Ok, This is my first post,, long time lurker, I know alot round here dont like first time posters but i believe what i am about to say below is worth saying so here goes:
Right, DTD have put their name to the event, this is good, It will make many feel more comfortable with the event and trust it more.. but a couple of points should be brought up for consideration:
Last time DTD did a $1mil Guarantee they had Poker Stars supplying the runners to make sure the numbers worked out.
How many runner does this event need to make the 'Day 2' (the Wembley live day) to ensure that the $1mil first place is a sensible amount OR more to the point, is an amount that means a workable event - so lets say, for a sensible argument 1500 runners
Now - do we think DTD can get this event to 1500 runners qualified to Day 2 in the time frame with no 'stars, 'tilt or Party qualifiers ?
lets put this in perspective - the EPT San Remo gets 1200 ish runners and is basically the largest (decent buy in) live event in Europe - That has the Worlds largest poker site feeding it and Italy's largest poker site ALSO
(someone correct me but there may have been a 1600 runners event before but im sure it was poker stars sponsored so this kinda proves my point anyway)
There is an Irish (and a very good one) that has more runners BUT its a low buy in (lower than ISPT 300euro) so im not sure it counts in this argument
Will Trumper run a good event - YES, well certainly better than Partouche will !!! (BTW they still have say in how its run !)
What numbers do ISPT need to break even enough to let the event run ?
1k ? 2k ? without knowing revenue streams its difficult to say but it isnt cheap. where is their point of no return ?
Anyone still thinking it will be played on the pitch are wrong, It will now be played in the conference area - so all this,, what if it rains crap,, running down the sidelines to get hand histories etc,, forget it,, its inside now
DTD CANNOT have put up a free $1mil garantee (btw for those of you who havent noticed i dont have a euro symbol key,, so just substitute as required!) for there not to be a safety barrier to make sure they dont put in so much and get no return -- I do wonder what that number of entrants is ? 1000 ? I'm guessing at this amount but it does sound logical --- this begs the question: will they get 1000 runners ?
With those buying in directly to Day 2 (the 2700+300 buy in) they get 50k in chips, the tournament AVERAGE, and will most likely have larger stacks on their tables,, why do this ? and with 70% of day2 getting paid - starting from (im guessing) 400 euros, then very roughly the full buy in guys have to get to top 8% of the feild to get paid sensible as (again very roughly) 20% of the money will have been paid out already.
the WSOP get 6.5k runner (ish) ,, this event wants half of that (3k day 2 ca now!) with NO major site feeding it. sorry but DTD is a site on Ipoker and the WHOLE ipoker network is about the same size as Party (check
www.pokerscout.com for full breakdown of real money players online at any time, im sure most of you know about this site but maybe some dont)
to break even, lets say 1.5k !!, the ISPT needs to get 25% of the WSOP numbers with no feeder site of note, no time, no history (very important), a bad rep, TERRIBLE partners (Yes Partouche I'm looking at you!), and already removal of guarantees, changes, alterations, poor PR etc etc)
so the real question is: Can it be done... ?
me, i thin they get 800 runners and then cancel it... thats what i think happens,, BUT i do actually hope im wrong.. ISPT please prove me wrong PLEASE !