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Old 10-07-2019, 06:29 PM   #5651
godeep
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Joey' s Twitter has the stats right?
I just don't understand. His name is worth more than 200k Right? Why would he cheat for 200k? And split with someone so 100? Or 150 at best? And do it in such an obvious way. Hendon MOB 500k WTF? Why would anyone do that?

And especially when people used to say he is such a crusher. Would be interesting what people thought of him who played with him. Maybe in the even so far back as in in ultimat bet days. Didnt gus hanson swing up and down a few million in one day? He said he played at UB as the biggest winner. So he must have played the enbosses. What if we had hand histories? Maaaaan I get the popcorn.. relaaax everyone this is getting interesting..

Maan if I was Mike I would get myself backed for the 100ks or 50ks why would he cheat for such a small amount that's what I don't get. I guess I have to watch 5h of live feed now.

Pls don't say UB days are over I know that. Just would be interesting.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:30 PM   #5652
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by iFreeSki420 View Post
I do think he is cheating. That being said, I don't like the argument about him playing $1/3 and the Potripper graph. The games he is in are played much bigger than that. Live winrates and online 100bb capped games are comparing apples to oranges. That was also a long term winrate for Potripper, and a very small sample size for Postle. A couple hundred of hours is nothing. Especially considering how hot he ran in all-ins and with his draws over this sample. He could have still known his opponents cards and ran way over his all-in EV. I wish someone would ask him why he thinks it's appropriate to be looking at his phone in the middle of a hand? That's not allowed anywhere?


Sure it plays bigger than most 5/5 game bc those are capped while this is table max. It doesn't change the fact that he is winning at rates that are statistically alarming.

total winnings at NLHE: $305236.8
Hrs Played: 338.4
Total hands played: 338.5 * 30 = 10,155
Number of times he played 100 hands: 10155 / 100 = 101.55

Winrate at 5/5
Total winnings in BBs ($5): $305236.8 / 5 = 61047.36BB
61047.36 / 101.55 = 601BB/100 hands (winrate at 5/5)

Winrate at 10/20
Total winnings in BBs ($20): $305236.8 / 20 = 15261.84BB
15261.84 / 101.55 = 150BB/100 hands (winrate at 10/20)


Winrate at 20/40
Total winnings in BBs ($40): $305236.8 / 40 = 7630.92BB
7630.92 / 101.55 = 75BB/100 hands (winrate at 20/40)

Even giving him a generous 30 hands per hour and playing on a 20/40 game which is 8x a bigger BB, he is winning at 75BBs per 100 hands. Which is still an insane winrate.


1 – 4 bb/100 = Great. A solid winrate if you can sustain it.
5 – 9 bb/100 = Amazing. This is a very high winrate at any level. Consider moving up.
10+ bb/100 = Immense. Very, very few have a winrate like this.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:32 PM   #5653
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xenicide View Post
He was known for his weird plays a couple streams after he first started cheating? I was un aware of this.
Yes, he was known to be spewy. Indeed, I think it's in the very first or 2nd cheating session where Postle makes a ridiculous superuser bluff, and Frank the Tank (??), who has played with him for years, snap-calls with a weak pair of sevens. Franks later explains to the commentators that he's always trying to pick off Postle's airball shoves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xenicide View Post
1:10:55 (https://youtu.be/1vlmz8T86DQ?t=4255)
Justin cant wait any longer to get a response from Mike so he calls mike LIVE and asks him about the hand (isnt that against the rules?). The response going from here is priceless..
There is no evidence of cheating with Justin as the accomplice, here. That said, no well-managed live stream would ever allow the manager to phone someone from the commentary booth (or anywhere in the building) direct to a player at the table while the stream is live. The negligence here is appalling.
Screengrab from 30 minutes later in the table footage, when Mike gets the phonecall from JFK:
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:34 PM   #5654
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by godeep View Post
Joey' s Twitter has the stats right?
I just don't understand. His name is worth more than 200k Right? Why would he cheat for 200k? And split with someone so 100? Or 150 at best? And do it in such an obvious way. Hendon MOB 500k WTF? Why would anyone do that?

And especially when people used to say he is such a crusher. Would be interesting what people thought of him who played with him. Maybe in the even so far back as in in ultimat bet days. Didnt gus hanson swing up and down a few million in one day? He said he played at UB as the biggest winner. So he must have played the enbosses. What if we had hand histories? Maaaaan I get the popcorn.. relaaax everyone this is getting interesting..

Maan if I was Mike I would get myself backed for the 100ks or 50ks why would he cheat for such a small amount that's what I don't get. I guess I have to watch 5h of live feed now.

Pls don't say UB days are over I know that. Just would be interesting.
Please stop polluting the thread with your garbage Mike.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:34 PM   #5655
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Forgot to mention but in that video Kaysee makes eye contact with the camera a few times as if she's looking to the production team like
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:35 PM   #5656
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

It would be such amazing poetic justice if this careful accounting of Postle's winnings lead co-conspirators to realize he's been shorting them, and causes them to flip.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:35 PM   #5657
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Btw i love this guy ''godeep''

He comes here out of nowhere (no posts prior)
States he doesn't think Mike is cheating since anyone can look at their cellphones at anytime (lol as if that were the only reason this topic existed)
Doesn't adress directly any argument from the millions that have already been presented in this topic

Mike is that you?
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:35 PM   #5658
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by godeep View Post
I've seen nothing in these videos that is proof. And I've watched a lot. Yeah he is looking at his cell phone and yes he is looking at his crotch we can see that..

I know people that look at their cell phone all the time. What if he is following a game, maybe he has a bet on it?! What if he's in a conversation? Some people have cell phone addiction or whatever..

Pls show me one clip of evidence or at what minute of the 5h video from Joey. All I saw so far was that he is also making bad calls on the river when looking at his crotchmonitor.
Have you not seen the hand where he has J10cx, and calls the $20 flop bet from the guy with top set on a 9 high board, then folds to a $50 turn bet when Postle hits top pair? How can you explain that in any way besides he can see his opponent's holdings?

The crotch and phone stuff is enough when you compare his mannerisms with the phone/crotch prior to 7/18/18 and then after 7/18/18 (the date the cheating most likely started).
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:36 PM   #5659
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by godeep View Post
Joey' s Twitter has the stats right?
I just don't understand. His name is worth more than 200k Right? Why would he cheat for 200k? And split with someone so 100? Or 150 at best? And do it in such an obvious way. Hendon MOB 500k WTF? Why would anyone do that?

And especially when people used to say he is such a crusher. Would be interesting what people thought of him who played with him. Maybe in the even so far back as in in ultimat bet days. Didnt gus hanson swing up and down a few million in one day? He said he played at UB as the biggest winner. So he must have played the enbosses. What if we had hand histories? Maaaaan I get the popcorn.. relaaax everyone this is getting interesting..

Maan if I was Mike I would get myself backed for the 100ks or 50ks why would he cheat for such a small amount that's what I don't get. I guess I have to watch 5h of live feed now.

Pls don't say UB days are over I know that. Just would be interesting.
Are you delusional? He's playing $100 daily tournaments on a weekly basis. The entire poker world thinks he is a fish and a cheater. He hasn't played a high buyin in his life, you think he's going to start now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bizkit View Post
Which part of this is impossible? What do you think Postle's winrate is?
There have been several posts itt on this. Try to keep up.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:36 PM   #5660
Xenicide
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly View Post
Yes, he was known to be spewy. Indeed, I think it's in the very first or 2nd cheating session where Postle makes a ridiculous superuser bluff, and Frank the Tank (??), who has played with him for years, snap-calls with a weak pair of sevens. Franks later explains to the commentators that he's always trying to pick off Postle's airball shoves.

There is no evidence of cheating with Justin as the accomplice, here. That said, no well-managed live stream would ever allow the manager to phone someone from the commentary booth (or anywhere in the building) direct to a player at the table while the stream is live. The negligence here is appalling.
Screengrab from 30 minutes later in the table footage, when Mike gets the phonecall from JFK:
Thanks for this.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:37 PM   #5661
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by n00ki5 View Post
Btw i love this guy ''godeep''

He comes here out of nowhere (no posts prior)
States he doesn't think Mike is cheating since anyone can look at their cellphones at anytime (lol as if that were the only reason this topic existed)
Doesn't adress directly any argument from the millions that have already been presented in this topic

Mike is that you?
Its either Mike or Justin.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:38 PM   #5662
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by bizkit View Post
Which part of this is impossible? What do you think Postle's winrate is?

27 sessions of 5 5 winning 100k is impossible?

In what place do you play poker? Lemme tell you it's postleable!!
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:40 PM   #5663
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterLJ View Post
It would be such amazing poetic justice if this careful accounting of Postle's winnings lead co-conspirators to realize he's been shorting them, and causes them to flip.
Ha Ha that's a good point, cause if he could do this **** without blinking is he really going to be honest and truthful with any co_conspirators?
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:41 PM   #5664
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Redgrape View Post
I'm doing some analysis of the data in R. I'm going to look at a lot of different factors, but here's a cursory look at keys and phone in lap as variables. I turned those columns into 1's as yes and 0 as no. I did a simple OLS regression to see how well those variables predicted his profit. Having keys on the table or phone on your lap should have no significance and no predictive power of his results, just like the color of his shirt or whether its raining.

The keys on the table have no predictive power to how much he profits and has a very high p value, just like we would expect. This throws cold water on the theory about the keys. Even if I look at the most recent 30 sessions, still absolutely 0 predictive power on his profit.

https://imgur.com/a/S3H9JAj

However, the phone being on his lap or not has remarkable significance.

https://imgur.com/a/2sZuLYw

The p value is super low, which means this variable is very significant. When his phone was in his lap, he won an average of $4,546 per session. When his phone wasn't in his lap, he won an average of $227 per session. This should not matter at all if the person is playing fair. But whether his phone was in his lap or not significantly predict how much he wins. This is not deep statistical analysis, I'm just using OLS. I encourage data scientists to look at the Postle spreadsheet and do your own research.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1252155464
It's really hard to analyze the hats, there are over 10 different hats he wears so it's way less clear if a hat correlates to him winning more.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:41 PM   #5665
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

My favorite thing on the past few pages is the correlation between how often there's a poster defending Mike and how often they type a word in all caps (no autocorrect) and the capitalized word is misspelled.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:43 PM   #5666
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by godeep View Post
I've seen nothing in these videos that is proof. And I've watched a lot. Yeah he is looking at his cell phone and yes he is looking at his crotch we can see that..

I know people that look at their cell phone all the time. What if he is following a game, maybe he has a bet on it?! What if he's in a conversation? Some people have cell phone addiction or whatever..

Pls show me one clip of evidence or at what minute of the 5h video from Joey. All I saw so far was that he is also making bad calls on the river when looking at his crotchmonitor.
When you say making bad calls on the river, do you mean making the correct decision based on the opponents holdings in 100% of large pots? Because this is the actual evidence of the cheating.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:44 PM   #5667
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

On the 2nd part of Mike Postle's 'interview' with Matusow, he says at 49:23:
"That's what we try to do on the stream. That's what I've been ASKED [emphasis] to do on the stream. You know, do the best I can to put on a show."

First of all, who is 'we'? If you're just an independent grinder trying to make a living, why would you say 'we'? Furthermore, it seems suspicious that Stones would ask him to behave in a certain way.

If this is accurate, did they instruct other players as well, or just Mike Postle? (Perhaps players that appeared on the stream can shed some light on this.)

In case they only gave these directions to Mike Postle, the way he phrased it seems like additional (circumstantial) evidence that he wasn't acting as a lone wolf, and Stones were going out of their way to artificially create hype around this reincarnation of Stu Ungar on steroids.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:44 PM   #5668
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by auralex14 View Post
Have you not seen the hand where he has J10cx, and calls the $20 flop bet from the guy with top set on a 9 high board, then folds to a $50 turn bet when Postle hits top pair? How can you explain that in any way besides he can see his opponent's holdings?

The crotch and phone stuff is enough when you compare his mannerisms with the phone/crotch prior to 7/18/18 and then after 7/18/18 (the date the cheating most likely started).


I have seen the hand , could you tell me why is he calling the flop when he should know the other guy has a set?
HE looks like a professional crotchlooker at his crotch and then he calls with what exactly? Why doesn't he just fold? If he sees the cards .

27 sessions of 5 5 and up 100k not impossible
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:45 PM   #5669
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Which part of this is impossible? What do you think Postle's winrate is?
Again with this?

Let's everybody stipulate that we do not know Postle's EXACT win rate, though reasonable estimates of how many bb/100 he is up have been provided as well as reasonable estimates of his $/hr win rate.

Let's also stipulate that we do not know the EXACT distribution of win rates of all players at all games similar to Postle's games. Again, over the years the poker community has developed reasonable estimates of these figures. What is considered a good win rate, a very good win rate, an excellent win rate, an astronomical win rate, and an ungodly win rate (DUCY). Most people who have looked into this "scandal" put Postle's win rate north of the excellent win rate.

You've been admonished before critiquing posts in this thread pertaining to Postle's "win rates". At this point you should consider that you have made your point and that you don't need to repeat it ad nauseam.

The next step is to simply delete subsequent posts of yours like this.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:46 PM   #5670
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ukbilly View Post
Ha Ha that's a good point, cause if he could do this **** without blinking is he really going to be honest and truthful with any co_conspirators?
in the interview with Justin, they talked about one of Mikes biggest winning sessions. Justin said he was in for 3.5k which Mike quickly corrected to 4k.

with seat 2 being his preferred position, which has the least camera coverage, he can easily claim to his accomplices that he added on 500-1k extra easily in chips per session.

so yeah he is prob skimming from them too.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:47 PM   #5671
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Old 10-07-2019, 06:48 PM   #5672
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Totally dissapointed that Stones haven't tweeted something today

Quote:
Originally Posted by godeep View Post
I have seen the hand , could you tell me why is he calling the flop when he should know the other guy has a set?
HE looks like a professional crotchlooker at his crotch and then he calls with what exactly? Why doesn't he just fold? If he sees the cards .

27 sessions of 5 5 and up 100k not impossible
Because he has 5% EV with JT vs the 999, and the bet is $20, so if they are deeper than $400 and he expects to always get it all when he hits a runner-runner straight, then the flop call is +EV
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:49 PM   #5673
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by godeep View Post
I have seen the hand , could you tell me why is he calling the flop when he should know the other guy has a set?

HE looks like a professional crotchlooker at his crotch and then he calls with what exactly? Why doesn't he just fold? If he sees the cards .



27 sessions of 5 5 and up 100k not impossible
Because Robert bet 20$ and he can hit backdoor flush and staights which he knows are good against robs set and he can potentially win a massive pot by coolering him.. Garaunteed if he turns equity he continues. He knew exactly what Rob had and was taking a cheap turn because of the massive implied odds in staking his opponents exact hand. Jesus u are dense



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Old 10-07-2019, 06:50 PM   #5674
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryKane09 View Post
in the interview with Justin, they talked about one of Mikes biggest winning sessions. Justin said he was in for 3.5k which Mike quickly corrected to 4k.

with seat 2 being his preferred position, which has the least camera coverage, he can easily claim to his accomplices that he added on 500-1k extra easily in chips per session.

so yeah he is prob skimming from them too.
LOL that's right!

That interview was a body language expert's dream.

I don't pretend to be one, but I know the basics.

In that exact part you're talking about, Postle was both very quick to correct, and emphasized it while turning to look at Justin. I don't even have to re-watch it because it stood out so much. He makes direct eye contact, turns his head and makes an anything-but-casual correction. It has the profile of not being a casual correction, but it's really important to Postle that Justin has it right and/or believes it.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:50 PM   #5675
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by godeep View Post
I have seen the hand , could you tell me why is he calling the flop when he should know the other guy has a set?
HE looks like a professional crotchlooker at his crotch and then he calls with what exactly? Why doesn't he just fold? If he sees the cards .

27 sessions of 5 5 and up 100k not impossible
The reason he calls the $20 is because he has backdoor straight draw (and a less significant flush draw) and his opponent is over $1k behind and has a hand he will go broke on if Postle hits.

Can you explain why he would call the flop bet then fold when he hits top pair?

Edit: on my phone and just saw two others answered your question as well. But if you can, explain why he'd call the flop then fold turn when he hits top pair.
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