I love such challenges and it's great it is streamed. Good luck to Lynne <3
Nice, a good start is already in the books. But the games are really tough, let's see how it develops.

So because she's a whale and can afford to play on the streamed games she thinks she's good enough to beat 200z? Doesn't really make sense.

Would be funny to see her crush it just for the 2p2 meltdown it will result in

I mean, I think she's screwed, but it would be hilarious if she does it convincingly

From stream she said something along lines of "only other time I played was about two years ago I beat this (200 blitz) for 11bb/100 over 17k hands"


and said she has worked hard her whole career making people think she is as dumb as possible but this is first time shes actually wanted people to think shes trying to be good at poker and felt maybe its not true to herself to act dumb(felt fake something along those lines) / has gotten coaching (didnt specify how much) and that her poker playing friends have always been helpful sending a lot of advice over hhs throughout years etc

From Lynne's link tree:

"My name is Lynne and I like to gamble, read books, and post nudes"

https://linktr.ee/helloitslynne

Congrats to Gazzy for booking this action. She is drawing stone dead.

link to noods or gtfo

.

I'm not so sure about this, smallish sample size, what OMGClayDol said about being able to adjust her variance style of play up or down as the finishing line approaches, historic Tweet apparently condoning cheating; impossible to detect (potential) chip dumping if done cleverly.

On the flip side of this, just watched one of her recent vlogs, and if she's not talking BS in it (manipulating or exaggerating video footage etc) then she's played in some $40K plus pots recently live and recently was sitting with $70K live and was extremely blasé about it, as if it was run of the mill amounts of money, that she didn't mind losing. In other words, if genuine, then she is a whale, or a fairly wealthy fish.

Hard to pin down hard evidence of this being factual in the vlog (re: the $70K pot, or maybe I missed the hard evidence.). The vlog was kind of sus IMO, but I can't put my finger on why exactly, just an instinct I have when someone's whole schtick is "this is the lifestyle I love and want and enjoy.... etc".

Just feels like it's all designed to sell the audience something, maybe short term, or maybe after playing a longer "look at me, this could be you one day", game with them.

Could be totally wrong, maybe she just has loads of money and enjoys vlogging a shallow lifestyle and punting off money and laughing it off as routine stuff.

I'm not saying this is true of Lynn because I know next to nothing about her, but people with inaccurate self-perception who play dumb and don't realize that their illusion is entirely transparent to anyone who knows what they're talking about, are the best lol

RE: Lynn drawing dead - is there no amount of coaching that can help a rec beat this pool in over 1 year's time? In theory, she can spend up to $20k and many months learning before starting the challenge in earnest. She also does not have to bang out 40k hands all at once. She can play one table at time and spread the sessions out. She could also likely practice at 50z for a while before jumping up to 200z. Seems like there is a way that it could be possible, though it would be difficult, laborious, and time-consuming.

That said, her immediate response was to live stream herself multi-tabling ~1k hands at 200z the same day the challenge was announced. Seems like not the best way to go about things, especially since live streaming is going to give up significant amounts of EV (distracting herself, giving out loads of info to opponents).

Edit: My bad - thought she had until 12/31/23 to play the hands. She only has till the end of 2022 which is obviously significantly more difficult.

Lol 40k hands

She has to finish the 40K hands by 12/31/22

Ah my bad, different story for sure. For some reason I thought it was 12/31/23. Guess that wouldn't make much sense though.

It's definitely a tough field. I'm barely breakeven pre-rb over 50k hands. I'd bet against basically any "live pro" to win, but 40k hands is small enough that even a -10 bb/100 loser has a one-outer to win (2.2% with a StdDev of 100 bb/100). A -5 bb/100 loser has a whopping 16% chance of winning.

Take a number. Even I'm not dumb enough to bet you on this.

Interesting. I've heard from respectable regs that stars 200z is a very tough pool, granted this was a few years back. I don't know about "much softer" but I can buy that ACR is tougher now since the rewards program on stars changed to absolute dogshit for grinders.

40k hands is way too small to really determine anything but this is still way more interesting than the Landon/Bally's prop bet. She's an underdog but not drawing dead. Either way she improves her game and gets some good publicity.

Watching her stream right now and I think I can say pretty definitively she is very far from a winning player in this pool. She's a few buy-ins below even now.

Aside from being a pretty weak player, she's asking her twitch chat for advice on things that she could learn from preflop charts. Someone told her that 86s is a BB defend against an UTG RFI and she was genuinely surprised. She's not using a HUD because "she hasn't figured out how to use it." She's making nonsense button-clicking bluffs that are way too small, getting called by an obvious calling hand, then saying she should make a note to not bluff those players again.

Big lol to the guys in her chat giving her specific advice about certain regs. I'd maybe be annoyed about that if she weren't a massively losing player. Someone just told her to learn how to use PIO. This is some high quality entertainment.

The dude in question is a reg who's quite well known in the live scene and has played many hands before on ACR, I assume he was just goofing around for whatever reason.

I chatted with Lynne about it and she had nothing to do with it. Neither me or the other bettors suspect foul play and I think the general questioning of her integrity littered in this thread is unfair.

It's a fun sweat and (with all due respect) she has played much better I thought she would. I still like my side but certainly not a lock. I also think 40k hands is enough hands so that variance doesn't play too much of a part but also doesn't drag the bet on for months and months.

After day 2

Nobody has disputed that she made that Tweet about cheating is okay if you're not in the game long term (or words to that effect).

She appears to be trying to build up her social media presence / following, for what reason I am not sure, but if it is to monetize it, become a paid influencer etc, then winning this challenge isn't just winning the bet, it's good for her brand and for potential sponsorship by a poker site, e.g. ACR.

So you can't rule out cheating IMO.

The evidence so far of her talking, and of her engaging with the chat and the poker dumb stuff she has been saying, does suggest she is not a good player, however, this doesn't mean that she wouldn't get sponsorship, as ACR and other sites have deliberately sponsored weak or average non-winning players based on their personality, or which demographic they are in, or their social media presence.

So rakeback isn’t included, no preflop charts, she only has 3 months to finish, and all the bets are booked at even money? What did she negotiate because the other side got basically everything i would want?

Has she said why she wants to do the challenge? Like there isn’t even enough time to get coaching so it’s not a “training for high stakes live” thing.

Her first stream she said something like she is ok for first time in her career people knowing she wants to be winning at the game / wanted a challenge that she semi cared about but not too much or smthing along those lines while playing a lot

I guess it’s possible she just doesn’t have any meta learning skills, but this is such a goofy way to improve at poker. Compare it to Perkins who hired a coach and studied for 4 months before the challenge even started AND negotiated an insane handicap. Just playing semi regularly for a couple months won’t substantially increase her skill level. Listening to the average OMGBOOBS twitch viewer might make her worse.