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Old 10-09-2019, 03:05 PM   #6801
wiiziwiig
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Cmefly View Post
This thread got me to finally register for an account and post...

Just a thought -- it would make sense for the plaintiffs to try to get damages from Stones as they are the deep pocket and a fraud theory would be the maximal outcome. I wonder if they could argue a theory that Stones encouraged and fostered the environment where Postle was propped up as the local hero who liked to gamble, and that induced other players to come play at Stones leading them to lose their money. Stone made a material misrepresentation that Postle was an action player who played fairly and created large, profitable games. The players relied upon this material misrepresentation to believe they were playing in a fair game and lost their money. If such a theory could be viable, they could claim actual damages for all money lost while they were there, not just the money they lost to Postle. There's a lot of evidence that the live streams promoted Postle as poker Jesus and Postle's style of play as being a unique characteristic of poker at Stones (I've seen numerous clips where the commentators make statements of this nature). Poker players like to play in action games as the potential financial benefit is usually greater in action games.

The hard part is to prove proximate injury as a result of the misrepresentation apart from what was lost to Postle. But then if you can have testimony about tilt and how large losing sessions can cause players to take on more risk and can increase losses.

It's a bit sketchy, but it could increase the amount of actual damages that can be accessed and target Stones. They really need to survive motion practice to ratchet up the settlement pressure.
To piggy back on this, would it also be possible to go after possible winnings a player might have received in the session had there not been a cheater present? So not only would they get their lost money back, but also some expected ROI on the session, which I think one of the British casinos attempted to do against Ivey, not sure they were successful in that, but they went after not only the money they lost, but the money they expected to have won from Ivey had he not been edge sorting. Could they also go after phycological damages incurred from being decimated by a cheater? Mental game is huge in poker, and the psychological damages to a players confidence in their game after playing week after week with a cheater could have seriously affected their potential to earn income at the tables in any games they played on or off stream.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:06 PM   #6802
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
Watched he played 10/25/50 about an hour. He had hot deck, played good, and made opponents make big mistakes. Printed like 10k$ there without any real big showdowns.

Obviously there is some very good run to make like 250k$ in 300 hours live play. But then stacks in game I watched were 10k$ to 20k$, so in those games it's like 15ish buy-ins. Then of course if he only played that one time higher it's significantly more.
Nobody is even dispusting that he has always been cheating, he very well may have been playing good in some of these other games where he was not cheating.

With that said, when we look at his runs where he is cheating, he clearly does not play good pre-flop, he then turns into Zeus post-flop.

Mike plays exactly like someone that knows the hole cards, that is why he is willing to play so loose pre-flop, he could care less about his equity pre-flop, bad odds or good odds to call, equity/position and your odds are useless when you know your opponents hole cards.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:06 PM   #6803
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
From Doug Polk's video. 1$/3$ 1000bb deep PLO. Good high stakes player have hourly pretty close to 1k$ easily in those games. And then those are smallest stakes he played?


Lol
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:08 PM   #6804
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Still *crickets* from the California Gaming Control Commission? Did they take the week off?
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:08 PM   #6805
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by MasterLJ View Post
He is not there, and hasn't been for 4-5 days. I also haven't seen Taylor, but can't confirm he hasn't been working.

They've promoted a few dealers into floor manager training too (good people imo).

There are "serious business" people there, who stick out, and are there until like 6ish.

Other than that, seems business as usual. It's been slow there even before this fiasco and it's about the same.
Good update, but I was hoping CSI would be in there confiscating all their electronic equipment to search for evidence.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:09 PM   #6806
PassiveIsBetter
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Brocktoon View Post
Lol
?

It's like you win one extra HU all in pot every three hour of play. 1000bb deep PLO edges against not so shiny players can be massive.

Not doable? I disagree. Not doable against best player of the world yes, not doable against typical amateur players who barely know PLO rules? For sure it is.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:09 PM   #6807
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by matt hirschhorn View Post
Im not sure this guy is arguing that mike postle is not guilty, I think he is disputing my comment that having a VPIP of 63% at full table 1/3 2/5 is almost never optimal.
Ok well yeah it's not optimal to be vpiping 63% in any NLHE full ring game unless you can see the cards of course. That should be obvious to any pro.

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Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
From Doug Polk's video. 1$/3$ 1000bb deep PLO. Good high stakes player have hourly pretty close to 1k$ easily in those games. And then those are smallest stakes he played?
That's a pretty ridiculous statement. You are incorrect.

Last edited by SimpleRick; 10-09-2019 at 03:16 PM.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:10 PM   #6808
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Cmefly View Post
This thread got me to finally register for an account and post...

Just a thought -- it would make sense for the plaintiffs to try to get damages from Stones as they are the deep pocket and a fraud theory would be the maximal outcome. I wonder if they could argue a theory that Stones encouraged and fostered the environment where Postle was propped up as the local hero who liked to gamble, and that induced other players to come play at Stones leading them to lose their money. Stone made a material misrepresentation that Postle was an action player who played fairly and created large, profitable games. The players relied upon this material misrepresentation to believe they were playing in a fair game and lost their money. If such a theory could be viable, they could claim actual damages for all money lost while they were there, not just the money they lost to Postle. There's a lot of evidence that the live streams promoted Postle as poker Jesus and Postle's style of play as being a unique characteristic of poker at Stones (I've seen numerous clips where the commentators make statements of this nature). Poker players like to play in action games as the potential financial benefit is usually greater in action games.

The hard part is to prove proximate injury as a result of the misrepresentation apart from what was lost to Postle. But then if you can have testimony about tilt and how large losing sessions can cause players to take on more risk and can increase losses.

It's a bit sketchy, but it could increase the amount of actual damages that can be accessed and target Stones. They really need to survive motion practice to ratchet up the settlement pressure.
I'm all for creative lawyering, and this is what you basically have to try to prove as a plaintiff's lawyer, but this is going to run into problems both on the elements of fraud and punitive damages. WRT the elements of fraud, did Stones really make any representation at all other than that this guy ran like a God at the poker table? They never said he was honest or anything. Indeed, on multiple occasions, their employees actually implied he might know his opponents' cards.

And WRT to punitive damages, in California, the "malice fraud or oppression" standard is interpreted tightly. It isn't enough to represent to the world that your game is honest and it isn't. Punitives are reserved for the most serious, despicable conduct, where a party conceives and executes a scheme to deliberately injure the plaintiffs. Obviously, Postle qualifies for that, as do his accomplices. But is that really what the casino was doing?
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:12 PM   #6809
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Please stop posting this video, its 21.23min I can never get back! I thought you were banned??
Nope. Why would I be banned? I'm trying to find out truth and if I can help solving the puzzle. And don't you think it's a plausible scenario?
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:15 PM   #6810
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Nope. Why would I be banned? I'm trying to find out truth and if I can help solving the puzzle. And don't you think it's a plausible scenario?
godeep promised to post better so received a last-minute reprieve from the governor

now we are waiting for his improved posting to begin

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Old 10-09-2019, 03:15 PM   #6811
lawdude
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
To piggy back on this, would it also be possible to go after possible winnings a player might have received in the session had there not been a cheater present? So not only would they get their lost money back, but also some expected ROI on the session, which I think one of the British casinos attempted to do against Ivey, not sure they were successful in that, but they went after not only the money they lost, but the money they expected to have won from Ivey had he not been edge sorting. Could they also go after phycological damages incurred from being decimated by a cheater? Mental game is huge in poker, and the psychological damages to a players confidence in their game after playing week after week with a cheater could have seriously affected their potential to earn income at the tables in any games they played on or off stream.
In a legal vacuum, the plaintiffs are entitled to their out of pocket damages, which are calculated as:

H - A

Where:

H = the amount they would have won or lost had Postle played honestly.
A = the actual amount they won or lost in hands Postle played.

The problem is a matter of proof. You could try to hire an expert who could write a report calculating H for each Plaintiff. But it's going to cost a lot of money to prepare and it might still get excluded as speculative. Are we going to make Postle a hypothetical TAG? A TAGfish? A LAG? What post-flop skills are we going to counterfactually assign to him? How are we going to know what his bet sizing is going to be, or when he is going to fold?

In contrast, the $250,000 that he actually won is a usable estimate of the plaintiffs' damages that will require no expert report and no risk that an expensive expert will be excluded at trial.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:16 PM   #6812
HensonLosesLots
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
From Doug Polk's video. 1$/3$ 1000bb deep PLO. Good high stakes player have hourly pretty close to 1k$ easily in those games. And then those are smallest stakes he played?
LoL wut. Omaha has way too high of a variance for $1k hourly at 1-3... maybe at the very best of sessions but that's not average.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:18 PM   #6813
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
In a legal vacuum, the plaintiffs are entitled to their out of pocket damages, which are calculated as:

H - A

Where:

H = the amount they would have won or lost had Postle played honestly.
A = the actual amount they won or lost in hands Postle played.

The problem is a matter of proof. You could try to hire an expert who could write a report calculating H for each Plaintiff. But it's going to cost a lot of money to prepare and it might still get excluded as speculative. Are we going to make Postle a hypothetical TAG? A TAGfish? A LAG? What post-flop skills are we going to counterfactually assign to him? How are we going to know what his bet sizing is going to be, or when he is going to fold?

In contrast, the $250,000 that he actually won is a usable estimate of the plaintiffs' damages that will require no expert report and no risk that an expensive expert will be excluded at trial.
They are asking for a pro rata amount per player based on the amount of time they each played with Postle, not trying to figure out how much each won/lost or were cheated out of.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:19 PM   #6814
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

lawdude,

H is incalculable.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:19 PM   #6815
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
I'm all for creative lawyering, and this is what you basically have to try to prove as a plaintiff's lawyer, but this is going to run into problems both on the elements of fraud and punitive damages. WRT the elements of fraud, did Stones really make any representation at all other than that this guy ran like a God at the poker table? They never said he was honest or anything. Indeed, on multiple occasions, their employees actually implied he might know his opponents' cards.

And WRT to punitive damages, in California, the "malice fraud or oppression" standard is interpreted tightly. It isn't enough to represent to the world that your game is honest and it isn't. Punitives are reserved for the most serious, despicable conduct, where a party conceives and executes a scheme to deliberately injure the plaintiffs. Obviously, Postle qualifies for that, as do his accomplices. But is that really what the casino was doing?
Thanks for the response. My knowledge of fraud pleadings is only what I learned in school and I am not familiar with CA law, so the clarification is much appreciated. I guess I was thinking of something analogous to an implied warranty in that "Hey, we're running a live stream of you playing poker" carries with it an implied representation that the casino would be taking reasonable care in maintaining security and preventing its employees from sharing card info with another player.

Also my point was more trying to expand the actual damages pool beyond the $250K directly won by Postle. It does seem that punitive damages against Stones is unlikely.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:19 PM   #6816
PassiveIsBetter
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by HensonLosesLots View Post
LoL wut. Omaha has way too high of a variance for $1k hourly at 1-3... maybe at the very best of sessions but that's not average.
Best sessions are like +50k$ in these games.

3k$ in front of you (at start and then some point most players have more) and very loose PF play, 6 max.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:21 PM   #6817
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by SimpleRick View Post
They are asking for a pro rata amount per player based on the amount of time they each played with Postle, not trying to figure out how much each won/lost or were cheated out of.
That's not necessarily what they are asking for in court. That's a private agreement among the plaintiffs to divide up any award.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:23 PM   #6818
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
Best sessions are like +50k$ in these games.

3k$ in front of you (at start and then some point most players have more) and very loose PF play, 6 max.
you said 100 bb at 1-3 != $3k stacks.... that's 5-10+
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:24 PM   #6819
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by HensonLosesLots View Post
you said 100 bb at 1-3 != $3k stacks.... that's 5-10+
I said 1000bb. It's like 10/20 (maybe just slighly less) online since PF everyone is just so call happy.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:26 PM   #6820
HensonLosesLots
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
I said 1000bb. It's like 10/20 online since PF everyone is just so call happy.
Oh ok still think you being super generous on that estimate.

Omaha is swongy game.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:30 PM   #6821
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Oh ok still think you being super generous on that estimate.

Omaha is swongy game.
Maybe slightly. But like 500$/hour is a very conservative estimate for a good high stakes player.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:35 PM   #6822
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
I said 1000bb. It's like 10/20 (maybe just slighly less) online since PF everyone is just so call happy.
Just for clarification, do you think mike postle cheated? Or are you in the middle?

You keep saying he plays good, you do realize mikes winrate was not known until people started suspecting his play was bizzare, then people started breaking down his win-rate.

I don't know how you can watch his runs where he is cheating and say he plays good, the guy just literally plays like someone that knows his opponents hole cards. If you consider consistently bluffing in 3-5 way pots at 1/3 with 9 high good, I guess then.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:35 PM   #6823
SimpleRick
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
That's not necessarily what they are asking for in court. That's a private agreement among the plaintiffs to divide up any award.
No that's what I read in the lawsuit. Line 138.

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link...e-dc7d1610c53b
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:40 PM   #6824
PassiveIsBetter
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by matt hirschhorn View Post
Just for clarification, do you think mike postle cheated? Or are you in the middle?

You keep saying he plays good, you do realize mikes winrate was not known until people started suspecting his play was bizzare, then people started breaking down his win-rate.
I just don't want to take sides. No idea. Seems to play solid poker. Hard to say after that. Player goes all in with 54o is not an evidence. There is many players it's good idea against at times (fold too much, and if called you are guarenteed with action later).

1000bb deep winrates are much higher than in 100bb. Live games are played bigger than online.

It's even possible to breakeven player to run hotter than sun and win 250k$ games that are as big as Postle played.

Last edited by PassiveIsBetter; 10-09-2019 at 03:49 PM.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:42 PM   #6825
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Any4Johnny! View Post
This Def affecting poker in genral yestersay I heard multiple fish at private games make jokes/hints that winner has RFID info. After the whale made these jokes/commentes I re thought about making a hero call against him I was sure was good just bc might look bad bc im connected to running the game.
Have the decks improved so much that they are indistinguishable from normal cards? Last time I played in a streamed game they were slightly thicker and lumpy, you could tell where the chip and antenna were. They were also "poker" sized instead of the "bridge" size people usually play with.
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