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Old 10-09-2019, 03:46 PM   #6826
wiiziwiig
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
In a legal vacuum, the plaintiffs are entitled to their out of pocket damages, which are calculated as:

H - A

Where:

H = the amount they would have won or lost had Postle played honestly.
A = the actual amount they won or lost in hands Postle played.

The problem is a matter of proof. You could try to hire an expert who could write a report calculating H for each Plaintiff. But it's going to cost a lot of money to prepare and it might still get excluded as speculative. Are we going to make Postle a hypothetical TAG? A TAGfish? A LAG? What post-flop skills are we going to counterfactually assign to him? How are we going to know what his bet sizing is going to be, or when he is going to fold?

In contrast, the $250,000 that he actually won is a usable estimate of the plaintiffs' damages that will require no expert report and no risk that an expensive expert will be excluded at trial.
I think it could be simplified to something along the lines of 1) $250,000 to $350,000 goes back to the players to repay their losses. 2) Pay each player 5bb/hr for each session he was in for every hour he played. 3) Emotional and psychological distress / pain and suffering restitution could be a lump sum of $10k-$50k to anyone losing over $10k or some figure to Postle. Obviously Postle doesn't have this much, and his future earnings are uncertain since he is a full-time poker player and won't be playing much poker in his future. Seems like they would have to go after Stones if they really want to get paid, but if they go after Stones, might as well go really big and try to settle out of court.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:46 PM   #6827
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
Maybe slightly. But like 500$/hour is a very conservative estimate for a good high stakes player.
what's your point though, are you trying to argue it's possible for Mike Postle to have this winrate being legit in the game he was playing?
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:46 PM   #6828
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
I just don't want to take sides. No idea. Seems to play solid poker. Hard to say after that. Player goes all in with 54o is not an evidence. There is many players it's good idea against at times (fold too much, and if called you are guarenteed with action later).

1000bb deep winrates are much higher than in 100bb. Live games are played bigger than online.
Live games play a lot slower than online ... And obviously one hand isn't evidence. Read the almost 10k posts in the thread lol

Last edited by mukdukaluk; 10-09-2019 at 03:47 PM. Reason: Type 10k = 100k
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:48 PM   #6829
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by whosnext View Post
godeep promised to post better so received a last-minute reprieve from the governor

now we are waiting for his improved posting to begin

Thank you mate! I am new to forums, never posted before. But I am grateful to be part of this community!

I was just watching a video where a guy claims he was a floor boss in California and gives a plausible scenario: (also claims he wants to help Joey out with solving the crime)
The goal was to make him a superstar. And that means book deals movies etc. So millions... And that would mean it could be a conspiracy maybe bigger than the ap/ub scandal was.

Last edited by godeep; 10-09-2019 at 03:52 PM. Reason: Spelling and adding info
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:53 PM   #6830
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by godeep View Post
Thank you mate! I am new to forums, never posted before. But I am grateful to be part of this community!

I was just watching a video where a guy claims he was a pit boss in California and gives a plausible scenario:
The goal was to make him a superstar. And that means book deals movies rev. So millions... And that would mean it could be a conspiracy maybe bigger than the ap/ub scandal was.
That's not a plausible scenario. It's a wildly imaginative scenario. The plausible scenario is he was cheating for the quarter million dollars he won at the felt and the continued winnings he expected to gain.

plau·si·ble
/ˈplôzəb(ə)l/
adjective
(of an argument or statement) seeming reasonable or probable.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:55 PM   #6831
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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No that's what I read in the lawsuit. Line 138.

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link...e-dc7d1610c53b
That's less specific than their statement to the media (which said a pro rata share based on hours played), and rightly so. The court could use any number of methods for dividing up the money, such as number of hands played against Postle, amount of money voluntarily put into the pot, or something else entirely.

The plaintiffs apparently made an agreement as to how to divide up the damages, but the Court can award them in a number of different ways.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:55 PM   #6832
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I just don't want to take sides. No idea. Seems to play solid poker. Hard to say after that. Player goes all in with 54o is not an evidence. There is many players it's good idea against at times (fold too much, and if called you are guarenteed with action later).

1000bb deep winrates are much higher than in 100bb. Live games are played bigger than online.
It's not just the 54o hand, I actually do not even find the 54o hand suspicious.

I am about to say something and I am not saying this to be a condescening prick, if you truely think mike is playing solid poker when he is clearly cheating, and you don't find anything suspicious about his play, it's probably because your not a good player.

Lookup blackrain79s cheat sheet, it's free and you will get somewhat of a basic understanding of low stakes poker, you will understand why some of these comments your making are silly.

Last edited by whosnext; 10-09-2019 at 04:09 PM. Reason: fixed quoting
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:57 PM   #6833
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

A high portion of the videos on Crush Live Poker use Stones footage. Most of it is from higher stakes than what MP was playing or various sorts of Omaha games. However, I found videos with MP playing there. I can't post them, because you need a subscription to watch them. The analysis I saw was critical of MP's play, but of course his play miraculously worked. The CLP commentary was way better than the live commentary from poker dealers or whatever saying MP was a "force of nature".

Last edited by deuceblocker; 10-09-2019 at 04:07 PM.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:58 PM   #6834
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by matt hirschhorn View Post
It's not just the 54o hand, I actually do not even find the 54o hand suspicious.

I am about to say something and I am not saying this to be a condescening prick, if you truely think mike is playing solid poker when he is clearly cheating, and you don't find anything suspicious about his play, it's probably because your not a good player.

Lookup blackrain79s cheat sheet, it's free and you will get somewhat of a basic understanding of low stakes poker, you will understand why some of these comments your making are silly.
I probable play now and pretty much for sure in past have played higher than you.

Last edited by whosnext; 10-09-2019 at 04:14 PM. Reason: fixed quoting
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:58 PM   #6835
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
I think it could be simplified to something along the lines of 1) $250,000 to $350,000 goes back to the players to repay their losses. 2) Pay each player 5bb/hr for each session he was in for every hour he played. 3) Emotional and psychological distress / pain and suffering restitution could be a lump sum of $10k-$50k to anyone losing over $10k or some figure to Postle. Obviously Postle doesn't have this much, and his future earnings are uncertain since he is a full-time poker player and won't be playing much poker in his future. Seems like they would have to go after Stones if they really want to get paid, but if they go after Stones, might as well go really big and try to settle out of court.
There's no basis for (2). Speculative damages are prohibited, even in fraud cases. You get your out of pocket losses, plus punitive damages if you fall within the narrow bounds of that statute.

(3) has to actually been proven. Contrary to popular belief, emotional distress is not a free for all where the jury gives you anything you want. You want your psychiatrists' bills? Well, you will have to waive the therapist-patient privilege and put them into evidence. You want emotional distress? Prepare to be cross-examined as to exactly how you suffered.

Again, not saying there's zero possibility of an emotional distress award here (it's possible), but it isn't something you can really count on (and again, the damages are fairly low here- you might get $25,000 for your emotional distress or something).
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:02 PM   #6836
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
I probable play now and pretty much for sure in past have played higher than you.
Tell us how high you play then pal. What current stakes and highest stakes played??

Last edited by whosnext; 10-09-2019 at 04:16 PM. Reason: fixed quoting
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:06 PM   #6837
wiiziwiig
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
I just don't want to take sides. No idea. Seems to play solid poker. Hard to say after that. Player goes all in with 54o is not an evidence. There is many players it's good idea against at times (fold too much, and if called you are guarenteed with action later).

1000bb deep winrates are much higher than in 100bb. Live games are played bigger than online.

It's even possible to breakeven player to run hotter than sun and win 250k$ games that are as big as Postle played.
Yes these 5/5 games play deeper than normal bc they are 'top up to chip leader', as well as having a loose atmosphere. Capped or uncapped, doesn't matter, his win rate is still insane. Even if you calculate his bb per 100 hands at 20/40, he has an insane win rate. I posted about this a few days ago.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post


Sure it plays bigger than most 5/5 game bc those are capped while this is table max. It doesn't change the fact that he is winning at rates that are statistically alarming.

total winnings at NLHE: $305236.8
Hrs Played: 338.4
Total hands played: 338.5 * 30 = 10,155
Number of times he played 100 hands: 10155 / 100 = 101.55

Winrate at 5/5
Total winnings in BBs ($5): $305236.8 / 5 = 61047.36BB
61047.36 / 101.55 = 601BB/100 hands (winrate at 5/5)

Winrate at 10/20
Total winnings in BBs ($20): $305236.8 / 20 = 15261.84BB
15261.84 / 101.55 = 150BB/100 hands (winrate at 10/20)


Winrate at 20/40
Total winnings in BBs ($40): $305236.8 / 40 = 7630.92BB
7630.92 / 101.55 = 75BB/100 hands (winrate at 20/40)

Even giving him a generous 30 hands per hour and playing on a 20/40 game which is 8x a bigger BB, he is winning at 75BBs per 100 hands. Which is still an insane winrate.


1 – 4 bb/100 = Great. A solid winrate if you can sustain it.
5 – 9 bb/100 = Amazing. This is a very high winrate at any level. Consider moving up.
10+ bb/100 = Immense. Very, very few have a winrate like this.
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:06 PM   #6838
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Polk and Boski live now

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Old 10-09-2019, 04:09 PM   #6839
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Boski with jacket with ACR and Stones patches. Very nice. lol
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:10 PM   #6840
wiiziwiig
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by deuceblocker View Post
A high portion of the videos on Crush Live Poker use Stones footage. Most of it is from higher stakes than what MP was playing or various sorts of Omaha games. However, I found videos with MP playing there. I can't post them, because you need a subscription to watch them. The analysis I saw was critical of MP's play, but of course his play miraculously worked. The CLP commentary was way better than the live commentary from poker dealers or whatever saying MP was a "force of nature".
I am curious what the commentary on MP's play was. Do you have any notable quotes? I found Jonathan Little's commentary on MP's play, pre crotchgate, pretty funny, saying both players in the hand were a OOL. It was the hero call with A9 where MP lost.
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:11 PM   #6841
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
I just don't want to take sides. No idea. Seems to play solid poker. Hard to say after that. Player goes all in with 54o is not an evidence. There is many players it's good idea against at times (fold too much, and if called you are guarenteed with action later).

1000bb deep winrates are much higher than in 100bb. Live games are played bigger than online.

It's even possible to breakeven player to run hotter than sun and win 250k$ games that are as big as Postle played.
Guess you haven't perused much of the video sessions he's played in then.
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:12 PM   #6842
deuceblocker
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
From Doug Polk's video. 1$/3$ 1000bb deep PLO. Good high stakes player have hourly pretty close to 1k$ easily in those games. And then those are smallest stakes he played?
Is it easy to average $1000/hour at 1/3 PLO?
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:13 PM   #6843
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by 001001 View Post
Pretty similar results - preview here:

https://streamable.com/lir9h

red boxes is certain, yellow is manual review and blue is low probability

it's picking up artifacts/leaks from the OBS chroma keying process that are hard to make out with the naked eye which gives me confidence that this might work



artifacts around the motion of the cards being spotted at low tolerance:



it's logging timestamps and i'm running it now across the first video - eventually have 500GB+ of the mirror archive to run it again which will require GPU
Fantastic Work both of you!
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:14 PM   #6844
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
That's less specific than their statement to the media (which said a pro rata share based on hours played), and rightly so. The court could use any number of methods for dividing up the money, such as number of hands played against Postle, amount of money voluntarily put into the pot, or something else entirely.

The plaintiffs apparently made an agreement as to how to divide up the damages, but the Court can award them in a number of different ways.
Pro rata based on hours was how they wanted to divvy up the punitive damages. (para 113)
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:15 PM   #6845
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I probable play now and pretty much for sure in past have played higher than you.
**** you too, I could've just lied to you like most poker players would've.

Sure, go play like Mike! He plays solid and you should copy his play, go start bluffing 4way pots at 1/2, tell me how that works at for ya!

Last edited by whosnext; 10-09-2019 at 04:22 PM. Reason: fixed quoting
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:18 PM   #6846
PassiveIsBetter
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by deuceblocker View Post
Is it easy to average $1000/hour at 1/3 PLO?

Not easy, but I am pretty sure doable, if you are a very good high stakes player.

Is here any live pro's who think that 500$ hourly is not possible 1000bb deep live 1/3 PLO? I am pretty sure it is and then some.

I am arguing against that lol very high winrates are not possible in soft games.
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:19 PM   #6847
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by parisron View Post
Boski with jacket with ACR and Stones patches. Very nice. lol
Boski arguing ACR is ok because he's met them and they're nice guys. Everyone said Mike Postle was a nice guy too, yet Boski did a video about Mike's cheating but shills for ACR. Amazing how a sponsorship can shape an opinion.
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:20 PM   #6848
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by matt hirschhorn View Post
**** you too, I could've just lied to you like most poker players would've.

Sure, go play like Mike! He plays solid and you should copy his play, go start bluffing 4way pots at 1/2, tell me how that works at for ya!
DOnt waste your energy on either a troll, Mikes Friend or someone so dumb in all things poker that hes not aware of it (Dunning Kruger effect).

Last edited by whosnext; 10-09-2019 at 04:26 PM. Reason: fixed quoting
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:22 PM   #6849
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Question for Lawdude:

Could the damages exceed Postle's winnings by a good amount? I could see a court finding every single hand he won on stream to be fraudulent and require him to repay the winnings. That is, you would go through the streams and every pot that was scooped to him is damages to all the other players in the amount they put in the pot.

Is that implausible?

Would there need to be an offset for hands he lost/folded?
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:24 PM   #6850
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I tried to fix a bunch of recent posts in which the quoting of prior posts was messed up.
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