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Old 10-07-2019, 04:04 PM   #5551
wiiziwiig
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by 001001 View Post
Not an attorney (thankfully), have been to court, have been involved in both civil and federal criminal cases, have spent lots of good money on lawyers as a plaintiff and defendent, have not seen an episode of Law and Order without falling asleep
Quote:
Originally Posted by bizkit View Post
I'm not an attorney but I have been court and I have a lawyer I can ask w/e to.

I've watched law and order some but not by choice. It's an awful show really...but I have some family members that like it.
Ok thanks for the clarification, was only asking bc I was getting confused on who was who. Im guessing lawdude is a lawyer, thanks in advance for your response too, if you do decide to respond.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:05 PM   #5552
ArtyMcFly
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Nobody that works there is going to be speaking out. They will speak to investigators, but not the public.
Yeah, I think the way this plays out is that someone involved in production (but whom is wholly innocent and wants to remove suspicion of themselves) says to the investigators words to the effect of "The way he could cheat is by someone in the control booth doing XYZ."
And then the investigators are supplied with a list of dates when cheating definitely happened and when it didn't (2+2 can help with this), and they check the room's logbook/diary that shows who was working on all those dates, and whom was in the production booth... and they get a 100% correlation with one particular staff member.
From there, you'd need the statistical proof of ungodly results, along with video evidence during those sessions, but the investigators would at least know the culprits, just from basic interviews and logbook-checking.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:05 PM   #5553
HarryKane09
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by n00ki5 View Post
This is relevant.

The timing of this post is incredibly suspicious, it's a shame that it has been deleted. Did someone screenshot this?
I believe it was this pot; and yeah if my memory is right then there is a screenshot of that specific post somewhere in the thread

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BATK...FDFL2t&index=7
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:10 PM   #5554
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by namisgr11 View Post
The math and the mannerisms are enough.
wrong. and not even remotely close to enough in a court.

Quote:
Physicals:
textbook circumstantial

Quote:
Maths:
more circumstantial. He reads souls and has white magic. deal with it


Quote:
And the biggest maths evidence of all - the huge outlier win rate,
good luck with that Mr. DA


Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
; the biggest problem is that there's an industry that isn't going to want this to be prosecuted.
Do you think Stones owners have the pull to stop these folks.(Stones Team already caught lying to gaming commission by hiding club ownership. They had to pay 500K+ in fines, other fees and licenses revoked for 24 months)


https://oag.ca.gov/gambling/enforce


Also, Card Club Owners have their hands full trying to keep player banked pit games. Tribes are fighting for new rules that would limit their ability to spread those games. The cheating at Stones is the last thing on their minds (except maybe who ever benefits from LATB)
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:12 PM   #5555
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by n00ki5 View Post
This is relevant.

The timing of this post is incredibly suspicious, it's a shame that it has been deleted. Did someone screenshot this?
Yep, I did



And this was a comment that Justin and Postle both laughed at

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Old 10-07-2019, 04:12 PM   #5556
wiiziwiig
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by n00ki5 View Post
This is relevant.

The timing of this post is incredibly suspicious, it's a shame that it has been deleted. Did someone screenshot this?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deeperthoughts View Post
Thanks for posting that. So we know that the internal cheating allegations were happening in March and possibly before March

On March 14th Justin made a public post on his facebook account (it's still on there) showing the hand where Mike shoved the river and got hero called by Ace high, thus losing the hand. He hardly ever posts hands on his public facebook page, he only has one other video posted in the past year.

https://www.facebook.com/JustinFKura...19216769/?t=10



Somebody even responded to the video at the time and said: "Mike Postle loves this hand going out to social media. He'll make thousands off of this epic failed bluff. Love it! #muchrespectmike"

Justin and Mike both reacted to that comment with the laugh emoji on the post

So in the middle of cheating allegations being aired internally about a guy who never loses, Justin just so happened to publicly blast out a video showing his guy in a losing spot. I have a hard time believing this wasn't an attempt to provide cover.
.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:13 PM   #5557
Philbo
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Speculating on whether anyone will be prosecuted, before we have any idea what will be revealed by a law enforcement investigation, is silly.

Just from what we know right now though, no, there is not enough to prosecute. Think of a mob boss. Everyone may know he's a criminal, but if you don't have the hard evidence to prove it, he doesn't get prosecuted.

Does anyone really believe these guys are criminal masterminds though? Does anyone believe they were capable of covering all their tracks? Does anyone believe someone like Postle accurately reported his income for his taxes?

The poker community has done an impressive job flagging these people, but it's going to be up to the relevant agencies to actually take action, and we are all just going to have to be a little patient and see what they have to say about it.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:15 PM   #5558
Telly33
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Even if you can completely disregard or give him the benefit of the doubt as just being Crazy Mike or a wizard in all the dozens of times he's ready to play for stacks on the river with 8 or 9 high or bottom pair on scary boards and never being wrong. So even if we can give him credit for those hands how do we explain all the dozens and dozens of hands any mortal would be thrilled to go check/check on the river or check/call and yet instead of doing that he's always able to put in the thinnest of value plays whether betting or raising for value expertly.

If you're going to play devil's advocate here, I think it's a lot easier to attribute the river shoves to his expert psychology powers than it is to his value plays that are nearly impossible to consistently make for almost everyone.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:15 PM   #5559
lawdude
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
wait, so i dont get confused, amongst lawdude, bizkit and 001001, which of you are actually licensed attorneys, which of you actually go to court, and which of you just watch too much law and order?
Licensed member of the California bar, 24 years experience.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:16 PM   #5560
lawdude
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Gzesh View Post
Bad example, it clearly did not "mean a lot" to that particular jury.
See above. They were never told about it.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:16 PM   #5561
Redgrape
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I'm doing some analysis of the data in R. I'm going to look at a lot of different factors, but here's a cursory look at keys and phone in lap as variables. I turned those columns into 1's as yes and 0 as no. I did a simple OLS regression to see how well those variables predicted his profit. Having keys on the table or phone on your lap should have no significance and no predictive power of his results, just like the color of his shirt or whether its raining.

The keys on the table have no predictive power to how much he profits and has a very high p value, just like we would expect. This throws cold water on the theory about the keys. Even if I look at the most recent 30 sessions, still absolutely 0 predictive power on his profit.

https://imgur.com/a/S3H9JAj

However, the phone being on his lap or not has remarkable significance.

https://imgur.com/a/2sZuLYw

The p value is super low, which means this variable is very significant. When his phone was in his lap, he won an average of $4,546 per session. When his phone wasn't in his lap, he won an average of $227 per session. This should not matter at all if the person is playing fair. But whether his phone was in his lap or not significantly predict how much he wins. This is not deep statistical analysis, I'm just using OLS. I encourage data scientists to look at the Postle spreadsheet and do your own research.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1252155464

Last edited by Redgrape; 10-07-2019 at 04:20 PM. Reason: Image links didnt work
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:16 PM   #5562
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Card View Post
I think you might be onto something here.
He checks twice, scanning the people nearest him, to make sure they are not looking.
Then he quickly jerks his head towards the camera, says a few words and shakes his head.
Nobody at the table sees him do it.

I dunno what he is saying, but it looks to me like this. He starts by saying a name.
He says something like '(name), do you have the cards?'. Then he shakes his head.

You're right it could be nothing at all, but it would be funny if he had just said the name of his accomplice. lol

We need lip-readers:

https://youtu.be/4pSUbMEXHGM?t=5822

Starts at 1:37:03
He speaks to camera around 1:37:20
mike is god first half of this stream > 0:17 , 0:17 , 0:44 , 0:50 , 0:56 , 1:31
mike is ungodly second half of this stream > 1:38 , 1:56 , 2:02 , 2:33

I believe he is trying to mouth something to the camera (reactions to football game on TV are different in every other spots) > 0:59 , 1:37

watch hand at 0:44 JD cards don't get picked up by RFID, someone tells dealer to tell him to reregister cards in real time, who?

watch hand at 1:19 JD cards don't get picked up by RFID, Lance than shows up to table to check dealers headset at 1:24

could deff jus be that n im seeing things but MP was in god mode till/during hand 1:31 out of god mode hand 1:38 n rest of stream … lance makes appearance on stream 1:24 to check dealer headset so know he working/tech. Idk 1:37 looks diff to me than other times MP reacts to game
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:16 PM   #5563
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ilittle17 View Post
Having read every thread and watched all the videos, I just wanted to add a couple of comments to the discussion;

1. There has been a lot of talk of what device is being used. Remember criminals are adaptable. If they are making money and something changes which effects their revenue stream they adapt. Maybe originally text messages/shared screens worked, then security improved and they had to move to a more sophisticated method of communication. We shouldn't discount that a number of devices were used at different times, hence sometimes he looked at his phone, sometimes he seemed to have a hat device.

2. The video showing the change in his play around July 1st is pretty damning. Looks like two different players both in posture and playing style/results.

Thanks to everyone for the amazing work uncovering this cheater.
Why should I remember something that I never knew in the first place.

He's adaptive huh? Well I've seen him play and he doesn't look to adaptive to me. Anyways I gotta leave midpost for some pizza.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:18 PM   #5564
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

So, Stone is going to have to conclude that Mike was cheating, in their casino. From there on there are only two options:
a. Mike had one or multiple accomplices who are Stones employees=Stones in trouble for liability
b. Stones security was SO LACKLUSTER that Mike did this on his own=Stones in trouble for liability

I mean I see no way around this for them. They're gonna have to figure out wtf to do and who to throw under the bus
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:19 PM   #5565
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PTLou View Post
wrong. and not even remotely close to enough in a court.


textbook circumstantial


more circumstantial. He reads souls and has white magic. deal with it



good luck with that Mr. DA




Do you think Stones owners have the pull to stop these folks.(Stones Team already caught lying to gaming commission by hiding club ownership. They had to pay 500K+ in fines, other fees and licenses revoked for 24 months)


https://oag.ca.gov/gambling/enforce


Also, Card Club Owners have their hands full trying to keep player banked pit games. Tribes are fighting for new rules that would limit their ability to spread those games. The cheating at Stones is the last thing on their minds (except maybe who ever benefits from LATB)
I didn't say just Stones. The whole card club industry isn't going to want the regulators or prosecutors to do anything.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:19 PM   #5566
Watsilavit
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by butt factory View Post
+1 to lawdude, good posts. Hindsight is everything. Worth noting that even the guy T-bone who was the opponent in one of the most blatant cheating hands (the 86o river bluff where he leaves opponent getting 6:1 or something, and then 'the graphics were wrong!') said he didn't suspect anything and thought Postle was just owning him. (post is here: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...postcount=5040) That said, Joey has said he has info outside of what we know ITT that makes him suspect more people than the big 3, so we'll see.

Another point that came up yesterday/this morning but just reposting again for visibility - in the crucial hand where Mike had 86o and then the cards change to 98ss (from the opponent, T-bone a/k/a 2cunning4yew on here:



I wonder if he is sure enough to testify in court if it comes to it, because this hand is kinda at the heart of everything when it comes to the involvement of Stones staff.
Important point
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:23 PM   #5567
HensonLosesLots
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Doesn't the software they use for hole cards pretty easy to trace.. aka whose connecting to it, how it's getting setup, etc. All this stuff should have logs, and even if they went beyond the norm and deleted logs - that's still very suspect. But I'm sure even with deleted logs, IT Forensics could get trace data evidence at some point that shows how the software got setup and who was connecting to it... really this would not be hard to prove in a court of law with IT Forensics involved to some extent. Then you mix in his mannerisms, win rates, etc. It'd be an extremely easy case to win if it was brought to court and the investigators actually investigated with computer forensics.

As usual the poker 2+2 humpers making this more complicated then it is. It really comes to whether Stones Casino wants this stained onto their image, and if investigators are competent.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:24 PM   #5568
PTLou
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
I didn't say just Stones. The whole card club industry isn't going to want the regulators or prosecutors to do anything.
There is already a very contentious relationship between CA Card Clubs (CGA) and CGCC.

I'd say the chance of CGA or any other clubs going near this issue is close enough to zero to be zero.

Clubs are already fighting with commission on much much much more important matters.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:31 PM   #5569
kiddo1987
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Grind On My Mind View Post
Guys can we all agree that Mike Postle is the "Little Finger" of the poker world? (Game of Thrones reference)
Little Finger is a brilliant schemer playing 4D chess, especially the Little Finger from ASOIAF.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:31 PM   #5570
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by HensonLosesLots View Post
Doesn't the software they use for hole cards pretty easy to trace.. aka whose connecting to it, how it's getting setup, etc. All this stuff should have logs, and even if they went beyond the norm and deleted logs - that's still very suspect. But I'm sure even with deleted logs, IT Forensics could get trace data evidence at some point that shows how the software got setup and who was connecting to it... really this would not be hard to prove in a court of law with IT Forensics involved to some extent. Then you mix in his mannerisms, win rates, etc. It'd be an extremely easy case to win if it was brought to court and the investigators actually investigated with computer forensics.

As usual the poker 2+2 humpers making this more complicated then it is. It really comes to whether Stones Casino wants this stained onto their image, and if investigators are competent.
It is just as simple as you say, but only if the "happy path" is available, meaning all devices in question still exist, in untampered form, and aren't at the bottom of the river/lake. If they have all those pieces, yes, it should be cut and dry. The chances of them actually having all those pieces is pretty low. Just looking at the PokerGFX server will not be enough if the logs are gone, or if they weren't painfully stupid about how Postle's feed was set up. I've said this before, but if I were a cheating ****, I'd make 100% certain that I was VNCed into a device that was known to be authorized to be logged into the PokerGFX server, and never ever ever log directly into it with the cheating device (the crotch phone).

JFK looks like he's lawyered up judging from his scorched Earth policy towards his social media, and I'll bet that extends to his personal laptop etc.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:31 PM   #5571
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PTLou View Post
There is already a very contentious relationship between CA Card Clubs (CGA) and CGCC.

I'd say the chance of CGA or any other clubs going near this issue is close enough to zero to be zero.

Clubs are already fighting with commission on much much much more important matters.
What you are saying isn't false but it is incomplete.

The Gaming commission is historically extremely toothless about this particular type of thing. As far as I know, no card club in modern California history has ever lost its license for permitting player cheating. The commission will definitely regulate things such as cardroom ownership and spreading illegal games, but it's has simply never performed its purported consumer protection function at anything close to the level it needs to be performed.

I think the desires of the industry and the commission are basically congruent on this thing. The last thing the commission wants to do is to get involved in regulating player cheating in poker games if they can avoid it. And the last thing the cardrooms want is for the commission to get involved in that.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:32 PM   #5572
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Everyone forgot about this cheating scandal where Ali Tekintamgac owned players in several tournaments by getting signals about opponents cards from so called reporters https://www.pokernews.com/news/2010/...media-9319.htm
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:32 PM   #5573
Michael Buble
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by parisron View Post
Isn't that destruction of evidence during an investigation? About JFK Facebook and YT.
This is getting rediculous. You can do with your personal YouTube and FaceBook pages whatever you want. And there certainly isn’t a requirement to keep them public.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:34 PM   #5574
lawdude
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by MasterLJ View Post
It is just as simple as you say, but only if the "happy path" is available, meaning all devices in question still exist, in untampered form, and aren't at the bottom of the river/lake. If they have all those pieces, yes, it should be cut and dry. The chances of them actually having all those pieces is pretty low. Just looking at the PokerGFX server will not be enough if the logs are gone, or if they weren't painfully stupid about how Postle's feed was set up. I've said this before, but if I were a cheating ****, I'd make 100% certain that I was VNCed into a device that was known to be authorized to be logged into the PokerGFX server, and never ever ever log directly into it with the cheating device (the crotch phone).

JFK looks like he's lawyered up judging from his scorched Earth policy towards his social media, and I'll bet that extends to his personal laptop etc.
Being lawyered up means the authorities are going to get his laptop (assuming they seek it and have a legal basis to get it), not that they aren't.

The first thing any lawyer tells a client in potential trouble is "don't destroy anything that might be evidence".

And even if I were to credit the assumption (way too casually flung around here) that all sorts of evidence was destroyed, it's actually hard to destroy evidence without a digital trace. There's all sorts of potential records out there of what might have been happening on that phone- not just the phone itself.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:37 PM   #5575
PrecisionPunting
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Redgrape View Post
I'm doing some analysis of the data in R. I'm going to look at a lot of different factors, but here's a cursory look at keys and phone in lap as variables. I turned those columns into 1's as yes and 0 as no. I did a simple OLS regression to see how well those variables predicted his profit. Having keys on the table or phone on your lap should have no significance and no predictive power of his results, just like the color of his shirt or whether its raining.

The keys on the table have no predictive power to how much he profits and has a very high p value, just like we would expect. This throws cold water on the theory about the keys. Even if I look at the most recent 30 sessions, still absolutely 0 predictive power on his profit.

https://imgur.com/a/S3H9JAj


However, the phone being on his lap or not has remarkable significance.

https://imgur.com/a/2sZuLYw



The p value is super low, which means this variable is very significant. When his phone was in his lap, he won an average of $4,546 per session. When his phone wasn't in his lap, he won an average of $227 per session. This should not matter at all if the person is playing fair. But whether his phone was in his lap or not significantly predict how much he wins. This is not deep statistical analysis, I'm just using OLS. I encourage data scientists to look at the Postle spreadsheet and do your own research.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1252155464
That sounds like incredibly painstaking research and thank you for your time. I wanted to add that I think he uses that little black suspect bracelet as well and that when he uses this it is actually his real keys on the table. Also of note I have observed four different keyfobs. One in the middle of jaman burtons blog avoid mike Postle where jaman takes a pic of his big stack is a clear picture of what I believe are his authentic Infiniti keys. I have noticed three other kinds of keyfobs dating back the past ten months when we are lucky enough to get closeups.
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