Stones seems like a small place. It doesn't seem to have slots. It says 15 table game tables and 17 poker tables.

So this JFK was the poker room manager. Should that put him at least in the top 5 managers of the place?

As far as Postle, it seems like he had been playing full time for 15 years and was grinding 1/3 NL. So he probably was that good a player. It seems like he liked making those God-like plays and wasn't skilled or clever enough to cheat in a more subtle way.

That is correct regarding stones size. In California non Tribal casinos don’t have slots/VP machines

My understanding was that his title was Tournament Director, not Poker Room Manager.

A little place like that had a full time Tournament Director? This live stream was of a cash game.

yes they had a tournament director, though I've seen justin at the LAPT and I'm assuming he worked at other casinos as well because Stones only ran ~3 tournaments a week and all of them were very small. the TD was also involved in organizing streamed games - usually justin would go around the room with his list if there were open seats to fill in the upcoming stream

Funny, I've long had the opposite reaction, that there is ONLY one. Stones has a tourney every day (including the weekends), plus an evening event on certain nights, plus one on each of the last Saturdays and Sundays of the month. On top of that, they had the streamed cash game a few times per week.

And yet every time I've played at Stones (which wasn't THAT often, I'll admit), JFK was there.

I haven't played at Stones in several years, but the last time I was there Justin had two other tournament directors working for him.

I think the thing you are all missing is this... once someone who has access to the streaming software copies the streaming key, you can access the data feeding to the stream in real time. Do not need to click anything on the computer after that.

So if he had access to the computer for 20 seconds he could have copied the code, entered it on his device and watched it in real time on his phone, or even had someone watch the card data for him and feed him advice.

Its wild that people defend him by saying the game played bigger. Of course it did! A known whale had huge stacks and was playing nearly every hand (badly). Anyone who has ever played live poker knows what happens to a game when the whale gets ~500bb+.

I thought that the ease of access depended on how they'd set up their stream configuration. There was one video about needing to add an extra 'output' stream or something like that.

Has it been confirmed what setup they were using and how it was configured?

I thought I read someone else say they use OBS Studio which is the most common thing...

All you need to do is go to:

File - Settings - Stream

Copy the Stream Key link

once you have the "Stream Key Link" you can watch anything in realtime going through OBS. This would be before any delays.

You can download the software for free... Once you go through the setup process you can see how easy it is to copy to code.

https://obsproject.com/

Yea, but that looks like a regular broadcast package. It doesn't read the RFID cards. I thought I saw Joey talk to someone about the poker side of the system that had a built in delay.

Found it: http://www.videopokertable.net/features.aspx PokerGFX https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qar90n6teQ

OBS should add per session keys

They have somewhat of a point because it makes the statistical win rate argument a little weaker. I.E. if the BB should not really be considered $3, then he didn't really win 1000BB/100 as shown here: https://i.imgur.com/66i3Tii.jpg

But he would still be a big outlier in any reasonable estimation of this game's size.

What would be interesting is to see a graph of standard deviation, in BB/100 hands, of Postle and other Stones stream players. That will give a better idea of the effective size of the game, and I suspect Postle will also be an outlier on this graph, this time on the low side.

One of the key statistical arguments will be the action choices on the river.

If you have perfect information there should be no need to ever just call (unless the opponent is already all-in with their bet). If you're behind you should fold, or *maybe* bluff if the opponent is weak. If you're ahead you should always be raising. The only reason *not* to raise would be to disguise your knowledge. Either way your "went to showdown" number comes down a lot.

When you look at normal poker players they have a pretty significant number of calls on the river.

Those numbers are pretty easy to calculate from the stream data. They even reported them on stream a few times (AND comment how Mike's were weird). You'll see a large difference in Postle's play between CTO mode and reg-donk mode. And I'd bet that one of the numbers lines up with the rest of the Stone's player pool, while the other does not.

Someone needs to check with OBS to see what metadata is logged for this activity. You could tie it to an IP address and get a subpoena for the details. This most likely would have to be done on an internal network so IT admins are in scope as well

This guy has got to be stressed AF now. Unless he was stressed AF before because he had no money so he resorted to cheating. Now he's learning the meaning of the saying, money doesn't make happiness.

If your opponent is bluffing and you know it then raising just opens up the possibility of getting 3bet and having to make a highly suspicious call or just looking funny. Calling river makes sense when you are bluff catching river with a marginal hand.

nobody ever 3bet bluffs river in live poker. ever.

I do.

Well, yea. That's what I meant about "The only reason *not* to raise would be to disguise your knowledge." If you get 3-bet bluff (in that very rare situation) you can stack someone with a hero call. Or you could just *jam* yourself and eliminate that possibility, which makes you move look like a "sick play bro!".

I'm pretty sure I saw him pull similar **** even if it looked suspicious. That's kind of why we're talking about this at all.

Mike Postle sighting (8:30 in the video)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=535_aj2qW_Q

Liked the analysis of his slot play/comps/driving back to Cali, then returning to Nevada just get his slot comp for the night.... then reportedly having them taken away when a poker manager sees him on the slot floor.

Question, if Mike is adjudicated guilty of cheating in California, would Nevada consider formally banning him from its casinos ?

What about other California card rooms, have or would he be banned or unwelcome ?