Quote:
Originally Posted by AGame18
I likely won’t be posting any more on this after this, but again, I disagree. And your implication that circumstantial evidence is less valid or damning than direct evidence is a common myth by lay persons. Neither is necessarily stronger or more credible than the other. It depends on the level of detail and the specific nature of the respective evidence. Many many criminal prosecutions are based largely or solely on circumstantial evidence, and most of those cases have significantly less evidence than what we have here. Your plea comment is a strawman. All prosecutions are more likely to end in a plea than a trial. I’m sure this one would be no different. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s because prosecutors do not feel confident in their case. Quite the contrary sometimes. Trials take time and money and come with all sorts of uncertainties and likely appeals. Lots of reasons why pleas are preferable, even with a slam dunk case.
Again, much work would need to be done to get it in shape to present to a factfinder, but as I said, I would feel super confident as a prosecutor here. And as a plaintiff’s attorney in a civil case, I would be doing cartwheels.
Civil case? Maybe. Criminal? No. Burden of proof is on the prosecution. Defense has say so in jury selection. It isn't too difficult to find someone that has lost in a casino and thinks they rig it again at the player. They could easily find this as payback and refuse to find guilty.
You would also have to get lay people to understand complicated math, variance, and statistics. Some will lose interest and start to think about going home. Expert witnesses are useful, but in this case, reasonable doubt is not a tough battle. "My client was extremely lucky and many other people have been lucky, too. He has records of winning money in poker for 15 years, etc....." Reasonable doubt is not a tough battle here.
All that goes away if a co-d is found, they apply pressure, and get to flip. If there is allegiance and no one talks, it is a tough case to win.