I am enjoying all the original material emanating from this scandal. From the poker shirt that says, Crotch Optimal Theory to someone who videotaped their 5 yo kid trashing MP. Funny. Even the music video of the dude that dressed like MP in his kitchen....omg.....

Just when poker was starting to be a grind!

I’m hearing a movie in the works already. Omg..
Clearly the lawsuit will be settled and everyone of the 20+ something plaintiffs will get a minimum $150k after attorney fees (take the money).

Only problem as I see it -there are two dudes not happy in this story....maybe a third. Jail time and life long garnishing of wages.

Hint: First guy that flips gets the best deal!

I guess culture is a powerful thing. If the commentators are told to never criticize, what is left when they see Postel's plays? Adoration and worship. And if the commentators aren't suggesting it's fishy and that Postle is a top pro then maybe that leads the minds of the viewers down that same path.

Why do some still worship as God the one who said to Abraham, essentially, slice off part of your penis for me? Humans can believe anything.

Because it wasn't a 'telecast'. It was an online stream, being watched by about 100 people.
It took a commentator to report it, and the commentators were the ones who watched most of the footage, as they were paid to do so. At least not all of them had drunk the Kool-Aid.

I doubt many actual viewers had watched enough footage to be able to put the pieces together on what was going on.

One more.

Thanks for that, and to 'JustSome1' as well. I found a sequence from the 6/22/18 session at 1:07:36 where he presses home, then the far upper-left icon, which brings up blue bubbles, indicating iMessage. He then clicks the upper-left back-arrow within iMessage to get to the list of conversations. Based on how he used this same sequence once he started using God mode in later sessions I'm starting to think iMessage may have been one of the mechanisms he used to cheat, which obviously would require an accomplice. Will need to look at more video though.

Here's the clip at 1:07:36 I described above: https://streamable.com/brcfi

Good stuff!

😂😂😂

I still gotta, i can't help it.

It's quite difficult to see specific apps so I'm not sure how we're going to overcome this outside of an extremely spectacular camera shot. Since we have such little information I think a decent place to start would be if his home screen looks different/any apps added, especially before/after close to the July 18 2018 date.

Please stop.

Can't have people possibly being offended (for others) by a joke. It would be against the law.

I'm not really expecting to get a full view of an app. I'm instead looking for partial visual clues in combination with analyzing touch gestures and matching those to major UI elements in common apps. Naturally I've also been comparing his home screen icons between sessions as well.

I have been playing poker for 8 years and Im going to start by saying this:

Its not easy to win at poker, it takes a lot of hard work and dedication. Only a small % of poker players actually win money in the long run(due to rake from the house, and skill gaps etc.)

Lets assume we have no video footage of mike staring at his crotch every hand, lets say we have no footage at all of mike even playing poker.
Lets say his actions are not even suspicious. All we know are the numbers and were even going to skew them in mikes favour as much as possible.

I think most poker players would agree that the average live crusher
wins at an avg big blind per 100 hands of 25bb/100(its probably less than that tbh).


For arguments sake, lets assume the best live poker cash game player in the
world right now is Jimmy, lets say Jimmy's win rate is a whopping
50bb/100 when playing at stones live casino with a very
high std deviation of 125(to increase variance). A winrate like this
is un heard of in poker but well assume its real just to help Mikes
case. The odds of Jimmy with this winrate going on a run similar
to Mike postles is mathematically impossible and this can be calculated.

Now lets say Mike is even better than that. Lets ignore the interviews of mike actually explaining his thought process. Lets say Mike is a "GOD". Lets give him a winrate higher than Jimmy. Lets say that Mike is 3 times better than Jimmy at a staggering 150bb/100 the best win rate the poker world has ever come close to seeing. Lets give him a high std deviation as well to increase his variance(125). Mike played a lot of poker at stones and I think we can safely assume at an avg live game (30 hands per hour) Mike has played close to 10k hands on film. People need to understand 10k hands is a lot of hands and can in fact prove many things. We don't know for sure yet what Mike's win rate is over those hands due to the many graphics errors but i think its very safe to assume he was winning anywhere between 600-1000bb/100, only time will tell.

Now, lets see what the probability of Mike(3 times better than the best live
player in the world) running at a whopping 600bb/100 over 10k hands actually is.

After simulating it on a widely used poker variance calculator(https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/)
We come to the conclusion that:

EV (»?«) 150.00 BB/100
Standard deviation (»?«) 125.00 BB/100
Hands(»?«) 10000
Expected winnings (»?«) 15000.00 BB
Standard deviation after 10000 hands (»?«) 1250 BB
12.50 BB/100
70% confidence interval (»?«) [13750 BB, 16250 BB]
[137.50 BB/100, 162.50 BB/100]
95% confidence interval (»?«) [12500 BB, 17500 BB]
[125.00 BB/100, 175.00 BB/100]
Probability of loss after 10000 hands (»?«) 0.0000%
Probability of running at or above observed win rate (600.00 BB/100) over 10000 hands with a true win rate of 150.00 BB/100 (»?«) 0.0000%
Probability of running below observed win rate (600.00 BB/100) over 10000 hands with a true win rate of 150.00 BB/100 (»?«) 100.0000%
Minimum bankroll for less than 5% risk of ruin (»?«) 156 BB

It is in fact mathematically impossible for a man 3 times better than the current best player in the world to actually win at these rates over
a very big sample of 10,000 hands. Online poker sites have in fact caught plenty of cheaters and bots in the past based on their win rates and gameplay alone. This man is cheating in broad daylight on camera and people are debating this?

Don't need a special phone... All you need is a computer at home, and phone. The phone with a program like "Go to my PC" or "LogmeIn" which allow you to control a PC from your PHone. From there, you can control your computer at home and it is on your screen on your phone. From there you pinch and zoom to fit the cards on screen.

Good find.

You can get a lot crazier than that. 50bb/100 isn't the cap for the best winners in deep stack live games. Let's say he has an observed winrate of 500 bb/100 but with straddles and such he has a winrate of 250 bb/100. Let's also crank up the standard deviation to 800 bb/100 (because why the hell not). Surely he must be somewhat likely to barely double his actual winrate right?

To win at 500bb/100 when actually crushing at 250bb/100, even with a SDV of 800bb/100, he comes in at less than 0,1% chance of doing such a sunrun. Of course we're talking about a guy who gets it in preflop with 54 off suit, so the argument that he is simply the best player ever doesn't stand. You can't simultaneously say he is a good player on a heater and have him donk off preflop with 54o. Realistically he is slightly profitable at best. In that case it is astronomically impossible to win that much. So improbable that I would put a revolver with the same amount of chambers as the odds of it happening with 1 bullet in it to my head and happily pull the trigger.

It's that smile, glossed as "Duper's smile", at 21:00 that really creeps me out.

Exactly my friend, I just tried to put it in layman terms for all the "Lawyers" in the chat.
Then you have this brilliant Lawyer who is representing Mike using a quote like:https://www.pokernews.com/news/2019/...onds-35653.htm

Postle's lawyer: "When I play poker I lose almost every hand, so I know such streaks are possible." Yeah this guy clearly knows what hes talking about.....
goodluck Mike

What if one of the players was a detective or FBI agent just patiently building a case to charge them...... That’d be cool......Or not cool if they outed him before they could get some stone cold solid evidence... I think there’s enough though....

I would wager that bb per 100, standard deviations and confidence intervals are actually not layman terms

Good posts both. Thanks for pulling that together. Was going to comment that 125BB var not wide at all at the insane winrate of 150BB and Kelvis shows why it doesn’t matter all that much. At some point someone will gather the real inputs on all this stuff and I expect it won’t change the needle all that much. And it keeps us away from statements that are too extreme like “a once in five universe event.”

Like they were gonna raid the next live stream or something and search and gather evidence...

It's surprising the other players didn't adjust to him considering this went on for so long. Like so many spots where they could hero call his ass.

Anyways if mike truly was a crusher he could go on PokerGO or LATB and crush there as well. Love to see him without his bone headset sititng with Andy, Garret, Nick V and Art.

The assumption that he has won 600-1000bb/100 is all but proven to be false.

Assumptions made:
Player A has winrate of 50bb/100 std dev 125
Player B has winrate of 150bb/100 std dev 125
30 hands per hour
10k hands
600-1000bb/100

The 600-1000bb/100 was calculated at a big blind of 3 and big blind of 5, at roughly 10k hands and $305k earnings. There are many who argue that the game "played bigger" and that there were ginormous straddles that inflated win rates. It's debatable whether capped vs uncapped and non-mandatory straddles would factor into his long-term bb / hour but it is worth factoring in, imo.

The findings from the original spreadsheet should be discarded. It was made by checking starting and ending stack, not counting addons. Joey has gone through two streams and found that Mike was up more than 2x less than what was originally reported.

Given light of this new information, I think it best for us to proceed as though Mike Postle is telling the truth about winning 125k until proven otherwise. It is better to be conservative with the numbers as we do not want to give off the impression that we are exaggerating to prove our point when there is so much evidence pointing to his guilt than his bb / hour.

I posted adjusted win rates here if you are interested. Please let me know if you find any errors in my calculations.
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...postcount=8125

Sidenote, I think a picture of the chart produced by primedope would be better if you plan to use it in the future as copy pasting comes out a tad bit hard to read.

Berkey's doing a live premiere podcast right now.

In the end any numbers and STDEV you take don't matter. You can't put much of a positive winrate in the calculator because of the hands like calling off stacks with 54o and such. Even $40k is unattainable for someone with the skills of Mike. Can't have him be the best player ever but also making ******ed plays that are only good plays if you see the cards.