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Old 10-07-2019, 11:29 PM   #5876
pghduilaw
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
I am a civil litigator. But civil litigators use expert testimony and complex statistical evidence too.

And I think the error you make (and I think it's actually a whopper of an error) is assuming that in any way this case is nothing more than a morass of statistics. This case is actually EASIER to explain than many federal financial fraud cases, and the DOJ routinely wins those despite facing the best defense attorneys around.

If you are actually an experienced prosecutor (and I have no doubt you are), I am very shocked that you see this case as complex. This case is NOT dependent on statistics. It's dependent on things juries understand perfectly well, such as the presence or absence of cell phones, looking at the crotch, friends being in and out of town, and bulges in the hats. You are acting like what the prosecutor would do here is spend days explaining poker statistics to a jury. But only the dumbest prosecutor would do that here. You don't have to, and it's not the way to win cases like this.
The problem with your perspective is that you, as someone familiar with poker and this situation, are making certain assumptions that a jury might not. In a game where people were allowed to use cell phones (at least initially) there are many arguments as to why he looked at his cell phone often - checking on his kid, acting as an agent, watching sports center etc. At that point one has to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that his actions were guided by some outside information. One could argue that he looked at his cell phone all the time and also won because he was a superior player or just lucky. You then have to explain to a jury that he made certain decisions after looking at his cell phone which were not normal under the circumstances. Does looking at his phone look suspicious? Maybe, but does that prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he was cheating - not necessarily.

I recently was involved in a homicide trial where there was surveillance video of the defendant entering the murder scene soon before the murder happened. No one else was on video other than the victim. The prosecutor argued that no one else could have committed the murder. However, there was, potentially, another way into the building with no camera. This was enough to confuse the jury and the defendant was found not guilty.

My point is that with the high burden of proof in criminal cases a conviction is never certain. As to looking at crotches and bulging hats things like that tend to be less convincing than you might think. There is a phenomenon that prosecutors deal witb regularly known as "the CSI effect". Because of media portrayals of criminal law - jurors expect hard scientific evidence in most cases. That means that in a case like this a jury would want to see proof of the "hacking" not just a puffy hat or a crotch look.

An experienced attorney would argue " are you going to convict because of a hat or because he looked at his cell phone?" Most jurors would have a hard time with that without evidence of what was on the phone or in the hat. I had cases where police testified that they saw the murder suspect throw the gun in the bushes after the shooting. However, the jury wouldn't convict because the defendant's fingerlrints weren't on the gun. This despite expert testimony that it is notoriously difficult to recover fingerprints from firearms.

Again, my point isn't that conviction isn't possible but that, in a criminal prosecution at least, it is far more complicated than you believe.

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Old 10-07-2019, 11:32 PM   #5877
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Obviously it's all speculation, maybe they just found the dumbest possible people they could for commentators (in terms of poker knowledge).
They took a bunch of former poker dealers and made them commentators. Have you ever heard poker dealers talk about poker before? Clearly not. Who the hell cares about their knowledge of poker. They were commentating on low stakes games for a small stream in some podunk poker room that nobody even plays at. You think they're going to hire Doug Polk to do the commentary or something?

BTW, the fact that you think these commentators have the least amount of poker knowledge tells me that you clearly have never set foot in a poker room in your life because I could literally point out dozens and dozens of people that know less about poker than them. The people I would point out also happen to be their main target audience.

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At some point they tell them something like, "Ok we have this player Mike, he is basically a Poker god and it is good for our show if you hype him up as much as you can. If he makes a play you don't understand it is because hes light years better than poker than you so just pretend like you get it. Don't question his plays."

Even if this is the case then the commentators are kind of in on it to a degree.
By that logic anyone that hyped up Lance Armstrong must have been in on it too. If the commentators didn't know he was cheating then they were not in on anything. Furthermore, it was not their job to police the games. Period.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:33 PM   #5878
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Scott7x View Post
Obviously it's all speculation, maybe they just found the dumbest possible people they could for commentators (in terms of poker knowledge). At some point they tell them something like, "Ok we have this player Mike, he is basically a Poker god and it is good for our show if you hype him up as much as you can. If he makes a play you don't understand it is because hes light years better than poker than you so just pretend like you get it. Don't question his plays."

Even if this is the case then the commentators are kind of in on it to a degree. They would not be liable for anything they have done but the people who told them to sell this bill of goods would be.
While I sort of understand what you're saying, that's really not being "in on it". To me, that phrase implies that they are aware of what's going on.

Your theory, as I've said before, is plausible. Them actually being part of the cheating and integral to the plan is what I think would be a stretch. I'm not sure which it is that Xenicide is suggesting, because he/she seems to not be interested in a lot more than sarcasm and insults now, so I can't be bothered to ask.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:36 PM   #5879
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
They took a bunch of former poker dealers and made them commentators. Have you ever heard poker dealers talk about poker before? Clearly not. Who the hell cares about their knowledge of poker. They were commentating on low stakes games for a small stream in some podunk poker room that nobody even plays at. You think they're going to hire Doug Polk to do the commentary or something?

BTW, the fact that you think these commentators have the least amount of poker knowledge tells me that you clearly have never set foot in a poker room in your life because I could literally point out dozens and dozens of people that know less about poker than them. The people I would point out also happen to be their main target audience.



By that logic anyone that hyped up Lance Armstrong must have been in on it too. If the commentators didn't know he was cheating then they were not in on anything. Furthermore, it was not their job to police the games. Period.
I meant the least amount of poker knowledge for someone who could form semi-coherent thoughts about poker for 4 hours on stream.
Why did you cut out the last sentence. I said they would not be liable, but it means that something fishy was going on with the commentating in general. Its not their fault but the person who told them to say these things are at fault.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:36 PM   #5880
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Gump is talking on Twitch now:

https://www.twitch.tv/hustlerhunny
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:37 PM   #5881
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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He is up 100s of thousands of dollars. He could easily take a shot at 10/20. HPC has/had a 5/10 no cap buyin. Its idiocy to think someone up that much would not at least try moving up. Commerce has a $5/10 game you can buyin for 500-1500. That is a super juicy game with tons of Persian jewelers around. I've made a **** ton of money on that game. He could easily afford to give higher stakes a go.
He doesn't because he can't. He does not have the money. His reasoning that he doesn't play in other rooms is because of his family. Yet, he plays $100 tournaments at least weekly? A dude who made a quarter million last year but doesn't move up because of his family fires $100 tournaments at least once a week just out of...the love of the game?
Does anyone buy this?

I know crushers, people who have won big titles online and off and not blown the money on cocaine, hookers, sports or whatever. They're not wasting 12 hours a week playing $100 live tournaments.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:38 PM   #5882
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I also should clarify that all of my comments apply to criminal prosecution only. Civil litigation such as that being filed by Mac VerStandig has a lower burden of proof and a completely different discovery process. I have very little experience in civil litigation and have no basis to form an opinion on the chance of recovery from MP or Stones in that arena.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:38 PM   #5883
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Commerce has a $5/10 game you can buyin for 500-1500. That is a super juicy game with tons of Persian jewelers around. I've made a **** ton of money on that game. He could easily afford to give higher stakes a go.
He was buying in for more than that in the games he was playing. He doesn't live in LA so you're asking him to waste a lot of time and money when he's a single father that has a daughter to raise. How is the pro to rec ratio in those games compared to the games Postle was playing in?

Trying to argue that he was playing in the wrong games is really lol. The games he was playing in were super juicy.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:40 PM   #5884
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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He doesn't because he can't. He does not have the money. His reasoning that he doesn't play in other rooms is because of his family. Yet, he plays $100 tournaments at least weekly? A dude who made a quarter million last year but doesn't move up because of his family fires $100 tournaments at least once a week just out of...the love of the game?
Does anyone buy this?
No, which is why it's so curious that you've made so many posts about it.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:46 PM   #5885
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Wild Card View Post
My point is that he mucked that hand, face down, nobody at the table saw it except Mike.
So it doesn't matter what Mike did or didn't say afterwards to anyone. He could say anything.

I'm curious if there is a timestamp of them talking within 30 mins of that hand? Not that it means anything if they did talk (because Mike can lie).
But it does prove something, if they didn't talk in that time window.

If the RFID doesn't know the cards, and noone else saw the cards, then there is no other information.
I think the RFID computer was right, and he did have 88.
This seems like a valuable call out.

https://youtu.be/0vaF0kwjQhg?t=1505

JFK types in youtube chat (quote):
"I went and asked him, turned open ended and rivered a pair"

If 'went' means physically went and asked him... maybe that timestamp would be visible on the video with the 30 minute delay...

Also, good point Wild Card... why change the RFID feed based on a player mucking his hand and saying: Oh that hand? I had 87o...

After hearing that, management changes the card graphics on live stream? after not even seeing the hand but just hearing what a player said he has... frankly...

NOTE: it appears Mike may be talking to JFK at exactly 30 minutes after the comments... but of course, changing the graphics based on a player's memory of a hand is a little much

Last edited by honkyblood; 10-07-2019 at 11:55 PM.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:46 PM   #5886
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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No, which is why it's so curious that you've made so many posts about it.
So, to get this straight: you believe his explanation and do not view his behaviour as unusual?
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:46 PM   #5887
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by 27AllIn View Post
What's the most popular theory?
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Originally Posted by n00ki5 View Post
Mike, Justin and graphic's guy (Lance?)
From what I've seen it appears to be Mike, Justin and Taylor with Lance getting some consideration. If it's three out of four of them you can get a $1 trifecta box for $24 but you would obviously key Mike as the winner to reduce your cost.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:46 PM   #5888
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
He was buying in for more than that in the games he was playing. He doesn't live in LA so you're asking him to waste a lot of time and money when he's a single father that has a daughter to raise. How is the pro to rec ratio in those games compared to the games Postle was playing in?



Trying to argue that he was playing in the wrong games is really lol. The games he was playing in were super juicy.
A solid player could make good money on those tables. I've been up 20K + in 5har game. Some of the jewelers like to call, period, if they are in a hand. I've caught flights to Vegas on Southwest from Burbank for $50. He could afford <10% of his "hourly rate" on a flight.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:48 PM   #5889
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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....I know crushers, people who have won big titles online and off and not blown the money on cocaine, hookers, sports or whatever. They're not wasting 12 hours a week playing $100 live tournaments.
Solid players, not even crushers, would not waste time on $100 games in that scenario.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:49 PM   #5890
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Scott7x;55492862
Why did you cut out the last sentence. I said they would not be liable, but it means that something fishy was going on with the commentating in general. [B
Its not their fault but the person who told them to say these things are at fault.[/B]
Not necessarily. It's very possible that, as an example, JFK was just trying to grow the stream and wanted to use his poker hero, Mike Postle, to grow it.

The casino should be at fault for not running secure games and for allowing a cheater to run rampant over its customers but that doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the commentary.

I cut it out your last sentence because I was not commenting on it. This time I cut out your first sentence(s).
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:54 PM   #5891
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Wild Card View Post
25:25 Kasey: "Justin just said he didn't have 88, he had 78"
It's not necessarily Justin's idea.
Either someone on the team told Justin this fake info, to relay it to Kasey, or the idea came out of Justin's head.
That hand is kinda old news, but it's definitely crucial to the investigation.
JFK is intermittently patrolling the room. You can see him behind Mike just after the 88 v TT hand at 21:32. At other times, he was behind that wall he's just emerged from, possibly watching a live feed, possibly with holecards up.
JFK was also active in the stream chat when it was broadcast half an hour later. You can see him chatting on there (he has a moderator's spanner icon), and that's where Casey saw JFK's claim that Mike had 87.

At some point, JFK may have spoken to Postle. If you keep watching the video (for 25 minutes after the hand), maybe you'll see him speak to him directly. Or maybe he texted. Or maybe he invented the whole idea. I believe he actually says in the chatbox "I went and asked him".

To summarize a few possible realities:
1. JFK was watching live but without knowing holecards, or just noticed a big hand that intrigued him while he was roaming the floor. JFK spoke to Postle to ask him what he had in that hand where the board came 994T8 and Postle flat-out lied, and JFK believed him, and JFK then unwittingly passed on this lie to the YouTube chat later on.
2. JFK was 'secretly' watching with holecards up and couldn't believe Postle's play, so went and asked him about it, and believed the lie about the RFID failure, so passed it on in the chatbox later.
3. JFK was aware of the cheating, so pretended to have spoken to Postle, and invented the story about a holecard mix up, when the hand came up on the YouTube stream.
4. The RFID was wrong, and Postle told the truth for once in his life, and Justin relayed correct information. (lol)

There may be another scenario I haven't thought of. With all these suspicious activities regarding staff in the room, you have to consider that there might in some cases be a "normal" explanation. None of the above scenarios look good for Justin Keraitus though. He's either naive, gullible, and negligent about livestream security, or a cheat.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:56 PM   #5892
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Not necessarily. It's very possible that, as an example, JFK was just trying to grow the stream and wanted to use his poker hero, Mike Postle, to grow it.

The casino should be at fault for not running secure games and for allowing a cheater to run rampant over its customers but that doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the commentary.

I cut it out your last sentence because I was not commenting on it. This time I cut out your first sentence(s).
Yeah but your point wouldn't have made any sense about Lance if you included my last sentence where i said the commentators werent liable.
W/e i made my point. Nothing else to say take it for what its worth.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:56 PM   #5893
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by R*R View Post
From what I've seen it appears to be Mike, Justin and Taylor with Lance getting some consideration. If it's three out of four of them you can get a $1 trifecta box for $24 but you would obviously key Mike as the winner to reduce your cost.
We might have a carryover to the next case as i highly doubt there will be THREE finisher in this case.... i would just put those $24 on Mike to win a 1/20 odds and take the $1.20 profit.....Exacta might be a good bet, but i am still not convinced about Justin "knowingly doing anything".

From the first few posts it looks to me like Mike has a key/team viewer/access mode and with that he sees the stream/hole cards.....Do i believe Justin is involved? YES i think he might have given access to the peek room, or the stream key or something like that... COULD that have been without knowing about the "fix"? I think it could be.. dont forget that Mike has a lot of tech experience and i would have no problem believing that he might have said to his buddy that he would like to have a look at the system, because XXX or XXX.... This seems his easiest way in, or he just went in when no one was there and the peek room was open as others have posted (and i am taking for granted)....
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:57 PM   #5894
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I checked the video, it appears that Mike is talking to a man in a suit (JFK) 30 minutes later after youtube chat...

but Wild Card's point is: noone but mike saw the hand he actually had

Last edited by honkyblood; 10-08-2019 at 12:19 AM.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:58 PM   #5895
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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A solid player could make good money on those tables. I've been up 20K + in 5har game. Some of the jewelers like to call, period, if they are in a hand. I've caught flights to Vegas on Southwest from Burbank for $50. He could afford <10% of his "hourly rate" on a flight.
A solid player could make good money on the tables I've witnessed at Stones. How often do you fly to Stones? LoL @ flying to Vegas if you are looking for the best games.

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So, to get this straight: you believe his explanation and do not view his behaviour as unusual?
Given the situation, why the hell would i believe him about anything? Why would anyone? Nobody believes him. No need to write a dozen posts about why he isn't a great crusher. He is not stealing anyone's glory because nobody believes him.
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Old 10-08-2019, 12:06 AM   #5896
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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If you look at this thread from just the right angle, it's the greatest game of Werewolf ever played ...
I want to hear more from the potential wolves.
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Old 10-08-2019, 12:07 AM   #5897
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
A solid player could make good money on the tables I've witnessed at Stones. How often do you fly to Stones? LoL @ flying to Vegas if you are looking for the best games.



Given the situation, why the hell would i believe him about anything? Why would anyone? Nobody believes him. No need to write a dozen posts about why he isn't a great crusher. He is not stealing anyone's glory because nobody believes him.
My point isn't that he's stealing my valour as a winning poker player or anything to that tune. It's that as you state, he is obviously a liar. Then, it's important to know why this began. People largely steal money because they need money.

Whether or not Mike crushed it earlier in the poker scene, no one seems to think he cheated until quite recently. Why? Was it just his idea? Did he have help? Where has the money gone? His brother stated he's always looked for an edge or cheated. Is it possible his cheating goes even further but we won't know about other instances off stream?
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Old 10-08-2019, 12:11 AM   #5898
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
LoL @ flying to Vegas if you are looking for the best games.
Did I give a reason why I flew to Vegas to play or did I use the cost of the trip as an example? Same went for San Francisco. PS...never went to SF for poker.
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Old 10-08-2019, 12:13 AM   #5899
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Seen a few comments about JFKs whereabouts during the 88 hand and I found this a few days ago

Again, the best evidence by far we have of interference from a Stones employee is the 86o/98ss hand where the graphics change. There is no other explanation for that and Taylor is confirmed to be on graphics that session.

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Originally Posted by HarryKane09 View Post
IMPORTANT THOUGHTS ON JUSTIN.

Ok. I have been thinking the last couple of days that Justin was 100% involved BUT I am now thinking that I might have been wrong.

I remembered this hand where Postle has 88vTT on the 992T8 and just flats the river. This was at 21 min in this video

https://youtu.be/0vaF0kwjQhg?t=1305

At 27 min JFK comes into the chat and clears it up for him. Originally I was thinking that this was Justin knowing this was a **** up and he had to think on this feet.



JFK coming in with the RFID error and then the extra info about Mike being good but not that good certainly looks like someone trying to cover their tracks.

I had watched the stream 30 minutes from the hand to see if he spoke to Justin and couldn't see anything, so therefore I thought this was him just doing his thing in the backroom.

Today I watched a little longer.

https://youtu.be/0vaF0kwjQhg?t=3274

At 54.30 Justin appears in the background and is in conversation with Mike for a short while.



Now this timeline makes more sense and looks better for Justin.

He was in the booth watching the 30min delayed feed and Youtube chat at 21min/51min his time.

The hand went down, chat was confused about the flat. Justin leaves the booth and asks Mike at 54.30.

The original chat from JFK is then on the stream at 27min, so just after 54.30 stream time.

This certainly looks good for Justin as he wasn't covering for Mike without talking to him. Justin could genuinely believe this was an RFID error.

I still think Justin was involved, but this is the first time that there is doubt in my mind.
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Old 10-08-2019, 12:17 AM   #5900
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post
My point isn't that he's stealing my valour as a winning poker player or anything to that tune. It's that as you state, he is obviously a liar. Then, it's important to know why this began. People largely steal money because they need money.

Whether or not Mike crushed it earlier in the poker scene, no one seems to think he cheated until quite recently. Why? Was it just his idea? Did he have help? Where has the money gone? His brother stated he's always looked for an edge or cheated. Is it possible his cheating goes even further but we won't know about other instances off stream?
Its come out that he bets sports a ton. Someone said that Mike was known to go busto and borrow money even within the last year which makes no sense given his results here. He was also an agent on ppoker which is a chinese app that has agents handle their player funds. Imagine knowing your agent bets sports? My theory is he fell behind because he was using player funds to bet sports and got buried. Thats when he started to cheat and a combination of him being burying, still betting sports, paying back moneys hers borrowing to play in the game, and losing on ppoker himself he had to put in these huge hourlys or wouldn't have got back to even.

So many people are speculating that he overdid it because the money was being split 3-4 ways. I would bet if he was a crusher he almost certainly cant beat 2-5 nl without cheating today. Any crusher that decided to take this unethical plunge would know what to do to make it look good. This guy thinks what hes doing is obtainable by doable. He has the ability to watch the replay of his crimes to make sure next time he does it he gets better at it and either ignores it or just thinks what he did looks legit over a long sample. Hes not a crusher hes an idiot.
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