so the consensus is that his losses/breakeven are down to running bad?

it has nothing to do with the fact that games are tougher and his predictable nit/TAG style can only derive a profit from the fish?

he's been winning at a mediocre winrate for ages and thus expects it to continue. when it doesn't, he throws his piss-covered toys out of the pram.

FYP

i have already been slowrolling leatherass this year....

idk where u guys have been

im 100% slowrolling leatherass

I can't wait until LA starts playing Omhahahahaha.

His public complaints probably aren't warranted given his $1M year, but according to him he has an all-in EV chart that shows him down significantly. I haven't seen it, but as a professional poker player, if at the end of the year you are +$1M, but your EV chart says you should be up say $1.2M, i certainly could find cause to complain.

this is ******ed

the like 3 times i've played with him he ran super hot vs me. and stacked me hitting flush draws, sets, etc. luckily i have the same mental coach as him and it didn't phase me =).

lol

I changed my view after reading this blog entry. The instructors at CR should talk to each other.

http://blogs.cardrunners.com/interne...ore-1232943829

The only problem is that's twice as whiny as LA but three times as veiled. And probably four times as absurd and verbose.


(p.s. srsly that thing tilted me more even than the LA one when I read it earlier today, and the LA is pretty disgusting from a practical and objective viewpoint)

this is awesome i needed motivation to play more poker and play seriously below 25/50. Slowrolling leatherass is highly motivating...yay!

I've played less than 1.5k hands with him and he got me with this

Poker Stars $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 25148
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

djeepy (MP2): $1509.50
actionDJ (CO): $1244.00
morello05 (BTN): $1000.00
AvesUIUC (SB): $1174.00
cyberpeogh (BB): $870.00
Leatherass9 (UTG): $1000.00
JayPez (UTG+1): $1000.00
Hero (MP1): $1233.00

Pre Flop: ($15.00) Hero is MP1 with T T
Leatherass9 raises to $35, 1 fold, Hero calls $35, 2 folds, morello05 calls $35, AvesUIUC calls $30, 1 fold

Flop: ($150.00) T 2 A (4 players)
AvesUIUC checks, Leatherass9 bets $99, Hero calls $99, morello05 folds, AvesUIUC folds

Turn: ($348.00) 9 (2 players)
Leatherass9 bets $200, Hero calls $200

River: ($748.00) J (2 players)
Leatherass9 bets $666 all in, Hero calls $666

Final Pot: $2080.00
Leatherass9 shows A A (three of a kind, Aces)
Hero mucks T T
Leatherass9 wins $2077.00
(Rake: $3.00)

/end rant, but I think he is your typical poker luck whiner

/golf clap

Looks like he is running horrible imo...


How can anyone with this graph think he is running bad for months???
I wonder when tatta will show up and complains about his sick swings

I think he should probably keep these types of posts/comments to his poker friends, peopple close to him, etc. Posting this on a board where there are tons of NL25 NL50 players scraping to make a few hundred bucks will not get you sympathy for runnign under expectation when you've put away well over a MILLION during the year, and people clearly will not take it like he wants them to take it. (and understandably so)

this point of view is very ******ed, especially for HU Poker against fish. The reason is you can not say because ur allin-ev is +200K$ that you should have won 200K more.

Just imagine u only play a fish which only has 100BB in his account. He buys in with 100BB vs you and wins the first hand (preflop allin) with KK vs AA. Your EV is +80, but your actual winnings are -100.
Next Hand you rebuy for 200bb and you get the money in when the fish is drawing dead. Your EV in that hand is +200 and your actual winnings are +200.

So alltogether your actual winnings are +100, but your EV says you should be up +280. But because the fish never even had more than 100BB in his account it is not possible.

The conclusion "my all-ev is positive - I should have won more money" is flawed. The only conclusion you can draw is that you ran bad in allin-pots.

From the blog post:
Have you calculated the EV of doing this? Also, I believe the correct term is "running under expectation".

It's kind of like a millionaire who gets jumped and his wallet with several thousand in it and $50k sports car is stolen, so he goes to the local homeless shelter to share his grief with people. Could pick a better audience for that, like fellow high stakes poker players who understand the feeling and can empathize, as opposed to people who see the total he makes and don't want to listen to somebody with that much money complain about anything.

really? i thought it was a good blog

Full Tilt Poker Game #10362392714: Table Rye (deep 6) - $5/$10 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:17:29 ET - 2009/01/31
Seat 1: Leatherass9 ($1,513)
Seat 2: Pigiama81 ($500)
Seat 3: LOLOLOLOLOL ($1,430)
Seat 4: Chat Off ($1,000)
Seat 5: DrGiggy ($2,281.50)
Seat 6: mypkrtime ($1,242)
mypkrtime posts the small blind of $5
Leatherass9 posts the big blind of $10
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DrGiggy [Qs Qd]
LOLOLOLOLOL raises to $30
Chat Off calls $30
DrGiggy raises to $115
mypkrtime folds
Leatherass9 has 15 seconds left to act
Leatherass9 raises to $255
LOLOLOLOLOL folds
Chat Off is sitting out
Chat Off folds
DrGiggy has 15 seconds left to act
DrGiggy calls $140
*** FLOP *** [Th 7c 3h]
Chat Off stands up
Leatherass9 checks
DrGiggy has 15 seconds left to act
DrGiggy bets $280
Leatherass9 raises to $1,258, and is all in
DrGiggy calls $978
Leatherass9 shows [9h 6d]
DrGiggy shows [Qs Qd]
*** TURN *** [Th 7c 3h] [Qh]
*** RIVER *** [Th 7c 3h Qh] [3d]
Leatherass9 shows a pair of Threes
DrGiggy shows a full house, Queens full of Threes
DrGiggy wins the pot ($3,088) with a full house, Queens full of Threes
Leatherass9 adds $1,000
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $3,091 | Rake $3
Board: [Th 7c 3h Qh 3d]
Seat 1: Leatherass9 (big blind) showed [9h 6d] and lost with a pair of Threes
Seat 2: Pigiama81 is sitting out
Seat 3: LOLOLOLOLOL folded before the Flop
Seat 4: Chat Off folded before the Flop
Seat 5: DrGiggy (button) showed [Qs Qd] and won ($3,088) with a full house, Queens full of Threes
Seat 6: mypkrtime (small blind) folded before the Flop

Full Tilt Poker Game #10364062212: Table Orr (deep 6) - $5/$10 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:00:07 ET - 2009/01/31
Seat 1: pmilanov ($2,000)
Seat 2: Jedi AllStar ($3,958.50)
Seat 3: Spike95 ($696)
Seat 4: Leatherass9 ($1,000)
Seat 5: TehWetBandit ($3,241)
Seat 6: I Win Flips ($3,143)
pmilanov posts the small blind of $5
Jedi AllStar posts the big blind of $10
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to I Win Flips [Ac Ad]
Spike95 has 15 seconds left to act
Spike95 folds
Leatherass9 raises to $35
TehWetBandit folds
I Win Flips raises to $120
pmilanov adds $5
pmilanov folds
Jedi AllStar folds
Leatherass9 raises to $255
I Win Flips has 15 seconds left to act
I Win Flips has requested TIME
I Win Flips raises to $999
Leatherass9 raises to $1,000, and is all in
I Win Flips has 15 seconds left to act
I Win Flips has requested TIME
Leatherass9: nice aa @@!
I Win Flips calls $1
Leatherass9 shows [Kd Ks]
I Win Flips shows [Ac Ad]
*** FLOP *** [7d Qs 8h]
*** TURN *** [7d Qs 8h] [9s]
*** RIVER *** [7d Qs 8h 9s] [7h]
Leatherass9 shows two pair, Kings and Sevens
I Win Flips shows two pair, Aces and Sevens
I Win Flips wins the pot ($2,012) with two pair, Aces and Sevens
Leatherass9 adds $1,000
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $2,015 | Rake $3
Board: [7d Qs 8h 9s 7h]
Seat 1: pmilanov (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: Jedi AllStar (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: Spike95 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: Leatherass9 showed [Kd Ks] and lost with two pair, Kings and Sevens
Seat 5: TehWetBandit didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: I Win Flips (button) showed [Ac Ad] and won ($2,012) with two pair, Aces and Sevens

LOL ^^ hand history. I am seriously rooting against leatherass now. I really hope he goes busto. Am I alone in my thinking?

i think rooting for anyone to go broke is just bad morally. i dont like him but i wouldnt wish badly upon him.

This is a prime example of what making videos does. Some of the opposition watches players' videos and play against them better.

LA is very likely not running poorly, and very likely playing very well. Problem is a lot of the regs he used to make money off are now probably break even against him due to watching LA videos. Also LA is likely off on his evaluation of how he's running in the first place. That's very easy to do, and should actually be assumed without tons of analysis of data explaining why