Quote:
Originally Posted by godeep
Thank you I missed that. I have to watch at the hand again. Sorry. Top pair cam be folded vs too much action, bad kicker...several reasons
Sure it can. But the problem is the the flop reasoning and the turn reasoning don't add up.
Let's take a couple of scenarios with that hand, where Hero is Postle and we don't know what Villain has.
1. Hero thinks Villain has a wide range, is c-betting everything on that dry board, and that if Hero hits either of his pair outs he's likely to be good. Plus he's got the backdoors.
Then, tearing one off for $20 on the flop is totally defensible, even if you could also fold it. But having torn one off, you are of course going to call the turn, because you hit your card, he could still be barreling his ace-king, you have 2 pair or trips outs if he's got an overpair, and you can decide if the river bricks out whether to call a big 3rd barrel.
2. Hero thinks Villain does not have a wide range, and the pair outs are often no good or compromised (if Villain has AT or AJ).
Well, then, Hero folds. The only out he's sure of is his backdoor straight, and that's worth the equivalent of 1 out or something. The backdoor flush carries substantial reverse implied odds-- Villain could easily have an overpair with a club in it.
There's no scenario where you call the flop, bink your pair out, and fold the turn.
And that's one of the major problems here. One of the things that would have helped him cover his tracks would have just been to pay off in some obvious situations. In this situation, to say "OK, I hit my jack, this sucks big time but I'm going to have to call this turn bet because it looks so suspicious", and then either call a small bet on the river or make a Hero fold to a big bet (unless he makes 2 pair or trips, in which he may have to raise-fold the river).
Similarly, with the TT against the AA, call the turn and then call a small bet or hero fold a big bet on the river (or bink a river T because, after all, he's Mike Postle
). He forgot that he is being recorded on video and needed to look mortal.