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10-04-2019, 12:56 AM   #2601
DK Barrel
Concept of the Week author

Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: no gamble, no future
Posts: 6,798
re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Halo_P1 Alright ****wit I’ve had enough of you. You want your answer here it is. First of all I cannot put the calculations into Primedope variance calculator on the internet because it doesn’t go into 15 decimals percentage. So if we go off the scattergraph data that postle is winning at 950bb/100 over roughly 8k hands (52 sessions x 30 hands per hours each session being 5 hours that’s 7800 hands). Now most standard deviations in a game are between 60-160bb/100. But since they are so deep and spazz let’s ramp that up to 400bb/100. Guess how many standard deviations above the mean Postle is running assuming he is an absolute crushing 40bb/100 winner. It’s over 20 standard deviations. Potripper is 7.29 deviations which makes sense because he’s playing a tournament with less decision points, shallower stacks and it’s over a smaller sample. I couldn’t actually find a calculator that would give me the equivalent probability to the Z score so I actually had to ask a guy where I would be able to convert this Z score to a percentage chance of someone with this win rate running this high above eV. He gave me an wolfram alpha output at the odds of these parameters happening as a probability of 1 in 2.49^92. I cannot even begin to fathom how many times you would have to win powerball in a row to get to this probability. Actually you know what f*ck you I’m gonna tell you, the odds of winning powerball is 292million to 1. This guy to do this at a 40bb/100 winrate would be the same as winning the Powerball millions 11 times in a row, this is several orders of magnitude higher than the atoms in the universe. Now please go back to your cave you absolute loser.
Boom This smackdown deserved a little more attention.

Also I want to put my foot in the ass of the next person mentioning the "twitch key". What would that have to do with anything? Why on earth would the realtime raw feed ever be transmitted to twitch? Use your head before you post.

Last edited by DK Barrel; 10-04-2019 at 01:03 AM.

10-04-2019, 12:57 AM   #2602
Jay Why

Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Lundun
Posts: 946
re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by wiiziwiig I know Taylors name was dropped during the 86o hand during the graphics change, when analyzing this hand I googled and found a Stones dealer named Taylor Smith. What proof is there that hes also on the graphics team? If he is, than it definitely sounds like hes in on it.
Taylor Smith is commenting in this video, and in the commentary 29.35 says he has done digital graphics all his life

 10-04-2019, 12:57 AM #2603 Dream Crusher Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: Dallas Posts: 15,670 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) With this getting some national media attention, law enforcement have to investigate this amirite? This would make a great movie or book (or even a 60 minutes/dateline segment). I just hope Postle doesn't profit off it in any way.
 10-04-2019, 12:57 AM #2604 datwizz centurion   Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 195 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) SVP absolutely buried him. I was surprised there wasn’t more “allegedly” thrown in there by him but YOLO when you have Disney law for any defamation (no clue how that works anyways). Either way awesome job SVP. He needs to takes Berky’s Place on that Casino scene meme.
 10-04-2019, 12:58 AM #2605 Sir Huntington banned     Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 2,354 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) Link to sportscenter piece?
 10-04-2019, 12:58 AM #2606 golfbum983 old hand   Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,931 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) This can’t be good for Justin/stones stream/mike Hope they saved some stolen \$ for lawyers and didn’t blow it all on cars and key fobs
10-04-2019, 12:58 AM   #2607
Watsilavit
enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 81
re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by SuitedJunk Sorry... 54 = 41.52% AK x 2 = 2.14# to win / 54.21% to Tie
Don't forget that a third King was dead. The guy playing before Postle folded KQ.
So it was 47.53% (rather than 41.52%).

10-04-2019, 12:58 AM   #2608
27AllIn
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Every night to me is Halloween
Posts: 6,580
re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by golfbum983 Makes me think he wouldn’t play it this way without knowing the flop, why gamble like that if u see other ppls cards, i get it if he can see a flop first but to rip it in for 3k at 41%?
I think he wants to keep up his image that he's a wild-man gambler loco type. What better chance to propagate this than getting it all in with a lousy hand as a favourite?

 10-04-2019, 12:58 AM #2609 parisron Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 14,924 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) If your some sort of poker god who almost never lost and made the right call or fold virtually every single time. If your this good. Why would you be playing in games only with a video feed at 1/3 tables at Stones poker room? Why wouldn't you be in Vegas winning all the money in the world? There might be a perfectly reasonable explanation. ~SVP Sportscenter
 10-04-2019, 12:59 AM #2610 Ten5x journeyman     Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 298 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) To me, the most likely way he cheated was the following: Justin likely helped Mike setup the rfid hack so Mike's phone can directly intercept the rfid. After that, Justin didn't do much else. He then has to press some button in an app on his phone to start reading aloud cards to a headset/bone-in ear thing. After the button is pressed, it reads all the cards exposed on the table. This also makes sense, because it'd be annoying to constantly hear cards being read aloud all day long when you have no decisions. Makes perfect sense when you think about the way he played some hands. Like with that KK vs AA hand. He doesn't bother getting a read on what everyone has, because there's no decision yet. Of course he's going to reraise KK preflop. All the sudden, he gets a large 4b, and now he presses something on his phone, waits awhile (presumably for the app to read aloud the cards remaining), then folds.
 10-04-2019, 01:00 AM #2611 Dvicious stranger   Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 14 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) Bad ideas from bad to worst Bad: Cheat players out of hundreds of thousands of dollars at your poker room in the most blatant ways possible. Worse: Broadcast almost a hundred hours of damning evidence to be used against you in your upcoming massive lawsuit. Worst: Spend dozens of hours taunting the victims of your fraud and theft with memes and jokes completely losing any sympathy in court during said massive lawsuit.
 10-04-2019, 01:00 AM #2612 HarryKane09 centurion   Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 125 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) It sickens me more about Justin than Postle. Postle's life has clearly been like your normal degen/punter poker player. On FB you see the sports bets, he talks about his childhood which included gambling from an early age, he's prob been busto every other month. But you have the TD of the room doing this to his players, his employees. Someone mentioned Kevin Racks (RIP) playing in the room on the stream. Who do you think arranged that? Why do you think Justin arranged that? To get more views by people interested in Kevin's tragic story. Postle is just another degen that every card room has. Justin Kuraitis is something else.
 10-04-2019, 01:00 AM #2613 AGame18 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: GOAT. FORG1V3 Posts: 7,835 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) SVP goating as usual
10-04-2019, 01:00 AM   #2614
Sir Huntington
banned

Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 2,354
re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by HarryKane09 Can a mod edit the title to include Justin Kuraitis too? I think he's gonna be on the search for a new job so anything that can be picked up by google to alert them to this scumbag would be good.
It's 20 spots in or so, 15 or less if you don't count video links. He's ****ed.

 10-04-2019, 01:00 AM #2615 Duffman08 adept   Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: cloud Posts: 843 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) damn that is ballsy by ESPN given the ridiculous PC world we live in these days. props to SVP
 10-04-2019, 01:00 AM #2616 lvprof centurion   Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 128 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) We need the Netflix documentary on this asap
10-04-2019, 01:01 AM   #2617
SuitedJunk
veteran

Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,682
re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Watsilavit Don't forget that a third King was dead. The guy playing before Postle folded KQ. So it was 47.53% (rather than 41.2%).
doesn't change the win percentage though. It does if 54 has the same suit.

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-too...r/texas-holdem

10-04-2019, 01:01 AM   #2618
duh
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 5,747
re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ChicagoJoey I am told various production team members went through Mike who was an agent and player on PPPoker - could there be a connection there?
Group collapses/goes insolvent, Mike can't pay them back and is forced into this scheme as recompense.

10-04-2019, 01:01 AM   #2619
onehandfold
centurion

Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 122
re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dream Crusher This would make a great movie or book (or even a 60 minutes/dateline segment). I just hope Postle doesn't profit off it in any way.
If twitch was around when ESPN made Tilt...

10-04-2019, 01:02 AM   #2620
CCuster_911
You Only Live Once

Join Date: May 2008
Location: ATX
Posts: 24,434
re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by SuitedJunk doesn't change the win percentage though. It does if 54 has the same suit. https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-too...r/texas-holdem
Two guys folded 4s as well. Doug Polk covered all of this. 45 is still a \$ favorite but theres a chance Mike didnt check stream fast enough to see the 4s folded.

 10-04-2019, 01:03 AM #2621 CCuster_911 You Only Live Once     Join Date: May 2008 Location: ATX Posts: 24,434 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) Cant wait for sprotscenter piece. can They show Stones Live clips on their show without buying rights (aka did they show actual clips of mike?)?
 10-04-2019, 01:04 AM #2622 streetintrigue newbie   Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 20 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) Postle said he just wanted the quiet poker grinder life, yet decided to play exclusively on live streams, had episodes specifically named after him and was even involved in producing his own poker show (Dream Poker or whatever). I think he got so deep into this act, the adulation and the awe he inspired in his peers, he just had to keep going.
10-04-2019, 01:04 AM   #2623
IQofTwoPlusTwo
grinder

Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 492
re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by golfbum983 Yeah but sorry I’ve never had the opportunity to superuse, I can’t see other people’s hole cards and run outs and if I did I might play different , wouldn’t you?
Yes. I think the point of seeing other people's hole cards would be to find situations when you can get it in absolutely knowing you have an advantage.

For instance when you have 54s and two people are all-in with AK. Normally, 54s would be a fold, but since you know they both went all-in with AK, you actually have the most equity and can call.

 10-04-2019, 01:04 AM #2624 Andrew Beal grinder     Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 435 re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7m525n SVP Segment
10-04-2019, 01:04 AM   #2625
PLIKITYPLAK
veteran

Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 2,512
re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CCuster_911 Cant wait for sprotscenter piece. can They show Stones Live clips on their show without buying rights (aka did they show actual clips of mike?)?
It was just a commentary. No videos or pictures. Kind of like what grinds my gears by Peter Griffin

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