no, niki is only slightly ahead of KQJ9. that being said, he's only slightly behind a completely bare JT, but PA is unlikely to have a completely bare JT with the line he took. for 300bb, bare JT is nowhere near strong enough to be pumping the pot this big on the flop. he'd be much more likely to take a line like bet/call flop c/r a blank turn or c/c flop c/r a blank turn, etc. his range is weighted strongly toward sets i think, since a hand like JT + extra outs would often be something like JTQK, AKJT, 89JT, QJT9 which are extremely likely to 3-bet preflop unless they're completely rainbow - the same goes for an unpaired or single paired wrap. against a bare JT, niki's hand actually has 45% which isn't bad at all, but against a set his equity is a lot worse, and his line isn't really indicative of bare JT.

he also would be very unlikely to bet/3-bet an easily dominated wrap like Q98 this deep. KQ98 does make sense though, which is a 50/50 against AAQ8.

okay.. once Niki calls flop should PA check/fold turn? thanks for your analysis btw.. very informative

i love u

Of open enders Q9xx got there but Niki doesn't necessarily have that, he could still have some KQTx kind of hand that now has a an open ender to the nuts. Also PA has the same open ender with a Q so adding that to his set (which obv has the full house redraws) makes it an easy follow-up pot-sized bet as the eff. stacks are only slightly bigger than the turn pot size. Checking and thus giving a free card against a hand like KQTx would be bad (KT drawing to a higher full house*).

Edit: *) You can add some KJxx combos there, too.

pa should almost certainly check the turn with QJJ because he can't be giving up equity here to a hand like KQ when he he has the Qx straight draw as well. all that betting accomplishes is get niki off of a worse hand that has no outs, get him off a hand that has some chance to split or <20% equity, and gets him stacked by Q9/AQ. checking has to be the best play. it's a bit tough when he does check because niki is such a bluff factory, but the way this hand played out, i think he just has to deal with it. the worst cards for PA are 9, Q, A, K, then 8 in that order (the Q and 9 would be reversed for his actual hand since he happens to have QJJ). i think if turn was an 8 then i'd be fine with his turn pot, but the K i think is probably a check.

that being said, his EV isn't too bad with the redraw. his play isn't terrible, but i do think it's suboptimal.

Full Tilt Poker $200/$400 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $70 Ante - 2 players
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Gus Hansen (BB): $59404.00
OMGClayAiken (BTN/SB): $52584.50

Pre Flop: ($740.00)
OMGClayAiken raises to $1340, Gus Hansen raises to $4160, OMGClayAiken raises to $12620, Gus Hansen calls $8460

Flop: ($25380.00) 5 2 9 (2 players)
Gus Hansen requests TIME, Gus Hansen checks, OMGClayAiken bets $9200, Gus Hansen raises to $46714 all in, OMGClayAiken calls $30694.50 all in

Turn: ($105169.00) 4 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($105169.00) K (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $105169.00
Gus Hansen shows J 4 J 6 (a pair of Jacks)
OMGClayAiken shows A 3 A 4 (a straight, Five high)
OMGClayAiken wins $105168.50
(Rake: $0.50)


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Gus Hansen (BB): $26819.00
OMGClayAiken (BTN/SB): $105168.00

Pre Flop: ($740.00)
OMGClayAiken raises to $1200, Gus Hansen raises to $3740, OMGClayAiken raises to $11360, Gus Hansen raises to $26749 all in, OMGClayAiken calls $15389

Flop: ($53638.00) Q 7 3

Turn: ($53638.00) 8

River: ($53638.00) A

Final Pot: $53638.00
Gus Hansen shows K K 9 5 (a pair of Kings)
OMGClayAiken shows J Q A K (two pair, Aces and Queens)
OMGClayAiken wins $53637.50
(Rake: $0.50)


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Gus Hansen (BTN/SB): $23739.50
OMGClayAiken (BB): $128246.50

Pre Flop: ($740.00)
Gus Hansen raises to $1340, OMGClayAiken raises to $4160, Gus Hansen requests TIME, Gus Hansen calls $2820

Flop: ($8460.00) K 3 8 (2 players)
OMGClayAiken checks, Gus Hansen bets $8460, OMGClayAiken raises to $33840, Gus Hansen calls $11049.50 all in

Turn: ($47479.00) 9 (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($47479.00) 4 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $47479.00
Gus Hansen shows A 3 Q 7 (a pair of Threes)
OMGClayAiken shows 8 K Q J (two pair, Kings and Eights)
OMGClayAiken wins $47478.50
(Rake: $0.50)

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Gus Hansen (BB): $25628.50
OMGClayAiken (BTN/SB): $146355.50

Pre Flop: ($740.00)
OMGClayAiken calls $200, Gus Hansen raises to $1340, OMGClayAiken calls $940

Flop: ($2820.00) 8 9 2 (2 players)
Gus Hansen bets $2000, OMGClayAiken calls $2000

Turn: ($6820.00) 8 (2 players)
Gus Hansen bets $5200, OMGClayAiken calls $5200

River: ($17220.00) 5 (2 players)
Gus Hansen requests TIME, Gus Hansen checks, OMGClayAiken bets $17220, Gus Hansen requests TIME, Gus Hansen calls $17018.50 all in

Final Pot: $51257.00
OMGClayAiken shows 4 9 9 6 (a full house, Nines full of Eights)
OMGClayAiken wins $51256.50
(Rake: $0.50)

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Gus Hansen (BB): $16470.00
OMGClayAiken (BTN/SB): $171513.50

Pre Flop: ($740.00)
OMGClayAiken raises to $800, Gus Hansen raises to $2540, OMGClayAiken raises to $7760, Gus Hansen calls $5220

Flop: ($15660.00) 7 J 3 (2 players)
Gus Hansen bets $8640 all in, OMGClayAiken calls $8640

Turn: ($32940.00) T (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($32940.00) 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $32940.00
Gus Hansen shows Q 6 Q 5 (a pair of Queens)
OMGClayAiken shows Q J 5 J (a flush, Queen high)
OMGClayAiken wins $32939.50
(Rake: $0.50)

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OnTheRize (CO): $22898.00
OMGClayAiken (BTN): $40358.00
kupkoonkup (SB): $26297.50
Richard Ashby (BB): $12938.00
Brian Townsend (UTG): $44672.00

Pre Flop: ($300.00)
1 fold, OnTheRize raises to $600, OMGClayAiken raises to $2100, 2 folds, OnTheRize calls $1500

Flop: ($4500.00) 9 8 7 (2 players)
OnTheRize checks, OMGClayAiken bets $2000, OnTheRize raises to $5600, OMGClayAiken calls $3600

Turn: ($15700.00) A (2 players)
OnTheRize bets $7850, OMGClayAiken raises to $32658 all in, OnTheRize requests TIME, OnTheRize calls $7348 all in

River: ($46096.00) A (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $46096.00
OnTheRize shows J K A 7 (a full house, Aces full of Sevens)
OMGClayAiken shows 9 4 T J (a straight, Jack high)
OnTheRize wins $46094.00
(Rake: $2.00)

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Gus Hansen (BB): $54018.00
OMGClayAiken (BTN/SB): $173962.50

Pre Flop: ($740.00)
OMGClayAiken raises to $1200, Gus Hansen raises to $2000, OMGClayAiken raises to $4800, Gus Hansen requests TIME, Gus Hansen calls $2800

Flop: ($9740.00) A 4 A (2 players)
Gus Hansen checks, OMGClayAiken bets $4400, Gus Hansen requests TIME, Gus Hansen raises to $9600, OMGClayAiken calls $5200

Turn: ($28940.00) 9 (2 players)
Gus Hansen requests TIME, Gus Hansen checks, OMGClayAiken bets $6800, Gus Hansen requests TIME, Gus Hansen raises to $16400, OMGClayAiken requests TIME, OMGClayAiken calls $9600

River: ($61740.00) 3 (2 players)
Gus Hansen requests TIME, Gus Hansen checks, OMGClayAiken bets $61740, Gus Hansen requests TIME, Gus Hansen calls $23148 all in

Final Pot: $108036.00
OMGClayAiken shows 7 A 9 A (four of a kind, Aces)
OMGClayAiken wins $108035.50
(Rake: $0.50)

haseeb is there any way niki's play here isn't atrocious?

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OnTheRize (CO): $41188.00
OMGClayAiken (BTN): $27392.00
kupkoonkup (SB): $22895.50
Genius28 (BB): $20000.00
Richard Ashby (UTG): $11936.00
Brian Townsend (MP): $46267.00

Pre Flop: ($300.00)
3 folds, OMGClayAiken raises to $600, kupkoonkup calls $500, Genius28 raises to $2400, OMGClayAiken calls $1800, kupkoonkup calls $1800

Flop: ($7200.00) T 9 3 (3 players)
kupkoonkup checks, Genius28 bets $7200, OMGClayAiken raises to $24992 all in, kupkoonkup folds, Genius28 calls $10400 all in

Turn: ($42400.00) 6 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($42400.00) J (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $42400.00
OMGClayAiken shows Q 2 K 9 (a flush, Jack high)
Genius28 shows 3 A 3 A (three of a kind, Threes)
OMGClayAiken wins $42397.00
(Rake: $3.00)

haha what a goofy hand.

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OnTheRize (BTN): $30450.00
OMGClayAiken (SB): $48989.00
kupkoonkup (BB): $21893.50
Richard Ashby (UTG): $22170.00
Brian Townsend (CO): $46167.00

Pre Flop: ($300.00)
Richard Ashby calls $200, Brian Townsend calls $200, OnTheRize raises to $1100, OMGClayAiken calls $1000, kupkoonkup calls $900, Richard Ashby calls $900, Brian Townsend calls $900

Flop: ($5500.00) K A 7 (5 players)
OMGClayAiken checks, kupkoonkup checks, Richard Ashby checks, Brian Townsend checks, OnTheRize bets $3400, OMGClayAiken calls $3400, kupkoonkup folds, Richard Ashby folds, Brian Townsend folds

Turn: ($12300.00) 3 (2 players)
OMGClayAiken checks, OnTheRize bets $8200, OMGClayAiken raises to $36900, OnTheRize calls $17750 all in

River: ($64200.00) T (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $64200.00
OnTheRize shows 6 A 8 K (two pair, Aces and Kings)
OMGClayAiken shows A 5 A Q (three of a kind, Aces)
OMGClayAiken wins $64198.00
(Rake: $2.00)

in all likelihood it isn't. give him 9TKJ, KQJT, 5467, etc. not many hands have equity on this flop to call vs AA, but flatting a 4-bet with a hand like KJT9 is standard.

Full Tilt Poker $200/$400 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $70 Ante - 4 players - View hand 200173
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Richard Ashby (BB): $33236.00
Gus Hansen (CO): $62818.00
OMGClayAiken (BTN): $72570.00
OnTheRize (SB): $25102.00

Pre Flop: ($880.00)
Gus Hansen raises to $1200, OMGClayAiken raises to $4480, 2 folds, Gus Hansen calls $3280

Flop: ($9840.00) T 8 2 (2 players)
Gus Hansen checks, OMGClayAiken bets $6800, Gus Hansen raises to $30240, OMGClayAiken requests TIME, OMGClayAiken raises to $68020 all in, Gus Hansen calls $28028 all in

Turn: ($126376.00) 2 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($126376.00) K (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $126376.00
Gus Hansen shows A 4 2 8 (a full house, Twos full of Eights)
OMGClayAiken shows A Q J Q (a flush, Ace high)
Gus Hansen wins $126374.00
(Rake: $2.00)

Full Tilt Poker $200/$400 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $70 Ante - 3 players - View hand 200190
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Richard Ashby (BTN): $39821.00
Gus Hansen (SB): $101137.00
OMGClayAiken (BB): $184234.00

Pre Flop: ($810.00)
Richard Ashby calls $400, Gus Hansen raises to $1810, OMGClayAiken raises to $6040, 1 fold, Gus Hansen calls $4230

Flop: ($12690.00) 6 T 7 (2 players)
Gus Hansen bets $11600, OMGClayAiken calls $11600

Turn: ($35890.00) T (2 players)
Gus Hansen bets $35890, OMGClayAiken requests TIME, OMGClayAiken raises to $143560, Gus Hansen requests TIME, Gus Hansen calls $47537 all in

River: ($202744.00) Q (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $202744.00
Gus Hansen shows 2 J T A (three of a kind, Tens)
OMGClayAiken shows A 5 Q A (two pair, Aces and Tens)
Gus Hansen wins $202743.00
(Rake: $1.00)

Full Tilt Poker $200/$400 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $70 Ante - 4 players - View hand 200197
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Gus Hansen (CO): $46062.00
OMGClayAiken (BTN): $174499.00
OnTheRize (SB): $23318.00
Richard Ashby (BB): $36087.00

Pre Flop: ($880.00)
Gus Hansen raises to $1680, OMGClayAiken raises to $5920, OnTheRize raises to $20110, 2 folds, OMGClayAiken raises to $34300, OnTheRize calls $3138 all in

Flop: ($48856.00) 2 2 T

Turn: ($48856.00) Q

River: ($48856.00) A

Final Pot: $48856.00
OMGClayAiken shows T A Q 3 (two pair, Aces and Queens)
OnTheRize shows J 9 A A (a full house, Aces full of Twos)
OnTheRize wins $48854.00
(Rake: $2.00)

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OnTheRize (UTG): $20000.00
OMGClayAiken (MP): $82137.00
kupkoonkup (CO): $14190.50
Genius28 (BTN): $19600.00
Richard Ashby (SB): $20870.00
Brian Townsend (BB): $45067.00

Pre Flop: ($300.00)
1 fold, OMGClayAiken raises to $600, kupkoonkup calls $600, Genius28 raises to $2700, 2 folds, OMGClayAiken calls $2100, kupkoonkup calls $2100

Flop: ($8400.00) 7 Q J (3 players)
OMGClayAiken bets $8400, kupkoonkup folds, Genius28 requests TIME, Genius28 raises to $16900 all in, OMGClayAiken calls $8500

Turn: ($42200.00) K (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($42200.00) 2 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $42200.00
OMGClayAiken shows K T Q T (two pair, Kings and Queens)
Genius28 shows A 8 A 5 (a pair of Aces)
OMGClayAiken wins $42197.00
(Rake: $3.00)

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OMGClayAiken (BTN/SB): $269756.50
Gus Hansen (BB): $32107.00

Pre Flop: ($740.00)
OMGClayAiken raises to $1200, Gus Hansen raises to $3740, OMGClayAiken calls $2540

Flop: ($7620.00) 8 9 A (2 players)
Gus Hansen bets $4400, OMGClayAiken raises to $20820, Gus Hansen raises to $28297 all in, OMGClayAiken calls $7477

Turn: ($64214.00) J (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($64214.00) T (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $64214.00
OMGClayAiken shows 4 9 6 T (two pair, Tens and Nines)
Gus Hansen shows 9 3 7 A (a straight, Jack high)
Gus Hansen wins $64213.50
(Rake: $0.50)


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OMGClayAiken (BB): $247107.00
Gus Hansen (BTN/SB): $54752.00

Pre Flop: ($740.00)
Gus Hansen raises to $1340, OMGClayAiken calls $940

Flop: ($2820.00) 3 8 7 (2 players)
OMGClayAiken checks, Gus Hansen bets $2400, OMGClayAiken calls $2400

Turn: ($7620.00) 2 (2 players)
OMGClayAiken checks, Gus Hansen bets $6800, OMGClayAiken calls $6800

River: ($21220.00) J (2 players)
OMGClayAiken checks, Gus Hansen bets $20800, OMGClayAiken calls $20800

Final Pot: $62820.00
OMGClayAiken shows T K 6 K (a pair of Kings)
Gus Hansen shows 9 A 9 4 (a pair of Nines)
OMGClayAiken wins $62819.50
(Rake: $0.50)


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OMGClayAiken (BB): $255174.50
Gus Hansen (BTN/SB): $46683.50

Pre Flop: ($740.00)
Gus Hansen raises to $1340, OMGClayAiken raises to $4160, Gus Hansen calls $2820

Flop: ($8460.00) 5 2 J (2 players)
OMGClayAiken bets $5200, Gus Hansen requests TIME, Gus Hansen raises to $24060, OMGClayAiken raises to $80640, Gus Hansen calls $18393.50 all in

Turn: ($93367.00) Q (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($93367.00) 6 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $93367.00
OMGClayAiken shows 2 A A 6 (two pair, Sixes and Twos)
Gus Hansen shows K 3 J 6 (two pair, Jacks and Sixes)
Gus Hansen wins $93366.50
(Rake: $0.50)


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OMGClayAiken (SB): $214579.50
Richard Ashby (BB): $20000.00
Gus Hansen (CO): $97655.50
OnTheRize (BTN): $9619.00

Pre Flop: ($880.00)
Gus Hansen raises to $1680, OnTheRize calls $1680, 1 fold, Richard Ashby calls $1280

Flop: ($5520.00) 2 A Q (3 players)
Richard Ashby checks, Gus Hansen bets $3600, OnTheRize folds, Richard Ashby raises to $16320, Gus Hansen raises to $29600, Richard Ashby calls $1930 all in

Turn: ($42020.00) J (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($42020.00) J (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $42020.00
Richard Ashby shows 3 4 5 7 (a pair of Jacks)
Gus Hansen shows 3 7 J T (three of a kind, Jacks)
Gus Hansen wins $42018.00
(Rake: $2.00)

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Gus Hansen (BB): $40470.00
OMGClayAiken (BTN/SB): $39530.00

Pre Flop: ($740.00)
OMGClayAiken raises to $1200, Gus Hansen raises to $3740, OMGClayAiken calls $2540

Flop: ($7620.00) 9 6 2 (2 players)
Gus Hansen checks, OMGClayAiken bets $5200, Gus Hansen raises to $23220, OMGClayAiken raises to $35720 all in, Gus Hansen calls $12500

Turn: ($79060.00) J (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($79060.00) 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $79060.00
Gus Hansen shows 8 6 T 9 (two pair, Nines and Eights)
OMGClayAiken shows 4 T Q 9 (a flush, Jack high)
OMGClayAiken wins $79059.50
(Rake: $0.50)

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Gus Hansen (BB): $28356.00
OMGClayAiken (BTN/SB): $91636.00

Pre Flop: ($740.00)
OMGClayAiken raises to $1200, Gus Hansen calls $800

Flop: ($2540.00) 9 4 3 (2 players)
Gus Hansen bets $2540, OMGClayAiken calls $2540

Turn: ($7620.00) 8 (2 players)
Gus Hansen checks, OMGClayAiken bets $6400, Gus Hansen raises to $24546 all in, OMGClayAiken calls $18146

River: ($56712.00) Q (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $56712.00
Gus Hansen shows 3 K 9 5 (two pair, Nines and Threes)
OMGClayAiken shows 2 4 5 6 (a pair of Fours)
Gus Hansen wins $56711.50
(Rake: $0.50)

haseeb, what do you think of fullflush's game? do you feel as if you have an edge on him? are you going to play him anytime soon?

Full Tilt Poker $200/$400 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $70 Ante - 2 players
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Gus Hansen (BB): $56180.00
OMGClayAiken (BTN/SB): $63808.00

Pre Flop: ($740.00)
OMGClayAiken raises to $800, Gus Hansen raises to $2540, OMGClayAiken calls $1740

Flop: ($5220.00) 5 3 T (2 players)
Gus Hansen checks, OMGClayAiken bets $3200, Gus Hansen raises to $14820, OMGClayAiken calls $11620

Turn: ($34860.00) 3 (2 players)
Gus Hansen requests TIME, Gus Hansen bets $34860, OMGClayAiken raises to $46378 all in, Gus Hansen calls $3890 all in

River: ($112360.00) 7 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $112360.00
Gus Hansen shows T 9 Q J (two pair, Tens and Threes)
OMGClayAiken shows 2 K 4 6 (a flush, King high)
OMGClayAiken wins $112359.50
(Rake: $0.50)

OMGClayAiken: wauw

Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing Tc 3c 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Jd 9d Th 19 47.50 21 52.50 0 0.00 0.475
4s Kc 6c 2c 21 52.50 19 47.50 0 0.00 0.525

ninja: not many hands get me wondering, but this one sure did