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10-07-2019, 08:50 PM   #5751
wtfdidido
banned

Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: ZOG's clownworld
Posts: 135
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by momentaryblip Some lul descriptions of MP's playing ability and talent in this thread. I mean when you are playing against a God... https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...0&postcount=14
"He plays very loose preflop and plays very well postflop. He has tremendous poker instincts."

10-07-2019, 08:54 PM   #5752
a dewd
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2016
Location: west of the easternmost pt up north
Posts: 3,920
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Redgrape I'm doing some analysis of the data in R. I'm going to look at a lot of different factors, but here's a cursory look at keys and phone in lap as variables. I turned those columns into 1's as yes and 0 as no. I did a simple OLS regression to see how well those variables predicted his profit. Having keys on the table or phone on your lap should have no significance and no predictive power of his results, just like the color of his shirt or whether its raining. The keys on the table have no predictive power to how much he profits and has a very high p value, just like we would expect. This throws cold water on the theory about the keys. Even if I look at the most recent 30 sessions, still absolutely 0 predictive power on his profit. https://imgur.com/a/S3H9JAj However, the phone being on his lap or not has remarkable significance. https://imgur.com/a/2sZuLYw The p value is super low, which means this variable is very significant. When his phone was in his lap, he won an average of \$4,546 per session. When his phone wasn't in his lap, he won an average of \$227 per session. This should not matter at all if the person is playing fair. But whether his phone was in his lap or not significantly predict how much he wins. This is not deep statistical analysis, I'm just using OLS. I encourage data scientists to look at the Postle spreadsheet and do your own research. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1252155464
Wow. Great effort.

10-07-2019, 09:05 PM   #5753
jal300
journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 326
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by unlucky4some Umm, just like I shouldn't dabble in law just because I watch Matlock, you shouldn't dabble in computers because you watch CSI. Really, wiping and restoring a single-purpose computer like this is so trivial it's not even funny. Export configuration. Wipe drive. Reinstall windows and drivers from OEM DVD. Reinstall application. Reconfigure and re-apply exported configuration. FBI: "Hey, why is the install on this machine fresh?" JFK: "We thought we might have had a backdoor or a trojan, so we wiped it and re-installed everything." FBI: "You might have destroyed evidence! What were you thinking?" JFK: "Oh, sorry, we though we had a virus. On a critical machine like this it is SOP to re-install." FBI: "Grrrrr."
This made me laugh and interestingly enough, message my own IT guy at my company to ask if one of my employees could do this on our company computers. His short answer was "no"; something about my employees not having administrative access to install/uninstall anything. So, do you believe all Stones' employees have administrative access? I don't know. What I do know, granted it's merely anecdotal, every job I ever had where the company issued me a laptop or computer; all I could do was use the laptop/computer and the programs on it. I couldn't even install a different calendar program without having to get an IT guy to do it. I suspect alot of companies lock down their computers in a similar fashion. But who knows.

10-07-2019, 09:05 PM   #5754
Naismith
journeyman

Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 231
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dream Crusher I'm still quite partial to that 2x pot shove with AK to bluff AK off a chop: https://youtu.be/xUMt--bML6o?t=9837
I love this hand. My favorite part is his table talk after his shove, while the other dude is tanking. He's not even pretending to try to get a hero call out of a worse hand because he knows his opponent's entire range is AK.

10-07-2019, 09:07 PM   #5755
wiiziwiig
old hand

Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,407
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:

While it is possible Mike did all of this by himself, it is not very likely. If you were to tell me that someone cheated on a stream, I would immediately think 3 ppl were involved. Guy playing, guy with authority ie floorman, guy on production. Now this is not enough to just randomly pick Justin just for being the floorman in charge. There is circumstantial evidence supporting this claim. This type of post comes up at least once or twice a day, and it is quite tilting for someone who has been actively involved. Guy with <10 posts writes a long post summarizing everything and then questions this and that. My advice, if you want to be heard, get involved with the discussion. Bring up evidence. Justin is extremely likely to be involved. It has been spoken about ad nauseam how it has been spoken about ad nauseam that he is involved. You've seen us here defend the commentators, that there is just not enough data to find them culpable, even when Joey and Doug say that they are highly suspicious. There is more than a reasonable doubt, that Justin is involved. Yes, it is possible he isn't, but the data we have to go on shows that he most likely is.

10-07-2019, 09:09 PM   #5756
Xenicide
journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 223
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:

Watch this video and tell me the commentators and justin are innocent. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. If you truly watched any of the shady footage from the commentators I find it very hard to believe anybody can say that they are not even suspicious. There is no more evidence to find for Mike. Mike did it everybody knows that, what we dont know is who the accomplice(s) are. Also claiming mike might have done this all on his own just makes me think your trying to defend someone other than mike thats probably guilty.

10-07-2019, 09:12 PM   #5757
Philbo
enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 54
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by jal300 Can you provide a link where the California Gaming Commission has confirmed that there is an active investigation?

Stone's said the gaming commission is investigating.

10-07-2019, 09:15 PM   #5758
lvprof
centurion

Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 128
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by wiiziwiig While it is possible Mike did all of this by himself, it is not very likely. If you were to tell me that someone cheated on a stream, I would immediately think 3 ppl were involved. Guy playing, guy with authority ie floorman, guy on production. Now this is not enough to just randomly pick Justin just for being the floorman in charge. There is circumstantial evidence supporting this claim. This type of post comes up at least once or twice a day, and it is quite tilting for someone who has been actively involved. Guy with <10 posts writes a long post summarizing everything and then questions this and that. My advice, if you want to be heard, get involved with the discussion. Bring up evidence. Justin is extremely likely to be involved. It has been spoken about ad nauseam how it has been spoken about ad nauseam that he is involved. You've seen us here defend the commentators, that there is just not enough data to find them culpable, even when Joey and Doug say that they are highly suspicious. There is more than a reasonable doubt, that Justin is involved. Yes, it is possible he isn't, but the data we have to go on shows that he most likely is.
There is also a chance that people were added as time goes. Lets say the offchance Mike did this on his own and got trojan on justins laptop as they were close friends. He didn't start out with bone conducting headphones right away maybe he was getting worried about looking at his phone too often. He would have had someone receive the same raw data hes getting but relay it to him via the headphones. A tweet was posted earlier in the thread someone reporting Mike to Justin months ago. There is a chance he wasn't in on it but rather just started to cover for his friend or maybe this is when he got himself in on it.

There's a chance that whoever hes working with may not be behind the scenes either. If Mike was able to put trojan on and needed someone to relay the information to him he wouldn't pick someone who's behind the scenes.

Also Godeep is clearly either Mike or his accomplice. In the offchance you're serious....the reason mike doesn't get a stake for nosebleeds is hes not a crusher in 2019. It can debated what he did 14 years ago but isn't worth the debate because its irrelevant.

Also we may wanna look closely at what topics where being discussed when godeep popped up because hes clearly trying to take away from the real discussion by making people respond to him.

Last edited by lvprof; 10-07-2019 at 09:21 PM.

10-07-2019, 09:17 PM   #5759
parisron
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 14,924
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Philbo http://www.capradio.org/articles/201...gambling-hall/ Stone's said the gaming commission is investigating.
"Stones Gambling Hall says it has hired a former U.S. attorney to investigate the accusations. The California Gambling Control Board is investigating, as well, according to Stones, but the agency declined to confirm or comment."

"The Department of Justice is investigating a professional poker player for hundreds of thousands of dollars in Texas Hold 'em wins at Stones Gambling Hall in Citrus Heights"

Thanks.

 10-07-2019, 09:17 PM #5760 Makonnen old hand     Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,358 Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) If you look at this thread from just the right angle, it's the greatest game of Werewolf ever played ...
10-07-2019, 09:18 PM   #5761
+rep_lol
banned

Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 14,904
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bobboufl11 Thanks for running this. \$100/hr seems reasonable for a crusher at soft&deep \$1/\$3 and \$5/\$5 mix
i even mis-spoke earlier and said he would never expect a >500bb downswing, but it's actually far more absurd. mike's results are nearly 6 times the upper end of any expected distribution of cards over a 400 hour sample for the strongest players in the game. with a ~275bb/100 winrate, it says the minimum bankroll required for <5% risk of ruin is a whopping 54 big blinds.

to clarify, what that means is that in any given 400 hour sample of poker from mike, there would only be a 5% chance that he ever once lost >54bb in a hand or even had a 54bb downswing- and this is with an observed vpip >60, doing **** like coldcalling 4bets with 95o.

LOL

it's statistically impossible that he isn't cheating.

10-07-2019, 09:21 PM   #5762
GobboGrandchild
newbie

Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 23
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Xenicide https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4EJ6otUu0Q&t=100s Watch this video and tell me the commentators and justin are innocent. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. If you truly watched any of the shady footage from the commentators I find it very hard to believe anybody can say that they are not even suspicious. There is no more evidence to find for Mike. Mike did it everybody knows that, what we dont know is who the accomplice(s) are. Also claiming mike might have done this all on his own just makes me think your trying to defend someone other than mike thats probably guilty.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by wiiziwiig While it is possible Mike did all of this by himself, it is not very likely. If you were to tell me that someone cheated on a stream, I would immediately think 3 ppl were involved. Guy playing, guy with authority ie floorman, guy on production. Now this is not enough to just randomly pick Justin just for being the floorman in charge. There is circumstantial evidence supporting this claim. This type of post comes up at least once or twice a day, and it is quite tilting for someone who has been actively involved. Guy with <10 posts writes a long post summarizing everything and then questions this and that. My advice, if you want to be heard, get involved with the discussion. Bring up evidence. Justin is extremely likely to be involved. It has been spoken about ad nauseam how it has been spoken about ad nauseam that he is involved. You've seen us here defend the commentators, that there is just not enough data to find them culpable, even when Joey and Doug say that they are highly suspicious. There is more than a reasonable doubt, that Justin is involved. Yes, it is possible he isn't, but the data we have to go on shows that he most likely is.
This is exactly what i mean... 2 posters who have been "very" involved contradicting each other in mere seconds.....

I do NOT believe at all the commentators are in on it..... not for a second...One might have had KNOWLEDGE of it going on or suspecting things, but "in on it" i dont believe...

Also..as soon as someone posts something that seems pretty reasonable (of course i think I am posting something reasonable) this person (me) gets accused of trying to protect people involved.....
sorry to disappoint you... never even heard of any of the commentators/players/Tech people or any other person involved....

I just dont THINK there is any evidence for saying Justin is 100% guilty.... Mike... no doubt.... Justin... not so much... as i said i think he probably was more gullible then guilty...... I might be wrong and would not be surprised at all, but there is no evidence at all..... The fact he is in Vegas when there is no god mode can easily be explained that Mike NEEDS to have access to his laptop/setup to log into the stream to see the hole cards....

Lets be honest here for a second.. we have had accusations against Taylor and Lance and almost everyone apart of the waiters........thats the part i dont like and thats the reason i READ all before posting here.....

10-07-2019, 09:25 PM   #5763
n00ki5
journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 329
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DBurg Win-rate, physical actions, river play: All are overwhelming evidence that he is cheating. They are like the trees and bushes that make up his poker forest. Mike Postle not paying attention to his opponent's mannerisms and physical presence, while simultaneously defending his play by saying he is a great reader of people, is the carbon and animal feces making his poker forest bloom into spectacular hues of green and brown. BUT, HE'S TOO MUCH OF A LYING CHEATING NARCISSIST TO REALIZE THERE ARE GIANT PILES OF ANIMAL FECES ON THE FOREST FLOOR, BREEDING TREE EATING MAGGOTS AND SEEPING INTO THE FOREST'S STREAMS AND RIVERS. AND, THE LEVELS OF CARBON HE'S SPEWING ARE CHOKING THE LIFE OUT OF HIS CHEATER'S PARADISE.
you forgot lousy ranges pre flop + godmode post flop
he didn't even care to play good ranges pre lol

 10-07-2019, 09:26 PM #5764 wiiziwiig old hand   Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 1,407 Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) Looks like Mac VerStandig is on the case for a civil lawsuit. He is also Jonathan Little's personal lawyer.
 10-07-2019, 09:30 PM #5765 mitsi old hand   Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,885 Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) To the people saying "the lawyer will just say its the same odds as winning lotto" The scatter graph of lotto winners does not have massive outliers like potripper and postle Its smoother than that. Other division winners etc. so there are dots all the way out to the big win. Not just a cluster and then 1 dot anomaly Very basic example below of the type of scatter graph lottery winners would have (i get its jackpot wins v ticket sales), but you get the idea of gradual winners closer to 1st division jackpot winners. Not just a cluster and outlier
10-07-2019, 09:32 PM   #5766
kiddo1987
centurion

Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 144
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by godeep Joey' s Twitter has the stats right? I just don't understand. His name is worth more than 200k Right? Why would he cheat for 200k? And split with someone so 100? Or 150 at best? And do it in such an obvious way. Hendon MOB 500k WTF? Why would anyone do that? And especially when people used to say he is such a crusher. Would be interesting what people thought of him who played with him. Maybe in the even so far back as in in ultimat bet days. Didnt gus hanson swing up and down a few million in one day? He said he played at UB as the biggest winner. So he must have played the enbosses. What if we had hand histories? Maaaaan I get the popcorn.. relaaax everyone this is getting interesting.. Maan if I was Mike I would get myself backed for the 100ks or 50ks why would he cheat for such a small amount that's what I don't get. I guess I have to watch 5h of live feed now. Pls don't say UB days are over I know that. Just would be interesting.

10-07-2019, 09:33 PM   #5767
pghduilaw
centurion

Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 142
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by lawdude Who attempted to scrub it? Seriously, guys. I'm not saying obstruction of justice never happens- far from it- but this notion that people involved in complex computer crimes just erase all the evidence, even evidence that isn't within their control, even when doing so can get them in real trouble with their employers or make things look more suspicious, is unfounded. Most likely, the mechanisms that were used to perpetrate this still exist somewhere in readable form. Somewhat less likely, some of the mechanisms not within the possession, custody, or control of Stones which were use to perpetrate this no longer exist. However, in that event, (1) the mechanisms within the possession, custody, and control of Stones still do exist, and (2) there is some sort of digital forensic trail that will yield significant usable evidence regarding the destroyed or secreted items. But no, the chances that (1) the hole card reading computer contains relevant evidence regarding the hack and (2) it was successfully scrubbed of all incriminating information by a Stones employee with access to it are very close to zero. IF this is investigated properly, there is going to be a mountain of evidence. It's just impossible to pull something like this off without leaving an extensive trail.
I am not attacking you in any way, but I have to ask:

1. How many jury trials have you done as a prosecutor?;
2. How many jury trials have you done as a criminal defense attorney?

As someone who has tried hundreds of jury trials both as a prosecutor and defense attorney I find some of your posts to be naive at best.

I prosecuted homicide and rape cases back when dna evidence was first introduced and was not generally understood/accepted. You underestimate how difficulf it is to explain statistical evidence to a jury of lay people. Thinking that you could explain win rates and standard deviations as applied to poker in 4 hours is not realistic. I have spent 4 days putting on expert witnesses to explain complex evidence to a jury.

How many complex criminal investigations have you overseen? I supervised hundreds of complex criminal investigations as a prosecutor. Let me be clear, I personally believe that MP is a cheater. Further, I am not claiming that criminal charges will not be brought nor that they would fail to result in a conviction. However, your certitude regarding how likely/easy such a prosecution would be is, in my opinion, misplaced.

 10-07-2019, 09:34 PM #5768 HarryKane09 centurion   Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 125 Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) I went thru Postles twitter replies. So many people calling him a boss/fan girling or questioning his plays and most of the time he replies with LOL I'd been drinking. Now again onto the commentators. They all probably considered Mike a friend. They had spent time with him outside of the poker room. Can you imagine even if you suspect, how hard it is to pull the trigger? Imagine if you are wrong. Look at this tweet from Veronica. Lay off the commentary team.
 10-07-2019, 09:35 PM #5769 27AllIn Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Every night to me is Halloween Posts: 6,580 Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) My current estimate is that Postle is working alone, and he was able to relay a feed (using his technical knowledge which he's trying to downplay) of the RFID software to his phone. We know the security was extremely lax in the peek room. When they banned phones he was able to write or acquire code which read out-loud the hole cards to his bone conduction headphones. We've seen Postle cheat while Justin is commentating, so how does it make sense that the two are working together?
10-07-2019, 09:38 PM   #5770
lvprof
centurion

Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 128
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 27AllIn My current estimate is that Postle is working alone, and he was able to relay a feed (using his technical knowledge which he's trying to downplay) of the RFID software to his phone. We know the security was extremely lax in the peek room. When they banned phones he was able to write or acquire code which read out-loud the hole cards to his bone conduction headphones. We've seen Postle cheat while Justin is commentating, so how does it make sense that the two are working together?
I think he would have just found a friend who's not in poker world to relay the information to him for the bone conducting side of things. Person either tells him by voice or a text to voice app.

 10-07-2019, 09:38 PM #5771 HarryKane09 centurion   Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 125 Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) Another thing that was sad for me to see was how much of his life revolved around Stones. Not just the stream, but the tournies and his social circle. He really was the poker room hero; now he is the ultimate villian. His head must be all over the place.
10-07-2019, 09:38 PM   #5772
wiiziwiig
old hand

Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,407
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by GobboGrandchild This is exactly what i mean... 2 posters who have been "very" involved contradicting each other in mere seconds..... I do NOT believe at all the commentators are in on it..... not for a second...One might have had KNOWLEDGE of it going on or suspecting things, but "in on it" i dont believe... Also..as soon as someone posts something that seems pretty reasonable (of course i think I am posting something reasonable) this person (me) gets accused of trying to protect people involved..... sorry to disappoint you... never even heard of any of the commentators/players/Tech people or any other person involved.... I just dont THINK there is any evidence for saying Justin is 100% guilty.... Mike... no doubt.... Justin... not so much... as i said i think he probably was more gullible then guilty...... I might be wrong and would not be surprised at all, but there is no evidence at all..... The fact he is in Vegas when there is no god mode can easily be explained that Mike NEEDS to have access to his laptop/setup to log into the stream to see the hole cards.... Lets be honest here for a second.. we have had accusations against Taylor and Lance and almost everyone apart of the waiters........thats the part i dont like and thats the reason i READ all before posting here.....
Well, the difference is that I have spent time defending the commentators and actually addressed the claims against them. You just came in on a white horse with 8 posts saying Justin isn't guilty while never addressing any of the evidence against him, only saying it is "possible" he isnt. Please speak, the floor is open.

10-07-2019, 09:39 PM   #5773
aoFrantic
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 23,505
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by +rep_lol i even mis-spoke earlier and said he would never expect a >500bb downswing, but it's actually far more absurd. mike's results are nearly 6 times the upper end of any expected distribution of cards over a 400 hour sample for the strongest players in the game. with a ~275bb/100 winrate, it says the minimum bankroll required for <5% risk of ruin is a whopping 54 big blinds. to clarify, what that means is that in any given 400 hour sample of poker from mike, there would only be a 5% chance that he ever once lost >54bb in a hand or even had a 54bb downswing- and this is with an observed vpip >60, doing **** like coldcalling 4bets with 95o. LOL it's statistically impossible that he isn't cheating.
What's really blowing my mind is their is a very clear online vs live mentality at play here. If you saw someone playing like this online over a decent sample and crushing, you would be instantly suspicious! So many people live were not, because he was always taking in pots and stacking chips.

10-07-2019, 09:39 PM   #5774
Michael Buble
journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 339
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Xenicide https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4EJ6otUu0Q&t=100s Watch this video and tell me the commentators and justin are innocent.
I'll tell you they might very well be innocent. A few post above yours there was a professional poker player with a PGC thread who credited his play, professional players who played him regularly weren't bothered by his play or not sure enough to speak up, the lady who ignited this was praising his play for months before starting to have doubts. It's unreasonable to be sure anyone watching his play multiple times without the hindsight advantage we have and was praising him is thus involved. Suspicious is up for debate, but all commentators talked in a similar way about Mike and surely they aren't all involved. The way they spoke about him thus isn't a very relevant factor.

Quote:
 You clearly have no idea what you are talking about.
Quote:
 Also claiming mike might have done this all on his own just makes me think your trying to defend someone other than mike thats probably guilty.
You can discuss without your habitual insults, anti-social comments and random accusations.

10-07-2019, 09:41 PM   #5775
WhirlingDervish

Join Date: May 2010
Location: On the bubble
Posts: 1,042
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by momentaryblip Some lul descriptions of MP's playing ability and talent in this thread. I mean when you are playing against a God... https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...0&postcount=14
Ha this is from my PG&C thread ... seemed accurate at the time, and pretty lol in retrospect for sure.

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