Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

News, Views, and Gossip For poker news, views, and gossip

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-20-2017, 02:15 AM   #501
relaxursoul
newbie
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 40
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood View Post
I have no idea about this particular situation but Jason staked me for HSNL for Annie. At the PCA, day 1, this guy comes to my door accusing me of stealing from him after a cash game loss the night b4. Ironically, he staked a few other players who were indeed pocketing some of his $, whom I tried to convince to stop...

Seems like he has a history of this kind of behavior...
Are you saying that after Jason decided to stake you, which requires some level of trust, he then immediately accused you of stealing after your first losing session, even though you were the one trying to protect him by telling others to stop stealing from him? Maybe I’m misinterpreting or missing something as this seems hard to believe, can you please provide more details?
relaxursoul is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2017, 02:19 AM   #502
relaxursoul
newbie
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 40
Thumbs up Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Why View Post
The very idea that Mercier is trigger happy with his accusations of cheating is easily disproved by a check of his twitter account, with an entirely randomly selected twitter from 3 days ago asking "How much was this kid on vandy paid to intentionally foul NWs 86% FT shooter vandy up 1 with 18 secs left Lol rigged #MarchMadness".

Oh.

Rosas may yet come up smelling of roses.
LOL that last comment was gold! You made me laugh
relaxursoul is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2017, 02:21 AM   #503
Joooker
newbie
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 33
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by relaxursoul View Post

I do want to mention that this whole situation has been very stressful for Jaclynn as she plays live poker for a living and has to deal with all the negative aspects that come with being labeled or speculated to be a cheater. She told me it's "depressing as ****". For the rest of her life when she walks into a cardroom some people will speculate if she's a cheater. In fact, yesterday at a poker game she was told “how can you even show up at any poker game?” I currently do not play live poker so I do not have to deal with all the negativity this situation brought to her life.
Maybe you should have thought about this before you dragged her into this in your original post.

It's clear that you started this thread for attention and to get yourself better known (congrats, it worked), and probably with the intention to line up a game with Mercier. He doesn't seem to give a rat's ass about you or in playing you, so move on and let it go.
Joooker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2017, 02:31 AM   #504
relaxursoul
newbie
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 40
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by SageDonkey View Post
From what I've read ITT so far, it does seem apparent that you only need to be a little bit under par in skill and know how to get crushed over a decent sample at OFC by a player of superior skill.

The confident way the OP analyses hands and plays in his videos and in his posts and the high level dissection of the math behind the game that he does, indicates that he is going to have a substantial edge over beginner and recreational players and a small to medium edge over the more serious players who are good but perhaps play slightly more on feel than him and less based on pure math equities and deep analysis strategy.

Assuming his stats on his video showing all games have not been doctored in any way, then they do fit in with all of the above.

Whilst there is no hard evidence that he is using a bot or an exploit in the app, what is obvious is that if you are playing OFC professionally as your main card game then you are going to use every tool possible. So *without* "cheating" you would be stupid not to have notes all over the place on paper and/or spreadsheets etc, or all over your walls, about the strategic dos and don'ts of OFC, equity calcs and all other relevant strategy relating to OFC, as well as all of the notes and playing knowledge that are naturally stored in your brain.

This is no different to playing NLHE on line and having notes on opponents, using push shove range charts, sticking things on the wall to remind you of some dos and don'ts and referring to all sorts of other data, analysis and strategy material whilst actually playing the game and in your study before and after games. None of this is cheating.

But the big area of doubt for me is whether the OP really is a relative fish in live play as I simply don't buy that you could be awful live in any card game but brilliant on line. I can accept that decisions may take you longer when you are new to the live game but not that you could make a lot of schoolboy basic errors and be half the player you are compared to playing on line.

However, it is in dispute as to whether the OP, Fernando, is a weak live player, because he claims that his live record is decent but Jason Mercier has disputed this and they have both basically given near opposite accounts of the live record in games played between Fernando and Natasha Mercier.

It is strange that they disagree so much about his live results and I think you have to get to the bottom of this subject before you can evaluate how likely it is that the OP has gone beyond simply using an ethical but highly skilled and well planned and executed approach on line, or if he has crossed the line and is using a bot, an app exploit or some kind of other unfair or unethical playing advantage.

IMO neither Fernando or Jason are likely to back down from their standpoint on the live results.

I feel that a better way to establish whether Fernando is a weakish to average player live or a very good player live is not for him to play Jason or Natasha live under the scrutiny of others, but for him to play a series of matches live against a variety of known and "graded" OFC players, under the scrutiny of others.

And these matches do not need to be at ego style high stakes, they can be at relatively low stakes as they would just be a method of establishing his standard of play playing live against a variety of strength of opponent. If the players can be found and he can demonstrate over a decent sample of hands that he has the kind of edge that he claims he has then I believe this would clear his name and support that his on line results are good purely because he has a playing edge.

Also the games can be observed by good OFC players who would easily be able to analyse the strength of his plays or otherwise, which would also point towards whether he really is good or not.
I like your idea a lot. I want to add that OFC is not a game of exploitation. Game theory optimal play will always lead to the highest EV play. I am willing to play various opponents, but considering that the Palm Beach Kennel Club Is willing to host and stream a match between Natasha and I, it might be better if I play Natasha in that setting.
relaxursoul is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2017, 10:21 AM   #505
MIB211
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 2,659
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by relaxursoul View Post
I like your idea a lot. I want to add that OFC is not a game of exploitation. Game theory optimal play will always lead to the highest EV play.
Legitimately curious, is it correct that OFC is not a game of exploitation? For instance, I play the stupid Double Bot and Mighty Bot some. They love to make flushes (in a way that's clearly sub-optimal). When I play them, I'm more likely to go for an ace-high flush on the bottom, because there's a reasonable likelihood that we both have a flush on the bottom and I want mine to be good.

In other words, say I got dealt something like AhJsTh7h4h, against the bots I'd be more apt to put all 4 hearts on the bottom. Against a live player I'd be more likely to put the Ah on top or middle and go for FL, because on the bottom I'm less likely to be beaten by a bigger flush, and more likely to be beaten by a full house.

Note, I'm an OFC fish, so it's probably the case that my sets in both examples are wrong, I'm just illuminating the point.
MIB211 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2017, 10:22 AM   #506
MIB211
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 2,659
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

And since I bothered to post in this thread, I'll also say that there doesn't seem to be much evidence that OP is cheating, but no one owes him action.
MIB211 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2017, 11:57 AM   #507
Jay Why
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Lundun
Posts: 150
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211 View Post
And since I bothered to post in this thread, I'll also say that there doesn't seem to be much evidence that OP is cheating, but no one owes him action.
I liked sagedonkey's post a lot, where he was saying play live against a range of players to show the real ability.

It looks as though for now solid proof will have to take second place to circumstantial evidence, as anyone knowing Fernando's ways of getting an unfair advantage will keep the info to themselves to exploit as well.

But if the below $5 a point results were presented on a graph, it would be unbelievably successful, as even fish win sometimes, yet Fernando claims to have only lost once at low stakes....

Is he a cheater? If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, it's a duck.

And if it looks like a busty blonde Professional Poker Player, Consultant Physician Scientist, it's deeply upset by these foul accusations against her astonishingly quick progress in online cards Jaclynn being modest.
Jay Why is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2017, 12:26 PM   #508
SuperSwag
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 3,760
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by LOLCh1pPorn View Post
Because she is confident he isn't cheating, which is the statement she is trying to back up by taking his live action

srsly thread needs less bs, more OFC live play
forgive my ignorance but isn't Jason one of the best OFC players right now? Why the hell would you have confidence betting against him? it makes no sense.
SuperSwag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2017, 03:36 PM   #509
bbfg
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
bbfg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 11,421
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperSwag View Post
forgive my ignorance but isn't Jason one of the best OFC players right now? Why the hell would you have confidence betting against him? it makes no sense.
Edges can still be significant amongst the top of the world in certain games. Not sure if OFC fits this category
bbfg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2017, 04:11 PM   #510
PhilHelmet
centurion
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 156
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by ty4thDime$ View Post

Playing him live for one day seems really pointless, can't actually see any way that it will help Fernando get app action, even if he is the best player int he world I'm sure it's not a great spot at very high stakes for him. Jason can't really be bothered and win/lose/draw i think the chance of him coming here and saying after "Nope, got it wrong, defo no cheating" are very, very slim.
Not only pointless, but Fernando is in a NO WIN situation:
1) He plays poorly, loses to Jason -> Cheater -> No future OFC action
2) He plays like a boss, crushes Jason -> GOAT -> No future OFC Action
PhilHelmet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2017, 04:14 PM   #511
stinkypete
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
stinkypete's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: somewhere
Posts: 13,731
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilHelmet View Post
Not only pointless, but Fernando is in a NO WIN situation:
1) He plays poorly, loses to Jason -> Cheater -> No future OFC action
2) He plays like a boss, crushes Jason -> GOAT -> No future OFC Action
Yeah, gotta protect all that great action he's undoubtedly drowning in lately.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
stinkypete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2017, 04:43 PM   #512
relaxursoul
newbie
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 40
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211 View Post
Legitimately curious, is it correct that OFC is not a game of exploitation? For instance, I play the stupid Double Bot and Mighty Bot some. They love to make flushes (in a way that's clearly sub-optimal). When I play them, I'm more likely to go for an ace-high flush on the bottom, because there's a reasonable likelihood that we both have a flush on the bottom and I want mine to be good.

In other words, say I got dealt something like AhJsTh7h4h, against the bots I'd be more apt to put all 4 hearts on the bottom. Against a live player I'd be more likely to put the Ah on top or middle and go for FL, because on the bottom I'm less likely to be beaten by a bigger flush, and more likely to be beaten by a full house.

Note, I'm an OFC fish, so it's probably the case that my sets in both examples are wrong, I'm just illuminating the point.
Assume someone is playing a GTO strategy, then all the decisions he makes is based on ALL the information directly available during a hand. Consequently, the GTO strategy of this player WILL depend on the way your opponent sets his cards, however, this does not make it an exploitive strategy. An example, suppose your opponent gets KK9 and plays KK top while having AsKsQsJsTs/TT8/9, and you have 334/6678/J5 and you get 22t. Then you must place 22 on the bottom because you almost never foul with two pair bottom and you get 6 points when your opponent fouls, which is very likely to occur. Had your opponent played 9 top and K middle then you must leave the bottom open because your only equity left would be from making a boat or quads in the bottom since you are getting scooped regardless of what you do. Here we are making two different decisions based on what our opponent is playing, but they are both GTO since they are based on all the information available. An exploitive strategy derives from assumptions of what an opponent’s strategy is and not from the information directly available during a hand. To visualize this in NL Holdem, imagine a game where everyone has their cards face up (ridiculous game I know). You’re playing heads up and have 5s3s on a JsTs2h. Your opponent has AhJd and shoves $1000 into a pot of $10. GTO dictates you should fold. Suppose your opponent bets $1 into the pot, then GTO dictates you should call. An exploitive strategy is derived from assumptions of how you think your opponent is playing his cards (unknown information), and since there is no unknown information (besides discarded cards, which does have a tiny effect on strategy if you are well aware of the distribution of discarded cards) OFC is not a game of exploitation. In other words, there exists no strategy that has a higher EV against any opponent other than GTO. Hope that made sense.
relaxursoul is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2017, 04:53 PM   #513
LOLCh1pPorn
Pooh-Bah
 
LOLCh1pPorn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Probably not folding
Posts: 4,260
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperSwag View Post
forgive my ignorance but isn't Jason one of the best OFC players right now? Why the hell would you have confidence betting against him? it makes no sense.
Because she believes Fernando would have an edge vs him live regardless, it's really that simple. She is simply expressing her confidence in him not being a cheat but rather an excellent OFC player.

I'm not saying OP is guilty of cheating or not because based on the arguments given in this thread it's simply impossible to know. If he was to play live vs Jason and win or at least show very skillful play over a somewhat meaningful sample , it would be a very reasonable argument agains OP cheating on the app. It's really that simple. OP, play live, the more the better, and your reputation will benefit from it.
LOLCh1pPorn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2017, 05:03 PM   #514
MIB211
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 2,659
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by relaxursoul View Post
Assume someone is playing a GTO strategy, then all the decisions he makes is based on ALL the information directly available during a hand. Consequently, the GTO strategy of this player WILL depend on the way your opponent sets his cards, however, this does not make it an exploitive strategy. An example, suppose your opponent gets KK9 and plays KK top while having AsKsQsJsTs/TT8/9, and you have 334/6678/J5 and you get 22t. Then you must place 22 on the bottom because you almost never foul with two pair bottom and you get 6 points when your opponent fouls, which is very likely to occur. Had your opponent played 9 top and K middle then you must leave the bottom open because your only equity left would be from making a boat or quads in the bottom since you are getting scooped regardless of what you do. Here we are making two different decisions based on what our opponent is playing, but they are both GTO since they are based on all the information available. An exploitive strategy derives from assumptions of what an opponent’s strategy is and not from the information directly available during a hand. To visualize this in NL Holdem, imagine a game where everyone has their cards face up (ridiculous game I know). You’re playing heads up and have 5s3s on a JsTs2h. Your opponent has AhJd and shoves $1000 into a pot of $10. GTO dictates you should fold. Suppose your opponent bets $1 into the pot, then GTO dictates you should call. An exploitive strategy is derived from assumptions of how you think your opponent is playing his cards (unknown information), and since there is no unknown information (besides discarded cards, which does have a tiny effect on strategy if you are well aware of the distribution of discarded cards) OFC is not a game of exploitation. In other words, there exists no strategy that has a higher EV against any opponent other than GTO. Hope that made sense.
Thank you, this is much more interesting to me than the cheating discussion

My point on GTO is say that I'm first to act and I'm dealt AJ943 all hearts. Normally, I'd put 4 hearts on the bottom, and the Ace up top (maybe that should be in the middle, I'm sure you'd know), because I assume I'll get dealt another heart at some point to make my flush, and in a vacuum I don't value having my flush on the bottom be ace-high. However, say I'm playing an opponent that I think tries to hard to make flushes on the bottom (like Double Bot and Mighty Bot on the app play). Now, even though my opponent hasn't set yet, I'm more inclined to play all 5 hearts on the bottom, to get an ace-high flush on the bottom and make it more likely I win the bottom v. a lower flush.

Edited to add - This also demonstrates to me that I never know where to put the ace in this type of situation. Do I put it up top for FL and hope to make two pair in the middle, or do I put it in the middle, hope to pair the ace and then get KK or QQ for FL? If the ace were a K or Q instead, I'd definitely put it up top.
MIB211 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2017, 02:50 PM   #515
jungleman
veteran
 
jungleman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: now doing plo and nl coaching
Posts: 2,026
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

I played Fernando a little at very small stakes ( I too was intimidated by his way of getting action, the things jason said, and him posting first). He gave me some advice on some hands, and, looking at some math it seems he actually does know what he's talking about. I personally don't think he's cheating because of this and think someone with their own stream on OFC that gives strategy away is not a likely cheater. That being said, I totally understand Jason's suspicions given his experience with Fernando are pretty reasonable. I also think that Fernando is in general better off clearing his name by playing live more. As others have pointed out, if his live results match online there is much less reason to be worried, and a thread like this might hurt his action on the app pretty badly. I guess on a positive note for him, probably a lot of people would still be willing to play him live as a result of this
jungleman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2017, 03:14 PM   #516
SageDonkey
old hand
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,952
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by jungleman View Post
I played Fernando a little at very small stakes ( I too was intimidated by his way of getting action, the things jason said, and him posting first). He gave me some advice on some hands, and, looking at some math it seems he actually does know what he's talking about. I personally don't think he's cheating because of this and think someone with their own stream on OFC that gives strategy away is not a likely cheater. That being said, I totally understand Jason's suspicions given his experience with Fernando are pretty reasonable. I also think that Fernando is in general better off clearing his name by playing live more. As others have pointed out, if his live results match online there is much less reason to be worried, and a thread like this might hurt his action on the app pretty badly. I guess on a positive note for him, probably a lot of people would still be willing to play him live as a result of this
If you're the real Jungleman, brilliant post. If you're not, terrible post.

Sorry, that's how it works around here.

SageDonkey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2017, 03:25 PM   #517
jungleman
veteran
 
jungleman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: now doing plo and nl coaching
Posts: 2,026
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

unless you doubt I am the TRUE jungleman, I think you mean "luckily for you" instead of "sorry"
jungleman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2017, 03:31 PM   #518
SageDonkey
old hand
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,952
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by jungleman View Post
unless you doubt I am the TRUE jungleman, I think you mean "luckily for you" instead of "sorry"
I'm sure many others know if you are or not but I genuinely do not.

What I said, tongue in cheek, is true to an extent though, in the same way that a signed oil painting masterpiece with provenance is worth millions but unsigned and with no provenance is firewood.
SageDonkey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2017, 03:59 PM   #519
sardu
journeyman
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 299
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by SageDonkey View Post
Sorry, that's how it works around here.
you, picking up a ming vase and saying, "I'm an expert, now let you me tell you how to spot a picasso."
sardu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2017, 04:29 PM   #520
Gabethebabe
Malware Jedi
 
Gabethebabe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: In front of my monitor
Posts: 21,247
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by SageDonkey View Post
If you're the real Jungleman, brilliant post. If you're not, terrible post.
Ask him if he is playing durrrr. If he is not, he is the real jungleman
Gabethebabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2017, 04:31 PM   #521
jungleman
veteran
 
jungleman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: now doing plo and nl coaching
Posts: 2,026
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Hmm, I like to be considered a world class artist. I guess I will post more often.
jungleman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2017, 05:14 PM   #522
SageDonkey
old hand
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,952
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Quote:
Originally Posted by jungleman View Post
Hmm, I like to be considered a world class artist. I guess I will post more often.
I've done some research into "jungleman"'s previous posts here on 2plus2 going back to the Full Tilt nose bleed stakes days........ and confirmed, this is the real Jungleman.
SageDonkey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2017, 05:18 PM   #523
Codecci
veteran
 
Codecci's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Estonia
Posts: 2,633
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

Yes it's legit junglemans account.

Last edited by Codecci; 03-21-2017 at 05:19 PM. Reason: too late
Codecci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2017, 05:38 PM   #524
bbfg
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
bbfg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 11,421
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

jungleman we'd love your input on PH's new story of TD winning 30m in 1 night in Macau and ballin in private jets.
bbfg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2017, 06:30 PM   #525
Jay Why
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Lundun
Posts: 150
Re: Jason Mercier spreads unfounded cheating accusations

It's funny, Mercier complains that Fernando is uncannily better with an app than playing live.

The same Mercier who is down $500,000 on Pokerstars, and has $17,000,000 in live cashes.

Using Mercier logic, with such a discrepancy, Mercier must be cheating at live poker!
Jay Why is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:12 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online