Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post) - Page 48 - Poker News

WTF does that mean!!! Where is everybodys proof!!! Its like The life of Brian from Monty Python here IMO... screaming for screamings sake... put up or shut up!!! #liedetector!!!!!

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The streams are the proof. I'm not a lawyer but I think that by themselves they may be enough for a civil judgement. I haven't watched all of it or even most of it but what I have seen is obviously cheating.

Regarding his win rate, we need to get a better feel for the impact of the deepness, like what are the stacks in the 1/3 games at the start, half way through and near the end of each stream. $600/hr at 1/3 over 52 hours seems impossible no matter how you run but if stacks are 20K and you run hot it may not be unreasonable.

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10-02-2019 , 03:02 PM

#1178

Ten5x

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 359

Posting individual hands where he makes some unorthodox play that works out amazingly doesn't really mean much. My friend plays a pretty unorthodox fairly lag style and has been a pro for 15+ years. I'm sure if you recorded a year of his plays, you'd find 50 or so plays that look absolutely absurd and make no sense except if you thought he could see the hole cards. Only difference between Mike and him is that my friend probably gets stacked at least twice per session on average, making some seemingly idiotic bluff, hero call, thin value bet, etc. That's what happens when you make a lot of bluffs, hero calls, thin value bets, etc.

With how unorthodox and non-nitty this dude plays, it should be basically no trouble to find him spewing off a stack.

Last edited by Ten5x; 10-02-2019 at 03:07 PM.

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10-02-2019 , 03:03 PM

#1179

Primedirective@

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 83

Quote:

Originally Posted by bc11816

He is terrible at poker, its very clear from all the hands he was involved in, he is a clueless. Its very easy to see if you are a poker player that he knows nothing about poker or just completely ******ed and very low IQ.

If Phil Hellmuth was at this table, this thread would not exist...pissed and on a heater is not proof of cheating... where is the proof????

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Quote

10-02-2019 , 03:03 PM

#1180

lovedaphils

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 516

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Drogo_

He doesn't have to leave, all he has to do is stop doing it. It is going to be borderline impossible to get hard evidence that would lead to a criminal charge, especially now that he knows the jig is up.

Now based on how bad and obvious he was at the cheating I can believe he might be dumb enough to fail at a cover up too but it would be so easy to clean this up. Everyone who knows anything about poker knows he was cheating but what physical evidence can come out of this at this point?

Without a confession from someone involved and/or some evidence like searching his phone and finding the cheating software on it, how can he be charged with anything? And how would a warrant to search his phone happen? As compelling as these hands are as evidence to poker players I can't imagine they are sufficient to get police involved.

On the other hand he is laughably dumb so hopefully he'll find a way to blow it.

That's why so blatant that's why the posts here (12 posts 17 posts etc,) and Justin's response seem so sh*t eating, it's done likely yeah. But after a year or so they were well above EV with all this so they didn't even care at that point, it was icing.

Law Enforcement: so it was a poker game? ok well you gambled, and you lost...

Judge tongue lashed Bitar but sent him on his way...

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10-02-2019 , 03:04 PM

#1181

Gorre187

journeyman

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 269

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ten5x

Posting individual hands where he makes some unorthodox play that works out amazingly doesn't really mean much. My friend plays a pretty unorthodox fairly lag style and has been a pro for 15+ years. I'm sure if you recorded a year of his plays, you'd fine 30 or so plays that look absolutely absurd and make no sense except if you thought he could see the hole cards. Only difference between Mike and him is that my friend probably gets stacked at least twice per session on average, making some seemingly idiotic bluff, hero call, thin value bet, etc. That's what happens when you make a lot of bluffs, hero calls, thin value bets, etc.

With how unorthodox and non-nitty this dude plays, it should be basically no trouble to find him spewing off a stack.

Thats the problem there are no such hands.

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10-02-2019 , 03:06 PM

#1182

sirswish6

Iron Sharpens Iron

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 7,055

Quote:

Originally Posted by bc11816

completely disagree, his sizings are too brilliant, at worst he is a slightly above average player

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10-02-2019 , 03:08 PM

#1183

Gorre187

journeyman

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 269

Quote:

Originally Posted by Primedirective@

If Phil Hellmuth was at this table, this thread would not exist...pissed and on a heater is not proof of cheating... where is the proof????

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The proof is variance calculator.. Js84 has posted his results. Anybody who has any doubt left after this is either extremly stupid(poker understanding/mathematical wise) , or trying to help Mike knowing that he cheated by derailing thread with nonsense.

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10-02-2019 , 03:08 PM

#1184

Primedirective@

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 83

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ten5x

Posting individual hands where he makes some unorthodox play that works out amazingly doesn't really mean much. My friend plays a pretty unorthodox fairly lag style and has been a pro for 15+ years. I'm sure if you recorded a year of his plays, you'd fine 30 or so plays that look absolutely absurd and make no sense except if you thought he could see the hole cards. Only difference between Mike and him is that my friend probably gets stacked at least twice per session on average, making some seemingly idiotic bluff, hero call, thin value bet, etc. That's what happens when you make a lot of bluffs, hero calls, thin value bets, etc.

With how unorthodox and non-nitty this dude plays, it should be basically no trouble to find him spewing off a stack.

So the whole ,"He's thinking that I'm thinking that he is thinking that l know he knows that im thinking my 9's are not good, but I'll shove anyway" theory is not an option here then, eh?
Fu k me dead!

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10-02-2019 , 03:10 PM

#1185

-BD-

newbie

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Utopia

I couldn't help but burst out laughing when I saw this

https://youtu.be/_dFzke6mn0M?t=5302

LOL. An actual Mike Postle quote: "It's so easy when you can see the cards"

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10-02-2019 , 03:11 PM

#1186

js84

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 34

Quote:

Originally Posted by sirswish6

completely disagree, his sizings are too brilliant, at worst he is a slightly above average player

Absolutely. As Joey Ingram pointed out on his livestreams, Postle sizes to get the action he wants. Bets small to get a call from worse or to induce a bluff. Betting big when his opponents have a hand to call with. Not bluffing when his opponents are likely to call. He also uses his maniac image to get people to call light. His timing and sizing show a knowledge of poker - it's not simply bet when ahead, fold when behind, bluff when they're weak.

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10-02-2019 , 03:13 PM

#1187

Oconee72

centurion

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 153

Given what's known now, here's a pretty hilarious Postle hand breakdown by Jonathan Little:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hPmOpd_wBs

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10-02-2019 , 03:13 PM

#1188

bc11816

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 388

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ten5x

Quote:

Originally Posted by Primedirective@

If Phil Hellmuth was at this table, this thread would not exist...pissed and on a heater is not proof of cheating... where is the proof????

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yeah, but your crazy unpredictble friend is a losing or a brakeven player right? Mike is the biggest crusher of all time according to his stats. There is just no doubt that he is cheating, i am not sure how that is even debatable after seeing all those hands there is like 3 or 4 spots that are 100% proof that he is cheating and many other that can be considered justifiable but not really as we know whats going on. LOL in his defence he posts a hand where he loses a 120$ pot, that is his defence.

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10-02-2019 , 03:14 PM

#1189

alecspade

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,716

Quote:

Originally Posted by js84

Normally I don't enter myself into these sort of things, and I don't have any sort of social media to post this on, but this one bothered me. I have several friends that have played (and lost) on Stones in Postle games. I hadn't watched many Stones live streams before this - the few I watched were when a friend was playing. I had heard the jokes/rumors about Postle, but I always just brushed them off as he was just some whale/maniac/luck box. I had no idea how often he won big until this.

The chart below is work from me (2019) and a friend (who did the 2018 totals at the bottom). The bottom line?

+$253,300 in 277 hours of play, winning in 62/69 sessions. This was over roughly a year of streams (not sure exactly where they started in 2018).

https://ibb.co/kmVwv8t
Sorry, it wouldn't load the picture in the forum properly.

This does not include any mixed games, sit-n-gos, tournaments, etc. There is a possibility I missed a stream or two - if I did it was certainly not intentional.

How did we do this? I won't speak for my friend, but I think we used a similar strategy. Essentially I would open a stream, see if Postle was playing, and look for his earliest listed/visible chip stack. That is his buy-in column. From there, I would fast forward a few minutes at a time.

Any time Postle was in a hand, or his chip stack deviated more than a few hundred dollars, I would look to see why. Sometimes he would win pots. Sometimes he would lose. Sometimes he would add-on - these add-ons were the hardest part, as the camera didn't always show when the chip runner delivering the chips. The match-the-stack element of the game allowed the game to become big quickly. Looking for swings in chip stacks - either Postle's or another players - was reason to look deeper.

In some cases (like the 1/12/2019 game, the one Joey Ingram was livestreaming and commenting on last night) Postle has such a huge chip lead, it was easy to just skip ahead in the stream and watch his chip stack grow. He couldn't add-on (no need to, and he was the stack), and no one was attempting to match him. His chip stack would just keep climbing.

Some streams (like the one above) didn't take long for the reasons I mentioned above - maybe 15 minutes. Others took longer since he was up and down in chips, he added on, or his chip stack jumped but no obvious pot won was found. This was simply a task of looking for deviations in chip stacks and seeing if it was from winning/losing or from something else. After getting the hang of it a few streams in, the process was usually very quick.

Discrepancies: Is this 100% accurate? No, I know this isn't 100% correct. Am I confident it's 95% accurate? Yes. Many streams there was little doubt what was going on. He would buy-in for an amount, win some pots with no major loses, and his final streamed chip stack was recorded. Not much room for error in at least half of these streams, probably more like 2/3 of all streams.

Hours played: This is a rough guess, but I imagine it is still fairly accurate. Basically if the YouTube stream was 4:XX, I listed it as a 4 hour session. Stones has anywhere from 0-20 minute intro, as well as a several minute marbles outro. So a 4:05 stream is probably something like 3:30-3:45, while a 4:55 stream is more like 4:25-4:40. I figure this averaged out in the long run. If you want to give him the benefit of the doubt, add a half hour for each session, but I imagine 277 hours played is pretty close to reality.

Blind Structure: This may be off. I generally used whatever the stream listed. I don't think this is super important because the 1/2/3 (listed as 1/3) usually played more like a 5/5, plus the match-the-stack element of the game made most of them play big. Once I entered this I generally ignored it, so I imagine it's not 100%.

There are several sessions in which strange things happened with the chip stacks (some highlighted in yellow, I started doing this closer to the end of this project). Basically, something odd happened and I never knew 100% what was going on. This could be inconsistent chip counts on screen, money being added-on but not caught on stream, or something like that. A few cases, he would stack a player whose chip stack was listed at $1,000, but the stack on the table was clearly more by several hundred. In these cases, if I was unsure, I always made these out to be chip add-ons. I ALWAYS ERRED ON THE HIGH SIDE, the side that looks better for Postle. If anything, I think his total buy-ins are less than what I have listed. But if you want to give him more benefit of the doubt, add $10-15k to his buy-ins (as well as 30 hours to his play time).

Take this information however you want to. I'm just adding information for those out there looking, and I know people have asked/guessed to his winnings over the past year or so. I'll try to read and answer questions people have.

I am adding my side to it as the one who performed the audit for 2018 results. The method I used was through Twitch as in almost all streams the !cashwin command was entered to display wins/losses for each player (with I believe one exception). I also did not include any results that were not NL and accounted for add-ons, however the !cashwin command only takes into account the actual winnings from hands, so chip count is irrelevant.

2/21/18
Stakes: 1/3
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $812
Stack at LH: $3k
Win/loss: +2.2K

4/19/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 3 hrs
Stack at FH: 2.2k
Stack at LH: 1.6k
Win/loss: -$600

5/23/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $960
Stack at LH: 2.3k
Win/loss: +1.4k

6/22/18
Stakes: 5/5/10
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $2k
Stack at LH: 1.4k
Win/loss: -3.5k

7/18/18
Stakes: 1/3
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $900
Stack at LH: 2.5k
Win/loss: $1.3k

7/30/18
Stakes: 1/2/3
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $500
Stack at LH: $4.3k
Win/loss: +2.5k

8/1/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $1.6k
Stack at LH: $3.4k
Win/loss: +2k

8/3/18
Stakes: 5/5/10
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $3.6k
Stack at LH: $7.8k
Win/loss: [not shown]

8/6/18
Stakes: 1/3
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $1k
Stack at LH: $3.3k
Win/loss: +2.3k

8/15/18
Stakes: 1/3
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $500
Stack at LH: $2.9k
Win/loss: $2.1k

8/22/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $1.3k
Stack at LH: $5.2k
Win/loss: +4k

8/29/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $1k
Stack at LH: $5.2k
Win/loss: +2.6k

9/5/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $1.2k
Stack at LH: $6k
Win/loss: $2.8k

9/12/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $1.8k
Stack at LH: $2.3k
Win/loss:+$500

9/15/18
Stakes: 1/3
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $700
Stack at LH: 6.1k
Win/loss: +$3.1k

9\24\18
Stakes: 1/2/3
Length of stream: 3 hrs
Stack at FH: $775
Stack at LH: 5k
Win/loss: +2.1k

9/26/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $3.7k
Stack at LH: $5.6k
Win/loss: +2.7k

10/10/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $1k
Stack at LH: $3.9k
Win/loss: +$500

10/17/18
Stakes: 1/3
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $1.7k
Stack at LH: $5.2k
Win/loss: $3.3k

10/19/18
Stakes: 5/10
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $3.6k
Stack at LH: $7k
Win/loss: $3.4k

10/20/18
Stakes: 1/3
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $580 (in for 2.9k)
Stack at LH: $3.6k
Win/loss:+$700

10/24/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $1k
Stack at LH: $7k
Win/loss: $6k

10/29/18
Stakes: 1/2/3
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $1100
Stack at LH: $4.6k
Win/loss: $1.3k

11/7/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $2.2k
Stack at LH: $6k
Win/loss: +3.6k

11/21
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $1k
Stack at LH: $9.2k
Win/loss: $7.2k

11/28
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $1k
Stack at LH: $6.2k
Win/loss: $5.2k

12/5/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $1k
Stack at LH: $8.1k
Win/loss: $$7k

12/12/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $800
Stack at LH: $5.9k
Win/loss: $4.7k

12/15/18
Stakes: 1/3
Length of stream: 4 hrs
Stack at FH: $800
Stack at LH: $11.7k
Win/loss: $8.9k

12/17/18
Stakes: 1/2/3
Length of stream: 3 hrs
Stack at FH: $700
Stack at LH: $8.7k
Win/loss: $6k
Added $2k

12/26/18
Stakes: 5/5
Length of stream: 3 hrs
Stack at FH: $700
Stack at LH: $8.7k
Win/loss: $6k
Added $2k

Quote

10-02-2019 , 03:14 PM

#1190

mamelas

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 284

Quote:

Originally Posted by Primedirective@

If Phil Hellmuth was at this table, this thread would not exist...pissed and on a heater is not proof of cheating... where is the proof????

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1. The former whistleblowing employee. What is his proof?
2. If he is innocent and wants to clear his name then he should release his phone and whatever pc(s) used for streaming to someone knowledgeable and reputable here for testing.
3. Money transfers/bank statements from him. If they were splitting money then you would think at some point there could be an electronic trail, unless it is all done in cash, in which case:
3. Any camera evidence of him physically chopping the money up after sessions or any other hour.

If he wants to prove his innocence, which at this point would seem the prudent thing for himself and the casino, then these things can be done. If he doesn't then he can say IDGAF piss off, you guys suck and how will we know the better? Other than the thousands of "perfectly" played hands? All evidence points to cheating so let's see what evidence does or doesn't support that

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10-02-2019 , 03:14 PM

#1191

Grind On My Mind

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 326

When he looks down on his phone he does it in a slow methodical manner. He goes to double peel his hole cards in middle of hands and its always a 3 second head down. When i watched some streams when he was in seat 1 you could tell his phone is discretely hidden almost completely under the table. There are times when you can see something on his phone, and that should be investigated further/zoom in on the video.

Again the smoking gun here may be to zoom in and detect what the hell he is doing on his phone. Hopefully there is one camera angle we can find.

Also, i find it extremely odd he always looks over his shoulder when someone walks behind him.

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10-02-2019 , 03:14 PM

#1192

PenelopeCruz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 9,365

does it really take a poker genius to size bets when you know your opponents exact holding?

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10-02-2019 , 03:16 PM

#1193

Gman109

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 20

I love how some Postle defenders are saying that it's a bunch of old washed up former poker players who are jealous and complaining. We'll see what Doug Polk has to say - no way he qualifies as the above, having won one of the biggest tournaments in poker last year and being beyond a well respected pro with current talent and abilities.

In fact I'll put Doug in rusty (he's been taking time off from poker for the last year or more) against Postle HU for $100k USD right now, and can have the money otw in an hour, if Postle or his brother or whoever posting here wants to tell Mike Postle that. If Doug wants to play, I'll put up the $ - how about it Postle, statistically you're a god and you claim to have this mad talent for reads. How about you prove it 1v1 against a guy who hasn't played in a year.

Also - I love how some Postle defender resorts to criticizing grammar (a your instead of you're error), and then doesn't bother ending his critical sentence with a period, an obvious punctuation error. Idiot.

PM me anytime.

Quote

10-02-2019 , 03:16 PM

#1194

Primedirective@

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 83

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gorre187

Don't know him,dont want to know him, but l will say , that some poker making history comments are being made on this thread and God help us all if he did cheat!!! OBW, stand for yourself and do not quote other people without their permission... sounds like if he told you to put your hand in a fire,you would

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Quote

10-02-2019 , 03:16 PM

#1195

lovedaphils

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 516

Quote:

Originally Posted by persianpunisher

What would everyone consider an appropriate response if you were accused of cheating on stream, and you didn’t?

Complete silence, show up at the next live stream, continue to crush.

Quote

10-02-2019 , 03:17 PM

#1196

SuitedJunk

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 2,682

Has anyone played in the Stones Live Game? How does their RFID work? On other games I see players need to have the cards separate sitting in two squares, but I'm not seeing that for the players here.

I do notice he keeps his left hand under the table a lot, but not all the time. Always wears a hat. Rarely is looking at other players mostly looks to the center of the table.

I can't tell in the video if he has an in ear at all. They make them very small now so that is a possibility even two years ago they had very small wireless ear pieces.

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10-02-2019 , 03:21 PM

#1197

R*R

I wish I was Einstein

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 12,753

So much great work by Joey and others and so much information in this thread. This statistical stuff and hand analysis is really good. I think the body language and looking in his lap stuff is also very important. This hand really bothers me and looks very suspicious at 4:12:35.

Quote:

Originally Posted by exoendo

link to 77 hand pls?

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerDoom

https://youtu.be/-AADIsPTsxc?t=14970

Quote:

Originally Posted by GamblinRick

but it's clear that he's looking too far down to actually be looking at his hole cards, he's staring at his lap while he pretends to peek at his cards. It's just so blatant and obvious.

I agree 100% with the following and I think the poker community might be able to see some real justice if the allegations prove true. Unlike the UB and Absolute superuser crime this has taken place within the USA and there are no jurisdictional issues, disinterested, powerless, biased authorities, and other issues that prevented prosecution of the cheats.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

Honestly law enforcement needs to be involved at this point, gaming regulators should be involved etc

I feel for you The Wolf in the above hand and all the others that may have been cheated. You and all others that played in his games need to band together and get something done. You would have significant support!

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10-02-2019 , 03:21 PM

#1198

redirkulous

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 5,454

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gorre187

iF js84s numbers are correct just use variance calculator to show its next to impossible.. That should be more than enough even for a court. Lets say 4 dead bodies where found with sperm all over them. And the DNA Test says its Mike''s . The DNA Test being wrong is more likely than him not cheating

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10-02-2019 , 03:21 PM

#1199

zizek

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,177

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BD-

LOL. An actual Mike Postle quote: "It's so easy when you can see the cards"

Well I'm certain that soundbite will find it's way into Doug's video now.

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10-02-2019 , 03:23 PM

#1200

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oconee72

Given what's known now, here's a pretty hilarious Postle hand breakdown by Jonathan Little:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hPmOpd_wBs

Wow, we're literally just watching Postle steal from this guy on a live poker program. I'm sure when Postle is thinking he's just trying to think: should I steal it on the flop, or on the turn, or on the river. His choice to steal it on the river netted him the maximum in this spot.

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