no, niki is only slightly ahead of KQJ9. that being said, he's only slightly behind a completely bare JT, but PA is unlikely to have a completely bare JT with the line he took. for 300bb, bare JT is nowhere near strong enough to be pumping the pot this big on the flop. he'd be much more likely to take a line like bet/call flop c/r a blank turn or c/c flop c/r a blank turn, etc. his range is weighted strongly toward sets i think, since a hand like JT + extra outs would often be something like JTQK, AKJT, 89JT, QJT9 which are extremely likely to 3-bet preflop unless they're completely rainbow - the same goes for an unpaired or single paired wrap. against a bare JT, niki's hand actually has 45% which isn't bad at all, but against a set his equity is a lot worse, and his line isn't really indicative of bare JT.
he also would be very unlikely to bet/3-bet an easily dominated wrap like Q98 this deep. KQ98 does make sense though, which is a 50/50 against AAQ8.
niki's flat on the AAQ8 isn't terrible. if he turns a 9 he's going with his hand, of course a K gives him the nuts, an A he probably won't fold, the bottom card pairing i'm sure he'll shove the turn hoping PA has JTxx or some kind of wrap, and if the turn comes a Q he'll almost certainly bluff with his blockers to represent AK. that's 13 outs that he's shoving for value on and 3 really good bluffing outs. unfortunately, the only actual clean outs are the K's, because if PA won't jam a 9 or an A with a bare JTx, and when he bet/3-bets the flop he has a wrap a ton of the time, so none of niki's shoving outs are great except for the K and the 4 probably.
okay.. once Niki calls flop should PA check/fold turn? thanks for your analysis btw.. very informative
Of open enders Q9xx got there but Niki doesn't necessarily have that, he could still have some KQTx kind of hand that now has a an open ender to the nuts. Also PA has the same open ender with a Q so adding that to his set (which obv has the full house redraws) makes it an easy follow-up pot-sized bet as the eff. stacks are only slightly bigger than the turn pot size. Checking and thus giving a free card against a hand like KQTx would be bad (KT drawing to a higher full house*).
pa should almost certainly check the turn with QJJ because he can't be giving up equity here to a hand like KQ when he he has the Qx straight draw as well. all that betting accomplishes is get niki off of a worse hand that has no outs, get him off a hand that has some chance to split or <20% equity, and gets him stacked by Q9/AQ. checking has to be the best play. it's a bit tough when he does check because niki is such a bluff factory, but the way this hand played out, i think he just has to deal with it. the worst cards for PA are 9, Q, A, K, then 8 in that order (the Q and 9 would be reversed for his actual hand since he happens to have QJJ). i think if turn was an 8 then i'd be fine with his turn pot, but the K i think is probably a check.
that being said, his EV isn't too bad with the redraw. his play isn't terrible, but i do think it's suboptimal.
Pre Flop: ($880.00)
Gus Hansen raises to $1200, OMGClayAiken raises to $4480, 2 folds, Gus Hansen calls $3280
Flop: ($9840.00) T 8 2 (2 players)
Gus Hansen checks, OMGClayAiken bets $6800, Gus Hansen raises to $30240, OMGClayAiken requests TIME, OMGClayAiken raises to $68020 all in, Gus Hansen calls $28028 all in
Turn: ($126376.00) 2 (2 players - 2 are all in)
River: ($126376.00) K (2 players - 2 are all in)
Final Pot: $126376.00
Gus Hansen shows A 4 2 8 (a full house, Twos full of Eights)
OMGClayAiken shows A Q J Q (a flush, Ace high)
Gus Hansen wins $126374.00