Hi KatanaSoul,
From what I grasp (as someone who only covers the regulated/licensed market and has
zero knowledge about the offshore stuff) this would depend on each state's regulatory enforcement framework, how each state defines "illegal gambling," and so forth.
Your questions may best be answered by
(a) reaching out to the offshore sites you mention and/or their collaborators,
(b) maintaining an open line of communication among players who patronize those sites so that you may better gauge what peers are saying about x-service, and
(c) keeping a close eye out for related news in each statewide jurisdiction (as you've been doing).
On the separate topic of bots/prohibited software on regulated U.S. online poker sites... I believe some of your fears are warranted -- but that perhaps your timeline of "2 years" is off? More like 5-10 years? That would be more in-line with feedback from MPN administrator Alex Scott. See his recent appearance on the pokerfuse podcast.
[55:00-59:52]
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...020-a-1760212/
Even as someone who has supported regulating/taxing U.S. online poker for more than a decade, I
can sympathize with your points about how statewide regulations can very much be a
mixed bag. They
do incorporate themselves into frameworks that add legitimacy, formal supervision, and public accountability to lawful operations, but they also increase the "cost of doing business" for operators by rule -- which inevitably gets passed on to consumers because states often rely on taxable revenue from licensees to fund any number of law enforcement/emergency personnel/civic/social programs.
My prediction is that we will continue to see unique regulatory initiatives from each U.S. state that legalizes some form of online gambling. Cross-state compacting will definitely be the way to go for most states that come on board. However, the DOJ's new take on the Wire Act has pretty much ensured even more legal/infrastructure costs for the operators that are seeking statewide licensure. This inevitably results in friction between those who support "regulated" services and those who support "offshore" services.
https://titus.house.gov/press-releas...-online-gaming
"Though the full impact of this reckless DOJ reversal remains to be seen, we can be certain that it will inject uncertainty into a well-regulated market and push consumers back into the black market." Congresswoman Dina Titus (Nevada)
-David