Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

News, Views, and Gossip For poker news, views and gossip.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-13-2019, 11:30 AM   #8126
tul6700
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
Yep.

For sure you ran good if you win 100k$+ in those games. Don't think his yearly is like 1M$+ playing quite low live cash. Most he plays if I understand it correctly is off stream tourneys and cash.
No no no no no no. You had said before that you can win 900bb/100 at 1/3 with skill, I dismantled that arguement and I am going to repost it because you don't seem to have an understanding of mathematics or poker in general.

Poker is a game that has small edges, it's not like chess where you control every decision. When you are talking about win-rates, you need to understand that skill can only take you so far in a game like poker. In a game like chess you could theoretically win 99% of your games if you are the best chess player in the world.

When you are talking about win-rates in poker you must understand that there is a ceiling effect in poker, what does that mean? It means that no matter how good you are, your win-rate will get stunted, it's not like chess where you can win 99% of the time, what does this have to do with mike postles win-rate? EVERYTHING, you can't achieve 900bb/100 at 1/3 2/5 with just simply skill, no matter how good you are "because of the ceiling effect that exist in poker", you can't achieve his win-rate with pure skill, you need to also run hotter then the sun to achieve his win-rate.

Stop thinking you know it all!

So now your saying mike postle just ran hot? Before this is not what you said. Also, im not even going to bring up the fact that you thought a 63% VPIP at 1/3 with a 900bb/100 is not suspicious.....LULZ
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:33 AM   #8127
whosnext
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
whosnext's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: California
Posts: 6,372
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
My main point is that it is not at all that uncommon even for breakeven player to have results Postle have. Ok over all stakes probability for such results are higher if you are at least somewhat winning player. And that who claim otherwise either do not understand game they are playing, or don't understand statistics.

I have master's degree from theoretical physics, so could be easily be my bias that I don't understand how mathematically illiterate most people even in poker are.

I just logged in and have reviewed your posts since coming back from your temp-ban.

Posts bashing mods or 2+2 are not allowed in this thread. Any more of them and the posts will be deleted and you will be perma-banned.

Posts defending Postle or questioning the cheating allegations are totally appropriate in this thread as long as they are based on some reality or valid reasoning. Just as baseless allegations are not allowed, baseless "defending" is also not allowed.

If your posts are simply baseless ramblings, they will be deleted and you will be perma-banned.
whosnext is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:34 AM   #8128
Olswang
newbie
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 37
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by IQofTwoPlusTwo View Post
What if I told you that the exact win rate doesn't matter?

a) The dramatic change in behavior July 18th that coincided with a dramatic change in results.

b) Numerous occasions where Postle prompted other players to rescan their cards as if he knew the live feed had not picked them up.

c) The visible frustration of the PLO hand were the live feed was only picking up two cards.

d) The changing of the cards hand. How did anyone know the cards of mucked unseen hand were wrong in the middle of the hand?

e) The ability to shove when the opponent was weak, fold when strong time after time after time never getting caught with his hand in the cookie jar.

f) Almost identical hands played completely differently when the opponent was strong versus when they were weak. Example after Example. Never wrong.

g) The strange staring at the crotch, phone off the table behaviors, never exhibited in previous losing sessions.

h) The booth interview where he seemingly knows when and where the live stream cut off and came back on.

Notice not one single bit of these pieces of evidence have the slightest thing to do with exactly how much he won, how often he reloaded, did he rebuy, how much he added on, how much is exact win rate was, or if he tipped the waitress or not.

Doing all of the above, it doesn't even matter if he lost money overall, it doesn't matter what his exact to 6 decimal places win rate was, these all indicate that he was aware of the live stream in real time. He cheated.
All the above is important circumstantial evidence. However the purpose of the civil suit is to seek financial restitution for the victims, to make them whole. It is essential therefore that accurate measurement of victim losses is calculated - and that really won't be all that easy as explained by others ITT. If there were no losses then there would be no civil suit.
Olswang is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:38 AM   #8129
PassiveIsBetter
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 318
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
With his playing style, you can not be a winning player, reach or exceed 10bb/100, let alone win a godly 94% of your sessions over such a long period.
Pretty easy math problem to solve what is the probability to win 94% of the time over x session of play.

You can vary what is the probability you have a winning session. For professional poker player it can easily be, that expectation is that 75% of the times you play 5 hour live poker you book a win.

So answer: not that uncommon over small sample size.

Every spin and sit & go players know how long you can either run superhot or then cold. Not need to even play. Just do some simulations.
PassiveIsBetter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:45 AM   #8130
IQofTwoPlusTwo
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 492
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
Pretty easy math problem to solve what is the probability to win 94% of the time over x session of play.

You can vary what is the probability you have a winning session. For professional poker player it can easily be, that expectation is that 75% of the times you play 5 hour live poker you book a win.

So answer: not that uncommon over small sample size.

Since it is not that uncommon show that sample of a professional poker player winning 90% of his sessions.
IQofTwoPlusTwo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:45 AM   #8131
PassiveIsBetter
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 318
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by IQofTwoPlusTwo View Post
Since it is not that uncommon show that sample of a professional poker player winning 90% of his sessions.
Over how many sessions?
PassiveIsBetter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:51 AM   #8132
Dick Tracy
old hand
 
Dick Tracy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Mid-West
Posts: 1,413
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

It's interesting to me that the Stu Unger cheating theory involves "cobalt blue lenses" (allegedly used to see magic ink) and the Mike Postle cheating theory involves a cobalt blue smartphone screen.
Dick Tracy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:51 AM   #8133
pocket_zeros
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,530
Re: Mike Postle Blue screen New pics !??

Quote:
Originally Posted by wtfdidido View Post
Not this **** again... His glasses are blue and you can even see Harlan looking at Mike's phone (27:40 to 27:47).
If his glasses were blue they wouldn't reflect the white lights above him as white, which they do. And when he handed Harlan the phone he switched away from his blue screen. Both of these are demonstrated in my post 6680:

pocket_zeros is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:52 AM   #8134
IQofTwoPlusTwo
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 492
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
Over how many sessions?
Oh, say a small sample like 200. Show me the player who has won 180 out of 200 cash game sessions (session being 5 hours or more of play). Just one, since it is not that uncommon.
IQofTwoPlusTwo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:52 AM   #8135
wiiziwiig
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,407
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
Those files are not at all to be trusted.

Happens all the time in live streams that all in situation player have like 30% bigger stack that what is shown in screen.
Debatable, depends on what you are using the data for.

I love your self-serving strawman arguments. "Postles chips are over reported" when its convenient, then saying "All ins have 30% bigger stacks so the data cant be trusted".

But you're right, I've seen plenty of all-ins stacks that were under reported, which is in line with anecdotal evidence of chipping up without telling the dealer. So in most cases, you'd expect chips to be underreported. Mb the graphics team corrects it after all-in situations, would have to look into that or talk to a reg or dealer at Stones Live to figure out their protocol. But Id imagine there could be under reporting as much as there was over reporting of his stack size.
wiiziwiig is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:56 AM   #8136
washoe
veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 2,647
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by IQofTwoPlusTwo View Post
Since it is not that uncommon show that sample of a professional poker player winning 90% of his sessions.
Stu ungar won the wsop back to back. How do you explain this?!

in cash games he was constantly moving chips, and let me tell u he didnt have aces all the times. one can argue he won 70% of his sessions, idk

He had a vpip of what? maybe 60% 70% in cash games. and was runnning everyone over. because he played the people not the cards.

annette15, was playing a mtt without looking at her cards, and won. u can play the people not the cards.
washoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:56 AM   #8137
IQofTwoPlusTwo
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 492
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Olswang View Post
All the above is important circumstantial evidence. However the purpose of the civil suit is to seek financial restitution for the victims, to make them whole. It is essential therefore that accurate measurement of victim losses is calculated - and that really won't be all that easy as explained by others ITT. If there were no losses then there would be no civil suit.
Not really. Once the court decides that cheating/fraud took place it is up to them to award damages. You don't need a cross checked double footed CPA certified quantified exact accounting to 6 decimal places of the actual damages.

The court can make its award given the information presented.
IQofTwoPlusTwo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:58 AM   #8138
washoe
veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 2,647
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Tracy View Post
It's interesting to me that the Stu Unger cheating theory involves "cobalt blue lenses" (allegedly used to see magic ink) and the Mike Postle cheating theory involves a cobalt blue smartphone screen.
are u saying stuey won the main event with the help of his blue glasses?
washoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:59 AM   #8139
IQofTwoPlusTwo
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 492
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe View Post
Stu ungar won the wsop back to back. How do you explain this?!

in cash games he was constantly moving chips, and let me tell u he didnt have aces all the times. one can argue he won 70% of his sessions, idk

He had a vpip of what? maybe 60% 70% in cash games. and was runnning everyone over. because he played the people not the cards.

annette15, was playing a mtt without looking at her cards, and won. u can play the people not the cards.
In a similar note, Ted Williams had a career .344 batting average, 521 home runs, and a .482 on-base percentage.

Show me the cash game player that has won 180 of his last 200 sessions (a session being defined as around 5 hours in length). I am told that it is not all that uncommon so it should be easy to find one.
IQofTwoPlusTwo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 11:59 AM   #8140
Dick Tracy
old hand
 
Dick Tracy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Mid-West
Posts: 1,413
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe View Post
are u saying stuey won the main event with the help of his blue glasses?
I'm saying that it's a theory that exists.
Dick Tracy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 12:02 PM   #8141
tul6700
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe View Post
Stu ungar won the wsop back to back. How do you explain this?!

in cash games he was constantly moving chips, and let me tell u he didnt have aces all the times. one can argue he won 70% of his sessions, idk

He had a vpip of what? maybe 60% 70% in cash games. and was runnning everyone over. because he played the people not the cards.

annette15, was playing a mtt without looking at her cards, and won. u can play the people not the cards.
These are inaccurate analogies, annette15 winning a mtt wothout looking at her cards literally means nothing, I don't think you have a strong understanding of mathematics. Also, stu ungar winning BTB is still mathematically low, but it is not as low as winning 900bb/100 with a VPIP of 63% over 300 hourse at 1/3. The individual above is asking for longer sample sizes.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 12:02 PM   #8142
kiddo1987
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 144
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe View Post
Stu ungar won the wsop back to back. How do you explain this?!

in cash games he was constantly moving chips, and let me tell u he didnt have aces all the times. one can argue he won 70% of his sessions, idk

He had a vpip of what? maybe 60% 70% in cash games. and was runnning everyone over. because he played the people not the cards.

annette15, was playing a mtt without looking at her cards, and won. u can play the people not the cards.
Could Stu have done that completely disengaged from the table staring at crotch though? Mikes on another level almost clairvoyant.
kiddo1987 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 12:04 PM   #8143
mcb08
grinder
 
mcb08's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Not where u think I am
Posts: 434
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe View Post
Stu ungar won the wsop back to back. How do you explain this?!



in cash games he was constantly moving chips, and let me tell u he didnt have aces all the times. one can argue he won 70% of his sessions, idk



He had a vpip of what? maybe 60% 70% in cash games. and was runnning everyone over. because he played the people not the cards.



annette15, was playing a mtt without looking at her cards, and won. u can play the people not the cards.
Has anyone checked Postle's genealogy to see if he's related to Ungar?
mcb08 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 12:04 PM   #8144
TwitchySeal
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 331
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Please ignore the idiot ruining this thread. He's clearly not capable of a rational conversation and going through pages of nonsense to find quality content is a pain.
TwitchySeal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 12:05 PM   #8145
wtfdidido
banned
 
wtfdidido's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: ZOG's clownworld
Posts: 135
Re: Mike Postle Blue screen New pics !??

Quote:
Originally Posted by pocket_zeros View Post
If his glasses were blue they wouldn't reflect the white lights above him as white, which they do. And when he handed Harlan the phone he switched away from his blue screen. Both of these are demonstrated in my post 6680:

There is no delay between Harlan looking at the phone and Mike showing a white screen. You are assuming he switched but can't prove it.

https://youtu.be/nUr3WeFDHZM?t=27m41s
wtfdidido is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 12:08 PM   #8146
washoe
veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 2,647
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by IQofTwoPlusTwo View Post
In a similar note, Ted Williams had a career .344 batting average, 521 home runs, and a .482 on-base percentage.

Show me the cash game player that has won 180 of his last 200 sessions (a session being defined as around 5 hours in length). I am told that it is not all that uncommon so it should be easy to find one.
oooook what about:

jonny chan

archi karas, "the run" or however they called it , who ran 10k into what 17 million ?

phil ivey

dwan

etc..
washoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 12:11 PM   #8147
PassiveIsBetter
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 318
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by IQofTwoPlusTwo View Post
Show me the cash game player that has won 180 of his last 200 sessions (a session being defined as around 5 hours in length). I am told that it is not all that uncommon so it should be easy to find one.
Most probably some in this forum have had results like that. Not that uncommon. Even more common if your style is such that you book small wins over big win or big loss.

If you book win 190 or more times over 200 then it is not that common. Or you should have huge edge.
PassiveIsBetter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 12:13 PM   #8148
pocket_zeros
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,530
Re: Mike Postle Blue screen New pics !??

Quote:
Originally Posted by wtfdidido View Post
There is no delay between Harlan looking at the phone and Mike showing a white screen. You are assuming he switched but can't prove it.

https://youtu.be/nUr3WeFDHZM?t=27m41s
There are a few seconds between the screen reflecting blue on Mike's glasses until he turns the phone to Harlan. The proof of him switching is in the screen visibly changing colors between those two events. You can see the delay in both my video which is slowed down to 25% and in the real-time video I took it from and which you just linked. Most of the delay is in the cross-dissolve between camera angles.
pocket_zeros is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 12:14 PM   #8149
lawdude
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 10,305
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xenoblade View Post
i think the bet/call/fold frequency on each street would be the most important as it seems this is where he is deviating the most from “correct” play and well preflop but we already know he’s vpip 60%
Donking turns and rivers is a good stat. You watch. He rarely donks turns or rivers outside of God mode. In God mode, he does it all the time (and, of course, mostly when he has fold equity).
lawdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2019, 12:19 PM   #8150
IQofTwoPlusTwo
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 492
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
Most probably some in this forum have had results like that. Not that uncommon.
Still waiting. Just one. Incredibly easy to find one since it is not that uncommon.
IQofTwoPlusTwo is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:53 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive