The law doesn't require certainly, only a preponderence of evidence in a civil case. Mac Verstandig, the lawyer heading the lawsuit against Mike Postle et al, mentioned on The Smoking Gun podcast with David Tuchman that they only need 50% plus one iota to win. That's much greater than 0.00000000000001%.

"In science, 'fact' can only mean 'confirmed to such a degree that it would be perverse to withhold provisional assent.' I suppose that apples might start to rise tomorrow, but the possibility does not merit equal time in physics classrooms." - Stephen Jay Gould

The chance of something extremely rare happening becomes not rare when you multiply the chance of occurrence across an entire population. If I won the lottery, that would be an extremely rare event, but obviously the lottery commission could not refuse to pay me on the basis that my chances of winning were far lower than 50%. This is where Bayesian inference is useful - given that someone has won the lottery, there exists a probability that they won through incredible luck or there is a probability they cheated. Instances of both have occurred before. But it turns out the number of legitimate winners far exceeds the number of people who have successfully cheated the lottery, and now suddenly your 1 in 100 million stroke of luck is paradoxically a lot more probable than 50%.

I will say I am pretty disappointed that there hasn't been more meaningful theory/statistics discussion ITT given the target audience of this forum. I actually think it's a legitimately interesting problem, even outside of the juicy drama.

Yep, I agree. When you posted "If they say everything looks OK & then later something incriminating pops, they look like real jerks" I wasn't sure if you were aware of Justin's previous tweet, which coincidentally mimicked the exact scenario in your "what if" (ie. they said everything looks OK, then later something incriminating popped).

It seems they (Stones or Justin) were just trying to dismiss Veronica's accusation with that tweet and hope this all blew over. Obviously, it did not.

Xenocide YOU jump to conclusions too often. You admitted to that.

Nevertheless people like you who think "outside the box"
make life richer and most geniuses are on the border of crazy.

Without them we wouldn't be anywhere. Anyways you should take a chill pill (not meaning drugs) but chill out and then argue in a sophisticated way. For ure own good


They are joking ABSURDLY OFTEN about being able to see the cards.

I once read that in every lie there is some truth. And they joke about it so often that it seems very suspicious. Who is involved?

I would like to know how many times they said Postle can see cards. I've heard it at least 50 times in the streams and I haven't watched many! HOW many people joked about it and THEN HAVE A PSYCHOLOGIST analyse all the data.

Btw mods, why do I keep getting banned? Last time for exposing a con artist? And before that for telling someone not to use offensive language? Wtf? please don't ban me anymore. Or i will send transcripts to slansky and then you are in trouble! I'm trying to contribute to the case.

The whole ‘he can see the cards’ commentary became a running joke or meme.

Look out how many people post ‘more take is better’ on 2+2.
It doesn’t make it true.

"There's no real evidence that OJ Simpson murdered his ex-wife. I mean, give me a clear surveillance video showing him stabbing Nicole, showing everyone the murder weapons, show me the logs showing that the footage was sent to the security company.... give me something I can throw at his face without any remorse...."

Circumstantial evidence IS evidence. If someone had no alibi at the time of the murder, had a strong motive to commit it, had threatened to commit it on multiple occasions, left his DNA all over the murder scene and the victims' DNA all over his car and house, was seen speeding down the street in his car away from the murders right after they took place, and gave several different explanations for the cuts on his fingers, that's all evidence of murder. Indeed, super-strong evidence.

When you put this all together, it's obvious Postle cheated. There's no innocent explanation for ALL the different facts in this thread. There isn't only one sole acceptable method of proving guilt.

smok·ing gun
/ˌsmōkiNG ˈɡən/
noun
a piece of incontrovertible incriminating evidence.
"the trial's long-awaited smoking gun failed to surface"

People keep bringing this up. But so what? Since when do you need "incontrovertible" evidence to find someone guilty? The standard in a civil case is preponderance of the evidence/more likely than not (over 50% certainty). In a criminal case, it's beyond a reasonable doubt (some compare this to the confidence required before one decides to undergo a serious medical procedure). Neither requires complete certainty to find guilt. Far from it.

Not to mention how many people are currently locked up, on death row, or already have been executed after trials for crimes much more serious than fraud that lacked "incontrovertible incriminating evidence"?

I wish people would stop doubting the strength of this case simply because Postle hasn't Tweeted "I DID IT!"

And if there is a smoking gun in the case up to this point, IMO it's when he frantically is rearranging his cards on the RFID sensors during that PLO hand, then goes on to tell the commentators that he knew only two hole cards were being read. Only someone with access to the stream would know that and attempt to fix it in real time.

When I read the post, I immediately had to look over to the left at your join date and post count. Now I'm confused...

Good luck to you in future logical equations.

When will Stones reveal the results of its internal investigation? I thought the ETA was a while back.... Maybe they've gotten their answer but didn't like it and are now keeping it secret.

I guess we will wait and see. I mean there is a chance this goes either way because of the way juries are unless they settle before this hits trial.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yK4aWk93ug4
06/05/2019 - not on spreadsheet - 3 game mix

https://youtu.be/mBTJkgd7YsQ?t=4296

EZ steal with 94o

https://youtu.be/mBTJkgd7YsQ?t=4598

Mike turning 2 pair, taking a little bite and right after a little peek Max value of course vs top pair

https://youtu.be/mBTJkgd7YsQ?t=4781

raise 3bet and Mike call with K5o, great multiway of course, AK7 flop, other dude flops top pair, bet-call, Mike
turn 2 pair, bet-call, brick, bet and Mike raises the river

https://youtu.be/mBTJkgd7YsQ?t=5058

WTF is going on here? limp limp Mike raise T3o one flat behind (JJ) both limpers call
Flop comes 685 - Mike c-bets big - everyone folds. Hum what???

https://youtu.be/mBTJkgd7YsQ?t=5320

JFK (27:20 talking about not drinking anymore) commenting and Mike in the booth in the end (his Twitch name is DreamSeatPoker - chat moderator also)
I was only going over the NL 1/3 hands, the rest of the stream is Omaha, maybe someone else wants to go over the Omaha hands

My guess the jacks fold cause they see this guy winning everything so he probably gets more folds than the average player in these situations.

I'm sure the cheating has a gaslighting effect, especially on bad players.

The way poor players tend to think is in terms of a guy who is running hot or cold, rather than in terms of ranges and how a person plays. So if they see a guy winning all the big pots, there's a tendency to just stay out of his way. "If I go up against this guy, he's going to kick my butt." Especially with a hand like JJ, which poor players tend to hate because they don't know what to do with it when they don't hit a set and overcards come off.

I've actually experienced the opposite of this-- there's nothing quite like picking up pocket aces when your table image is terrible and having them hold up. You end up winning a massive pot, because bad players assume that if you are running bad, it's going to continue, and they just play back against you with dogcrap hands.

keep up the great work Joey

Joey, i agree with "the strange hands" against special people, it's AC that i recognized already too, Frank the tank, i remember some with Harlan as well.

5 episodes on one session Postle played?!?

Whatever makes you guys happy. It’s a lot of content (and time spent) for what really is “he cheated ldo”

I responded to these in the appropriate thread:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...hread-1285169/

I'm still watching this stream here and i got along a real strange hand now.

https://youtu.be/z2wXZWvCXyQ?t=11947

I mean, it's really rare to see Mike doing the tripple barrel with a hand and being "beat". So far so good.
But now, LISTEN to the commentary on this particular hand here, is this even the commentary on that hand i'm just watching?

https://youtu.be/z2wXZWvCXyQ?t=13047

3:37:30 (keep looking at the marked area under the cap - it's a reflection)
3:37:45 (pops up more bright also shortly)

I recognized this part, because Postle seemed to be frightened by the waitress appearing there suddenly during his decision while staring down into his lap.
So i was watching it twice and saw this then.
He is also turning around awkwardly, with leaving one hand down in his lap there.

This must be the reflection of the phone light there, no?

The light appearing there can also only come from down there, because the front part of the cap is covering up the rest. You can even see then that he must be doing something with his phone there, because the light suddenly much more bright on his upper face.

I made a video that highlights a few hands and features some interesting commentary

Good catch and a great example of him using his phone but trying not to look like it.

Any man who has ever been caught pleasuring himself knows exactly how Postle feels here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2wXZWvCXyQ
08/05/2019

Those two hands are for you Joey:

Just the perfect spot again to limp call pre, and then try to steal it

https://youtu.be/z2wXZWvCXyQ?t=3871

And the hand right behind was this then, guy nutted, Mike so often goes along
with those kind of hands, here he just folds like it's nothing. I wonder why.
I already can hear what the comms would say then, oh he has the gutter, the over AND the
backdoor nutflushdraw, of course "get there" Postle will call this flop and hit then.
But, when the guy nutted already, well, it's a fold.
The more i listen to this Kasey girl, it's giving me headaches. Just like Justin Kelly.

https://youtu.be/z2wXZWvCXyQ?t=4074

Of course he finds the right call here too then
Kasey would be shocked to see the wrong decision here too. No wonder.

https://youtu.be/z2wXZWvCXyQ?t=5837

Jesus Christ. Just listen this commentary here. I can't take any more today.
Double gutter, 456789 LUL What am i even watching here.
And of course Postle gets there. Oh my god.

https://youtu.be/z2wXZWvCXyQ?t=5837

Bet/call bet/call on flop and turn with being dominated.
K on river splits this pot then and Mike doesn't use his magic powers to shove all in
to push his opponent of the split here?
This hand is still making me think about it. Something is strange here.
For that we know he doesn't have god mode here now, because we know what he would do then.
It really seems that sometimes he is on/off god mode during sessions, whyever this is, i have
no clue, it could be also that sometimes he doesn't have the information on
his phone at this point, whyever.

What is also strange here that suddenly while Mike was putting money in being behind,
the booth muted itself, so we can't hear the great comms on his play here along.
I would have loved to listen to it here really.

Also you can hear Mike's reaction at the table after 3:22:54, i mean, what is that?
He really seemed surprised that he chopped this pot here, but he says he first hated
the K on the river.
He seemed to be as surprised as Kasey 3:23:54 who actually says first that Harlan was saved
by the river. LUL

https://youtu.be/z2wXZWvCXyQ?t=11947

Isn't this an easy call with the gutter for the god here?
Well no, not if one dude has 55 of course, then it's a fold.

https://youtu.be/z2wXZWvCXyQ?t=16035

QUESTION for you guys here, the comms are commenting on things that were happening 20-30 mins earlier.
So it should be possible for the man behind the scenes who is seeing the stream in REAL TIME (in
this case it was Taylor here again - he appears shortly in the booth) to get mutes on
in "unwanted" moments, right? For example he could send messages in chat, or via other ways.

yea the booth was definitely able to communicate with the commentators. from what ive seen, Taylor seemed to yell at them from the booth, JFK would type in chat sometimes.

i cant recall the source, so take this with a grain of salt, but i remember hearing that JFK or Taylor said that they would text Mike to see what he had "when the graphics were wrong". Mb someone can confirm, deny or provide a source to this. Now who knows if they were lying or not to cover something up but to admit that someone with access to the undelayed livestream would be texting a player at the table is ridiculous. Ppl outside the booth (JFK) should not have access to the livestream, the booth should not have electronics that can have coms with the outside world, and they should never be communicating directly with players from the booth, it should only be done through the dealer.

In the last hand at the 20:01 mark, it looks like postle flips up the ace of spades while the graphics indicate he had Qd 8s. Anyone else agree with this?