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Old 10-09-2019, 10:27 PM   #7001
Natamus
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
I feel like Stones would want this to go away. If I had played in a bunch of games with Postle, I'd approach Stones quietly on the side and see if I can just sign something to say I won't sue or join the coplaintiffs. Seems like the best way to get paid - screw all that contingency stuff.


Will you accept prepaid Morse code lessons in lieu of cash or chips?
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Old 10-09-2019, 10:30 PM   #7002
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I have no idea whether the feds may have any jurisdiction here - there was some earlier discussion about structuring his cash outs, which if true, likely would - the link I sent is for the state gambling board tho, who would be investigating the cheating, which is within the California Department of Justice.
Ahhh, sorry, I saw DOJ and got confused. I should have read more carefully.
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Old 10-09-2019, 10:30 PM   #7003
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Great interview Jonathan!


Thanks for that


To anyone:

How many jurors in a US civil suit? Do all of them have to agree similar to a criminal trial?
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Old 10-09-2019, 10:35 PM   #7004
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Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Re lawsuits: this has mediated settlement and NDAs written all over it.

The discovery and depositions in this case are not going to be fun or pretty. Likely two years or so from
now, everyone is going to probably want to have this over and done with and put behind them in their lives. A payment plan for the settlement award will be agreed to, over and done.

Settle down with the excitement over civil trials and juries and the like. It’s just not really likely to happen, as much as this thread would love the theater of it all

ETA: I’m calling my shot now: the total settlement agreed to before legal fees will be $1 million or less. Change my mind.
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Old 10-09-2019, 10:36 PM   #7005
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Joey said Stones is reaching out to players in the game trying to settle.
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Old 10-09-2019, 10:41 PM   #7006
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by AceHighIsGood View Post
I agree with you preflop, but calling off 1/10 of your stack with just a backdoor diamond draw (with one of the diamonds dead since it pairs the board) and a backdoor quads draw (which is about 1 in 1000) is terrible -- the implied odds aren't close to being there. Even if he is guaranteed a free turn card (which he isn't) and guaranteed to bust KK when he hits, he still needs 30-40x odds. 10x in implied + 4x in dead money (already in the pot) is only 1/3 of what he needs.

Which is not to say that he is not cheating (he is), just that this is a very poor way to play postflop if you know your opponents' cards.
One thing to remember about this is we have evidence of how Postle plays when he is not cheating. While he is certainly not the worst player in the world, he's far from a brilliant NLHE strategist and a number of his plays were weak.

I think he may not have fully considered SPR when making some of his flop and turn calls. It was closer to "I have equity, I am not folding". He calls one or two all in's, as I remember, when he wasn't getting odds to call as well.

And the reality is, "I have equity, I am not folding" is not a terrible deviation from optimal God mode strategy- getting there occasionally with some bad calls is helpful to the table image that he just always gets there, rather than that he is doing something improper.
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Old 10-09-2019, 10:42 PM   #7007
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Joey said Stones is reaching out to players in the game trying to settle.


It would be in Stones best interest and probably the plaintiffs as well for them to:

-Fire anyone they found to have worked with Mike, been negligent, or complicit with anyone involved.
-Sue Mike themselves and perma ban him from any property they own/co-own
-Reach out to any and all players who were proven via stream to have played with Mike during the cheating sessions and offer them full restitution + a small bonus kicker (maybe 5k per player idk what would be fair).
-Have everyone sign NDAs
-Issue am apology to Veronica on top of all of this and a thank you for exposing these cheats that were using their casino for their own gain.

Idk if any of that will happen but that would be a good start to getting this all out of the way and settled
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Old 10-09-2019, 10:45 PM   #7008
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by BossMalate View Post
While I was writing this up and thinking it through I have come to the conclusion that the best comparison for Postles win-rate and other statistical matters is the Stone live stream opponents themselves. This information is available on the streams and seems to me to be the best comparison of Postel's actual results. Maybe I could collect it if i had another 1000 spare hours. Thoughts? Comments?
Thanks for your work on the spreadsheets. They have been helpful for me, and I'll try and get more involved in adding info. I am not a mathematician and don't know exactly how much statistical evidence (or how big a sample size) you need to "prove" that a winrate is nigh on impossible in a particular game, how one would calculate (or even estimate) a winning reg's EV in such a crazy game, or how many deviations above "normal" Postle's winrate might be.
But to convince a skeptic of Postle's cheating, can't you just take 5 or 10 sessions (or as many as possible) when he's clearly not cheating, and work out his winrate (or lossrate) in those, and then compare the result to his profits in a similar number of sessions where he is displaying signs of cheating (e.g. crotch-stares). i.e. You compare "Normal Mike" and "Godmode Mike". You can argue the case that he is a "moderate winner" of X bb/100 when not cheating, and then show he's a monstrous winner when cheating*.
In the first 8 sessions he is not Godmoding, and his profits are fairly small at a few hundred dollars (he had 3 losing sessions). In the first 8 sessions that have been confirmed as Godmode/crotch-stare sessions, he won every time and his smallest win was over $1000, and his largest was over $22,000.

* Someone else did some clever math which calculated p values that showed there is an exceedingly high correlation between Mike's winning sessions and him looking at this crotch, but a much lower correlation between winning and wearing a particular baseball cap, or having his keys on the rail.
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I wrote a quick OpenCV script to process video frames and detect the same blue straight from the HSV values of the PokerGFX app
That's so clever. It will be interesting if it comes up with other examples of the blue screen.
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Old 10-09-2019, 10:46 PM   #7009
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Natamus View Post
Re lawsuits: this has mediated settlement and NDAs written all over it.

The discovery and depositions in this case are not going to be fun or pretty. Likely two years or so from
now, everyone is going to probably want to have this over and done with and put behind them in their lives. A payment plan for the settlement award will be agreed to, over and done.

Settle down with the excitement over civil trials and juries and the like. It’s just not really likely to happen, as much as this thread would love the theater of it all

ETA: I’m calling my shot now: the total settlement agreed to before legal fees will be $1 million or less. Change my mind.
Agreed. And if there is a settlement, I’d take the under on $250k.

At this point, I imagine Stone’s is working closely with law enforcement agencies to nail postle & his accomplice(s), and limit their liability. Expecting The answers we are all looking for are going to come out thru the criminal side of the justice system.
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Old 10-09-2019, 10:56 PM   #7010
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by AceHighIsGood View Post
I agree with you preflop, but calling off 1/10 of your stack with just a backdoor diamond draw (with one of the diamonds dead since it pairs the board) and a backdoor quads draw (which is about 1 in 1000) is terrible -- the implied odds aren't close to being there. Even if he is guaranteed a free turn card (which he isn't) and guaranteed to bust KK when he hits, he still needs 30-40x odds. 10x in implied + 4x in dead money (already in the pot) is only 1/3 of what he needs.

Which is not to say that he is not cheating (he is), just that this is a very poor way to play postflop if you know your opponents' cards.
Idiot cheater is idiot.
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Old 10-09-2019, 10:57 PM   #7011
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Natamus View Post
Re lawsuits: this has mediated settlement and NDAs written all over it.

The discovery and depositions in this case are not going to be fun or pretty. Likely two years or so from
now, everyone is going to probably want to have this over and done with and put behind them in their lives. A payment plan for the settlement award will be agreed to, over and done.

Settle down with the excitement over civil trials and juries and the like. It’s just not really likely to happen, as much as this thread would love the theater of it all

ETA: I’m calling my shot now: the total settlement agreed to before legal fees will be $1 million or less. Change my mind.
Heads will roll, or they are sunk. Whether they settle or not. No sane person would play there again.
Casino & JFK need to pay for negligence, on top of giving all the money back.
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Old 10-09-2019, 10:58 PM   #7012
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by grjr View Post
I have been watching the stream of the 10/25/50 game from 9/21/19 and have a question. I believe this was after the phone ban (no phones visible anywhere) and I don't see anything under Postle's hat (not like before). Has this game been discussed in this thread in regards to how he could have been cheating?
I'm speculating a little, but Berkey had his phone out most of the stream, I think I recall Christian Soto saying they didn't say anything at first, but then told them not to have phones out later in the stream.

Sort of seems like Postle knew about the phone ban, played for 3 and a half hours, realized he could get away with it and then played with it in his crotch for most of the second half of the stream. It's hard to tell at times if he's in full God mode because you only see him 25% of the time (rotates between 4 cameras). He almost never looks at his crotch the first 3:31:00, then its almost every hand after.
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:03 PM   #7013
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by #1PEN View Post
We all know Postle is cheating, but we need 100% proof. I dissected the only 10-25-50nl game on Stones Live Poker today. Last night I had it playing while watching Ingram's stream and didn't think he was in God mode at all, but after dissecting it today, he's in God mode but only after 3:31:00. First hand in God mode is AQ. Sorry for being off about that in the chat last night. Crazy to watch though. He's almost for sure not in God mode and crushing the game the first 3 and a half hours, then decides to flip the switch. Also there's a guy standing behind him from 2:32:40 until 3:26:00, he tries to go into God mode at 3:26:29, but realizes the guy is still standing beside him, so it would look fishy, so he gets up, walks around, misses a hand, comes back and the guy isn't standing behind him any more and he's almost 100% in God mode for the next 45 minutes. Plays completely different than the first 3 and a half hours, lots of crotch staring. I'm sure there are other examples of this, but after watching this, its safe to assume that he's always switching back and forth between playing legit and God mode, it's not a consistent thing. Also when he's not in God mode, he's still pretty damn good. He plays a few strange hand like the 45 v Ac9c, QJ v QT, and open folds A8o on the button in the last 30 minutes of the stream. Its tough to determine if he's in God mode in these hands, or if he's content with running $5k up to $26k and doesn't want to make it any more obvious, puke. The reason why I was so curious about this stream is because it was after allegations were made, cell phones were banned and it said God mode on the spreadsheet you guys made, with hours of him clearly not being in God mode. I thought Stones and Postle might have tried to play clean on this stream, but nope, just a 3 and a half hour set up winning 10k on top of the 10k he was already up.
I think it's great your looking into this session specifically because it's the one that seems most likely to me to involve the bone conducting headset as a method of cheating.

I think whoever is running the spreadsheet, to me it's not as simple declaring that he was in god mode or not in god mode in any given session, it's really more of a probabilistic scale. The session on 9/18/19, I watched the entire stream, so no suspicious hands or behavior, and hands I don't think he would have played the same if he could see his opponents cards. I would say 1% chance he was cheating in that stream. However, when he does seem like he could be cheating, which is when he has suspicious behavior and makes a very good play, it's not always clear he is cheating. In the 9/21/19 session, there are a fair amount of spots where it seems like he is not cheating. There are some great bluffs he makes where it may just be a great bluff and not cheating. The Marle hand obviously was one of the most suspicious hands.

I have watched the 9/21/19 session extensively and I disagree with your conclusion that he didn't start cheating until the 3.5 hour mark, but I will say it does seem like in a lot of sessions there is much more clear evidence of cheating later in the session compared to earlier.

There are several hands, the bluff on the 9555 board against AK, the c/r against KK on an A88 board, the hand where he folds a pair and a gutter against a set where he almost certainly would have called if he was facing even an overpair, where you could say it's possible he's cheating. There's also a ton of suspicious behavior putting his left hand and pressing the area of the hat above his left ear. Please look at these hands and let me know if you disagree with my assessment that he could have been cheating before 3:30:00
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:04 PM   #7014
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by R*R View Post
How many jurors in a US civil suit? Do all of them have to agree similar to a criminal trial?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Natamus View Post

Settle down with the excitement over civil trials and juries and the like. It’s just not really likely to happen, as much as this thread would love the theater of it all

ETA: I’m calling my shot now: the total settlement agreed to before legal fees will be $1 million or less. Change my mind.
Hey screw you and answer my damn question.


Your ETA probably isn't too far from the truth. I just hope Postle gets nailed.
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:08 PM   #7015
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by #1PEN View Post
I'm speculating a little, but Berkey had his phone out most of the stream, I think I recall Christian Soto saying they didn't say anything at first, but then told them not to have phones out later in the stream.

Sort of seems like Postle knew about the phone ban, played for 3 and a half hours, realized he could get away with it and then played with it in his crotch for most of the second half of the stream. It's hard to tell at times if he's in full God mode because you only see him 25% of the time (rotates between 4 cameras). He almost never looks at his crotch the first 3:31:00, then its almost every hand after.
All of the footage is discoverable. If preserved, Plaintiffs will be able to see all the footage from each camera including the camera directly on Mike P during each game.
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:11 PM   #7016
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

It would be much better to have a criminal case adjudicated before the civil case in the works.

Where are the police, the Feds, law enforcement?
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:12 PM   #7017
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Hey screw you and answer my damn question.


Your ETA probably isn't too far from the truth. I just hope Postle gets nailed.
They need 3/4s of the jury to convict, 9 of 12
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:20 PM   #7018
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
This thread needs some comic relief. Watch Alysha's celebration of this win over Postle, and listen to Joe Ingram's commentary. It's priceless.

https://youtu.be/QzL4uf6qlao?t=3172
One of the comments on the right said that was the day he turned to cheating.
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:20 PM   #7019
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by R*R View Post
Hey screw you and answer my damn question.


Your ETA probably isn't too far from the truth. I just hope Postle gets nailed.
In this case, bc it was filed in federal court, yes the decision would have to be unanimous. (If it was filed in state court, it would only need 75 percent agreement). The major difference between civil/criminal is in a criminal trial, a juror needs to decide someone is guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. In a civil case they just need to believe its more likely than not.

Jury can be between 6-12 members. Also could be a bench trial.
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:22 PM   #7020
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by AceHighIsGood View Post
I agree with you preflop, but calling off 1/10 of your stack with just a backdoor diamond draw (with one of the diamonds dead since it pairs the board) and a backdoor quads draw (which is about 1 in 1000) is terrible -- the implied odds aren't close to being there. Even if he is guaranteed a free turn card (which he isn't) and guaranteed to bust KK when he hits, he still needs 30-40x odds. 10x in implied + 4x in dead money (already in the pot) is only 1/3 of what he needs.

Which is not to say that he is not cheating (he is), just that this is a very poor way to play postflop if you know your opponents' cards.
He's calling the flop for 2 reasons. The backdoor equity is a small boost but it's mostly the fact that it looks really weird to call the 3bet pre and then just fold to one bet with middle pair on K8x. Yes, clearly he's pretty dumb in terms of figuring out what looks way too suspicious and what doesn't, but it's very obvious that whatever idea he has of that influences his play, and it's why he doesn't always lose the literal minimum. It's as simple as that.
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:28 PM   #7021
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by R*R View Post
Hey screw you and answer my damn question.


Your ETA probably isn't too far from the truth. I just hope Postle gets nailed.


Truth is idk but I want to say it’s at least 12 as a guess
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:31 PM   #7022
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Calling all armchair detectives! Here is something that can help you with research, and will also help with the case against Postle and/or his accomplice(s), while also possibly exonerating innocent parties.

THIS is one of the many spreadsheets being completed. Even if you don't do any deep analysis yourself, you can use this spreadsheet to read about suspicions and you can follow links to the YouTube replays. (The spreadsheet is very wide; URLs are on the right).

If you look at the spreadsheet right now, possibly the first thing you will notice is that the majority of sessions are "uninvestigated". Wouldn't you like to be the first to find another smoking gun?

Here's where you come in. You can pick an "uninvestigated session", follow the link to it, and then watch it, either at high-speed looking for general info, or slower in search of specific details.
You can then right-click in the relevant cell and add your notes. These will show up with a little yellow triangle. It would be very useful if you add timestamps, so that your observations can be confirmed by others.

e.g. A note on God-moding:


It's important that sessions where Postle doesn't appear to be cheating are also studied. Something you see/hear in that session might provide an explanation for how he cheated in others.

You don't have to focus on the God Mode column. I've been looking at sessions for evidence of particular staff members, and I plan to do more of this. If you see JFK in the booth, or walking around, make a note and get a timestamp. If you hear the commentators speak to Taylor (or Lance), or see him on the floor, make a note:


If you see something that looks suspicious but don't know if it's important, or there's a hand where you're not sure if Postle is cheating, by all means post it in this thread and see what others say.
If we can get this spreadsheet filled out, then VerStandig and the other lawyers can totally nail these guys, and get the highest amount of damages for all the victims. Let's go, Team NVG!

Spreadsheet link, once more: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=2044248290
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:34 PM   #7023
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Guys something struck me during the Veronica interview. She mentioned how Mike could have played a couple hands per sessions in god mode before July 18th 2018 to practice the system and get good at it. Im now digging into this theory because it makes sense. The smoking gun might be in plain site on the rail before July 18th. I briefly looked at this 1k sitngo that was played Feb 23rd 2018, and mike has a phone and ipad on his rail. Im going to look into this Feb 2018 stream and i encourage others to look into previous July 18th streams as well for any irregularities.

His phone and ipad are in crystal clear view, and i am hypothesizing that Mike may have actually opened the cheating app on phone (or through messaging) while its on rail to god mode pre July 2018 for only a couple times per stream to test his system. I just need time to look at it in depth.

One thing to know is mike’s show called “dream seat poker” took place way back in 2017. Lets look into if mike was practicing god mode maybe for only a couple hands per session pre July 2018 even if his devices are on the rail.

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/232171434

Lets dissect streams from before the phone went under the table!

Last edited by Grind On My Mind; 10-09-2019 at 11:45 PM.
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:42 PM   #7024
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by parisron View Post
Joey said Stones is reaching out to players in the game trying to settle.
Wait, what?

This is a little strange, right, given there is a lawsuit filed? I mean, I don't even play a lawyer on TV, let alone on a poker stream, but ...

Also, what is "settle" here? Refund all pots lost?
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:44 PM   #7025
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6w4TguWyUH0

4:16:00 in this video. Would you agree Postle is positioning his phone under his crotch at this moment?
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