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Old 10-07-2019, 01:16 PM   #5426
ChipWrecked
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

In my screenplay, Mike is an innocent witness to a murder in Tunica in 2007. He lams it, finds sanctuary in the Sacramento Valley.

Believing he can grind cash games, make a living and stay anonymous, over time his guard drops.

Eventually the combination of his ego and what he believes is his escape from the Dixie Mafia leads him to accept a seat in a live streamed game at an obscure California card room.

Mike runs well and his anxiety over being spotted on stream abates. None of those rednecks would ever see this stream.

Until the day Gonzo from Biloxi shows up at his door.

Mike is offered a deal. Cheat the stream games, using tech provided by the Dixie Mafia in conjunction with a Stones employee whose sports gambling debts have been bought by the shady organization, in exchange for his life.

StonesGate blows up.

Mike and his daughter enter witness protection. Mike testifies against the Dixie Mafia for the murder in Tunica.

Epilogue: we see Mike in a bar in Montana, enjoying a beer.

Voice from offscreen: Hey buddy, there's a seat open in the poker game in back, if ya wanna sit....
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:17 PM   #5427
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Waltjr View Post
I made my observation based on this stream and how he was barely playing any hands in the beginning. After watching more and given the comprehensive footage we have obv. it seems unlikely.

As far as bolded though, if he knew a Q was coming he would want to fold out QQ to win the pot sooner obviously. Whereas the standard play on the flop would be to call with top pair weak kicker

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AADIsPTsxc
This hand at 4:10:00 would also prove my point about knowing what cards are coming. Given that its likely he cheats on this stream and knows his opponent flops top pair, how does he call and bink set on the turn. Again I don't think its likely he knows future cards and don't even know if any technology makes it possible
True, but the easiest explanation is simply that he was maximizing value. There are a handful of times he would have hit his set, but had folded previously.

I haven't seen anything incriminating that he knows cards to come, only opponent's hole cards. His MO is to have as much money on the table as possible, and get to rivers in mid-sized pots to decide to bluff or vbet. If he knew cards to come reliably, we'd see a fearless postflop, pre-river Postle that we don't really see. He only gets it in absolutely crushing, otherwise he looks to the river.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:19 PM   #5428
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ChicagoJoey View Post
What does he mean by additional (affiliate) revenue? What are some specific examples?

It's clear they used him and his prowess to "sell" the stream, or at least make it entertaining ("Look at this crazy guy making these crazy moves!"). If you are saying some of the commentators (plural) were in on this, well... That is just hard to believe.

It would mean a conspiracy of many, which is notoriously hard to keep under wraps. Especially with so much money changing hands. Were they all getting equal cuts? Was this "affiliate revenue" enough for them? Can you imagine the potential conflicts from within the conspiracy ("I want a bigger share, I'm doing more than you!" etc., etc.).

Having said all of that, I'm well past being shocked at the entire operation at this point. Once you have a "secure" control/server room with people going in and our during the broadcast.... It's just such a joke, so who knows what the limits were.

Perhaps it was like Invasion of the Body Snatchers, and Veronica was the only one they hadn't yet turned? Maybe over time the entire place would be in on the con, with the exception of the 2 or 3 whales they would invite for each stream to chop up their money. Ha! Yeah, another 12 months of this and you would see 6 guys and gals at the table all staring down at their crotches, memes out the ass, everyone running like God, but Berkey and the G-man losing again and again, wondering how those former 1-3 locals at Stones keep taking their money...
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:19 PM   #5429
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by OldManDecaf View Post
I don't know America, and I'm no lawyer, but one of your Legal Eagles (who presumably plays poker) has commented on one of your media outlets, that half your prison population had been convicted on a lot less evidence than this.

Which may of may not be accurate (or even truthfully posted) but it is kinda funny...assuming anyone here has still got their sense of humour.
There's rarely been this much evidence in the history of crime. He literally spent hundreds of hours over a year stealing from dozens of people over dozens of sessions and it has all been recorded on video.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:20 PM   #5430
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ChicagoJoey View Post
I don't have any call to action about the commentators - I think they are incredibly suspicious.

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Don't need to debate ad nauseum but I'm digging in my heels there's major hindsight bias.
I skipped the videos and went straight to the streams and watched the hands play out so that I wouldn't be biased one way or another and would agree. It is increadibly easy to get caught up in the "local cardroom hero does well" narrative as the commentators seemed to.

Add to that Mike seems like a friendly guy who could influence people around him (who knows, he may have even influence a tech or two to do a thing or two for him)

Have to remember that the entire purpose of the stream was to promote the card room, and there is nothing better for a card room than to promote yourself as having the best poker player. The commentators just got stuck in the quicksand of their cognitive biases in supporting this narrative and backing someone who was a friend

One more thing i'd add is there is a lot of very strong evidence for the direct active play of what statistically looks like a cheat while most of the accusations against the commentators are speculative.

This can only dilute the thrust of the story and serve the accused
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:22 PM   #5431
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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There's rarely been this much evidence in the history of crime. He literally spent hundreds of hours over a year stealing from dozens of people over dozens of sessions and it has all been recorded on video.
I think we should manage our hopes. It's virtually all evidence in the category of circumstantial and/or evidence that the public won't understand why it's incriminating. It's an odd predicament, the very reason most people aren't winning players that even attempt to play, and the very reason that most of the public doesn't do more than drunken $10 tournaments, is the same reason a jury will not be able to understand how out of line these hands are.

That said, I'm pretty comfortably sure that there is enough to meet the threshold for a Civil case, but he will not be found guilty in a criminal case, unless something new comes forward.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:24 PM   #5432
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by HensonLosesLots View Post
I doubt there's any technology that can detect which cards are coming... That'd be far too complicated with the cards being read while being shuffled - and there's no need for that technology to exist unlike seeing whole cards for viewers.
Isn't it already been proven that such technology does exist with a loaded deck?

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Old 10-07-2019, 01:24 PM   #5433
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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And the casino has probably removed/scrubbed all physical evidence on site that could have been used to assist.
So you believe that the casino has obstructed justice? Because if anyone did that, they are on the hook for years of prison time if prosecutors decide this is an important case.

Seriously, this is not the movies. In real life, you don't just go out and destroy evidence. For one thing, digital evidence isn't that easy to destroy. For another, obstruction of justice / spoliation of evidence is actually even easier to prosecute than cheating at poker.

If the casino has competent counsel, everything has been preserved. Everything. You destroy one video recording, you make things infinitely worse. (I also believe there's a gaming regulation that requires casinos to maintain surveillance footage for a specific length of time. So they could lose their license and have to close if they destroyed anything.)

Also, it isn't as though the only evidence is footage. There's also all the people who worked at Stones. Many of whom were not in on this. You really think none of them are going to testify that they saw something fishy?

And there's other potential evidence as well. You think Postle didn't order the alleged device in his hat from someone? You think there isn't a credit card receipt out there somewhere?

It's VERY HARD to obstruct justice, and it only gets you in more trouble if you do. The smart play for the casino- and the casino's lawyers know this- is to cooperate with any investigation and to use their political clout to try to keep the sanctions as light as possible.

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It's a weak case unless the jury is comprised of an actual professional poker player peers.
Nope. Give me 4 hours and I could explain this to ANY group of 12 random people.

Quote:
Defense experts will simply say he is being punished for winning money. How statistically significant is his winnings? Well, we don't know because the sample of live players we have to calculated from is basically non-existent. Polish it up a little and it'll sound like a bunch of losing players are crying about losing.
And none of that explains going in and out of God mode, the crotch cell phone, the hats, the not playing when his buddy is out of town, etc.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:26 PM   #5434
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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And the casino has probably removed/scrubbed all physical evidence on site that could have been used to assist.
The key here is the phone - pull the metadata for the IMEI and all it was communicating with during the streams, pull those numbers and match them to names and you have a case

The leaker in D.C was just indicted on similar metadata and they didn't even get the contents of the messages

lawdude is correct - most people here severly underestimate just how stacked the deck is towards prosecutions. There is a reason why the US federal government has a conviction rate that is the envy of even some dictatorships (the standard is lower in civil cases)

People here acting like fed cases are beaten all the time because they see it on TV.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:26 PM   #5435
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

People really don't understand what circumstantial evidence means apparently. Cops seeing you leave a building where a drug deal happened and then finding a car you drove with a duffel bag of cocaine in it is circumstantial evidence. Repeatedly committing a crime on camera for hundreds of hours while 8 different people confirm your identity isn't circumstantial.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:27 PM   #5436
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Manner Please View Post
The video should start by juxtaposing his Stones interview where he brags about waving money in a security workers face and mocking him for his minimum wage job, interstitched with his Matusow interiew where he claims he doesn't care about money/ego, he's the nicest/most humble person ever, etc.



Don't need to debate ad nauseum but I'm digging in my heels there's major hindsight bias. This is the first time there's ever been a livestream cheating scandal. As soon as the idea that cheating is even a possibility is even planted in your brain it's going to totally change how you perceive everything. With all the evidence in our face, many people are still skeptical - so people who are commentating (itself a distracting job) are supposed to make incredibly bold, public, and unprecedented accusations of the organization that hired them?

Here's some food for thought for people who are suspicious of commentators: there's at least one player who PLAYED with and LOST MONEY to Postle that made a vlog complimenting his play rather than accusing him of cheating.

If something like this had ever happened before I would give the commentators much more grief for not being suspicious. But this is an unprecedented scandal.

And for all we know, some commentators may have made those accusations privately, we wouldn't know. I think Veronica deserves a TON of credit for being brave enough to take this public. If she was wrong, SHE might have trouble being welcomed back into a poker scene.

I am, of course, not ruling out that any commentator COULD be in on it (although if I was inside man I'd see no reason to cut them in). I'm just stating that their lack of public accusation against Postle before Veronica, to me is zero reason to be suspicious of them. I also laugh at people who even implicate Veronica. I would bet my net worth that Veronica is in the clear because if she's in on it there's a tiny chance she'd face jail time and why the hell would she ever risk prison time for something that has extremely little upside and massive potential downside?

JFK is the one who had accusations taken to him by commentators and top pros . Cheating WAS planted in his head. He does not have the commentators excuse to say he just wasn't considering that angle. And he didn't just do fail to find evidence, he actively discouraged further investigation. I'm seeing more evidence linking Taylor to it which is also interesting, but even then I like Postle/JFK/Taylor more than just Postle/Taylor.

JFK feeding Postle was the explanation put forth last week that cleanly explains every piece of evidence put forth so far. People want to theorycraft all sorts of other explanations, but the simplest one is still there, still sitting strong, and has not been disproven whatsoever.
I also +1 this, aside from those commentators who had access to the live stream, I don't generally call them "commentators" (specifically JFK and Taylor), even though they played both roles.

My "proof" is that the commentators are most incredulous during the beginning of Godmode, very critical of Postle's play. In latter streams they are almost defeated, like they know it's not good poker but somehow Mike "GetThere" Postle just seems to always get there, and always maximize value in incredibly marginal spots. Confirmation bias. You see these behaviors repeated and get used to them, perhaps even justify them and normalize them.

The result is absolutely commentary that is hard to differentiate from suspicious commentary. My problem is that it's just so easy to explain away. 2-3 times a week, over a period of months, they see Godmode, and so they come to expect Godmode. It's the easiest explanation and there's more important people that should be under the lens, namely anyone who has had access to the tech/livestream. There are now 4 of them, with significant circumstantial evidence against 2, and imo, given the lack of technical skills of 1 of the 2, it's starting to become clear to me, as much as I hate to admit it, who should be the focus of the investigation into accomplices.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:27 PM   #5437
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Hi t bone,

I’m sure you r still lurking. You went out of ur way to say rude things to me. You don’t know me!

You also said I don’t understand stand the super Meta dynamic” betwixt you and Postle.

You are 100% correct! I don’t understand what that phrase means in any way at all. I also don’t understand the relationship between a blatant cheater and a dullard who bluffs off $2500 in a 2/5 game with 9 high.

Congrats on moving to Sacramento and having an imaginary secretary.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:28 PM   #5438
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by 001001 View Post
I skipped the videos and went straight to the streams and watched the hands play out so that I wouldn't be biased one way or another and would agree. It is increadibly easy to get caught up in the "local cardroom hero does well" narrative as the commentators seemed to.

Add to that Mike seems like a friendly guy who could influence people around him (who knows, he may have even influence a tech or two to do a thing or two for him)
I think this is right. Groupthink can be very strong.

As far as other players failing to notice, I think most players would worry that accusing someone of cheating is bad sportsmanship unless you have amazing evidence, and most will also steel themselves against suspecting bad beats, which are so common in poker.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:28 PM   #5439
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Tanqueray View Post
Isn't it already been proven that such technology does exist with a loaded deck?

I don't know honestly I deleted my post.. but unless the dealer does something obvious - like burn a card a head of time then place next card on one of those hole card readers as a way to see a 'rabbit' cam.... but I've never seen this. Nor would it really make sense to have one.. I can't fathom any other way to be able to predict next cards coming without that setup. And I don't know why technology like that would exist in first place - when dealer can just rabbit a card when hand is over if really necessary (some state laws won't allow this tho)
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:29 PM   #5440
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Stones was doing it for publicity for the casino. It probably costs less than a few billboards. Unfortunately, it wound up being bad publicity. However, even the bad publicity gets them on the news and may attract slot players.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:30 PM   #5441
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

If there is a civil case, assuming Postle is found guilty and ordered to repay all the money, what are the chances he actually does? I've heard that often in civil suits people just don't pay and nothing much happens. (An extreme example but when OJ Simpson lost his civil case for murder, he was ordered to pay the families $33m but just never did).

I agree with LJ that unless a co-conspirator flips, he will not be found guilty criminally and a criminal case will likely never even see court.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:31 PM   #5442
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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People really don't understand what circumstantial evidence means apparently. Cops seeing you leave a building where a drug deal happened and then finding a car you drove with a duffel bag of cocaine in it is circumstantial evidence. Repeatedly committing a crime on camera for hundreds of hours while 8 different people confirm your identity isn't circumstantial.
It's not circumstantial if you understand statistics. The moral of the story is "Good luck" if you expect a jury to understand basic statistics, or for a prosecutor to be able to educate people enough to convict.

It's all effectively circumstantial if you empathize with a juror, not if you look at it as a member of the poker community and/or long time player.

What wouldn't be circumstantial at all, would be logs from the pokergfx server, perhaps even phone/data records for Postle's phone that's likely at the bottom of a river right now, or someone flipping and providing testimony.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:31 PM   #5443
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by UnBluffable2018 View Post
There are so many rumors about Mike Postle, one I heard and if it is true everyone at the casino management should make sure their resumes are up to date, like they wil be able to find a jb after this. Anyway here is what someone said, Mike Postle was employed by the company that installed the tables and system. If I worked at McDonald's I can't win a big Mac but This so called Casino allows employs that installed the system to play on the system?

I see Stones discontinued live streaming though.
where does it say he worked for the company who setup the and installed the RFID system. I also want to know what is the reason Lance who is a computer science person has any reason to be a dealer for WSOP? is it to plant fake decks or something. why would a computer guy want to be a dealer, i cant say its because of the pay. Something stinks to high heaven here?
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:33 PM   #5444
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by HensonLosesLots View Post
I don't know honestly I deleted my post.. but unless the dealer does something obvious - like burn a card a head of time then place next card on one of those hole card readers as a way to see a 'rabbit' cam.... but I've never seen this. Nor would it really make sense to have one.. I can't fathom any other way to be able to predict next cards coming without that setup. And I don't know why technology like that would exist in first place - when dealer can just rabbit a card when hand is over if really necessary (some state laws won't allow this tho)
There is a video earlier in this thread where a normal looking phone can read the top two cards from the deck before dealt... meaning that you can figure out what the card is under the burn with one simple device...

I don't think that is what is going on here though.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:33 PM   #5445
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Here's the manual http://www.videopokertable.net/Download.aspx?id=7 from earlier in this thread. You can CTRL+F for rabbit to page 49 and 70 so I think it's quite unlikely he is able to see cards in advance the way this works - just saying it's not IMPOSTLEBLE that once in a blue moon you could spot a critical card with this. Maybe someone's discards or a dealer gets ancy with the river card. I'm something around 2% on this though, don't think this is really happening but good info in the manual nonetheless.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:34 PM   #5446
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

We somehow need to find out if "Stones Live" was something that was really supported by the casino or if it was just something that one employee said to them "hey can we do this" and some big-wig said "sure do what ever" and the regular employees got a green light with no real supervision. Setup this "live stream" to eventually put their inside man in to milk it dry.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:35 PM   #5447
001001
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Bonomo's ears View Post

To wrap this up:
The stream was unlikely to be paying it's way & I can't believe Stones owners/mgmt wouldn't have realised this, so who was underwriting the running costs.

..

Cliffs: the Stones stream wouldn't exist into 2019 without Mike's $$$$
Streaming costs and setup are a pittance compared to user acquisition costs for a casino or card room. It's an effective and cheap form of marketing compared to what most usually spend their $ on
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:39 PM   #5448
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by TboneHadMore View Post
Hi t bone,

I’m sure you r still lurking. You went out of ur way to say rude things to me. You don’t know me!

You also said I don’t understand stand the super Meta dynamic” betwixt you and Postle.

You are 100% correct! I don’t understand what that phrase means in any way at all. I also don’t understand the relationship between a blatant cheater and a dullard who bluffs off $2500 in a 2/5 game with 9 high.

Congrats on moving to Sacramento and having an imaginary secretary.
youre an idiot, why are you harassing one of mikes victims?

plus tbones play was good and that was a godly rebluff on the river. it just sucks that his opponent could see his ****ing cards
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:40 PM   #5449
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by HensonLosesLots View Post
I don't know honestly I deleted my post.. but unless the dealer does something obvious - like burn a card a head of time then place next card on one of those hole card readers as a way to see a 'rabbit' cam.... but I've never seen this. Nor would it really make sense to have one.. I can't fathom any other way to be able to predict next cards coming without that setup. And I don't know why technology like that would exist in first place - when dealer can just rabbit a card when hand is over if really necessary (some state laws won't allow this tho)
It's two separate things to say whether the technology exists and whether it is being used.

I was just pointing out that technology does exist.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:40 PM   #5450
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Streaming costs and setup are a pittance compared to user acquisition costs for a casino or card room. It's an effective and cheap form of marketing compared to what most usually spend their $ on
Keep in mind that the majority of the streaming production team play dual roles. They help set up on stream days, but are dealers/poker room managers the rest of the time.

Their stream was never really that popular, but it also isn't that expensive to run.

I believe there's only ever been one full time person dedicated to just the tech. Maybe 2
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