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04-10-2017 , 07:21 PM
Yep, I love tourneys and live in Austin, but won't play with this fee structure.
04-10-2017 , 07:45 PM
^Agreed. I did some quick spreadsheet math just to confirm the ridiculousness of the fee structure. I put in some conservative numbers for fees, and a generous 17% cash rate. Just to break even and make $0/hr requires each cash to be worth an average of $922.

04-11-2017 , 10:20 AM
I'm kind of a newb for the analysis of tourney profitability but doesn't the nature of the hourly seat fee weigh differently on a cash versus non-cash scenario? IMO it would make the late-reg/re-buy and maybe bubble/laddering decisions pretty easy. Especially if you planed on playing multiple days and invested in a membership other than the single day (Local room is 10@day, 25@month)

I don't know that the average player in my local games would be able to adjust based on the real data (e.g. playing too tight, adjusting to stack depth), seems like you sell it as +EV with the correct adjustments.
04-11-2017 , 10:53 AM
This is from Plano room website:
We offer:

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em
$2/$5 No Limit Hold'em
$5/$10 No Limit Hold'em
$4/$8 Limit Hold'em
Omaha
Tournaments

Do they ever have 5/10? If it's $9/h it beats casinos rake by far.
Anyone played 5/10 there?

Even for 1/2 PLO 9/h is better than casinos 5+1+1+1+1 or whatever BBJ bs they have.

Anyone played PLO over there?

Thanks!
04-11-2017 , 11:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by marketmaker
Took my first trip out to TCH in Austin this week. I've been all over Austin to play, this place rivaled them all.

They had 4 full tables of 1/2 going, where everyone was playing pretty deep 200BB+ and then one 5/5 PLO table going. They had no problem creating action from open (at 6pm) to close.

I'm still debating if it's the best value though compared to the other places around town.

I'm sure the raked home games are taking more than $5 a pot, but they give out generous bonuses. If you can sit down and get a 10% buy in bonus it's pretty much rake back for 3-4 hours of play. Plus the raked games typically have free food and drink. Texas Card House only had free drink.

$30 a month for a membership and then $10 an hour table charge currently. Anyone have an idea how closely those fees would resemble a deep 1/2 casino game?

I'd say this, you definitely "feel" the cost to play more paying the table wage at cash out. Easier to stomach it if it's raked.

In general, I estimate rake takes about 50% of gross profits for a positive EV player.
They recently added an additional $2.00 **** you in the ass fee. I think it goes toward an AAAKK bad beat jackpot which will never happen.
04-11-2017 , 11:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
I honestly have no clue what you are talking about. Why would I want to be in a tournament where a higher percentage of the money goes to the rake rather than the prize pool? That makes no sense. One is getting charged $30 more for a smaller potential prize pool. From what I see the Texas Card House doesn't even advertise a minimum.
The tournament buy in money is ALL paid out to the players...every penny.

The tournament players also pay $10.00 per hour plus a motel membership payment of $30.00.

This is what the other poster was bitching about.
04-11-2017 , 11:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WharfRat1976
The tournament buy in money is ALL paid out to the players...every penny.

The tournament players also pay $10.00 per hour plus a motel membership payment of $30.00.

This is what the other poster was bitching about.
If it makes you feel better to say it that way but regardless of how it is structured, players are paying a rake. It just happens that the rake is in the form of an hourly fee and membership fees which are REQUIRED to play the tournament. It's pretty obvious this rake is far and above what one typically pays in casino tournaments.
04-11-2017 , 11:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NuklearWinter
^Agreed. I did some quick spreadsheet math just to confirm the ridiculousness of the fee structure. I put in some conservative numbers for fees, and a generous 17% cash rate. Just to break even and make $0/hr requires each cash to be worth an average of $922.

This analysis is spot on in that for the Tuesday $60 rebuy and the Friday $140 bounty, a 3 way chop often ends up in that $900 per man range.

So chopping is a total waste of EV with and equal or bigger chip stack.

Last edited by WharfRat1976; 04-11-2017 at 12:18 PM.
04-11-2017 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pony_law
Shutting down through a raid and getting a conviction in front of 12 people in a jury box are two very separate things. Could a DA get an arrest warrant? Probably, but that is just the first step. The DA then has to go and convince 12 people in a box this places doesn't meet the affirmative defense in the statute. I'm a trial lawyer, I'd feel pretty confident defending any of these places in front of a Jury.
Like it would eve go to trial. The ball smashing they would put on them would force a plea. The money to defend the case would be devastaing.

The part of the statute that states the owner cannot REALIZE ECONOMIC BENEFIT would be hard to defend against.

Last edited by WharfRat1976; 04-11-2017 at 12:15 PM.
04-11-2017 , 12:03 PM
Don't know if anyone posted this but here is a link to Mint Poker in Houton. The newest addition to a seat rake poker club. Rumor has it that Phil Helmuth is a big investor.

http://mintpokerclubs.com
04-11-2017 , 12:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by faxanadu
My elementary math says this guy is probably making a profit of 100-150K/year. Is this typical for small businesses that don't fail?
7 tables now and heavy tournament play. $10 hourly seat rake plus $2 entry fee every time plus $30 per month membo fee. Redo your calcs.

Last edited by WharfRat1976; 04-11-2017 at 12:17 PM.
04-11-2017 , 12:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WharfRat1976
Don't know if anyone posted this but here is a link to Mint Poker in Houton. The newest addition to a seat rake poker club. Rumor has it that Phil Helmuth is a big investor.

http://mintpokerclubs.com
There is a thread about that here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29...ammer-1641464/
04-11-2017 , 12:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
If it makes you feel better to say it that way but regardless of how it is structured, players are paying a rake. It just happens that the rake is in the form of an hourly fee and membership fees which are REQUIRED to play the tournament. It's pretty obvious this rake is far and above what one typically pays in casino tournaments.
100% agree. My comments t was not a dressing the rake issue.
04-11-2017 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NuklearWinter
^Agreed. I did some quick spreadsheet math just to confirm the ridiculousness of the fee structure. I put in some conservative numbers for fees, and a generous 17% cash rate. Just to break even and make $0/hr requires each cash to be worth an average of $922.

NUKE, please check your PM"s.

Last edited by WharfRat1976; 04-11-2017 at 03:35 PM.
04-11-2017 , 10:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WharfRat1976
Like it would eve go to trial. The ball smashing they would put on them would force a plea. The money to defend the case would be devastaing.

The part of the statute that states the owner cannot REALIZE ECONOMIC BENEFIT would be hard to defend against.
There are MANY criminal defense attorneys who play poker and you can bet that the persons running the various establishments have relationships with them. Some of those attorneys would be willing to take the case pro bono and then, after winning the case, have no qualms about claiming the hours when they do their annual update. The Bar LOVES attorneys who do pro bono hours, so there are many who do a case for a friend or friend of a friend.

The issue about economic benefit is going to depend entirely on how the structure of the particular room exists...there are ways to do it in a way to distance the perceived profit that many juries are apt to buy into given that juries hate sitting in the box on a garbage case...

Also, do not discount the fact that many prosecutors are not really that keen themselves on going to a jury on a small potatoes case...and if it is the garden variety misdemeanor charge, it is typically six in the box, not twelve. No spotlight, no real press, no career-advancing verdict...far more apt to see someone getting a 90 or 180 day deferred on a nolo plea that results in no final conviction.
04-12-2017 , 12:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WharfRat1976
Don't know if anyone posted this but here is a link to Mint Poker in Houton. The newest addition to a seat rake poker club. Rumor has it that Phil Helmuth is a big investor.

http://mintpokerclubs.com
wonder how long its gonna take for some A-hole politician to put the kibosh on this while proclaiming he's "looking out for the children" when the real motivation is the belief votes will come pouring in due to his heroic stance on "crime"
04-12-2017 , 04:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by michelle227
There are MANY criminal defense attorneys who play poker and you can bet that the persons running the various establishments have relationships with them. Some of those attorneys would be willing to take the case pro bono and then, after winning the case, have no qualms about claiming the hours when they do their annual update. The Bar LOVES attorneys who do pro bono hours, so there are many who do a case for a friend or friend of a friend.

The issue about economic benefit is going to depend entirely on how the structure of the particular room exists...there are ways to do it in a way to distance the perceived profit that many juries are apt to buy into given that juries hate sitting in the box on a garbage case...

Also, do not discount the fact that many prosecutors are not really that keen themselves on going to a jury on a small potatoes case...and if it is the garden variety misdemeanor charge, it is typically six in the box, not twelve. No spotlight, no real press, no career-advancing verdict...far more apt to see someone getting a 90 or 180 day deferred on a nolo plea that results in no final conviction.
They RICO'D a case against a private room here in Austin years back. Good luck fighting the FED. This did not end up in a nolo plea...it ended up as a ball crushing.

Put as many bible thumping conservatives on the jury panel and let me know if you win that case.

I think your comments are very undersold as to the ability of a state or the FED to bring a case.

A real attorney will avoid any lengthy, time consuming pro bono action.

You would have to do a full Bill Clinton to get around the words "derive economic benefit" in my opinion.

TCH has been running for 2 years now without a hitch. My biggest concern would be something bad happening at the place thus shining a light on it. This has not happened.

Hey, maybe I am all wet. Who knows. I didn't think Trump had any chance to win the WH.

I am a betting man and I would not put 50k of my own money into starting up a time rake room.

I hope nothing happens. I don't think we will see poker legalized in Texas in our lifetime.

Last edited by WharfRat1976; 04-12-2017 at 04:48 AM.
04-12-2017 , 09:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by michelle227
There are MANY criminal defense attorneys who play poker and you can bet that
....they cheat their asses off in those games. The question though is whether they cheat more or less than the personal injury attorneys.
04-12-2017 , 10:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NuklearWinter
^Agreed. I did some quick spreadsheet math just to confirm the ridiculousness of the fee structure. I put in some conservative numbers for fees, and a generous 17% cash rate. Just to break even and make $0/hr requires each cash to be worth an average of $922.

NUKE, if you have time, do a run on a private cash room rake and tips compared to a time rake room.

Assumptions

Private game
10% $6.00 cap rake
Tips- make an assumption

Time rake game
$10.00 per hour
$2.00 entry fee
$30.00 monthly membership fee
No tips

Run it out to 100 hours or whatever you think.

I'm too lazy to do it.
04-12-2017 , 10:08 AM
$6 cap on a private game? Very very nice! That's pretty much Winstar rake.
04-12-2017 , 10:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
$6 cap on a private game? Very very nice! That's pretty much Winstar rake.
So for the analysis we should do a $10 cap?
04-12-2017 , 10:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NuklearWinter
^Agreed. I did some quick spreadsheet math just to confirm the ridiculousness of the fee structure. I put in some conservative numbers for fees, and a generous 17% cash rate. Just to break even and make $0/hr requires each cash to be worth an average of $922.

The EV is even worse. The buy ins and add ons are higher than $100.00.

I would use $150.00+
04-12-2017 , 10:51 AM
I don't play in many home games but I would think the cap should be $15+
04-12-2017 , 11:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
I don't play in many home games but I would think the cap should be $15+
IME, it's $10 up to $2k pot, $15 over 2k.

Disclaimer: Not that I ever played in private games, just a guess
04-12-2017 , 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WharfRat1976
They RICO'D a case against a private room here in Austin years back. Good luck fighting the FED. This did not end up in a nolo plea...it ended up as a ball crushing.

Put as many bible thumping conservatives on the jury panel and let me know if you win that case.

I think your comments are very undersold as to the ability of a state or the FED to bring a case.
Under State law, gambling is a misdemeanor. Very few cases involving a small room running a few tables are ever going to be picked up by ANY of the AUSA's in Texas. As such, you are back to State-level prosecution.

Even if you presume an effort is made to charge the Engaging in Organized Criminal Activity under Chapter 71 TPC, it is still only a State Jail Felony.

Defense on these sorts of cases is no different, at the most basic level, than the 8-liner prosecutions. The pleadings in those are like most cases...boilerplate that is already saved on the computer.

Where things get dicey is if the books have not been kept in any sort of order and a valid case can be made for money laundering. Those DO become a challenge. Discovery in a money laundering case gets very time-intensive. I have seen the files in some of those charges that ran into several thousand pages of spreadsheets...they are even worse than the State-level medicaid fraud cases (had one of those in a post-conviction matter several years ago).

Quote:
A real attorney will avoid any lengthy, time consuming pro bono action.
Again, most criminal prosecutions are NOT the 'lengthy, time consuming' endeavor you make them out to be. There is file activity on MANY different days, but it is more of a mundane 'go to court and reset the case' repeated many times over. Hell, you can go eight to ten resets without batting an eye when the defendant is out on bond and it is nothing in most jurisdictions to drag a nothing case out across three to five years (remember, the defendant has to invoke Speedy Trial in the beginning and not contribute to the delay in order for that to enter the equation). The longer a case is dragged out, the better it is for the defendant.

Quote:
I am a betting man and I would not put 50k of my own money into starting up a time rake room.
I would not be inclined to invest but it has nothing to do with risk of prosecution...rather it is an inherent distrust of loaning money to ANYONE connected with poker.

Quote:
I hope nothing happens. I don't think we will see poker legalized in Texas in our lifetime.
Difficult to say...the House just moved a Daily Fantasy Sports bill out of Committee yesterday. If that passes, it is another stepping stone...and carries the built-in argument in favor of skill-based games (you know, like poker).

      
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