years.
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Old 10-14-2019, 11:26 PM   #8482
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
Been following this semi closely but was wondering if any smoking gun proof has been posted yet. Or have any recordings of Postle discussing the alleged “cheating” or texts between him and his supposed “inside man” .

A lot of his activity seems suspicious but until there is some smoking gun proof outside of robotron geek nerd math on his hands and sessions he is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Surprised this thread is still open for speculation tbh

-C
I am not positive but I think you just insulted everybody who has posted in this thread, created videos/hand histories/spreadsheets/highlights on this subject, or has done any of a myriad of any other activities related to these cheating allegations.

But feel free to stop by and post your insights any time!

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Old 10-14-2019, 11:27 PM   #8483
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by IIdonkeyfishII View Post
Like they were gonna raid the next live stream or something and search and gather evidence...
This is exactly what would have happened if Mike was taking money from the CASINO. They could have caught him red handed with whatever equipment he was using and that would have been it.

However, he was only taking money from his dupes and probably making money for the casino so there's no way that was going to happen.
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Old 10-14-2019, 11:29 PM   #8484
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Kelvis View Post
The most damning would be the fluctuations in his graph. If he has a high standard deviation then even a massively winning player would expect high ups and downs, regardless of where that would end up. If it is basically a straight line up then that implies a low SDTEV and super high winrate, which are both impossible (again, if you get it in with 54o pre) to be true. I would believe a super swingy graph that ends up in super high profit but dipped in a loss in the beginning. What I do not believe is a line going straight up.
The most damning statistical evidence would be comparing the wine rate and variance pre-7/18 and post-7/18.
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Old 10-14-2019, 11:36 PM   #8485
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by sirdogstar View Post
The most damning statistical evidence would be comparing the wine rate and variance pre-7/18 and post-7/18.
Good point. If we could calculate his win rate during god mode sessions vs non cheating, I promise you the difference in those numbers wont be possible
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Old 10-14-2019, 11:42 PM   #8486
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by grjr View Post
This is exactly what would have happened if Mike was taking money from the CASINO. They could have caught him red handed with whatever equipment he was using and that would have been it.

However, he was only taking money from his dupes and probably making money for the casino so there's no way that was going to happen.
Sorry mate; "blackjack cheating in progress" will not illicit an armed law enforcement response (i.e. a "raid"). Sure stealing is stealing; but not all stealing is equivalent (as far as law enforcement is concerned) to an armed robbery in progress.
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Old 10-15-2019, 12:07 AM   #8487
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
he is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Surprised this thread is still open for speculation tbh

-C
If he was being charged with a crime, that would be true. In civil cases, matters are settled based on a preponderance of evidence, which essentially amounts to 50+1% of the evidence in one person’s favor.
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Old 10-15-2019, 12:36 AM   #8488
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
Been following this semi closely but was wondering if any smoking gun proof has been posted yet. Or have any recordings of Postle discussing the alleged “cheating” or texts between him and his supposed “inside man” .

A lot of his activity seems suspicious but until there is some smoking gun proof outside of robotron geek nerd math on his hands and sessions he is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Surprised this thread is still open for speculation tbh

-C
I suspect this won't come until the criminal charges are filed. He will roll on JFK/Stones at some point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperSwag View Post
It's surprising the other players didn't adjust to him considering this went on for so long. Like so many spots where they could hero call his ass.

Anyways if mike truly was a crusher he could go on PokerGO or LATB and crush there as well. Love to see him without his bone headset sititng with Andy, Garret, Nick V and Art.

A couple of guys did own him. One hand, a lawyer owned him with AQ (best hand) and re-bluffed MP. There were some ridiculous calldowns, like JJ on AKxxx board. Either way, it's live 1/3, so the players aren't going to be super good and picking up on what was happening, which is part of the reason it went on for so long. Also, you are at such a huge disadvantage when someone knows your cards, there aren't a lot of adjustments you could make.

Last edited by mojo6911; 10-15-2019 at 12:42 AM.
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Old 10-15-2019, 01:13 AM   #8489
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by whosnext View Post
I am not positive but I think you just insulted everybody who has posted in this thread, created videos/hand histories/spreadsheets/highlights on this subject, or has done any of a myriad of any other activities related to these cheating allegations.

But feel free to stop by and post your insights any time!

THIS

Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
Been following this semi closely but was wondering if any smoking gun proof has been posted yet. Or have any recordings of Postle discussing the alleged “cheating” or texts between him and his supposed “inside man” .

A lot of his activity seems suspicious but until there is some smoking gun proof outside of robotron geek nerd math on his hands and sessions he is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Surprised this thread is still open for speculation tbh

-C

You don't need to be a nerd guy with mathskills to know he has been cheating. I have been playing poker for many, many years in the live scene around the world and I have never seen anyone perform like this. Not even in the wildest PLO heaters where the swings can be massive, have I seen anyone with a Postle winrate bb\hour. Not even close.

The question is rather simple: do you believe your own eyes or do you need someone to find some sort of physical evidence. I trust my own judgement and what I actually can see. You should try as well. It is refreshing.
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Old 10-15-2019, 01:13 AM   #8490
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Exactly my friend, I just tried to put it in layman terms for all the "Lawyers" in the chat.
Then you have this brilliant Lawyer who is representing Mike using a quote like:https://www.pokernews.com/news/2019/...onds-35653.htm

Postle's lawyer: "When I play poker I lose almost every hand, so I know such streaks are possible." Yeah this guy clearly knows what hes talking about.....
goodluck Mike
You are kidding yourself if you think his lawyer is anything but an absolute beast. He is one of the most highly decorated gambling/technology lawyers in the the US, maybe even the world.

I would argue there is probably not a single person on the planet who has a better chance at getting Mike off this than this guy and I want Mike to lose as much as anyone.

Dumb looking quotes like this on Twitter are often intentional ploys by lawyers make the opposing legal team think exactly what you're thinking and subsequently underestimate their abilities. Statements like this even have a specific term but I can't remember it (been a while since my legal studies).

Thanks for your stats posts though. Enjoying the reads
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Old 10-15-2019, 01:21 AM   #8491
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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You are kidding yourself if you think his lawyer is anything but an absolute beast. He is one of the most highly decorated gambling/technology lawyers in the the US, maybe even the world.

I would argue there is probably not a single person on the planet who has a better chance at getting Mike off this than this guy and I want Mike to lose as much as anyone.

Dumb looking quotes like this on Twitter are often intentional ploys by lawyers make the opposing legal team think exactly what you're thinking and subsequently underestimate their abilities. Statements like this even have a specific term but I can't remember it (been a while since my legal studies).

Thanks for your stats posts though. Enjoying the reads
This is such an easy case for the prosecutor. If that argument is used the simple question then would be: find one other person that can prove they have had such a win streak. Only one.

Case closed.
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Old 10-15-2019, 01:28 AM   #8492
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by MDR View Post
This is such an easy case for the prosecutor. If that argument is used the simple question then would be: find one other person that can prove they have had such a win streak. Only one.

Case closed.

You have this completely backwards. Winning money isnt a crime. This isnt gonna be held in the court of public opinion. The chances of mike going down because he "won too often" are practically zero. They're gonna need proof and the only people who seem to have any are gonna keep their mouth shut if they have any sense at all
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Old 10-15-2019, 01:32 AM   #8493
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Apologies if this has already been covered but have their been theories on how Mike cheated on the 09/21/19 stream for the $10/$25/$50 game against Berkey (YouTube Link)? He doesn't appear to have the bulge in his cap for the bone-conducting headphones and he never looks down at this phone during the session.

I was thinking maybe he might use a pocket signalling/vibrating device instead because phones were banned for this session and he probably knew the higher stakes game would have keen eyes so he couldn't wear his bone-conducting headphones. So I scanned the video for every time Mike got up and walked away or to the table. He only did that a few times and then I found this in his back pocket at 3:29:53 into the stream (sharpened/enhanced, zoomed 2x and slowed down to 15%):

Video: https://streamable.com/8y3uc

Still frame from above video:


Btw this is not his phone - I can see that in his front pocket a few frames ahead of this.

Last edited by pocket_zeros; 10-15-2019 at 01:46 AM.
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Old 10-15-2019, 01:38 AM   #8494
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Johnnyreno View Post
I am enjoying all the original material emanating from this scandal. From the poker shirt that says, Crotch Optimal Theory to someone who videotaped their 5 yo kid trashing MP. Funny. Even the music video of the dude that dressed like MP in his kitchen....omg.....

Just when poker was starting to be a grind!

I’m hearing a movie in the works already. Omg..
Clearly the lawsuit will be settled and everyone of the 20+ something plaintiffs will get a minimum $150k after attorney fees (take the money).

Only problem as I see it -there are two dudes not happy in this story....maybe a third. Jail time and life long garnishing of wages.

Hint: First guy that flips gets the best deal!
You're gonna wear a T-shirt that says COT, when the joke is CTO. You might wanna rethink that.
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Old 10-15-2019, 01:54 AM   #8495
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by slowlane123 View Post
You are kidding yourself if you think his lawyer is anything but an absolute beast. He is one of the most highly decorated gambling/technology lawyers in the the US, maybe even the world.

I would argue there is probably not a single person on the planet who has a better chance at getting Mike off this than this guy and I want Mike to lose as much as anyone.
May be a dumb question but how the hell could Postle afford a lawyer like this?
Someone else paying for it?
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Old 10-15-2019, 02:15 AM   #8496
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Grind On My Mind View Post
Nice video. There were a couple hands i didnt ever see before and ive watched a ton of footage! Good work
#4 Justin rubbing his nose way often, could explain his delusional commentary.
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Old 10-15-2019, 02:21 AM   #8497
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Well, here's a Chinese site that has about a zillion poker (and other) cheating devices for sale, electronic & otherwise. It's mind boggling.

http://www.xfpokercheat.com/buy-poke...g_devices.html

In the great "poker is rigged debate" thread, the many non-riggies there make some pretty good arguments against the game being rigged in general. But sites like the one above suggests that some segments of both the online and casino poker world are surely being compromised. What % that might be, I have no idea.

I guess I'll keep trusting our local casinos. But considering the above, I won't ever play for anything above maybe .25/.50 in any home, club or underground game anymore - almost no matter what.

Given a way to do so, cheaters are gonna cheat sooner or later 100% of the time. And there are clearly a lot of ways to "do so" out there that are all-too-easy to come by.
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Old 10-15-2019, 02:30 AM   #8498
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

has anybody been to the Stones poker room in the last week? who is running it now? what is the employment status of the two Justins? is there less traffic than usual?
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Old 10-15-2019, 02:55 AM   #8499
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by rallydurham View Post
You have this completely backwards. Winning money isnt a crime. This isnt gonna be held in the court of public opinion. The chances of mike going down because he "won too often" are practically zero. They're gonna need proof and the only people who seem to have any are gonna keep their mouth shut if they have any sense at all
What are you talking about dude. Genuine nonsense, every word of this.
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Old 10-15-2019, 04:46 AM   #8500
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by pocket_zeros View Post
I've been examining the 04-01-19 stream. I've established that after he finishes tapping a text in iMessage he usually presses the upper-left corner of the screen, which for iMessage returns you back to the list of conversations. I've also found instances where he presses the upper-left corner of the screen from the home page esp just before lowering the phone back into his lap. I was able to capture a frame of his home-screen app icons - after enhancing the color/contrast of that frame the upper-left icon on his home-screen appears green. I need some crowd-source help here to help identify all the possible iPhone apps that have a green icon. The first that comes to mind is Whatsapp. Here's the enhanced grab:

I really doubt he's going to have the CTO app on the home screen.

If he didn't go through the effort of creating a hidden/dummy app, he'd at least stick it in a folder.
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