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Old 10-12-2019, 06:20 PM   #7926
tul6700
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by SimpleRick View Post
Yeah that's a good point. And those are just the addons that are caught on camera. His winnings are definitely inflated. Maybe even Mike Postle's number of 125k is more accurate.
If mike only won 125k people need to know this, I thought it was universally accepted that the 900bb/100 # was correct?
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:21 PM   #7927
IIdonkeyfishII
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by washoe View Post
Its a 5 hour video, you need to say when bro
At the end 4:22
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:25 PM   #7928
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by washoe View Post
Its a 5 hour video, you need to say when bro
4:23:37
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:25 PM   #7929
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
I think that's too pessimistic.

Under Nelson v. Reisner, when the nature of the defendant's wrongdoing makes damages difficult to calculate, any reasonable non-speculative estimate is admissible and will stand up on appeal. The amount of Postle's winnings is almost certainly close enough for the Nelson case.
I mean I don't think the defense gets a directed verdict on the issue or anything. But getting the jury interrogatories right in anticipation of the inevitable challenge on appeal would be pretty important were this to go to trial. Absent those it will be pretty easy to argue that 100% of profits was not a reasonable estimate of damages but merely a number that 'seemed fair' which is the difference between passing muster under Nelson or not.
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:29 PM   #7930
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by atenesq View Post
I mean I don't think the defense gets a directed verdict on the issue or anything. But getting the jury interrogatories right in anticipation of the inevitable challenge on appeal would be pretty important were this to go to trial. Absent those it will be pretty easy to argue that 100% of profits was not a reasonable estimate of damages but merely a number that 'seemed fair' which is the difference between passing muster under Nelson or not.
Nelson is a sliding scale. The more difficult the defendant's conduct renders the computation of damages, the more latitude the plaintiff gets in estimating damages.

In this situation, there's just no getting around the profits being the only available reasonable estimate of the damages. And profits are OFTEN allowed as estimates of damages (e.g., look at trademark cases; literally happens all the time). I think it's a rather straightforward application of Nelson.
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:30 PM   #7931
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
I can't imagine the civil suit getting to trial, but if it did, the plaintiff has the burden of proof, even in a civil trial. The plaintiff has to provide a non-speculative estimate of damages. The defense, on the other hand, just has to poke holes in whatever damages theory the plaintiff offers. The jury has wide latitude to set damages, as long as the theory is articulable and not speculative.

So Verstandig et al. will need to have decently accurate numbers of Postle's winnings. They don't have to be accurate to the dollar. Just reasonable estimates.

The defense lawyers will offer various explanations as to why the numbers are unreliable, such as the rebuy theory. And the jury can choose any number that is a reasonable estimate and supported by the evidence, or they could (they won't, but they could) decide that the Plaintiffs didn't prove their damages at all and award nominal damages ($1 per plaintiff).
Quote:
Originally Posted by atenesq View Post
Cheating is easy to prove. Establishing with any reasonable degree of precision the amount of plaintiffs' damages proximately caused by the cheating is very hard. 100% of winnings is a reasonable approximation as the guy is from all appearances a total moron, but a reasonable approximation is all it is. Anecdotally he's a winning player so maybe it's less. Empirically it's 1/3 so maybe it's more.
gotcha, makes sense. thanks guys.
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:30 PM   #7932
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by IIdonkeyfishII View Post
https://youtu.be/_dFzke6mn0M
Check this.... He knows the camera blanks and comes back on during replay....
And commentator tries to cover....
4:23:37
wow

"This is about when the camera pops back up" - Mike

"Eeerm hello?" - Commentator

*quickly change subject*
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:36 PM   #7933
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
Yea you raise a good point. But the fact that he held the nuts is of no concern because he still had an unfair advantage in seeing the other opponents cards. A big part of poker is having the skill to know how much to bet and at which times and which frequencies. I might even say that is the hardest and most important asset a poker player can have and what affects there win rate the most. It makes the difference between a winning player and a losing player, a good player and a great player. Even 1bb/100 over the course of an entire career is a lot of ****ing money. And if he knew exactly what his opponent had, then he would have an advantage in knowing how much to bet, raise or x/raise in that exact instance to extract max value from his opponent.

Also, it is of not much importance whether we know how hard it is, albeit, the more we know the better. We are providing value in our findings and research, even if its simply participating as a community and bringing awareness to bring down a cheater, but we are of course providing much more value than that, and that is what matters.
Of course this stuff matters. The complications involved in seeking legal recourse in the face of a general attitude of buyer beware makes it all the more important that the community self-police. As far as that aspect goes, I don't really have anything to contribute to the conversation but I do agree that quantifying the extent of the unfair advantage is relatively unimportant. As far as the law stuff, agree to disagree.
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:44 PM   #7934
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
Nelson is a sliding scale. The more difficult the defendant's conduct renders the computation of damages, the more latitude the plaintiff gets in estimating damages.

In this situation, there's just no getting around the profits being the only available reasonable estimate of the damages. And profits are OFTEN allowed as estimates of damages (e.g., look at trademark cases; literally happens all the time). I think it's a rather straightforward application of Nelson.
I haven't looked at anything gumpnstein or anybody did pre-7/18/18 or whenever it was, but if he was already winning in this exact game I would certainly make sure that at minimum the trier of fact explained its decision not to consider this in mitigation. I would probably propose that some kind of lodestar be used, admittedly for mostly cosmetic purposes.
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:49 PM   #7935
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe View Post
Its a 5 hour video, you need to say when bro
go to 1:28:47 and you will see and hear Postle in the booth clearly say "its so easy when you can see the cards".....omg!
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:49 PM   #7936
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by atenesq View Post
Of course this stuff matters. The complications involved in seeking legal recourse in the face of a general attitude of buyer beware makes it all the more important that the community self-police. As far as that aspect goes, I don't really have anything to contribute to the conversation but I do agree that quantifying the extent of the unfair advantage is relatively unimportant. As far as the law stuff, agree to disagree.
Fair enough. I don't know the law, but I do feel that it would be appropriate to award back losses even in cases where Postle was holding the nuts, although that is just my opinion and not based in any understanding of how things work in a civil lawsuit. I do, however, see how it could be difficult to go after potential earnings if, let's say, a plaintiff held the nuts and Postle folded in a spot where he should have called. So yea, I'd agree, it gets pretty complicated once you get down to the nitty gritty details.
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:51 PM   #7937
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by IIdonkeyfishII View Post
https://youtu.be/_dFzke6mn0M
Check this.... He knows the camera blanks and comes back on during replay....
And commentator tries to cover....
4:23:37
hah that's a good find.

Also was thinking wow that wall behind them really is paper thin, they can talk with the peek room straight through the wall:
https://youtu.be/_dFzke6mn0M?t=15821
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:55 PM   #7938
lawdude
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
Fair enough. I don't know the law, but I do feel that it would be appropriate to award back losses even in cases where Postle was holding the nuts, although that is just my opinion and not based in any understanding of how things work in a civil lawsuit. I do, however, see how it could be difficult to go after potential earnings if, let's say, a plaintiff held the nuts and Postle folded in a spot where he should have called. So yea, I'd agree, it gets pretty complicated once you get down to the nitty gritty details.
There's no doubt that Postle or Stones can argue that some amount of money would have been won by Postle anyway and that the plaintiffs should be limited to money that Postle provably wouldn't have won. And if the jury buys that, the Defendants will get a deduction.
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:57 PM   #7939
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Cool Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by oldandwise View Post
go to 1:28:47 and you will see and hear Postle in the booth clearly say "its so easy when you can see the cards".....omg!
At first listen, I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt on this one and say he's saying it's when us, the viewer can see his cards but once again, this is him subtly admitting to cheating because he's a narcissistic douche.

Last edited by .isolated; 10-12-2019 at 07:04 PM.
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:58 PM   #7940
washoe
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by IIdonkeyfishII View Post
https://youtu.be/_dFzke6mn0M
Check this.... He knows the camera blanks and comes back on during replay....
And commentator tries to cover....
4:23:37
So Mike has been writing on his book for the last 2 years and its about to come out? great TIMING isnt it?

4.26.30

Last edited by washoe; 10-12-2019 at 07:05 PM.
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:07 PM   #7941
001001
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Card View Post
When he has iPhone, I think he starts by getting message by text/iMessage.
He definitely has multiple phones - my working theory is he switched to Android for VLC since it does a good job of pulling WMV over an HTTP network stream


Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Card View Post
Berkey says you need Windows Media Player, but I think Berkey has missed something here, I think you can probably also do it on any phone using VLC Media Player.
I've already posted that people are getting too caught up in Windows Media Player - they're confusing the WMV format that PokerGFX can output and Windows Media Player the software.

WMV files as well as the VC-1 codec or VC-9 codec can be played anywhere (former is used in blue-ray. the latter is used in a lot of places online)

VLC plays all of it:

https://www.videolan.org/vlc/features.html

I now have both a Windows machine and PokerGFX and i'm starting to pull it all apart and demo how this would all work
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:10 PM   #7942
wiiziwiig
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
There's no doubt that Postle or Stones can argue that some amount of money would have been won by Postle anyway and that the plaintiffs should be limited to money that Postle provably wouldn't have won. And if the jury buys that, the Defendants will get a deduction.
Gotcha, that makes sense. How the hell will they even go through all those hands to deliberate this then? i see what atensq means by it not being so simple now.
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:13 PM   #7943
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by IIdonkeyfishII View Post
https://youtu.be/_dFzke6mn0M
Check this.... He knows the camera blanks and comes back on during replay....
And commentator tries to cover....
4:23:37
Way better. Go to 1:28:47

“It’s easy when you can see the cards!” Haha

Savage.
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:16 PM   #7944
oldandwise
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by .isolated View Post
At first listen, I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt on this one and say he's saying it's when us, the viewer can see his cards but once again, this is him subtly admitting to cheating because he's a narcissistic douche.
I enjoy watching him comment on hands in the booth after the fact and 100% agree with you that he was referring to the viewers making comments with the hole cards there for everyone to see but what a hilarious choice of words given where we are now. Love the narcissistic douche comment.
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:18 PM   #7945
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

snaps on your work 001001, been doing some great stuff.
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:19 PM   #7946
Wild Card
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by 001001 View Post
He definitely has multiple phones - my working theory is he switched to Android for VLC since it does a good job of pulling WMV over an HTTP network stream

I've already posted that people are getting too caught up in Windows Media Player - they're confusing the WMV format that PokerGFX can output and Windows Media Player the software.

WMV files as well as the VC-1 codec or VC-9 codec can be played anywhere (former is used in blue-ray. the latter is used in a lot of places online)

VLC plays all of it:

https://www.videolan.org/vlc/features.html

I now have both a Windows machine and PokerGFX and i'm starting to pull it all apart and demo how this would all work
Yeah I have a feeling he might try and lie about how many phones he has (or borrowed), to whoever is investigating this.
You can get VLC for the iPhone I think, maybe it worked better on Android like you said?
Demo sounds good, you putting it on youtube?
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:23 PM   #7947
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

stones is a rathole....holy **** i can´t believe it...will never play on a livestream again myself...too many thieves out there
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:25 PM   #7948
001001
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by IIdonkeyfishII View Post
https://youtu.be/_dFzke6mn0M
Check this.... He knows the camera blanks and comes back on during replay....
And commentator tries to cover....
4:23:37
Here it is cropped

https://streamable.com/owoka

This is pretty damning
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:39 PM   #7949
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

isn't he just making a 'joke'? It doesn't come back on?
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:40 PM   #7950
001001
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Card View Post
Yeah I have a feeling he might try and lie about how many phones he has (or borrowed), to whoever is investigating this.
You can get VLC for the iPhone I think, maybe it worked better on Android like you said?
It's also because the phone he had in those sessions he was waking up by pressing a button on the left-hand side and as somebody else has pointed out in the thread the camera on the back was positioned in the middle

I'm not as familiar with Android devices but somebody else here said it looks like one of the HTC android devices

He is either using multiple phones to separate his cheat play or there is something about Android that makes it work better. In my minimal experience I saw HTTP streaming to VLC on Android working much better than on iOS when I setup AceStream -> Device -> TV for a friend

This is all theories rather than the harder video evidence of him holding and waking up what looks like an Android phone

Quote:
Demo sounds good, you putting it on youtube?
I work better written so will likely post details with photos + clips on my blog - there are also a bunch of notes I have that need to be flushed out into a better form as a lot of people aren't following this thread or watching marathon YouTube sessions

Stick to the hard evidence like video and audio clips, hand play and anything that can be corroborated with independent testing and keep the speculative stuff in forums/reddit/twitter etc.
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