Just curious, how much are you looking to bet?

I've been around gambling long enough to know guys like Mikey_D have no money and if they did they wouldn't gamble on it. I don't recognize your screen name- what was yours when you invested in me? Or is that just false?

That said with this bet over 90% of the amount wagered has been against friends- there's no ball deflating, no shooting from 10 feet, no underhand shooting, no hustling about my current form.

If I wanted to rob people I'd be able to get a lot more than I could off of this challenge. Hell just yesterday Bill Perkins asked me to take 300k from him to be his escrow for a bet and I didn't accept the money. And what sane thief would tweet about such a large financial loss in the midst of their crime?

ArtyMcfly pretty accurately hit the nail on the head regarding my motivations- Aaron put up that video and a bunch of people laughed at my form. When you're a noob at the gym it isn't the strong guy who laughs at you- it's the person slightly less mediocre than yourself who is insecure about their own strength/physique.

I just wanted to take on this challenge to prove to all these guys whose lives peaked when they warmed the bench on their highschool basketball team that they aren't actually any good at the game and with 9 months of hard work I'll shoot better than they ever did.

And ya if any actual bettors have liquidity concerns of course I'm happy to escrow or just about anyone in the gambling community would hard vouch for me

Good luck with the challenge, Mike!

i would take this bet all day errryday if he could only complete the challenge based on a single attempt. each attempt starts at 0/0 and could restart anytime but always back to 0/0. doing 90/100 while continuingly keeping count isnt a true 90/100

Am I correct in assuming that you think the terms of my bet are that any group of 100 free throws in which I sink 90/100 leads to a win for me?

In actuality as mentioned in this tweet: https://twitter.com/MikeMcDonald89/s...18037757767680

My bet is that I can begin at 0/0 and then must sink 90/100 which I believe is exactly the same bet that you said you would make all day errryday?

GL on the challenge timex!

Here's my advice for the challenge fwiw:

The sooner you stop jumping on attempts the better you will do imo. Try to keep foot, knee, elbow, wrist at a straight line before each attempt. Try to develop some routine before each attempt (3-5 dribbles, spin ball in hand, etc.). Bend knees to 30-45 degrees and develop a smooth straight release.

You're a lock imo to win in 3 months with 2 hours a day of practice.

Surprised there hasn't been more comments about this photo.

It's something I kept asking myself throughout: yes, there are many actual basketball players, even top pros, who struggle from the free throw line during games. But what are their percentages be in the practice gym? And more specifically, what would their percentages be in they attempted a similar challenge as Timex?

Anyway, andyhop's photo sheds quite a bit of light onto that question.

I'm NOT a basketball player (I often joke that I'm the only Asian-American in California willing to say that, too) but I have to think this is as much a mental exercise as it is a physical one. I could envision a scenario of Mike going on a bit of a hot streak, getting to a point where he's something like 52-for-61, then missing two in the next five to end the attempt.

To me, this would be more deflating than anything that could be done to a basketball.

Anyone with motivation is a lock to win it's so annoying just free $ to Mike c'mon guys wtf is wrong with you people

Money doesn't make you mature obviously.

JFC, man...another 400+ words avoiding the one word you should have answered with - NO. No, you don't have any ****ing evidence whatsoever.

How many balls is he allowed to use?

If 1 ball I think hes huge dog.

If 100 balls i think hes huge favorite.

Also, is it wrong that any time I see the OP's handle, I picture Mikey Day from SNL?

Mike, I use to have fantasies about you when you used to be in a lot of the EPT's, im not gay though. Anyway, it's sad to see you have let yourself go a little bit. For the sake of everyone, I hope you get back in shape and back to financial superiority with this bet. Good luck.

Are breaks allowed? Or is there a max time between shots? Fatigue management is a big part of the bet.

The outcome of this bet won't change my financial situation by anything substantial.

I'll mention that I told the largest bettor that I won't bet more than a 6 figure sum on this so action won't get crazy.

I have let myself go to an extent- I've had some difficult life circumstances the last few years. They've been improving the last few months which kind of reignites a fire within me and changes my life outlook, makes me want to get back in shape, restores my faith in humanity, and makes me want to be a better version of myself.

While 2018/2019 were the worst years of my life I think they were the most formative. Some notable years within my life like 2008 and 2014 did very little in terms of shaping who I am as a person but the last couple gave me a much better understanding of myself and the world around me.

Maybe one day I'll write a book on things I've learned but for now I'll just shoot a bunch of free throws and try getting back to my usual self.

Gl Mike, rooting for ya!

Best advice would be to get proper tips and work on form as soon as possible.

Im more curious at what percentage free throw shooter you’d have to be for this bet to be breakeven. I’d guess it’s like 65% if you did 1000 attempts per day each day for the rest of the bet but idk didn’t actually do a distribution. Seems pretty doable but obviously volume dependent.

Also curious what strategy is best because probably not worth continuing if u miss in the first ten shots but probably breakpoints like if I miss 1 before x 2 before y etc I restart

Other people have looked more into this. I just want to focus on what I can control.

If I can shoot 85% I'll win. If I can shoot 75% I'll lose.

Between that I haven't focused on strategy and won't unless I ever shoot well enough that strategy matters.

Function follows form... Try to only use your index finger and middle-finger (and thumb) to throw the ball for a few hundred shots. Then you get a better feeling of how to direct your shots, when doing them the normal way. Get a significant part of the force needed to throw from bending and extending your legs.

I guess you will win the bet. GL

Care to go into more detail? I'm sure many here are curious what your alluding to here. I'm assuming the big hit you mentioned taking recently was on the stock market?

I think a lot of people, esp outside the poker world, would not recommend taking a bet like this if you're just experienced going through some kind of rough patch. Almost seems like you are trying to punish yourself. Not that I think you are an underdog but it's prob going to be torture to do this.

Looking to bet a couple hundred on Timex if anyone is interested in getting a slightly better price than is on shares.

Mike should get a basketball Back Atcha. When you make a free throw the ball comes back to you.

Thank you for your reply and for addressing some of the points and concerns I raised.

Firstly, I will address the things you aimed at me. I have been around professional gambling and professional financial trading a lot longer than you have, approximately three times as long, so I have seen a lot more than you have in these fields and know a lot more about these fields in many of the things relating to them. E.g. I have been a market maker in complex financial derivates, without the use of any software to assist me in pricing, as well as with software assistance later on. I have also done every type of sports betting you can imagine, and in huge volume. I haven't done anywhere near as much as you in poker and I do have a tremendous admiration and respect for what you have achieved in poker and for the great way you have carried yourself during it.

I do have money but I am not going to state my balance sheet on a public forum, as indeed you or no-one has, or ever has.

I did buy a piece of your action a while back in a high roller. I'm not revealing my IRL name ITT and whoever I am it does not affect the fact that all of the points I have made ITT and issues and concerns I have made about your basketball prop bet are legitimate ones and are relevant. Many other people ITT and on Twitter have and are also making legitimate points.

This is all great, because it has helped move things into a position where there is now far more certainty and clarity over the rules concerning the bet, with you definitively stating things that you won't do, e.g. deflating the ball to a non-regulation air pressure.

So myself and many others have done a good and valuable service to those who have bet against you completing the challenge.

None of the things I have said regarding my view of your possible motives for starting the challenge have accused you of robbing people, I have simply stated that the possibility, along with other non robbing possible motives/rationales, exists, and is made more feasible because of the long time frame before settlement (if you lose the bet) and because on Pokershares, one of the places where people can bet against you, the information I have found on the Pokershares web site suggests that client funds and/or your liability to a client are only protected up to an aggregate of €500 per client. The statement in Pokershares' Ts & Cs regarding segregation of client funds is very brief and does not give any detail, the same lack of detail as for most other bookmakers. (bookmaker being the closest term to describe Pokershares, albeit your core products of poker player tournament performances is very different to most other bookmakers' core products)

Building in the assumption (correct me if my assumption is wrong), that you have either some, or a significant, interest financially in Pokershares, you say that 90% of the amount wagered is against friends. Well that's obviously fine as they can assess all aspects of their risk for the bet itself and for possible default, as indeed you can because you will have the same two areas of risk in respect of them paying you if you win, unless both parties escrow, even then the escrow party could default. Wealthy and extremely wealthy people (and/or their businesses) can also go busto, the same as non wealthy people can, and in fact in these current pandemic related uncertain and challenging economic times it is much more likely to happen than in normal conditions.

However, Pokershares are offering up to €1K per client on the bet, and correct me if I am wrong, if a client bets €1K Pokershares holds that money until either you win the bet and it is their's to keep, or until January 1st.

If the above is accurate then the client is taking on a far bigger Pokershares default risk than if they bet on most of your other products which tend to give the client only an overnight or maximum of 2 to 3 days default risk.

You could argue that it is their choice if they want to tie up money for 8 months, but I would suggest that if you want to make the terms of the bet equitable and mitigate the risk to clients of Pokeshares defaulting that you should design a workable method of making the bet a margined based one. This can easily be designed by calculating the required margin at any time as a combination of the amount of time until January 1st ever decreasing, and the current market quote.

The above would make it much fairer for clients, many will have spare margin (spare funds) on account with you anyway, and you would likely do more volume on the bet because clients if they want to can be leveraged if they are only putting up say 25% as margin. You would need I think to give clients a reasonable amount of time to deposit more funds for margin movements (margin calls), e.g. 7 days, before you force liquidate their positions because the market could gap quickly if you post a significant progressing well or significant progressing poorly update practice video, so this would give you some more risk, but one would think/hope that 25% margin (plus profit you are making on the bid ask spread when a position was first opened by a client) would give you enough protection. Naturally, you could set margin higher in the first place or have it in the Ts & Cs that you can increase margin to "x" at your discretion (if you think the market has become more volatile). Clients whose margin is positive can use those surplus funds for other bets on your site.

I think if you adopted a margined bet system for the basketball bet (I am not suggesting doing it for any other products on Pokershares) that it would also be sensible to pre-determine the dates on which you will post an update video, e.g. weekly on the same day and time.

If you do have a margined system you should also in my opinion have a 2 way quote and allow people to bet on you to win, not just on you to lose which is all you are offering at the moment. Doing this would not just allow people to liquidate their positions for a profit or loss, (making you money on the spread each time) but it will also encourage more opening of or adding to of positions.

The current system on Pokershares of the client having to deposit 100% of the bet, so them taking on an 8 month default risk, and having no way to trade out in running, is not a good one IMO.

I appreciate that your Ts & Cs state that client money is segregated, but correct me if I'm wrong, if Pokershares as an entity goes under, clients are only protected up to a maximum of €500 per client, and this is aggregated, so not up to €500 per bet/per position.

The above is likely no better/no worse than most other bookmakers, the vast majority of whom are not licensed and regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or by the Financial Conduct Authority, or by other country equivalents, and therefore are not within such financial regulators' client money protection schemes.

As I mentioned people betting on the core poker and gaming products on Pokershares only have to assume an overnight or very short term default risk. The basketball bet is very different in this respect.

So the three possibilities I said were my view as to why you are doing this bet, and how my view of each has altered after listening to your (his) very recently uploaded podcast with Adam Levitan and having seen your posts ITT.

(In no particular order)

Is it a hustle by you? (you portraying and projecting a much lower skill level than reality)

This appears to now be very unlikely, although still not impossible.

You gave a detailed description of why the challenge/the bet came about, on the podcast and have stated the same ITT.

You are by all accounts a math guy (the term is not an insult, and you are an extremely good and successful math guy), so this does fit in with you (population trend statistically at least) being likely to be average or below average at sports, or you could be good at sports but it hasn't been a focus of yours so far in life.

Are you in some way trying to freeroll people and/or trying to generate 8 months of cashflow?

This in my opinion still can't completely be ruled out because we only have your word for it that you are not. However, there is a lot of circumstantial evidence that your motives for the challenge and the bet are totally honourable. Changing bets on Pokershares for the challenge to a margined system would move my view very close to 100% that the whole thing is totally honourable.

Is this just a regular prop bet involving zero angles/hustles/scams/tricks/cons/hidden motives?

Given the podcast and your posts ITT, I have pushed this category (that it is just a regular prop bet with nothing fishy going on) much higher in probability than 24 hours ago.

The podcast came across as very authentic. Also you have been very willing to respond to all people's questions on Twitter.

What about the chances of you winning the challenge?

Sorry, I still think it will be extremely tough for you to overcome the handicap of your starting level of skill being so far below the kind of 75% free-throw success rate that is the consensus figure you might need to have, before then embarking on a high effort, high volume pursuit of capturing that one crucial long enough lasting run good hot streak.

You have greatly handicapped yourself by doing your own rebounds, both in terms of your likely achievable free-throw accuracy level and in terms of the number of sequence attempts you will have time to do, given that doing your own rebounds will mean each shot takes ~2.25 times as long than if you had rebound help.

Additionally, when you start actively going for 90/100, IMO we will see a curve/a line per session where your form most likely is good at the start, perhaps peaks 15% of the way into the session because you have got your eye in and have built rhythm, then starts to dip gradually, and then goes on a nosedive as you become more and more fatigued.

The curve/line would have been much flatter if you had rebound help.

Do I want you to win the challenge?

Yes definitely. It looks very unlikely that I will be betting against you and even if I do I will not bet large and would take my hat off to you if you win as it is a very tough challenge IMO and I admire you putting yourself out there to do it and your commitment and determination.

What are my tips/observations about the best way to increase your chances of winning?

I know 8 months is a long time, so you do have some time to adjust your strat, but in the podcast you came across as a bit nonchalant, saying that you would be coached by your buddy Aaron and then just see how things go from there and re-evaluate if you need to hire a more specialised coach. This also inferred to me (maybe incorrectly) that you are not initially going to take on board a lot of the coaching advice and other strategy that has been offered on Twitter, ITT and elsewhere.

Not taking on or at least considering all of the advice and strategy I think would be a mistake. I think you should at least look at and try or experiment with a lot of it early on. E.g. someone said do a little occasional practice in very dim (almost darkness lighting conditions), pay attention to wearing a properly fitting very comfortable T-Shirt and various other advice and strategy., of which as you know there has been tons.

I really believe that you will need all the "1%ers" (small extra bits of advantage) that you can possibly get, for you to win.

My one piece of strat I would offer is that I really think you need to work out a system (a type of, or range of shots at the basket) that will increase the chances of the ball returning back to you and decrease its chances of moving far away or resting under or near to the net. A system that doesn't lower your free throw success rate or your skill level ceiling. If you can devise such a system then you will be less fatigued during all your 90/100 attempts so be able to put in more volume as well as not dip in level as much during each session.

Good luck with the challenge and I hope you win and have a lot of fun with it at the same time.

It's a shame that you couldn't find room in that 2,200+ word essay to apologize for creating a thread in which you stated there was a "big being Freerolled risk for backers", relying on little more than your own speculation centered around a Tweet, and later the T&Cs of Pokershares. But I'm sure he'll be ever so appreciative of you using your extensive expertise to reassess the odds of it being a freeroll. Very generous of you, and I'm sure the action will start flowing again now that the marketplace has been reassured by your increased confidence.

This was your solution to a dispute on here last week:

This is not the statement of someone that knows as much as you say you do about gambling.