Can you offer any insight into what you're working on with the coach? Is it more about approach and what makes a good free throw shooter, or is he also working on your shooting technique? Or both?

I did some calculations related to this bet with a friend and we wrote them up in this post: https://chisness.github.io/2020-07-1...bet-evaluation. I'd be happy to get any feedback/requests for additional plots/calcs.

Some TLDR plots:

Probability of success in 1 attempt without resets:


Probability of success in 365 attempts without resets:


When to reset? The rest of the figures assume a fixed 78% make percentage.

Method 1 (binomial):


Method 2 (reinforcement learning):


Value of being in every state when winning = 100 (from method 2):

Very nice to read, cool scientific approach. Thumbs up.

One thing I don't understand of the bet: he has unlimited attempts. So let's say he starts day one, throws 11balls,misses all, so first attempt is already over so the next attempt can start.

But this means that he can have a loooot of attempts every day, right? I mean if he would live for the bet and would just try it every day 16h a day, he will have a loooot of attempts.

I have no idea about basketball, but I guess someone gives him a ball fast so he prob will need 2-5sec for a shot?!

So worst case is he makes 89 shots and then misses 11, uses all of the 100 shots, therefore 100*3sec = 5min. Assuming 16hours a da day that's 16*12 attempts = 192 attempts every day, in the worst case.

I guess he can have 200-400 attempts a day. So his true shoot % can prob be quite low in order to reach that.

Could u simulate for more attempts? Let's say like 20k-100k in 10k intervals.

Thx again for the interesting approach

BTW has the bet yet started? Or is he collecting the bets till end of this year and then starts, meanwhile just practice

He is required to get his own rebounds. Also, I think you're way underestimating fatigue. His realistic attempts per day will be an order of magnitude lower than this.

Bets are booked. Last I heard, he was still accepting more action though.

Yeah if takes 30mins for 100 shots then is 200 shots an hour x 16 3200 shots a day ?

I don’t know if anyone could do that

Even shooting non stop for an hour getting your own boards would be tiring

Yeah I obv didnt count for fatigue, youre right. But still, shouldnt he have a huge amount of attempts over the year then?

So if i understand correctly bet starts next year? Interesting for sure.

Any infos on how much money is already involved? Also how is it going to be controlled. Like, he basically needs to have a video or stream or whatever of everytime hes trying it.

No, the bet is underway

Just watching this on stream now and got to say that it looks like Mike is likely to do it. He got 25 in a row without missing.

88/100 - I think it's only a matter of time.

just shot 89/100

it's basically a stone lock at this point. bettors should be looking to buy out for 95%

Currently 38/42. It could be over in the next 20 minutes.

Almost ESPN interview time.

I dont get it, that's basically 90% and he is only 40% done.

https://www.cardschat.com/news/mike-...rop-bet-93140/

he's getting there.......... i will say that 85 or 87 is still not that close to 90. if you look at misses, that's 30%-50% more misses

grunching.......... i had read an article a few weeks ago... i have some questions:

1) conditions on a shoot counting.. i see it has to be live streamed or something like that......... another person present i assume... what courts can he use? any reasonable courts or is it specfied which ones?

2) does he have to specify "i am starting a new attempt at 90 out of 100"? or does hitting 90 out of any 100 count.............. if it was 100 out of 100, then it's trivial. you just start when you miss. but otherwise, it isn't......... if he must specify, has he communicated what are his thresholds for quitting? i'd say you have to be way ahead of pace halfway through to have a chance at making this. nerves will definitely kick up at end.

3) any restrictions on time allowed? i.e. is there a mental/physical limitation to this?....... probably doesn't want to shoot them too slowly either as there may be practical limitations as to hours per day he can shoot.

thx in advance

agreed.. i would think IRL he'd have to be way ahead of pace 40% of the way to 100 shots........... just basic human psychology

He should never be taking a second shot in a run to 90 if he missed the first shot

In theory he only has to go 89/99 as he is always guaranteed the first shot

If he made 26 in a row once and is a 75-80ish percent shooter then I would only continue when I hit 10/10. Then you would need 80/90, it's only a matter of time then.

Oh boy

How long does it even take to shoot 1000 free throws

Rebounding your own?

15seconds per shot: 4hrs 10min
20seconds per shot: 5.5hrs

Fatigue a huge factor here.

Unsure on his thoughts on charity in general, but I could see this being done for a good cause. Some big company “bets against him”, ie gives him a freeroll. If he gets 900/1000 they donate $X to a charity of his choice ($25K-$50K?) and for every extra one he sinks, they donate an additional $1K (eg if he got 907, they would do an extra $7K). Money might have to be much bigger for him to consider, if he didn’t get any actual bets on it

I think he played in the WPN charity MTT a couple of months ago with Tom Brady etc. Maybe they would do it, or a different site, or a non poker entity

getting paid to shoot hoops is a very good hustle ... A+

I was so-so on the 90 out of 100. But off the top of my head, I think I'd put in a decent wager on 900 out of 1,000 under the same terms and conditions I saw before, assuming everything is verifiable. It doesn't have anything to do with thinking anything about variance. I don't think it scales.

This is worth a re-post since a 1,000 shot sequence is now being discussed.

Anyone want to guess what the world record for most consecutive free throws made in one day is?

That's incredible from a mental standpoint.