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Old 10-13-2019, 11:55 PM   #8326
Xenicide
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by crotch_lawyer View Post
5. Commentators reactions are unreasonable

Yes. But that's expected.
As Veronica discussed during her live stream with D Polk, the commentators were asked to not criticize anyone/any hand. It was a promotion.
She also said that while Justin could be commentating in an unreasonable way, there is an "equally good chance he did not know **** about poker".
Are lines like this "expected" ?
https://youtu.be/oOxc4qbQiLo?t=10428

https://youtu.be/oOxc4qbQiLo?t=10681

Here is another.

Last edited by Xenicide; 10-14-2019 at 12:01 AM.
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Old 10-13-2019, 11:57 PM   #8327
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

it's true it may not be strong enough evidence for a jury, but for an experienced poker player this is pretty obvious that he was cheating
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:04 AM   #8328
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by vikcch View Post
I tracked down one session of Veronica's game, 2018-12-15, they played 80 hands and the total amount of straddles was $3591. Some were really big, $750 and $420 that i recall
Quote:
Originally Posted by IQofTwoPlusTwo View Post
Here is a really easy quiz. See if you can pass it.

In a 1/3 game with a $45 straddle, one player will post a small blind of $1. The next player will post a big blind of $3. Some other player will straddle for $45.

Okay here comes the hard part.

For player that posts the big blind, what is the amount of the big blind? When you express something in big blind units instead of dollars, what unit size should you use if you are going to call that unit measurement "big blinds"?

Get together with your friends and see if you can come up with an answer.
So if you are the self-anointed analytics expert; why is bb per 100 considered a meaningful win rate metric? It may seem like a silly question to you, but imagine a jury trying to comprehend bb per 100; do you believe it's not conceivable that a jury or juror would question why a $3 baseline is used if in fact the game does play higher? Using the previous example of $45 average straddle per hand, a hypothetical $3000 session profit converted into a bb per metric is greatly influenced by using stated bb vs an "effective" bb vs a "normalized" bb. In my opinion it's a worth consideration as it certainly can be used to confuse a jury. But hey; since your answer really boils down to "this is how it's done so that's how it's done" you could've just said so
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:15 AM   #8329
jal300
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
sweet, looking forward to it!




At 1/3, the bb is 3. If it gets bumped up to 1/3/5 with a mandatory straddle or 3rd blind, then the bb is 5. If the straddle isn't mandatory, as in someone's just doing a one off, I wouldn't count it. You're not forced to put in that blind bet yourself so you're basically just getting a free roll for more action. If you're a winning player, it could inflate your winnings a bit but over a big enough sample, I'd assume it wouldn't make a difference since you'll just be folding most of the time anyway. I mean, how often are they doing huge 9x+ straddles and is it mandatory?
I can't say how often; but using the example I quoted it got me thinking: that session averaged a 15bb straddle per hand. Granted that average was highly influenced by a couple of very large straddles: stuff like that might confuse a juror/jury is what I was thinking. In other words; defense can challenge the validity of X bb per 100 winrate if the baseline is arbitrarily $3 when it can be argued/demonstrated that "effective bb" or "normalized bb" is magnitudes higher than $3: granted I'm just using this one session, I don't know if the amount of straddles in the other sessions are this extreme.
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:20 AM   #8330
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jal300 View Post
why is bb per 100 considered a meaningful win rate metric?
bb per 100 isn't a meaningful metric. It only has meaning when you use it as a tool to compare it with something else.
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:31 AM   #8331
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Turdzilla View Post
Has anyone summarized the frequency of players in Postle's game? I wonder if friends were warned to not play hands with him. You look at the second-place horse in a fixed race.
He even cheated his friends along with someone who was dying of cancer. Veronica was a friend, Frank the Tank was a friend ... but I'm sure Mike felt really bad about that for a few brief moments.
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:34 AM   #8332
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jal300 View Post
I can't say how often; but using the example I quoted it got me thinking: that session averaged a 15bb straddle per hand. Granted that average was highly influenced by a couple of very large straddles: stuff like that might confuse a juror/jury is what I was thinking. In other words; defense can challenge the validity of X bb per 100 winrate if the baseline is arbitrarily $3 when it can be argued/demonstrated that "effective bb" or "normalized bb" is magnitudes higher than $3: granted I'm just using this one session, I don't know if the amount of straddles in the other sessions are this extreme.
None of that would be even a minor focus in any trial. You guys are way over thinking how a trial would play out and the minutia and terms matter so, so little.
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:35 AM   #8333
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly View Post
It's really bizarre that Postle is shown as having the Ad twice, but only for one or two frames of the video. (It's hard to spot even at 0.25x speed).
It seems highly likely that there was an RFID error (why on earth would the opponent fold AAT9ds pre?) but I'm not sure what to make of it. Did the graphics mess up on the previous hand too? Btw, when the commentators discuss the ridiculous fold, I think that's Taylor's voice coming from the peek room booth. (It's also a God mode session according to a couple of PLO experts).
I was looking more this episode and there are lot of hands, where the graphics messed up. Also on the previous hand. Most of them are alike my previous post (#7820). I found also few little different errors:






This Postle's cap pic is definitely my favorite.


After looking this more I guess the RFID is working fine, but there is an error how they display cards/player icons on the broadcast. I think he just folded AAT9ds, didn't want to "gamble" the last hand.
"He's racking up, didn't wanna play" (?)
https://youtu.be/hcuBlBV0kRU?t=8224
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:46 AM   #8334
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by IQofTwoPlusTwo View Post
bb per 100 isn't a meaningful metric. It only has meaning when you use it as a tool to compare it with something else.
You don't want to take a stab at the other question I posed to you in my response: is it not conceivable that a jury or juror would question why a $3 baseline is used if in fact the game does play higher? Put another way; granted I'm using one single session as an example, if that session had an average 15bb straddle per hand ($45), is it not possible a juror might possibly think using $3 as a baseline overstates a win rate? A juror might think bb per 100 using $3 as a baseline might be construed as being "rather selective", kind of like you selectively chopping up my response to you to answer one question and ignore the other

Sorry mate if you think I'm picking on you; quite frankly, your original response showed you like to "dish it out"; which of course means you should be happy to take it as well
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:50 AM   #8335
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post

None of that would be even a minor focus in any trial. You guys are way over thinking how a trial would play out and the minutia and terms matter so, so little.
LOL this made me think of Officer Obie looking at his twenty seven eight-by-ten color glossy pictures with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one and then looking at the Judge's seeing eye dog.

Quote:
is it not conceivable that a jury or juror would question why a $3 baseline is used if in fact the game does play higher?
No, I don't think that is conceivable at all. In fact, I don't think "per 100 hands", "straddle", or even trying to put dollar amounts in terms of "big blinds" would be used at all.
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:50 AM   #8336
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post


None of that would be even a minor focus in any trial. You guys are way over thinking how a trial would play out and the minutia and terms matter so, so little.
Maybe. But if one side splashes the "900bb/100" or whatever the going winrate has been estimated to be; I think it would be defense counsels job to create some doubt as to it's validity. I'm merely speculating what a juror might think, you're merely speculating that this doesn't matter - we're all just speculating, quite frankly there's nothing really wrong with that.
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Old 10-14-2019, 01:00 AM   #8337
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jal300 View Post
Maybe. But if one side splashes the "900bb/100" or whatever the going winrate has been estimated to be; I think it would be defense counsels job to create some doubt as to it's validity. I'm merely speculating what a juror might think, you're merely speculating that this doesn't matter - we're all just speculating, quite frankly there's nothing really wrong with that.
I mean, you're not too far off. You understand a jury doesn't have a frame of reference on poker terms. That is why that would never be the focus of any case.

The game playing bigger with straddles definitely did inflate his winrate while not affecting his variance like it would a normal player because he is super using. Just insanely scummy to get a game to play bigger while cheating. I really hope people didnt have losses and downswings from Mike that financially made a difference to anyone.

What people also didnt mention when this thread was in trainwreck mode is that his winrate is also inflated because he lost the minimum in so many hands. It's not just hands he won, but many other hands he should have lost another bet or an entire stack.
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Old 10-14-2019, 01:05 AM   #8338
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jal300 View Post
Maybe. But if one side splashes the "900bb/100" or whatever the going winrate has been estimated to be; I think it would be defense counsels job to create some doubt as to it's validity. I'm merely speculating what a juror might think, you're merely speculating that this doesn't matter - we're all just speculating, quite frankly there's nothing really wrong with that.
Assuming competent lawyers, I would think they would say and use terms like "won over two hundred thousand dollars" and "winning between nine hundred and one thousand dollars an hour" and "on average winning over ten thousand dollars per night" and then accusing the defense counsel of trying to confuse the jury using nonsense terms like "big blinds" and "straddles" and lying statistical stuff when everybody knows that "a hundred thousand dollars" ain't no small stakes friendly poker game entertainment.
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Old 10-14-2019, 01:58 AM   #8339
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by crotch_lawyer View Post
Playing devil's advocate: Here's a case for Mike Postle Innocence (or not guilty for that matter).

Most of the arguments so far are based on evidence of abnormal behavior.
However, anomalies should be compared against a control group (or NULL model) to be a piece of proper evidence, statistically speaking.
For instance, have we checked how Mike Postle behaves when he is NOT playing?
Have we checked how the commentators speak, when Mike Postle is NOT playing? etc

I will list some of the most discussed arguments used so far and discuss plausible reasons against them.

1. "Postle looks at his crotch frequently and unreasonably"

Possible explanation: He is simply watching the delayed stream to pick on other players' frequencies and aggression.
While he keeps looking at his crotch frequently while he's playing, have we checked how frequently does he look at his crotch while he's NOT playing?
We need to check whether there is a statistically significant difference between the distributions of "look in the crotch" event when he is playing and when he is NOT playing.

2. GFX Poker Software and the "Blue Screen"

Berky showed a demo of GFX, a poker streamming software.
He showed that one could watch the live stream by simply knowing the IP of the host computer.
The screen of this software is a bright blue screen.
There's a video showing Mike Postle with his cellphone with a very similar blue screen.
That's very circumstantial evidence as Berky himself during a live stream with D Polk confirmed that he does not have knowledge on whether Stones used the same software and if that's not the case all his demonstration could be invalid.
Moreover, you can simply search "cellphone blue screen of death" on Google and you will find several situations where a cellphone could display such a bright screen background.

3. The hand AK AK 45 with MoneyMaker

Mike Postle went all-in pre-flop with 45 (I believe) against AK and AK.
They ran the hand twice and Mike Postle won the second run, hence making a profit.
During the Mike The Mouth podcast, he said that after he won, he actually told the other players that they could take their pots back.
Why would he be cheating if in the end he actually allowed the other players to take their shares of the pot back?
We should watch the stream again and check whether Mike Postle is lying here.

4. Total WInnings are unreasonably high

It's already known that the spreadsheet shared cannot be trusted and has wrong data.
Joe Ingram is now trying to run proper statistics in a herculean task as we speak.

5. Commentators reactions are unreasonable

Yes. But that's expected.
As Veronica discussed during her live stream with D Polk, the commentators were asked to not criticize anyone/any hand. It was a promotion.
She also said that while Justin could be commentating in an unreasonable way, there is an "equally good chance he did not know **** about poker".

6. He wins a lot and on very unlikely spots

That's not always the case.
There has been an emphasis on hands where Mike Postle won in very unlikely spots.
Have we accurately evaluated the hands that he lost?
The more we watch the streams the more off-God situations are found. But then we try to find attributes to "explain" why he was not cheating on the hands that he loses.
First, it's said that he didn't play well when Justin is not there.
Then, it's said that he does play well PLO, because one needs more time to read the cards and PLO has more tight odds.
And then there is the chair, and the camera position, and the keys and a hidden object and then the hat etc etc.

One could argue that: Mike Postle is betting a lot. And when he loses we find an attribute that "explains" why he's off-God. That's called overfitting in statistics and also bias, as we are overfitting the belief that he is cheating.

The hypothesis: "Mike Postle was cheating" can only be tested when all the hands and accurately documented.
Until then, looking at crazy hands in a $1/$3 game is just not strong evidence.

PS.: Kudos to the community which is putting a lot of effort into this. I do not want to take anything away from the massive job done so far. This is just an exercise to help this investigation and people's lives and careers are on the line here.
We've been dealing with posts like this all day so let me ask you some questions

1. Why would Veronica, Casey, and several players accuse MP of cheating?
2. Why is he pretending to look at his cards but glancing down at his crotch?
3. Why would Justin pretend to do an investigation 2 times?
4. Why would Justin lie to Berkey about why they banned phones?
5. How does he win big in 94% of the streams hes in?
6. How do you explain all the hands that he max exploits where it doesnt make sense to according to his play style?
7. How does he win so consistently with such a high vpip?
8. How would the graphics change during the 86o hand?
9. How is he so accurate with his bluffs?
10. Why is he unable to coherently explain his hands during interviews?
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Old 10-14-2019, 02:41 AM   #8340
rileymadison2345
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
We've been dealing with posts like this all day so let me ask you some questions



1. Why would Veronica, Casey, and several players accuse MP of cheating?

2. Why is he pretending to look at his cards but glancing down at his crotch?

3. Why would Justin pretend to do an investigation 2 times?

4. Why would Justin lie to Berkey about why they banned phones?

5. How does he win big in 94% of the streams hes in?

6. How do you explain all the hands that he max exploits where it doesnt make sense to according to his play style?

7. How does he win so consistently with such a high vpip?

8. How would the graphics change during the 86o hand?

9. How is he so accurate with his bluffs?

10. Why is he unable to coherently explain his hands during interviews?
These are the questions Matusow should have asked

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
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Old 10-14-2019, 03:41 AM   #8341
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Guys, it's pretty simple.

MP is either:

-- the best player ever

- managed to have an astronomical winrate calling 4bets with cards like 95o / 54o pre flop
- perfect play post flop (especially on the river)
- soulread his opponents without even looking at them!
- lost the minimum on every cooler and bet the perfect amount for value
- invented CTO

-- or... he is just cheating.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor
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Old 10-14-2019, 04:07 AM   #8342
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jal300 View Post
You don't want to take a stab at the other question I posed to you in my response: is it not conceivable that a jury or juror would question why a $3 baseline is used if in fact the game does play higher? Put another way; granted I'm using one single session as an example, if that session had an average 15bb straddle per hand ($45), is it not possible a juror might possibly think using $3 as a baseline overstates a win rate? A juror might think bb per 100 using $3 as a baseline might be construed as being "rather selective", kind of like you selectively chopping up my response to you to answer one question and ignore the other

Sorry mate if you think I'm picking on you; quite frankly, your original response showed you like to "dish it out"; which of course means you should be happy to take it as well
It’s not a mandatory straddle so bb is still 3. The oversized strattles just like a blind bet last to act that bloats the pot and helps him win more. a game
With loose players willing to startle money for players to steal or wake up with something. Maybe the Stratlers were in on it 🤔
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Old 10-14-2019, 04:31 AM   #8343
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Once this goes to court does Mike Postle double down and just continually look at his crotch to pretend it is an odd habit he has.

Could be a hat tip to George Costanza's "involuntary elbow spasm" on Seinfeld.
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Old 10-14-2019, 04:32 AM   #8344
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I've really enjoyed following this story and I'd love to devour more content.

Joey, is it possible to be less annoying during your videos so we can watch them. Appreciate all your hard work but I cant listen to you for more than 30-45 seconds before I have to change the channel. You just repeat yourself over and over with like a nervous tic or something without really ever saying anything...
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Old 10-14-2019, 04:34 AM   #8345
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by IIdonkeyfishII View Post
It’s not a mandatory straddle so bb is still 3. The oversized strattles just like a blind bet last to act that bloats the pot and helps him win more. a game
With loose players willing to startle money for players to steal or wake up with something. Maybe the Stratlers were in on it ��
That's interesting. Assume the following two games:

Game A: Stakes are 1/3/45 and session lasts 80 hands.

Game B: Stakes are 1/3 and session lasts 80 hands. This game saw tons of straddles that averaged $45 per hand.

Dick profits $3000 in game A and Jane profits $3000 in game B. Yet their win rates would be different because one was a $45 must straddle and the other just happened to work out to an average $45 per hand straddle based on "straddle if you want" rule. Two games that (arguably) played equally "big" with different arbitrary win rates, of course assuming winrate is expressed in bb per metric. That's something that just might confuse a juror.

Last edited by jal300; 10-14-2019 at 04:40 AM.
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Old 10-14-2019, 04:42 AM   #8346
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly View Post
It was advertised as such. It's one where they all wear Christmas outfits, and god mode was in operation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_Dza9Z8LMo
The Hand History log file of that session is in the descripton of this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0lWjgW0H1Q
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Old 10-14-2019, 04:45 AM   #8347
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I played one hand against mike postle and made a sick call on the river against his check raise.

I'll never forget the way he dismissed me and said "I could had Trup Queens you moron!"

Serves you right Mike. Now whose the moron?
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Old 10-14-2019, 04:50 AM   #8348
jal300
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by vikcch View Post
The Hand History log file of that session is in the descripton of this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0lWjgW0H1Q
That's awesome!
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Old 10-14-2019, 05:06 AM   #8349
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by rallydurham View Post
I played one hand against mike postle and made a sick call on the river against his check raise.

I'll never forget the way he dismissed me and said "I could had Trup Queens you moron!"

Serves you right Mike. Now whose the moron?
Was this on stones live stream?
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Old 10-14-2019, 05:15 AM   #8350
Jay Why
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

What would make the allegations much clearer is to have graphs of his chip progression over each of his individual sessions, as with most players their chip stacks rise and all over a session, as they win and lose big hands, but his chip stacks for each session would show identical profiles, constantly upwards, as he played small pots when he lost as he folded or checked when he was behind, so lost small pots, and he bet when he was ahead, so won bigger pots, so the graphs would show this impossible constant upward swing over 14 months very clearly. (The ones when JFK is away will stand out all the more clearly).
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