Quote:
Originally Posted by TheTyman9
Landon at some point mentioned after losing a bunch of money in live cash thinking he'd be in makeup for a long time grinding back out of it at lower stakes. But then went on some tourney heat to clear it quickly. It's not like he can just go bust a handful of 5k's and 10k's, drop 200k and then go off on his own. It's basically a makeup deal unless there's terms we don't know about.
If he's making less money over the life of the deal than he otherwise would have than it actually sets him up to be backed longer. He can learn bankroll management in any other deal or playing on his own (and assumedly already understood bankroll mgmt before the deal).
So for example let's assume he's going to be playing mostly 2knl to start on this deal. He can't afford those games so he takes this backing deal. Let's assume he has a 3bb/100 winrate in these games. So $60 for every 100 hands played of which he keeps $18. So he's making $18/100 hands on avg under this deal where he gets to play bigger than he otherwise would be able to to start off. Then let's assume his other option is to grind mostly 500nl to start. If he took a mediocre 50/50 backing deal and has a 6bb/100 winrate he'd be making $15/100 hands. If he can bankroll himself at 500nl, which he should be able to he's all the way up to $30/100 hands. And because the opponents are less good and the number of games available more plentiful he can probably play more hands per hour, making it an even better situation. Then as he's crushing 500nl he can still shot take bigger games on his own and get 100% of the upside or if he wants to mitigate risk can sell to bigger things individually based on how aggressive he wants to be with his roll. I definitely would be interested if you can give a quick example of how this deal could be good for him. Because without it including tons of really good coaching or including access to soft live private games I don't see how the numbers ever work out on his favor.
Sure - not disputing anything you're saying on the numbers but r.e the Make Up part, Berkey on the podcast specifically said the deal was not a make-up deal, it was like investing capital into a start up business (Landon's Poker Bankroll) so the deal doesn't come with an obligation for them to give him another $200k and he continue to grind it out needing to be at $400k before he made money.
I'm not sure why this would = Landon being "allowed" to blast off 200k playing 5ks - it's a good opportunity for him to do it properly. I think your assumptions regarding his winrate at 10/20, 500z and bankroll before this is probably incorrect though - most likely he didn't have any proper bankroll for anything and no completely rock solid track record on any stakes (this isn't a dig at Landon at all, this is just how most of these deals commence) most likely he was a good personable kid who showed some promise and they decided to take a bit of a punt and invest in him. Giving 50/50 and wedging him in make-up for ages if it goes wrong no use to anyone so structure a deal like this. Much, much better.
I agree it does set him up to be backed slightly longer, when he's +$300k he's essentially had 50% of the upside and now gets 70% - at this stage he'd have $150k invested in his $500k poker bankroll (30%) but he gets 70% of the action, which is essentially "easing" himself into the world of playing on his own, I'd like to see levels above tbh where he gets 80%/20% before he ultimately cashes his share of the bankroll and goes solo
If like you are saying though, that it comes with a make-up commitment and Landon had a provable 3bb/100 winrate at 10 20 nl and 6bb/100 at zoom alongside a workable bankroll of his own, then I would completely agree with you, it's not that great.