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Old 10-07-2019, 08:11 PM   #5726
Gzesh
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by n00ki5 View Post
Yea.

If live reads are that important to his decision making why the **** he is staring at his crotch all the ****ing time?
lol, maybe he wants to see if he has big enough balls ?
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:13 PM   #5727
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by godeep View Post
My screenplay:

Rocky Balboa like in Rocky I

IF all is true what he said in in the interview and to me he seemed legit.

the drive for multimillions who is humble and ground to earth.

the whole world jumps on the wagon of the wiitchhunt and destroys the guys everything.

... puh great story huh?

Alternate ending the guy proves he is innocent and a million people feel like **** for judging him.too.soon

Jeez I really hope he is innocent...

It would be such a great story..
Gotta be Mike
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:13 PM   #5728
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by bizkit View Post
No. I can't reference anyone winning at ~225 - 300 bb/hr over a similar sample.

From my personal experiences the most I've won over this type of sample (5k-6k'ish) hands is around 200 bb/100.

I'd love to talk about it more and get into the likelihood percentages but I don't want to derail the thread.



I don't claim he's just running good. I've said on many occasions, I think he's cheating in some form or another in some hands/sessions. So many "plays/reads" in so many sessions are absolutely ridiculous all while he's looking down at his crotch for majority of the hand.
The math has been posted many times. It is not very tough to do.
I've been on 2p2 for well over a decade. No honest player has ever claimed winrates like this.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:15 PM   #5729
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
Who attempted to scrub it?

Seriously, guys. I'm not saying obstruction of justice never happens- far from it- but this notion that people involved in complex computer crimes just erase all the evidence, even evidence that isn't within their control, even when doing so can get them in real trouble with their employers or make things look more suspicious, is unfounded.

Most likely, the mechanisms that were used to perpetrate this still exist somewhere in readable form.

Somewhat less likely, some of the mechanisms not within the possession, custody, or control of Stones which were use to perpetrate this no longer exist. However, in that event, (1) the mechanisms within the possession, custody, and control of Stones still do exist, and (2) there is some sort of digital forensic trail that will yield significant usable evidence regarding the destroyed or secreted items.

But no, the chances that (1) the hole card reading computer contains relevant evidence regarding the hack and (2) it was successfully scrubbed of all incriminating information by a Stones employee with access to it are very close to zero.

IF this is investigated properly, there is going to be a mountain of evidence. It's just impossible to pull something like this off without leaving an extensive trail.
Thank for your insights. Much appreciated. I wish you were in charge of the investigation!
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:17 PM   #5730
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by mukdukaluk View Post
More likely a troll imo

Additionally, just random observation from my legal experience and maybe Australian is more stringent but I highly doubt, without a confession or further tangible evidence (texts, app data etc), this would even be brought to trial by our department of public prosecutions.
my opinion are that these types of people are attention seekers who have very little social awareness, very unintelligent, and are also extremely lazy. so they jump in with their first thought and just love the attention they are getting so they keep at it. Its never going to be Mike, he wouldnt post in here, and if he did, we would never know it, im sure hes lurking though.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:17 PM   #5731
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by parisron View Post
Thank for your insights. Much appreciated. I wish you were in charge of the investigation!
If the authorities or gaming commission aren’t involved, there is no investigation.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:19 PM   #5732
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
Who attempted to scrub it?
Potentially Mike himself or an accomplice(s). They could easily just swap the PC's hard drive out and into a pocket and swap it with a clone.

I'm wondering if you're viewing it as a Hollywood-style "hack". There would be no "hacking" involved in this type of scam. There's screensharing software for free everywhere, not to mention OBS is already loaded on the hole card computer, which is screensharing/broadcasting/recording software that can stream out to private links in addition to public links.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:19 PM   #5733
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

The gaming commission is involved for sure.

So far, from what I have read here and other places, 2 things are for sure, Gaming commission is involved and a civil lawsuit is in the works.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:26 PM   #5734
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dick Tracy View Post
Potentially Mike himself or an accomplice(s). They could easily just swap the PC's hard drive out and into a pocket and swap it with a clone.

I'm wondering if you're viewing it as a Hollywood-style "hack". There would be no "hacking" involved in this type of scam. There's screensharing software for free everywhere, not to mention OBS is already loaded on the hole card computer, which is screensharing/broadcasting/recording software that can stream out to private links in addition to public links.
Them when forensics are done, it will show a new harddrive. That is also a very bad thing for them.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:27 PM   #5735
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by parisron View Post
The gaming commission is involved for sure.

So far, from what I have read here and other places, 2 things are for sure, Gaming commission is involved and a civil lawsuit is in the works.
Can you provide a link where the California Gaming Commission has confirmed that there is an active investigation?
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:27 PM   #5736
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by godeep View Post
When watching it it seemed like a lunatic move. But after hearing how they talked about that exact hand and he couldn't let it go. Because u know of moneymaker was in the hand blabla ! It seemed legit I can't help it. I mean only based on the hand
Yeah, he explains all his rediculous calls pre with some logic like that.

He said that someone will give him a random hand for the night and say, “I want you to win a big pot with XX!”, and Postle says “no problem”
That in itself is pretty damning.
Tell GMAN (or any other crusher) to play a huge pot with 95o on LATB, he’ll tell you to **** off.
Tell a superuser to win a big pot with random cards, no problem chief!
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:28 PM   #5737
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by parisron View Post
The gaming commission is involved for sure.

So far, from what I have read here and other places, 2 things are for sure, Gaming commission is involved and a civil lawsuit is in the works.
Do you know with 100% certainty that this is true? what evidence do you have to support this claim? if not then please do not mix facts with wishful thinking, it just undermines the entire thread.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:29 PM   #5738
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Xenicide View Post
https://viewsync.net/watch?v=1vlmz8T...5488&mode=solo

Hit play on both videos you can use this link to literally watch the phonecall in real time assuming the stream is on a 30 minute delay (it is and correlates perfectly with the call). Drag the blue bar in the middle up to 71:55 to see the call.
Notice how the commentary booth on the left matches up perfectly with the action on the right stream. also it helps a lot to mute the stream on the right while viewing this.
This is excellent work.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:29 PM   #5739
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jal300 View Post
Can you provide a link where the California Gaming Commission has confirmed that there is an active investigation?
No, they don't confirm active investigations.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:30 PM   #5740
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dick Tracy View Post
Potentially Mike himself or an accomplice(s). They could easily just swap the PC's hard drive out and into a pocket and swap it with a clone.

I'm wondering if you're viewing it as a Hollywood-style "hack". There would be no "hacking" involved in this type of scam. There's screensharing software for free everywhere, not to mention OBS is already loaded on the hole card computer, which is screensharing/broadcasting/recording software that can stream out to private links in addition to public links.
You can't just "swap hard drives out" of computers. What you are describing involves purchasing the exact same hard drive AND preinstalling whatever software is installed on it, then doing a physical break-in of the Stones facility housing the computer.

Again, not saying this has never happened in a case, but you are basically making these people into criminal masterminds. There are very few criminal masterminds in this world, and the ones that do exist aren't pulling off $200k poker scams on live television.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:31 PM   #5741
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Redgrape View Post
I'm doing some analysis of the data in R. I'm going to look at a lot of different factors, but here's a cursory look at keys and phone in lap as variables. I turned those columns into 1's as yes and 0 as no. I did a simple OLS regression to see how well those variables predicted his profit. Having keys on the table or phone on your lap should have no significance and no predictive power of his results, just like the color of his shirt or whether its raining.

The keys on the table have no predictive power to how much he profits and has a very high p value, just like we would expect. This throws cold water on the theory about the keys. Even if I look at the most recent 30 sessions, still absolutely 0 predictive power on his profit.

https://imgur.com/a/S3H9JAj

However, the phone being on his lap or not has remarkable significance.

https://imgur.com/a/2sZuLYw

The p value is super low, which means this variable is very significant. When his phone was in his lap, he won an average of $4,546 per session. When his phone wasn't in his lap, he won an average of $227 per session. This should not matter at all if the person is playing fair. But whether his phone was in his lap or not significantly predict how much he wins. This is not deep statistical analysis, I'm just using OLS. I encourage data scientists to look at the Postle spreadsheet and do your own research.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1252155464
Bless you, sir.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:32 PM   #5742
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by parisron View Post
The gaming commission is involved for sure.

So far, from what I have read here and other places, 2 things are for sure, Gaming commission is involved and a civil lawsuit is in the works.
Quote:
Originally Posted by parisron View Post
No, they don't confirm active investigations.
Other than you saying they are investigating "for sure" and perhaps others saying "for sure" how did you conclude such a thing, if not confirmed by the Gaming Commission?
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:33 PM   #5743
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jal300 View Post
Other than you saying they are investigating "for sure" and perhaps others saying "for sure" how did you conclude such a thing, if not confirmed by the Gaming Commission?
https://pokerfuse.com/poker-podcasts...podcast/15475/

35:30 they start talking about that.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:34 PM   #5744
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
my opinion are that these types of people are attention seekers who have very little social awareness, very unintelligent, and are also extremely lazy. so they jump in with their first thought and just love the attention they are getting so they keep at it. Its never going to be Mike, he wouldnt post in here, and if he did, we would never know it, im sure hes lurking though.
Yeah this exactly.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:38 PM   #5745
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
You can't just "swap hard drives out" of computers.
Most of the time, if the tower is in front of you, all you need is a screwdriver, bro. If this is only a production computer, sitting in the production room, I highly doubt it has any sort of lock on it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
What you are describing involves purchasing the exact same hard drive
No. At least, to pull it off "perfectly". As long as the computer appears to be running and functioning as normal, no one would be the wiser until they checked how long the computer has been operating within the system itself. Again, you're assuming that I'm thinking they're pulling off some sort of perfect crime. Stop.
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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
AND preinstalling whatever software is installed on it
Uh, yep.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
then doing a physical break-in of the Stones facility housing the computer.
Why are you assuming it require a physical break-in? The tower could easily just be sitting in the production room AND owned by a third-party.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
Again, not saying this has never happened in a case, but you are basically making these people into criminal masterminds.
Saying that they could potentially be destroying evidence = successful mastermind activity?
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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
There are very few criminal masterminds in this world, and the ones that do exist aren't pulling off $200k poker scams on live television.
No idea what this closing point means.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:39 PM   #5746
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by parisron View Post
https://pokerfuse.com/poker-podcasts...podcast/15475/

35:30 they start talking about that.
Sorry mate, more people saying "for sure" is not confirmation that the Gaming Commission is actually currently investigating. I would hope that they are; but I nor anyone else (other than the Gaming Commission itself) can actually state definitively that there is a current/ongoing investigation.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:42 PM   #5747
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
But no, the chances that (1) the hole card reading computer contains relevant evidence regarding the hack and (2) it was successfully scrubbed of all incriminating information by a Stones employee with access to it are very close to zero.

Umm, just like I shouldn't dabble in law just because I watch Matlock, you shouldn't dabble in computers because you watch CSI.

Really, wiping and restoring a single-purpose computer like this is so trivial it's not even funny.

Export configuration. Wipe drive. Reinstall windows and drivers from OEM DVD. Reinstall application. Reconfigure and re-apply exported configuration.


FBI: "Hey, why is the install on this machine fresh?"

JFK: "We thought we might have had a backdoor or a trojan, so we wiped it and re-installed everything."

FBI: "You might have destroyed evidence! What were you thinking?"

JFK: "Oh, sorry, we though we had a virus. On a critical machine like this it is SOP to re-install."

FBI: "Grrrrr."
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:44 PM   #5748
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I have been following this thread from the beginning, but got behind on all the replies and wanted to read all before posting with "my" version and non biased observations.

I think it is 99.99% clear that Mike cheated.. there is just no way to defend some plays and the winrate.

This was all investigated by smarter people on here then me, but then we went on the conspiracy theory here a little bit too much in MY opinion....
there was never any proof posted of any device used (apart of the obvious phone)... the bone conducting headset was never proved... the "james Bond keys" where never proved... and in fact they dont even seem that likely.. they MIGHT have tested something like that, but why, if they already had a winning system...

In the last sentence there is a big assumption as well.. i said THEY... why would it be they??

I believe it is VERY WELL possible that Mike is/was doing this all by himself.... The absence of Justin when he as not in God mode could easily be explained by the fact that (for instance.. dont know specifics of course) Mike is a "friend" of Justin and has (unbeknownst to Justin) access to his laptop/login/stream which means he can watch that on his cellphone... Justin appears more of a fanboy then a guilty party most of the time...

The switching of the card on the river is something that happens on a lot of streams and i am not worried about that... Just feel that if Mike told Justin that on his visit to the table, Justin could tell the 'graphics guy" to make the switch when the hand would come up on the stream... the guy forgot and Justin told him "change it goddamit" and the guy did it on the river/showdown moment.....

for me the fact he cheated is 99.99% proven, but the fact he had help i am definitely not more then 20/80.. At least no help to the level some people think here.....At page 120/130 of this thread a lot of posters shied away from Justin, but one rando posts something and he is back in the guilty column again... I DO believe he is at least gullible, but thats a far cry from guilty...

I hope the truth will come out, but i also hope that posters here will stop looking for unicorns as for ME, it is simply of a case of one guy who "cracked the code" or has remote access to the "supercomputer" when his friend (justin) logs in to it........
So many other points like the Justin/Mike interviews during games etc, to bring up as well, but i dont want to make this too long..

Ps.... anyone going to the WSOP-c event in Monterrey/Mexico next week?
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:44 PM   #5749
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Some lul descriptions of MP's playing ability and talent in this thread. I mean when you are playing against a God...

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...0&postcount=14
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:47 PM   #5750
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dick Tracy View Post
Potentially Mike himself or an accomplice(s). They could easily just swap the PC's hard drive out and into a pocket and swap it with a clone.
Yeah, I'm sure Mike did all this. He couldn't even bother not 3bet shoving 62o bottom pair for $1600 but he's covered his tracks perfectly on this. He actually swapped out the entire server for one he had prepared for just this scenario. All his phones were burner phones and the money trail will lead investigators to an 89 year old man named Modesto Cunanan who lives in a small hut just outside a tiny village in the Philippines. When investigators check the security cameras they will discover that all cameras were on a 24 hour loop and haven't recorded anything of significance in the last 18 months.
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