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ICM, Unfair Advantage for Late Register and PokerStars problem ICM, Unfair Advantage for Late Register and PokerStars problem

08-14-2018 , 10:06 AM
Every time there are more tournaments with Late Register, and meanwhile some years ago thise Late Register lasted only a couple of levels (and sometimes losing blinds), now you can enter late a lot of hours, including in Day 2, and receive full stack

But I want to show something, first with the example and later I will give the conclusions

Imagine a 10 player Sit&Go with a classical payout structure (50/30/20)

The 10 players start with full stack, that is that they received for the buy-in. If we donŽt think in fees, one stack is one buy-in. For example, if they receive 1000 points and they paid 100$, we can say that at starting point 100$=1000 points

We suppose that after an undetermined number of hands, one player had double stack (2000 points), one is eliminated and all other has the starting stack

If we use any ICM calculator we will see that:

-The player that had doubled the stack, 2000 points, it is not 200$ by ICM, if not only 184,44$

-The busted player is obvious 0$

-And the remaining players, even they had the original stack, they worth, 101,94$ (it means that even they donŽt get points, his stack worth 2% more than at first

Imagine now that a player makes a late register, pays 100$ and receive a full stack:

-The leader will have 186$
-All other players 101,55$

Then, the new entrant, the late register, pays 100$ and receive in exchange 101,55 (he wins over 1,5% just , because he enters late)

This is a mathematical issue that happens in tournament, the person that registers LATE earns money just because he is doing it

In some tournaments, late register can enter only in Big Blind (that is a good point, but anyway, he gets a benefit because of I just explained). Other tournaments allow late register sits when he wants, and of course, usually he waits for the blinds pass him

Then, my conclusions:

-By ICM , if you make a late refgister you will win money just for doing it. In a 5000$ tournament you can win over 100$ just for doing it.

-If you play in every tournament the very first hand, you will lose some money. Not only you will pay the fee, if not you will pay a small fee to late register

-By mathematical issues, if a tournament is winner takes it all, nothing of this happens, and buy-in and stack are fully proportional whole time. But always that not (that usually tournaments and sits are not Winner Takes It All) late register would give you some advantage

I think TDA should regulate this, in order to include ICM in tournaments as a standard money to make all rules. For example, when PokerStars had the problems recently, 2 players received more money than the original money for the winner.

These absurds are caused because they donŽt use ICM when ICM should be mandatory, because ICM is maths.

I know that ICM in a multi table tournament is difficult to calculate, but I guess they have enough money to pay a maths guy to make a simulation and pay by ICM (or some program that gives a close amount of money to ICM)
ICM, Unfair Advantage for Late Register and PokerStars problem Quote
08-14-2018 , 10:17 AM
ICM is maths.
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08-14-2018 , 10:20 AM
Deciding whether to late reg and how late you do it, is part of the skill of playing MTTs.

Late regging will typically increase your ICM, by how much depends on the tournament and payout structure, but it also depends on the strength of the remaining field at the point at which you late reg, relative to regging at the start.

You also have to take into account your own skill level playing shallower because if your edge is bigger deep stacked then late regging might technically increase your ICM value, but in reality you've reduced your own EV.
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08-14-2018 , 11:51 AM
The first 2 hours are for noobs.
ICM, Unfair Advantage for Late Register and PokerStars problem Quote
08-14-2018 , 12:41 PM
If I don't reg at all it's +EV
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08-14-2018 , 12:51 PM
I don't exactly know what OP is suggesting should be done here, and I don't understand what the "PokerStars problem" he is referencing is.

Also, it's a bit misleading to use SNGs as an example, as SNGs have much higher ICM distortions early on (since they pay 30% of the field and the exact bubble pays out 60% of the prize pool) and of course you can't late reg an SNG.

That said, the registration periods in a lot of tournaments have gotten ridiculous. In many live tournaments now, you can register well into the second day.

This does create a slight ICM advantage for people who are late regging. But I think more importantly, it destroys the structure of the tournament. In the middle stages of the tournament, when most players who entered at a normal time have an average stack of 30 or 50 BBs, you suddenly end up with a bunch of new entrants with 10-15 BB stacks. Now everyone pretty much has to play push/fold, and the care that the tournament structure makes to assure a steady increase in blinds to retain the potential for post-flop play becomes irrelevant.

I would love to see tournaments go back to the the standard from about 10 years ago where you could only late reg for a reasonable amount of time (e.g. 2 hours) and you did so with a slight penalty to your starting stack.
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08-14-2018 , 01:13 PM
The "PokerStars problem" is that you can sometimes late-reg into tournaments that are very close to the bubble and cash without winning a single hand. I've done it myself.
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08-14-2018 , 01:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaKing
ICM is maths.
That is exactly I want to say

Quote:
Originally Posted by SageDonkey
Deciding whether to late reg and how late you do it, is part of the skill of playing MTTs.

Late regging will typically increase your ICM, by how much depends on the tournament and payout structure, but it also depends on the strength of the remaining field at the point at which you late reg, relative to regging at the start.

You also have to take into account your own skill level playing shallower because if your edge is bigger deep stacked then late regging might technically increase your ICM value, but in reality you've reduced your own EV.
Your message is very good attending to a strategical point as a player. I mean, a player should know exactly what you said, every player should know it.

But here IŽm talking about that there is a rule that is unfair, that a player should not have an advantage just because he is late

Imagine a tournament that has these rules:

1.-Winner takes it all
2.-If you enter on Day 1 I give you 10.000 points, if you enter on Day 2 I give you 10.300 points

It will be unfair and absurd. Every player will act strategically as you suggest, but as Tournament Director it will be very fool tournament and decision

Well, in fact, all tournaments are as I exposed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pcallinallin
The first 2 hours are for noobs.
There is one thing that some personalities of poker suggested time ago, including, if IŽm not mistaken, Tom Dwan and Matt Savage, that it is make a long first level, but not as deep as normal

I did it in one tournament, first level is a Big Blind of 1% of stack, but lasts as 6 regular levels.

Maybe instead 50-100, 100-200, 150-300, 200-400 is better start with a Level 1 200-400 but lasts 4 levels, for example

Quote:
Originally Posted by toki
If I don't reg at all it's +EV
Yep, as a player yes, but the issue here, or this post, IŽm talking to tournament directors and poker authorities

Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
I don't exactly know what OP is suggesting should be done here, and I don't understand what the "PokerStars problem" he is referencing is.
It is a problem I donŽt want to talk, but there are other posts in this forum that will explain you carefully


Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
Also, it's a bit misleading to use SNGs as an example, as SNGs have much higher ICM distortions early on (since they pay 30% of the field and the exact bubble pays out 60% of the prize pool) and of course you can't late reg an SNG.
Yes, but just I could expose as a example a Sit and Go, I could not write an example of a 500 player tournament

But mathematically the effect is similar



Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
That said, the registration periods in a lot of tournaments have gotten ridiculous. In many live tournaments now, you can register well into the second day.

Yep, fully agree with you. And even there are many problems with is, as you expose a couple of them, also the ICM issue with late register is by far much bigger

Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
This does create a slight ICM advantage for people who are late regging. But I think more importantly, it destroys the structure of the tournament. In the middle stages of the tournament, when most players who entered at a normal time have an average stack of 30 or 50 BBs, you suddenly end up with a bunch of new entrants with 10-15 BB stacks. Now everyone pretty much has to play push/fold, and the care that the tournament structure makes to assure a steady increase in blinds to retain the potential for post-flop play becomes irrelevant.
Good point too. Very interesting


Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
I would love to see tournaments go back to the the standard from about 10 years ago where you could only late reg for a reasonable amount of time (e.g. 2 hours) and you did so with a slight penalty to your starting stack.
I agree with you. Unfortunetaly, it will be difficult, because if stacks lose blinds until new player arrives, there will be less buy-ins and there, less money for the organizer

It a competition between fairness and lucrative things, and in poker, since the beginning, we know who wins
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08-14-2018 , 01:49 PM
OP seems to be forgetting that, if he plays from the start, that his chip stack is not going to stay static. Why cry about someone gaining $3 in EV by late regging if your EV increases by $10 by beating up on the donks in the early levels?

Then again, I think in that example most people would give up $7 of EV to avoid playing an extra couple of hours of a donkament
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08-14-2018 , 01:53 PM
Ferguson did this the entire WSOP and won player of the year. It’s not about an ICM loophole, it’s about increasing the number of tourneys you can participate in, while sacrificing a little EV. The first several hours (or an entire day) can be spent making money doing something else, and you still get a fair chance to cash or win the tournament anyway.

Anyway, how is this a problem for PokerStars or any poker venue? Sounds like OP regrets that way more money gets into the prize pool? How does any of this in any way reduce the ROI of any other player?
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08-14-2018 , 02:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by robert_utk
Ferguson did this the entire WSOP and won player of the year. It’s not about an ICM loophole, it’s about increasing the number of tourneys you can participate in, while sacrificing a little EV. The first several hours (or an entire day) can be spent making money doing something else, and you still get a fair chance to cash or win the tournament anyway.

Anyway, how is this a problem for PokerStars or any poker venue? Sounds like OP regrets that way more money gets into the prize pool? How does any of this in any way reduce the ROI of any other player?
Ferguson's strategy probably isn't particularly +EV in terms of money expectation. He gains a bit of an ICM advantage, but because the mincash in the WSOP is now so small, he would probably be better off trying to build a stack earlier in the tournament to potentially run deep if he only cared about money.

But because of the way POY points have been distributed the last couple years, max late regging is a -huge- advantage in terms of POY maximization. I think there were situations where a mincash earned like half the points that someone winning 10x the money got. So just trying to slip into the money in every possible situation, while not actually profitable, is by far the easiest way to get POY.
ICM, Unfair Advantage for Late Register and PokerStars problem Quote
08-14-2018 , 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2pairsof2s
The "PokerStars problem" is that you can sometimes late-reg into tournaments that are very close to the bubble and cash without winning a single hand. I've done it myself.
in the hey day of online poker i would sometimes register for a sit and go when i had to do something like grocery shopping, get home and find that i was in the money despite having been blinding out.
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08-14-2018 , 02:42 PM
Cant agree with you more, but I also understand the need to try and meet the tournament guarantee. During the last WSOP circuit event at Planet Hollywood a guy who busted the main event final table was able to late register Day 2 of the high roller and ended up winning it. I just noticed a tourney online yesterday that allowed 5 hours late reg with a starting stack of 5 bigs, I know 5 hours is pretty normal on this site but why people will still enter with only 5 bigs is crazy IMO.
ICM, Unfair Advantage for Late Register and PokerStars problem Quote
08-14-2018 , 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
OP seems to be forgetting that, if he plays from the start, that his chip stack is not going to stay static. Why cry about someone gaining $3 in EV by late regging if your EV increases by $10 by beating up on the donks in the early levels?

Then again, I think in that example most people would give up $7 of EV to avoid playing an extra couple of hours of a donkament
The important here is that both players are not in same situation. It is like give 1-2 points to one team in a basketball game by the face

Quote:
Originally Posted by robert_utk
Ferguson did this the entire WSOP and won player of the year. It’s not about an ICM loophole, it’s about increasing the number of tourneys you can participate in, while sacrificing a little EV. The first several hours (or an entire day) can be spent making money doing something else, and you still get a fair chance to cash or win the tournament anyway.

Anyway, how is this a problem for PokerStars or any poker venue? Sounds like OP regrets that way more money gets into the prize pool? How does any of this in any way reduce the ROI of any other player?
I mean about how they solved the problem that happened last weekend. 2 players receive more money that if they would have won the tournament. More clear I canŽt be

Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
Ferguson's strategy probably isn't particularly +EV in terms of money expectation. He gains a bit of an ICM advantage, but because the mincash in the WSOP is now so small, he would probably be better off trying to build a stack earlier in the tournament to potentially run deep if he only cared about money.

But because of the way POY points have been distributed the last couple years, max late regging is a -huge- advantage in terms of POY maximization. I think there were situations where a mincash earned like half the points that someone winning 10x the money got. So just trying to slip into the money in every possible situation, while not actually profitable, is by far the easiest way to get POY.
Sometimes players interest is not just money; here we can see that can be POY points.

If a person is rich maybe it is just interested in cashes. Phil Hellmuth can be in bracelets , probably for a woman that is playing the WSOP can be life changing if she ends in 9th place (therefore in Final Table) than in 10th place final table bubble); or even for a man in a small country with poker is emerging. Also, the WSOP Heads Up has more than the money difference between the winner and the runner-up

Quote:
Originally Posted by borg23
in the hey day of online poker i would sometimes register for a sit and go when i had to do something like grocery shopping, get home and find that i was in the money despite having been blinding out.
This is another problem that causes late register.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick408
Cant agree with you more, but I also understand the need to try and meet the tournament guarantee. During the last WSOP circuit event at Planet Hollywood a guy who busted the main event final table was able to late register Day 2 of the high roller and ended up winning it. I just noticed a tourney online yesterday that allowed 5 hours late reg with a starting stack of 5 bigs, I know 5 hours is pretty normal on this site but why people will still enter with only 5 bigs is crazy IMO.

Well, it would be EV+ enters close to the bubble, even with not many BB.
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08-14-2018 , 05:27 PM
Calculatingly late regging can definitely gain an advantage and there will be an exact time of late regging sweet spot.
(but there's a sweet spot in many things. e.g. what time to arrive in a supermarket to get big discounts; which train to catch to just miss the rush hour and get a seat)

Other advantages are a better hourly ROI, and being less tired than your opponents.

But there are potential negatives such as a stronger remaining field to play. Also when playing shallow you can be equity forced into making plays that have a tiny or no edge.
ICM, Unfair Advantage for Late Register and PokerStars problem Quote
08-14-2018 , 07:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SageDonkey
Calculatingly late regging can definitely gain an advantage and there will be an exact time of late regging sweet spot.
(but there's a sweet spot in many things. e.g. what time to arrive in a supermarket to get big discounts; which train to catch to just miss the rush hour and get a seat)

Other advantages are a better hourly ROI, and being less tired than your opponents.

But there are potential negatives such as a stronger remaining field to play. Also when playing shallow you can be equity forced into making plays that have a tiny or no edge.
The point is that I remarked earlier in the post. IŽm not talking about playing strategies, that then you are right. IŽm talking to the Tournament directors, that they are giving an unfair advantage to late register players.

Of course, as a strategy , it is just to adjust to this. If there is more ICM just to register later, then register later. If it is a turbo, then player levels will change not so much in later stages, less that if tournament is so deep (when the field will be stronger later), and then there are strategic decisions

But the idea with this post it was precisely this, as a poker authority
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08-14-2018 , 08:08 PM
Yeah I don't give a crap if someone who late registers has an edge on me from that point on if I was there in the beginning catching all the donks that were slinging feces at each other and already doubled up my stack.
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08-14-2018 , 09:21 PM
Problem being:

1.Majority of chips to be made comes from bad players or standard situations that happen to go your way

2.The edge gained late regging seldom outweighs the edge gained actually playing these players

3.Late regging assumes you have perfectly designed ranges that you know very well and thus won't make mistakes short stacked (not the case for many players)

Ultimately, what you're describing really boils down to:

If you're a crusher, it's never -ev to reg 99.9% of tournies.

However in reality, late regging is a bad idea for most because:

1.They're not crushers

2.They don't know how to play a perfect short stack game

3.Even break even players (meaning that they're slightly beating the game), their edges would be diminished being a short stack and many of the worst players being eliminated, so how many players are we eliminating so far from the late reg pool, 90%+ at least?
ICM, Unfair Advantage for Late Register and PokerStars problem Quote
08-14-2018 , 09:35 PM
Think its fine for micro mtts

Still plenty of bad players left close to ITM to double up. I would not do it for $50 and above mtts tho
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08-14-2018 , 10:13 PM
Out of interest, can you tell us OP how long you have been playing poker?

Because it would be good to know if we are all responding to a relative newcomer or to an experienced player.

Thank you.
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08-14-2018 , 10:55 PM
The bad players are gone argument is diminished for limit games which are still a big part of the WSOP.
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08-14-2018 , 11:08 PM
Another negative of late regging is you're giving yourself less time to profile opponents, their playing styles and tendencies, weaknesses and strengths.

If there are short stack specialists that habitually late reg comps to gain a small added ICM and to then realise their edge, then the solution is for us to improve our own short stack game. Like most things in poker, having the ability to adapt is crucial.

Same applies to re-entry comps (which I think are way more of a problem), you've got to factor into your decisions if your opponent is on a multi bullet strategy.
ICM, Unfair Advantage for Late Register and PokerStars problem Quote
08-15-2018 , 07:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7OAD
Problem being:

1.Majority of chips to be made comes from bad players or standard situations that happen to go your way

2.The edge gained late regging seldom outweighs the edge gained actually playing these players

3.Late regging assumes you have perfectly designed ranges that you know very well and thus won't make mistakes short stacked (not the case for many players)

Ultimately, what you're describing really boils down to:

If you're a crusher, it's never -ev to reg 99.9% of tournies.

However in reality, late regging is a bad idea for most because:

1.They're not crushers

2.They don't know how to play a perfect short stack game

3.Even break even players (meaning that they're slightly beating the game), their edges would be diminished being a short stack and many of the worst players being eliminated, so how many players are we eliminating so far from the late reg pool, 90%+ at least?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Colin_Piddle
Think its fine for micro mtts

Still plenty of bad players left close to ITM to double up. I would not do it for $50 and above mtts tho
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
The bad players are gone argument is diminished for limit games which are still a big part of the WSOP.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SageDonkey
Another negative of late regging is you're giving yourself less time to profile opponents, their playing styles and tendencies, weaknesses and strengths.

If there are short stack specialists that habitually late reg comps to gain a small added ICM and to then realise their edge, then the solution is for us to improve our own short stack game. Like most things in poker, having the ability to adapt is crucial.

Same applies to re-entry comps (which I think are way more of a problem), you've got to factor into your decisions if your opponent is on a multi bullet strategy.
Yep, all of you are analizing it since the view of a poker player. That is ok.

-Pros of register at 1st level

a) Easy field in average
b) Deeper stacks
c) Time to know opponents
...

-Pros in late register

a) Slightly better ICM
b) If you consider yourself not better than field
...

And then you make a strategic decision. That is ok. I agree with all of you

But this post was focused to TD, casino authorities,even TDA. Why a late register can receive more money in chips unfairly? That is my point

Sure that as a player can have negative points, even with this 1-2% average gain in ICM; but a TD should not allow this ICM gain if it is not in the table

Quote:
Originally Posted by SageDonkey
Out of interest, can you tell us OP how long you have been playing poker?

Because it would be good to know if we are all responding to a relative newcomer or to an experienced player.

Thank you.
Over a decade, probably 15 years (HoldŽEm). In my country was very popular 5-Draw and this one since I was child, but tournaments since probably 13-15 years

I have some small cashes in European Poker Tour Main Event (I was eliminated in TV Table, in fact) and in WSOP tournaments (even one in PLO8, that in my country I guess only 3-4 players clinch one). I played also WSOP Main Event 3 times, 2008-09-12, but I havenŽt reached money in any on them , unfortunetaly
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08-15-2018 , 12:14 PM
What do you mean, that late register receives more money in chips unfairly?

Are you saying that late register receives a 5k stack when starting stacks were originally 4k?

Or, are you still complaining about the ICM value of the late entrant versus the early entrant?
ICM, Unfair Advantage for Late Register and PokerStars problem Quote
08-15-2018 , 12:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
because of the way POY points have been distributed the last couple years, max late regging is a -huge- advantage in terms of POY maximization. I think there were situations where a mincash earned like half the points that someone winning 10x the money got. So just trying to slip into the money in every possible situation, while not actually profitable, is by far the easiest way to get POY.
Sounds like a great way to get a bunch of ******s to buy in to 50 tournaments they mostly can't win.
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