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Old 10-07-2019, 06:51 PM   #5676
lawdude
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by bL1z View Post
On the 2nd part of Mike Postle's 'interview' with Matusow, he says at 49:23:
"That's what we try to do on the stream. That's what I've been ASKED [emphasis] to do on the stream. You know, do the best I can to put on a show."

First of all, who is 'we'? If you're just an independent grinder trying to make a living, why would you say 'we'? Furthermore, it seems suspicious that Stones would ask him to behave in a certain way.

If this is accurate, did they instruct other players as well, or just Mike Postle? (Perhaps players that appeared on the stream can shed some light on this.)

In case they only gave these directions to Mike Postle, the way he phrased it seems like additional (circumstantial) evidence that he wasn't acting as a lone wolf, and Stones were going out of their way to artificially create hype around this reincarnation of Stu Ungar on steroids.
It would not surprise me if many streamed or televised poker shows encourage people to gambolllll it up. There's nothing more boring than televised poker with a bunch of TAG's and blind steals.

And while Postle is a world unto himself, he was not the only person on the Stones feeds playing loose and aggressive. Indeed, the whole idea of Veronica and Friends was to create a ridiculously loose, maniacal 1-3 no limit game with thousands of dollars on the table.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:52 PM   #5677
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by godeep View Post
I have seen the hand , could you tell me why is he calling the flop when he should know the other guy has a set?

HE looks like a professional crotchlooker at his crotch and then he calls with what exactly? Why doesn't he just fold? If he sees the cards .



27 sessions of 5 5 and up 100k not impossible
It makes no sense to float flop and then fold the turn when he makes top pair. Esoecially when we have seen a plethora of hands where he calls down with 2nd and 3rd pair (how weird, he's always right)

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Old 10-07-2019, 06:54 PM   #5678
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by godeep View Post
I have seen the hand , could you tell me why is he calling the flop when he should know the other guy has a set?
HE looks like a professional crotchlooker at his crotch and then he calls with what exactly? Why doesn't he just fold? If he sees the cards .

27 sessions of 5 5 and up 100k not impossible
1. It's a small bet on the flop.

2. He's got backdoors to a straight (JT9, just about the best possible backdoor straight draw) and a ten high club flush (also important, because he knows that flush draw is good- a player not knowing the other player's cards would consider a ten high backdoor flush to be close to worthless).

So, he's calling a small flop bet with huge implied odds-- the other guy's got a set, so Postle can stack him if he makes his straight and win a huge pot if he makes a flush.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:55 PM   #5679
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by fragglerock45 View Post
Why do people buy the line that he crushed at any point?
Because it's completely irrelevant. If anything, being a crusher makes him more guilty because when cheating he plays hands in ways that all crushers know is incorrect and then he even justifies his decisions. If he was a complete donkey it would be easier for him to justify his play.

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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
What do people here think of the mike matusow interview?
Mike should be applauded for getting him to talk. Huge mistake by Postle to take that interview.

In regards to how Postle did, I actually thought he sounded pretty convincing in part 2 (to someone that didn't understand the case) but he literally just deflects the entire time and tries to discredit the opposing argument by pointing out potential flaws but he never actually addresses the meat of the issue (ie the actual cheating) and that's because there is no real defense for how he played his hands.

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I think he was trying to attribute this health issue to "This is why I haven't crushed online everywhere the last 10+ years." & "This is why I don't play long sessions and leave after the stream goes down."
He leaves after the stream goes down because of the babysitter.

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I've seen nothing in these videos that is proof.
The fact that you had already exposed yourself as a troll is proof in itself.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:56 PM   #5680
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Old 10-07-2019, 06:59 PM   #5681
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Loff View Post
lol the ******ed commentators again. "Is mike gonna put him on another overpair here again?" As if overpairs are the only hands that would bet that board.
I agree ., its one of the best folds ive ever seen lol

just another 10 10 fold on turn that should call 10000% of the time lol

https://youtu.be/WaWPHGvuqDg?t=8100 2:15:00
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:59 PM   #5682
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Thank you I missed that. I have to watch at the hand again. Sorry. Top pair cam be folded vs too much action, bad kicker...several reasons
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:00 PM   #5683
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Fake, don't click.
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:01 PM   #5684
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

If I were accused of cheating, and I was innocent, I think the very first words out of my mouth in an interview would be 'I'm innocent, these accusations are insane.' If you listen to his interview with Matusow, I don't think Postle even says that until 20-30 minutes in, and he only does so when Matusow asks him point blank 'Are you innocent?'

Seems like a tell to me.
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:02 PM   #5685
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by godeep View Post
Thank you I missed that. I have to watch at the hand again. Sorry. Top pair cam be folded vs too much action, bad kicker...several reasons
There wasn't too much action. It was a 1/3 pot bet followed by a 1/2 pot bet. We have seen Mike called down in 3 bet ports with 3rd pair (and be correct). Yes this hand could maybe be explained as a good correct fold, but not when you line it up with all of the other lines he took in 3 and 4 bet pots. This hand is the clearest I have seen of cheating when you compare how he played similar spots (but was ahead of his opponents had air)

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Old 10-07-2019, 07:03 PM   #5686
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by godeep View Post
Thank you I missed that. I have to watch at the hand again. Sorry. Top pair cam be folded vs too much action, bad kicker...several reasons
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and just say go watch the hand again. Of course top pair can (and should) be folded depending on the action. This is not one of those times. For me, it's the clearest hand evidence that Postle is cheating (that I've seen thus far). Even moreso than the insane 54o preflop hand.
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:08 PM   #5687
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by auralex14 View Post
If I were accused of cheating, and I was innocent, I think the very first words out of my mouth in an interview would be 'I'm innocent, these accusations are insane.' If you listen to his interview with Matusow, I don't think Postle even says that until 20-30 minutes in, and he only does so when Matusow asks him point blank 'Are you innocent?'

Seems like a tell to me.
You'd also be defending yourself on Joeys stream. Not doing a podcast with the idiot that hasn't looked at the evidence and is blindly defending you.
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:08 PM   #5688
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by auralex14 View Post
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and just say go watch the hand again. Of course top pair can (and should) be folded depending on the action. This is not one of those times. For me, it's the clearest hand evidence that Postle is cheating (that I've seen thus far). Even moreso than the insane 54o preflop hand.

They talked about the 54 hand before with Moneymaker that's what he says in the interview. I think.part 2.
HE won the wsop main with 54 remember? I've seen crazier things than flipping for 4 k.
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:09 PM   #5689
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly View Post
Yes, he was known to be spewy. Indeed, I think it's in the very first or 2nd cheating session where Postle makes a ridiculous superuser bluff, and Frank the Tank (??), who has played with him for years, snap-calls with a weak pair of sevens. Franks later explains to the commentators that he's always trying to pick off Postle's airball shoves.

There is no evidence of cheating with Justin as the accomplice, here. That said, no well-managed live stream would ever allow the manager to phone someone from the commentary booth (or anywhere in the building) direct to a player at the table while the stream is live. The negligence here is appalling.
Screengrab from 30 minutes later in the table footage, when Mike gets the phonecall from JFK:
https://viewsync.net/watch?v=1vlmz8T...5488&mode=solo

Hit play on both videos you can use this link to literally watch the phonecall in real time assuming the stream is on a 30 minute delay (it is and correlates perfectly with the call). Drag the blue bar in the middle up to 71:55 to see the call.
Notice how the commentary booth on the left matches up perfectly with the action on the right stream. also it helps a lot to mute the stream on the right while viewing this.
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:09 PM   #5690
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

FWIW the hands where Postle finds a fold where no reasonable or even great player would find a fold are far more damning than any other hands.

Especially when his defense is that he makes killer live reads and has tells on his villains, the same ones he’s ignoring to stare at the crotch phone
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:10 PM   #5691
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
It would not surprise me if many streamed or televised poker shows encourage people to gambolllll it up. There's nothing more boring than televised poker with a bunch of TAG's and blind steals.

And while Postle is a world unto himself, he was not the only person on the Stones feeds playing loose and aggressive. Indeed, the whole idea of Veronica and Friends was to create a ridiculously loose, maniacal 1-3 no limit game with thousands of dollars on the table.
I agree there's an obvious incentive here, but wouldn't it be weird if only Mike Postle was specifically asked to gamble it up? If others on the stream can confirm they had been given similar instructions then my post can be disregarded, but until then, I remain skeptical.
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:10 PM   #5692
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Thank you I missed that. I have to watch at the hand again. Sorry. Top pair cam be folded vs too much action, bad kicker...several reasons
Sure it can. But the problem is the the flop reasoning and the turn reasoning don't add up.

Let's take a couple of scenarios with that hand, where Hero is Postle and we don't know what Villain has.

1. Hero thinks Villain has a wide range, is c-betting everything on that dry board, and that if Hero hits either of his pair outs he's likely to be good. Plus he's got the backdoors.

Then, tearing one off for $20 on the flop is totally defensible, even if you could also fold it. But having torn one off, you are of course going to call the turn, because you hit your card, he could still be barreling his ace-king, you have 2 pair or trips outs if he's got an overpair, and you can decide if the river bricks out whether to call a big 3rd barrel.

2. Hero thinks Villain does not have a wide range, and the pair outs are often no good or compromised (if Villain has AT or AJ).

Well, then, Hero folds. The only out he's sure of is his backdoor straight, and that's worth the equivalent of 1 out or something. The backdoor flush carries substantial reverse implied odds-- Villain could easily have an overpair with a club in it.

There's no scenario where you call the flop, bink your pair out, and fold the turn.

And that's one of the major problems here. One of the things that would have helped him cover his tracks would have just been to pay off in some obvious situations. In this situation, to say "OK, I hit my jack, this sucks big time but I'm going to have to call this turn bet because it looks so suspicious", and then either call a small bet on the river or make a Hero fold to a big bet (unless he makes 2 pair or trips, in which he may have to raise-fold the river).

Similarly, with the TT against the AA, call the turn and then call a small bet or hero fold a big bet on the river (or bink a river T because, after all, he's Mike Postle ). He forgot that he is being recorded on video and needed to look mortal.
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:14 PM   #5693
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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lol there were some golden lines in there
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:17 PM   #5694
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by +rep_lol View Post
no, the smoking gun is that his winrate/hourly is literally impossible in a game that size.



^extrapolating 30 hands/hr with an effective $10 big blind, that's

$830*3.33333 = $2767 won per 100 hands

for a winrate of 276.7bb/100

and by any metric you want to look at, with a pretty standard $100/hr EV for a good reg in the games, this is literally impossible-




MBN to never have a >5 buyin downswing. in the real world, we just call that a cheater.

but i'm sure postle just manages to do it somehow with the ol' 95o in his 4b defense range
Thanks for running this. $100/hr seems reasonable for a crusher at soft&deep $1/$3 and $5/$5 mix

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post


Mike should be applauded for getting him to talk. Huge mistake by Postle to take that interview.
+1. If a bumhunter gets the action from a whale HU, doesn't matter if his ranges are ****.
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:17 PM   #5695
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by godeep View Post
They talked about the 54 hand before with Moneymaker that's what he says in the interview. I think.part 2.
HE won the wsop main with 54 remember? I've seen crazier things than flipping for 4 k.
I heard Postle's bullshit excuse about the 54, but that's all it was, a bullshit excuse. How could he possibly know he was flipping (he was actually ahead in terms of equity)with 5 high when he called off 400 big blinds preflop against two opponents?
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:18 PM   #5696
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I'm still quite partial to that 2x pot shove with AK to bluff AK off a chop: https://youtu.be/xUMt--bML6o?t=9837
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:19 PM   #5697
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
Sure it can. But the problem is the the flop reasoning and the turn reasoning don't add up.

Let's take a couple of scenarios with that hand, where Hero is Postle and we don't know what Villain has.

1. Hero thinks Villain has a wide range, is c-betting everything on that dry board, and that if Hero hits either of his pair outs he's likely to be good. Plus he's got the backdoors.

Then, tearing one off for $20 on the flop is totally defensible, even if you could also fold it. But having torn one off, you are of course going to call the turn, because you hit your card, he could still be barreling his ace-king, you have 2 pair or trips outs if he's got an overpair, and you can decide if the river bricks out whether to call a big 3rd barrel.

2. Hero thinks Villain does not have a wide range, and the pair outs are often no good or compromised (if Villain has AT or AJ).

Well, then, Hero folds. The only out he's sure of is his backdoor straight, and that's worth the equivalent of 1 out or something. The backdoor flush carries substantial reverse implied odds-- Villain could easily have an overpair with a club in it.

There's no scenario where you call the flop, bink your pair out, and fold the turn.

And that's one of the major problems here. One of the things that would have helped him cover his tracks would have just been to pay off in some obvious situations. In this situation, to say "OK, I hit my jack, this sucks big time but I'm going to have to call this turn bet because it looks so suspicious", and then either call a small bet on the river or make a Hero fold to a big bet (unless he makes 2 pair or trips, in which he may have to raise-fold the river).

Similarly, with the TT against the AA, call the turn and then call a small bet or hero fold a big bet on the river (or bink a river T because, after all, he's Mike Postle ). He forgot that he is being recorded on video and needed to look mortal.

Thank you! I've see the hand but was stoned guess I have to look for it again. And the Jack ten hand is the biggest evidence now right?
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:20 PM   #5698
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by whosnext View Post
Again with this?
I dislike the language "impossible" when incorporating a confidence interval to certain player's observed winrate. Is it wrong to express that concern?

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Originally Posted by whosnext View Post
Let's everybody stipulate that we do not know Postle's EXACT win rate, though reasonable estimates of how many bb/100 he is up have been provided as well as reasonable estimates of his $/hr win rate.

Let's also stipulate that we do not know the EXACT distribution of win rates of all players at all games similar to Postle's games. Again, over the years the poker community has developed reasonable estimates of these figures.
We're taking one sample of what may be reasonable estimates and using it to model a completely different sample. Maybe they're close to the same but either way it skews the results IMO.

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Originally Posted by whosnext View Post
What is considered a good win rate, a very good win rate, an excellent win rate, an astronomical win rate, and an ungodly win rate (DUCY). Most people who have looked into this "scandal" put Postle's win rate north of the excellent win rate.
Yeah, I would definitely put it north of excellent as well.

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You've been admonished before critiquing posts in this thread pertaining to Postle's "win rates". At this point you should consider that you have made your point and that you don't need to repeat it ad nauseam.
I didn't see any post like this....there's a lot of posts in this thread. My bad.

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The next step is to simply delete subsequent posts of yours like this.
Okay, can you do the same for someone who types "OMG Postle won at xxx bb/100 THAT'S IMPOSSIBLE"?
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:22 PM   #5699
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by godeep View Post
This is getting ridiculous! Yes you had me aboard when I watched your videos with the claims. BUT NOW IT FEELS LIKE A WITCHHUNT!

...

Watching her comment the QJ HAND was very tilting. HE folded to Marley on the turn to with top pair so what? Good play in my books. And she is mumbling 10 times that's crazy! No it's not! That's what good payers do when facing big bets with marginal hands. That's why she is losing probably.
That's the point, Mike does the exact opposite of this many, many times (especially after 18 July 2018 as it happens).

Mike must be feeling like the walls are closing in now after that part 2 interview. If an argument such as the above, or 'maybe he was watching a ball game on his phone' are the best ones he can come up with at this point, then he'd be far better off giving his side of the story before anyone else in on it tries to spin it their own way first. Because that time is fast approaching....

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I'm on my phone and can't see too much
funny
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:24 PM   #5700
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Still no smoking guns to prove anything, if both guys involved keep their mouth shut nothing will come of this, he might even counter sue if a suit is brought upon him and they lose.
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