Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuma
It's been a thousand posts. Given this thread has the merit of catching a famous serial killer, with an additional 9/11 conspiracy vibe, the casuals demand some mother ****ing cliffs notes.
Summary thus far:
Thesis - Mike Postle was using technology and/or a partner or partners to gain access to opponents hole cards in real time.
Evidence -
HANDS PLAYED IN A VACUUM - At this point there are too many hands to count in which Postle played his hands perfectly or close to perfectly given his opponents exact holdings. Many of these plays have been analyzed by individuals in this thread, Joey Ingram and others on Youtube, and by high level pros such as Matt Berkey, Scott Seiver, and Haralobos Voulgaris. All of the above mentioned pros and the vast majority of individuals in this thread have concluded that his play style strongly suggests he has access to his opponents hole cards,
HANDS PLAYED INCONSISTENTLY - This is related to point one, but should be made separately as it is important to note that not only is he playing these hands optimally in a vacuum against opponents specific cards, but that in doing so it led to him taking wildly different lines in similar spots across different sessions. Although his lines differed considerably when he faced similar spots, he was nearly 100% accurate with his decisions, particularly on the river.
POSTURE DURING HANDS - THE CROTCH ARGUMENT - The above two lines of evidence have been rebutted by Postle supporters and Postle himself on his Twitter by arguing that he has an ability to read players that allows him to play a high VPIP style and consistently make correct decisions based on his live reads. This argument becomes problematic when reviewing the film. Postle has a very consistent posture present throughout most hands in which he is simply staring straight down into his crotch, barely paying attention to the other player. This is an odd posture to begin with, but when you consider that he actually has a phone in his left hand that is in his crotch, it becomes clear that he is actually staring at his phone. Why would he just stare down at his phone in the middle of a hand? Postle himself addressed this briefly in a tweet talking about how he and others would watch the stream on their phones. When taken together with all of the other evidence, many believe he was using his phone to gain access to opponents hole cards. It should also be noted here with posture that he consistently sits close to the table, keeps his left arm under the table holding his phone even when gathering chips many times. He is very careful not to let anyone see his phone. Perhaps the most damning problem with his posture on film is that it serves to rebut Postle’s argument that he is live reading his opponents. He is barely looking at them, while mostly staring down at his phone.
HIS RESULTS - I don’t know that anyone has actually compiled his overall VPIP or any other stats aside from winnings, but the winnings are insane. They were posted by Joey on his Twitter last night. I’ll summarize here. These numbers are from 2018. +93.2k overall in 21 sessions. Joey does note he had two losing sessions. Playing ⅓ he logged 52 hours over 13 sessions and profited 36.12k for a nearly $700/hr winrate. He played 13 sessions at that level and never lost once. At 5/5 he played 64 hours over 16 sessions and profited 56.8k for an almost $890/hr winrate. He had one losing session out of 16. So out of 29 sessions total at these levels he had one losing session and profited 93k for a total winrate of $800/hr.
RFID WEIRDNESS - CHANGING POSTLE’S CARDS - There are multiple instances of hands where somehow Postle and/or Stones claims that Postle had different cards than what was shown on stream. One point of view is that these changes were fabricated to make Postle’s play seem less suspicious. Arguments from Postle and supporters state that RFID errors occur frequently on the Stones stream. This topic is still up in the air as there have been multiple posters in this thread that have indicated that they played on the stream and can verify that their holecards were wrong in certain hands. Further, there is a screenshot of a hand where the Jd is in Postle’s hand and also on the board, providing clear evidence of some kind of error.
POSTLE ONLY PLAYS IN THE STREAMED GAMES - This issue is also a bit murky as posts have come in indicating both ways, but some have stated that Postle racks up after the stream ends and does not play off stream or does so rarely. Others have come in to state they have played with Postle for years and that he does play off stream and there was even a claim that he was a good online player back in the day. I don’t know that any conclusions can be drawn here just yet.
THE BREAK - This is the newest piece of evidence to come to light. According to Veronika’s (original accuser) twitter, Postle took an unusual break during this summer where he played very few streams. This wouldn’t mean much except for the role it plays in one of the biggest questions surrounding this - If he cheated, did he have a partner and, if so, who was it? Many have speculated that the individual in charge of the Stones livestream was involved as he would be someone with access to the realtime RFID feed. It just so happens that this individual left to attend the WSOP during the times where Postle took his break.
CONCLUSION - The vast majority of people who have looked at this evidence have concluded he cheated, most likely by being sent opponents exact hole cards. Most seem to agree he had a partner and did not know what cards would come out on any street. Most favor that he knew exact hole cards rather than just being ahead or behind but some do support the latter theory.
There might be some stuff I missed but this will generally catch you up. Cheers.
