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Old 10-11-2019, 11:31 PM   #7726
Eponymous
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by parisron View Post
They are banning people in the poker room for talking about him?
That's what Veronica Brill just said a bit ago.
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Old 10-11-2019, 11:31 PM   #7727
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

A criminal investigation would be able to get their hands on his text messaging and email records among other things. I would be very confident those aren't things Mike wants others to see.
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Old 10-11-2019, 11:38 PM   #7728
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Eponymous View Post
That's what Veronica Brill just said a bit ago.
I just want to go in there, sit down at a 1/3 table, and just stare at my crotch the entire game.
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Old 10-11-2019, 11:49 PM   #7729
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
I’m in seat 2 - gonna try an experiment and see if I can hide my phone from the other players.
Results: not hard to hide, even 10 handed - which Stones isn’t.

Seat 1 has to crane their neck way around.

Seat 3 said he couldn’t see and also had a good point that a man generally doesn’t go looking at another man’s crotch.
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Old 10-11-2019, 11:51 PM   #7730
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post
A criminal investigation would be able to get their hands on his text messaging and email records among other things. I would be very confident those aren't things Mike wants others to see.
I often wonder where this belief comes from. Back when the whole Tom Brady deflate-gate issue was going on (and it was reported the NFL wanted it's hands on Brady's cell); I believe it was one of tech websites (maybe a news site I can't recall) reported that two of the 4 largest US wireless carriers kept sms content (one for like a week, the other for like a couple months) and the other two didn't keep sms content at all. I don't think any email providers have publicly acknowledged if and how long they keep emails for when a user deletes them. Point being; do you know for sure all wireless carriers and email providers keep sms/email transcripts indefinitely? I'm sure a wireless carrier has logs like "this number sms'd that number on this date/time", but the actual content of the sms kept indefinitely, kind of a scary thought.
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Old 10-11-2019, 11:55 PM   #7731
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
I just want to go in there, sit down at a 1/3 table, and just stare at my crotch the entire game.
They probably banned crotch staring as well. At least if you're in a hand.
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Old 10-11-2019, 11:55 PM   #7732
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by zica View Post
It's beyond any reasonable doubt that he was cheating. A great player with lots of experience will occasionally get a read on his opponents behavior such that he has a sense of the strength of his hand. Once in a while, the great and experienced player will be wrong about his sense of his opponents behavior. Mike's defenders ask us to believe that during the streams which he spent a fair bit of time staring at the phone he had tucked between his legs under his crotch, that he was such a good player that he always knew(not just had a sense), that his opponent was strong or weak, but even more than that, how strong and how weak he was. Mike Postle, if he's not cheating, is infinitely better than the best player in the world, because he's perfect. Even being right 95% of the time is not within the realm of reasonable possibility.

I don't think a jury in a criminal court would find him guilty due to this because they wouldn't understand or believe it, buy maybe.
I agree with all of this, saying that it will be interesting to see the relationship between "Stones Gambling Hall" and "Stones Live Poker", are they the same entity? Most casinos have cameras/security galore, was that the case in Stones poker room?

A criminal case might be difficult to prove, but if you have Stones willing to share whatever evidence they may have to settle for a nice sum to make this go away/ absolve them of blame, the guilty parties might very well be looking at a felony conviction.

I'll defer to the legal experts ITT, but don't be surprised if Mike is facing a felony charge in the near future.

That might be the least of his worries if The IRS gets involved.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:02 AM   #7733
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Eponymous View Post
That's what Veronica Brill just said a bit ago.
She said FROM talking about him not FOR. Significant difference there but I’d say that’s pretty lax. There’s a lot of talk in the room about him.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:03 AM   #7734
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jal300 View Post
I often wonder where this belief comes from. Back when the whole Tom Brady deflate-gate issue was going on (and it was reported the NFL wanted it's hands on Brady's cell); I believe it was one of tech websites (maybe a news site I can't recall) reported that two of the 4 largest US wireless carriers kept sms content (one for like a week, the other for like a couple months) and the other two didn't keep sms content at all. I don't think any email providers have publicly acknowledged if and how long they keep emails for when a user deletes them. Point being; do you know for sure all wireless carriers and email providers keep sms/email transcripts indefinitely? I'm sure a wireless carrier has logs like "this number sms'd that number on this date/time", but the actual content of the sms kept indefinitely, kind of a scary thought.
You're correct that most actual text messages are not kept indefinitely. But, most messages are sent on apps these days. Some are very hard to trace. Others are very easy.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:04 AM   #7735
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Just a question to the legal experts here. In discovery for the civil case, will they be able to gain access to Postle's phone, or more importantly SMS texts from his phone?

Unless he was using WhatsApp or some other communication method all the time, shouldn't there be a strong possibility that he was communicating with others about the prospect of cheating, or afterwards, the results of cheating through his phone. This could all be captured, and potentially be the smoking gun that everyone is looking for.

Last edited by ConnorLeon; 10-12-2019 at 12:06 AM. Reason: Sorry if this is a repeat post, never noticed the content above, or maybe just read it and didn't consciously realize.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:10 AM   #7736
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ConnorLeon View Post
Just a question to the legal experts here. In discovery for the civil case, will they be able to gain access to Postle's phone, or more importantly SMS texts from his phone?
Subpoeana's in federal civil cases are very much a thing

https://www.uscourts.gov/forms/notic...ects-or-permit

https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcp/rule_45
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:10 AM   #7737
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by .isolated View Post
Yeah this seems big unless you were around for things like when UIGEA passed in 2006 and Party left the US, BF, Absolute/UB debacles, FTP, probably others I forget.
The way news cycles now and how stories go viral is different though. While those scandals were massive within the poker community there wasn’t a lot of mainstream coverage. This story is being featured on sportscenter and every blog on the internet, it’s HUGE. My wife who finds poker the least interesting subject in the world is even fascinated and asking me for daily updates. I think this will and already is the biggest poker story besides Moneymaker.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:11 AM   #7738
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by 001001 View Post
I'm running blue screen + object detection for phones along with face recognition at the moment, it's just slow but it'll eventually post results (it's running slower than the frame rate of the videos but i'm going to parallelize it further)

Some of these tasks would be better to split up and assign out on Mechanical Turk and produce a comprehensive dataset of who played, when, hand history, seat positions, etc. - you can layer object detection on top of that but such a data set should prove very conclusive

There are also subtle little things that are hard to find - for ex. I spotted a video where it appears he is about to enable god mode, checks his phone and it appears it doesn't work, he then opens a text messaging session and subtly looks towards the TD booth after texting - he gets a response and then leaves his phone unlocked between his legs and is in god mode from then on

edit: here is part of that sequence:

https://streamable.com/uv4qv

note it freezes at the beginning because my ffmpeg slice missed a key frame

here is what I see there:

0:13 - sees a message notification and presses on it
0:16 - pulls back from table so nobody can see screen and reads message
0:23 - glances up towards TD booth
0:25 - presses 11-13 characters and space at least once and hits reply (not sure if we can figure out what he types here but the view is okish)
0:27 - doesn't lock his phone (screen still awake) and places it between his legs and pulls his chair back in

here's the glance



video slowed down 5x for those who don't want to download to slowdown or freeze etc.

https://streamable.com/3w3ux
This is pretty amazing research. Thank you for doing this
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:11 AM   #7739
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ConnorLeon View Post
Just a question to the legal experts here. In discovery for the civil case, will they be able to gain access to Postle's phone, or more importantly SMS texts from his phone?

Unless he was using WhatsApp or some other communication method all the time, shouldn't there be a strong possibility that he was communicating with others about the prospect of cheating, or afterwards, the results of cheating through his phone. This could all be captured, and potentially be the smoking gun that everyone is looking for.
They can pretty much ask for any document/record/thing be produced that might be relevant.

Last edited by jal300; 10-12-2019 at 12:24 AM.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:12 AM   #7740
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by a dewd View Post
I think it works out to every person in the US flipping a coin every 5 seconds for around the clock for 13 months straight.

Sounds reasonable.
First of all, i dont think the odds work that way. I think it would still take each person the same amount of time to hit the 90 heads and you can't split the work. Mb, someone else can speak on this. Second of all, you clearly didn't do any math and just grabbed a random number.

So, for arguments sake, let's imagine that somehow they could all work together to do this, which again, I dont think it works that way, but lets see what the number would be.

One person doing it would take 4.6 billion times the age of the known universe while 327.2 million ppl in the US would take 14.07 times the age of the known universe. Yea thats way better.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:20 AM   #7741
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ConnorLeon View Post
Just a question to the legal experts here. In discovery for the civil case, will they be able to gain access to Postle's phone, or more importantly SMS texts from his phone?

Unless he was using WhatsApp or some other communication method all the time, shouldn't there be a strong possibility that he was communicating with others about the prospect of cheating, or afterwards, the results of cheating through his phone. This could all be captured, and potentially be the smoking gun that everyone is looking for.
I would think his phone would be long gone by now, no? A hammer accidentally fell on it 30 times in a row....
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:23 AM   #7742
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
First of all, i dont think the odds work that way. I think it would still take each person the same amount of time to hit the 90 heads and you can't split the work. Mb, someone else can speak on this. Second of all, you clearly didn't do any math and just grabbed a random number.

So, for arguments sake, let's imagine that somehow they could all work together to do this, which again, I dont think it works that way, but lets see what the number would be.

One person doing it would take 4.6 billion times the age of the known universe while 327.2 million ppl in the US would take 14.07 times the age of the known universe. Yea thats way better.
No, I meant as a representation of how much it would take to flip a coin that many times. Definitely not a conflating 300 MM people flipping a coin to achieve 121 heads in a row. Those odds are just silly, as you pointed out. Doesn't matter, there will still be people that will say its possible.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:27 AM   #7743
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by 001001 View Post
I'm running blue screen + object detection for phones along with face recognition at the moment, it's just slow but it'll eventually post results (it's running slower than the frame rate of the videos but i'm going to parallelize it further)

Some of these tasks would be better to split up and assign out on Mechanical Turk and produce a comprehensive dataset of who played, when, hand history, seat positions, etc. - you can layer object detection on top of that but such a data set should prove very conclusive

There are also subtle little things that are hard to find - for ex. I spotted a video where it appears he is about to enable god mode, checks his phone and it appears it doesn't work, he then opens a text messaging session and subtly looks towards the TD booth after texting - he gets a response and then leaves his phone unlocked between his legs and is in god mode from then on

edit: here is part of that sequence:

https://streamable.com/uv4qv

note it freezes at the beginning because my ffmpeg slice missed a key frame

here is what I see there:

0:13 - sees a message notification and presses on it
0:16 - pulls back from table so nobody can see screen and reads message
0:23 - glances up towards TD booth
0:25 - presses 11-13 characters and space at least once and hits reply (not sure if we can figure out what he types here but the view is okish)
0:27 - doesn't lock his phone (screen still awake) and places it between his legs and pulls his chair back in

here's the glance



video slowed down 5x for those who don't want to download to slowdown or freeze etc.

https://streamable.com/3w3ux
The level of comprehensive and meticulous work you and some others have done here is amazing. The attorneys filing the suit should peel of a chunk of the contingency fees they collect and pay you guys for making their work easier AND it saves them from paying for it themselves.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:28 AM   #7744
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Let's not jump to conclusions.

What if he's actually a 100bb/100 crusher and this is only a 1 in 2^80 shot?
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:31 AM   #7745
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by StraightJacked View Post


In a dusty ass Under Armour hat. Classic.
He apparently had the patented "Hat Buldge" back then as well...
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:42 AM   #7746
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by a dewd View Post
No, I meant as a representation of how much it would take to flip a coin that many times. Definitely not a conflating 300 MM people flipping a coin to achieve 121 heads in a row. Those odds are just silly, as you pointed out. Doesn't matter, there will still be people that will say its possible.
People can say whatever they want, it doesn't mean they are correct. Possible, yes, probable, not even close, it might as well be 0%.

Last edited by wiiziwiig; 10-12-2019 at 01:07 AM.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:43 AM   #7747
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Key Guy View Post
Winning Powerball twice if true doesn't equate to winning it four times in a row, anyone with a rudimentary understanding of math understands this.
.
Someone whose friends and family won the lottery several times in different states over the course of years got caught cheating that as well. The math is evidence that it should be looked at, but the review of the actual play is damning.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:44 AM   #7748
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by TheGreenMile View Post
She said FROM talking about him not FOR. Significant difference there but I’d say that’s pretty lax. There’s a lot of talk in the room about him.
Yeah, I misread his post.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:45 AM   #7749
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Abbaddabba View Post
Let's not jump to conclusions.

What if he's actually a 100bb/100 crusher and this is only a 1 in 2^80 shot?
I’m firmly in the “of course he cheated camp”, but these stats getting pulled out lack foundation. Ignores how deep the game played, that it often had blinds bigger than 1/3, that there were often straddles, that there were bomb pots and that there were around the table straddles. It also ignores what appears to be a significant amount of rebuys and adding on to equal the chip leader. If someone wants to gather a better data metric, then we can run what the real statistics are. But until then, let’s not pretend that this is a once in 5 universe event.
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Old 10-12-2019, 01:03 AM   #7750
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Karmic View Post
Someone whose friends and family won the lottery several times in different states over the course of years got caught cheating that as well. The math is evidence that it should be looked at, but the review of the actual play is damning.
If you're referring to the story that was on 60 Minutes a year or so ago, they weren't cheating. They found that the way some lotteries rolled the money forward when nobody hit, it actually rolled down to games where the odds are better (fewer numbers to pick) to the point that it actually made it +EV to buy a ticket. Since each purchase is +EV, it makes sense to buy a ton of tickets. So that's what they did, and they hit lots of them. It's not cheating. They just watched for whenever this type of roll down tipped the odds into the ticket buyers' favor, and they invested in tons of tickets. They eventually started cluing in friends and family.

Not that it matters to the point you were making, but it was just interesting that they took advantage of the people running the lottery not being able to do the simple math.
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