Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)
10-07-2019
, 07:09 PM
Quote:
Yes, he was known to be spewy. Indeed, I think it's in the very first or 2nd cheating session where Postle makes a ridiculous superuser bluff, and Frank the Tank (??), who has played with him for years, snap-calls with a weak pair of sevens. Franks later explains to the commentators that he's always trying to pick off Postle's airball shoves.
There is no evidence of cheating with Justin as the accomplice, here. That said, no well-managed live stream would ever allow the manager to phone someone from the commentary booth (or anywhere in the building) direct to a player at the table while the stream is live. The negligence here is appalling.
Screengrab from 30 minutes later in the table footage, when Mike gets the phonecall from JFK:
There is no evidence of cheating with Justin as the accomplice, here. That said, no well-managed live stream would ever allow the manager to phone someone from the commentary booth (or anywhere in the building) direct to a player at the table while the stream is live. The negligence here is appalling.
Screengrab from 30 minutes later in the table footage, when Mike gets the phonecall from JFK:
Hit play on both videos you can use this link to literally watch the phonecall in real time assuming the stream is on a 30 minute delay (it is and correlates perfectly with the call). Drag the blue bar in the middle up to 71:55 to see the call.
Notice how the commentary booth on the left matches up perfectly with the action on the right stream. also it helps a lot to mute the stream on the right while viewing this.
10-07-2019
, 07:10 PM
Let's take a couple of scenarios with that hand, where Hero is Postle and we don't know what Villain has.
1. Hero thinks Villain has a wide range, is c-betting everything on that dry board, and that if Hero hits either of his pair outs he's likely to be good. Plus he's got the backdoors.
Then, tearing one off for $20 on the flop is totally defensible, even if you could also fold it. But having torn one off, you are of course going to call the turn, because you hit your card, he could still be barreling his ace-king, you have 2 pair or trips outs if he's got an overpair, and you can decide if the river bricks out whether to call a big 3rd barrel.
2. Hero thinks Villain does not have a wide range, and the pair outs are often no good or compromised (if Villain has AT or AJ).
Well, then, Hero folds. The only out he's sure of is his backdoor straight, and that's worth the equivalent of 1 out or something. The backdoor flush carries substantial reverse implied odds-- Villain could easily have an overpair with a club in it.
There's no scenario where you call the flop, bink your pair out, and fold the turn.
And that's one of the major problems here. One of the things that would have helped him cover his tracks would have just been to pay off in some obvious situations. In this situation, to say "OK, I hit my jack, this sucks big time but I'm going to have to call this turn bet because it looks so suspicious", and then either call a small bet on the river or make a Hero fold to a big bet (unless he makes 2 pair or trips, in which he may have to raise-fold the river).
Similarly, with the TT against the AA, call the turn and then call a small bet or hero fold a big bet on the river (or bink a river T because, after all, he's Mike Postle
). He forgot that he is being recorded on video and needed to look mortal.
10-07-2019
, 07:17 PM
Quote:
no, the smoking gun is that his winrate/hourly is literally impossible in a game that size.
^extrapolating 30 hands/hr with an effective $10 big blind, that's
$830*3.33333 = $2767 won per 100 hands
for a winrate of 276.7bb/100
and by any metric you want to look at, with a pretty standard $100/hr EV for a good reg in the games, this is literally impossible-
MBN to never have a >5 buyin downswing. in the real world, we just call that a cheater.
but i'm sure postle just manages to do it somehow with the ol' 95o in his 4b defense range
^extrapolating 30 hands/hr with an effective $10 big blind, that's
$830*3.33333 = $2767 won per 100 hands
for a winrate of 276.7bb/100
and by any metric you want to look at, with a pretty standard $100/hr EV for a good reg in the games, this is literally impossible-
MBN to never have a >5 buyin downswing. in the real world, we just call that a cheater.
but i'm sure postle just manages to do it somehow with the ol' 95o in his 4b defense range
+1. If a bumhunter gets the action from a whale HU, doesn't matter if his ranges are ****.
10-07-2019
, 07:19 PM
Quote:
Sure it can. But the problem is the the flop reasoning and the turn reasoning don't add up.
Let's take a couple of scenarios with that hand, where Hero is Postle and we don't know what Villain has.
1. Hero thinks Villain has a wide range, is c-betting everything on that dry board, and that if Hero hits either of his pair outs he's likely to be good. Plus he's got the backdoors.
Then, tearing one off for $20 on the flop is totally defensible, even if you could also fold it. But having torn one off, you are of course going to call the turn, because you hit your card, he could still be barreling his ace-king, you have 2 pair or trips outs if he's got an overpair, and you can decide if the river bricks out whether to call a big 3rd barrel.
2. Hero thinks Villain does not have a wide range, and the pair outs are often no good or compromised (if Villain has AT or AJ).
Well, then, Hero folds. The only out he's sure of is his backdoor straight, and that's worth the equivalent of 1 out or something. The backdoor flush carries substantial reverse implied odds-- Villain could easily have an overpair with a club in it.
There's no scenario where you call the flop, bink your pair out, and fold the turn.
And that's one of the major problems here. One of the things that would have helped him cover his tracks would have just been to pay off in some obvious situations. In this situation, to say "OK, I hit my jack, this sucks big time but I'm going to have to call this turn bet because it looks so suspicious", and then either call a small bet on the river or make a Hero fold to a big bet (unless he makes 2 pair or trips, in which he may have to raise-fold the river).
Similarly, with the TT against the AA, call the turn and then call a small bet or hero fold a big bet on the river (or bink a river T because, after all, he's Mike Postle ). He forgot that he is being recorded on video and needed to look mortal.
Let's take a couple of scenarios with that hand, where Hero is Postle and we don't know what Villain has.
1. Hero thinks Villain has a wide range, is c-betting everything on that dry board, and that if Hero hits either of his pair outs he's likely to be good. Plus he's got the backdoors.
Then, tearing one off for $20 on the flop is totally defensible, even if you could also fold it. But having torn one off, you are of course going to call the turn, because you hit your card, he could still be barreling his ace-king, you have 2 pair or trips outs if he's got an overpair, and you can decide if the river bricks out whether to call a big 3rd barrel.
2. Hero thinks Villain does not have a wide range, and the pair outs are often no good or compromised (if Villain has AT or AJ).
Well, then, Hero folds. The only out he's sure of is his backdoor straight, and that's worth the equivalent of 1 out or something. The backdoor flush carries substantial reverse implied odds-- Villain could easily have an overpair with a club in it.
There's no scenario where you call the flop, bink your pair out, and fold the turn.
And that's one of the major problems here. One of the things that would have helped him cover his tracks would have just been to pay off in some obvious situations. In this situation, to say "OK, I hit my jack, this sucks big time but I'm going to have to call this turn bet because it looks so suspicious", and then either call a small bet on the river or make a Hero fold to a big bet (unless he makes 2 pair or trips, in which he may have to raise-fold the river).
Similarly, with the TT against the AA, call the turn and then call a small bet or hero fold a big bet on the river (or bink a river T because, after all, he's Mike Postle
). He forgot that he is being recorded on video and needed to look mortal.
Thank you! I've see the hand but was stoned guess I have to look for it again. And the Jack ten hand is the biggest evidence now right?
10-07-2019
, 07:22 PM
Quote:
This is getting ridiculous! Yes you had me aboard when I watched your videos with the claims. BUT NOW IT FEELS LIKE A WITCHHUNT!
...
Watching her comment the QJ HAND was very tilting. HE folded to Marley on the turn to with top pair so what? Good play in my books. And she is mumbling 10 times that's crazy! No it's not! That's what good payers do when facing big bets with marginal hands. That's why she is losing probably.
...
Watching her comment the QJ HAND was very tilting. HE folded to Marley on the turn to with top pair so what? Good play in my books. And she is mumbling 10 times that's crazy! No it's not! That's what good payers do when facing big bets with marginal hands. That's why she is losing probably.
Mike must be feeling like the walls are closing in now after that part 2 interview. If an argument such as the above, or 'maybe he was watching a ball game on his phone' are the best ones he can come up with at this point, then he'd be far better off giving his side of the story before anyone else in on it tries to spin it their own way first. Because that time is fast approaching....
funny
10-07-2019
, 07:24 PM
