Quote:
Originally Posted by ComeOnNow
I try to state clearer what I'm saying. Not denying that you have watched many hours live streams and made conclusions based on that. Not arguing that it is wrong, or that Postle is not cheating.
I'm arguing that one can not say 100k$ winnings (or 200k$ if that is correct amount) with 400 hours of play is the proof. Because of statistic. Atm we don't know since there is no good analysis of that. And we should before it is any sort of argument that he is cheating because of it.
Goes for court case as well. To me it seems that at this time only evidence is that there are many pokerplayers that state, that Postle plays the way that he have to be cheating. Proplematic kind of evidence (especially when jury does not know anything about poker), if there is not more.
while i agree, that having a conclusion and looking for proof afterwards, isn't scientific, but it's not that Mike was just on a heater. many pros, whom i would consider 'know what they are talking about', watched a very strange plays, where mike just played perfect. not in a sense like "this is +EV, so i make this stupid play", but "this is a -EV play, but i know i've the best hand".
and statistically speaking: the amount of money won wasn't just a few big pots, that shifted the average winrate. mike is such an outliner, that it reminds of potripper (which was btw a cheater, who was caught b/c of his unlikely winnings and strange/perfect play and not a 'smoking gun'). mike simply misses the crucial amount of 'good play, but lost pots', which is standard for every winning player.
regarding jury: not sure if a jury can convinced (is this even a jury trial btw?), but with mac and kelly arguing for the plaintiffs, i think there's a chance that 'non poker ppl' can be convinced since they not only know poker, but the law