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Old 01-10-2019, 02:24 PM   #1
BigStack650
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How many poker pros are really out there?

What % of people who played professionally say 10 years ago are still at it today?

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Old 01-10-2019, 02:27 PM   #2
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigStack650 View Post
What % of people who played professionally say 10 years ago are still at it today?

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Less than 100%, more than 0%.

and what % drive the same Subaru today ?
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Old 01-10-2019, 02:58 PM   #3
Cosines11
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

You can put me in the "not pro" category. Let me know when you get all of the responses back, OP!
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Old 01-10-2019, 03:07 PM   #4
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

The question should be in 2 parts imo:

1) What % of poker pros are still playing poker, regardless of the format?

2) What % of poker pros are still playing the same variant they were playing as a pro 10-15 years ago?

Many pros have switched games. The juicy games are live now, not online. Some online pros have switched to PLO, 8-game and MTTs instead of NLHE cash.


If we take the % of online pros from 10 years ago who are still grinding today, I'd put the % as very small. Under 5% for sure. Probably less than 1%. Black Friday killed off a bunch of them, other bit of regulation killed off more, solvers killed off even more, then the rakeback changes on Pokerstars was the final nail in the coffin for pretty much all the rest of them.
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Old 01-10-2019, 08:31 PM   #5
delfins
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

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Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound View Post
If we take the % of online pros from 10 years ago who are still grinding today, I'd put the % as very small. Under 5% for sure. Probably less than 1%. Black Friday killed off a bunch of them, other bit of regulation killed off more, solvers killed off even more, then the rakeback changes on Pokerstars was the final nail in the coffin for pretty much all the rest of them.
Have to think there is huge difference between countries.
In cheap eastern Europe countries people who was playing full time surviving 5-10 years even with all theses events have to be way way higher then in countries where living costs is minimum 1k-2k+/month.
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Old 01-10-2019, 08:45 PM   #6
timmay28
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

3.50%, I’ve done the maths
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Old 01-10-2019, 10:15 PM   #7
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

all pros are crazy to some extent
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Old 01-10-2019, 11:29 PM   #8
seat
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

There's a huge paradox involved in poker. You have to be an idiot to pursue poker as a career but at the same time you cannot be an idiot in order to succeed at poker.

Basically my answer is : not many.
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Old 01-10-2019, 11:48 PM   #9
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

i am not
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Old 01-11-2019, 12:01 AM   #10
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

all of them
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Old 01-11-2019, 05:13 PM   #11
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

I was playing professionally ten years ago. I am playing professionally now.

There was a three-year hiatus in which I wasn't playing professionally.
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Old 01-12-2019, 04:51 AM   #12
Lemon93PCTSure
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

nobody plays professionally, it's gambling, you can only get lucky and need a respectable job on the side long run
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Old 01-12-2019, 07:54 AM   #13
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

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nobody plays professionally, it's gambling, you can only get lucky and need a respectable job on the side long run
lol wut
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Old 01-12-2019, 08:19 AM   #14
namisgr11
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

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Originally Posted by BigStack650 View Post
What % of people who played professionally say 10 years ago are still at it today?

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So do you want to know how many pros there are, or some percentage of their longevity as pros?
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Old 01-12-2019, 10:30 AM   #15
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

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Originally Posted by namisgr11 View Post
So do you want to know how many pros there are, or some percentage of their longevity as pros?
Both

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Old 01-12-2019, 12:18 PM   #16
pewpewrobot
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

my guess for the live ecosystem would be
0.5 per 1/3 table and below
2 per 2/5 table
4 per 5/10 table and above
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Old 01-12-2019, 12:55 PM   #17
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

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Originally Posted by pewpewrobot View Post
my guess for the live ecosystem would be
0.5 per 1/3 table and below
2 per 2/5 table
4 per 5/10 table and above
O.5, 2, and 4 what?

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Old 01-12-2019, 01:31 PM   #18
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

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Originally Posted by pewpewrobot View Post
my guess for the live ecosystem would be
0.5 per 1/3 table and below
2 per 2/5 table
4 per 5/10 table and above
finally some actual analysis on the meaningless but moderately interesting question.

Building on your estimates (which I think are pretty close).

lets take USA first since only data I could find

https://www.worldcasinodirectory.com/united-states/poker-rooms

6,000 poker tables in US.

Lets say 1/4 of them are running on average during a 24 hour day

So 1500 tables going. 85% of them are 1-3 , 10% of them are 2/5, 5% of them are 5/10

Thus , these are number of pro players at those tables.

1500 tables x .85 x .5 = 637 1/3 pro players

1500 x .10 x 2 = 300 2/5 pro players

1500 x .05 x 4 = 300 5/10 pro players

So, there are around 1,237 live poker pros in US

I dont have global data but from what I rem from data I did have about 5 years ago there another 3,000 poker tables ROW

so add another 600 pro's for rest of world

So, there are around 1,837 live poker pros worldwide.


p.s Variables in bold ymmv. adjusts any of those but this is good model to get close to answer OP seeks (but dont know why)
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Old 01-12-2019, 02:52 PM   #19
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

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Originally Posted by PTLou View Post
finally some actual analysis on the meaningless but moderately interesting question.

Building on your estimates (which I think are pretty close).

lets take USA first since only data I could find

https://www.worldcasinodirectory.com/united-states/poker-rooms

6,000 poker tables in US.

Lets say 1/4 of them are running on average during a 24 hour day

So 1500 tables going. 85% of them are 1-3 , 10% of them are 2/5, 5% of them are 5/10

Thus , these are number of pro players at those tables.

1500 tables x .85 x .5 = 637 1/3 pro players

1500 x .10 x 2 = 300 2/5 pro players

1500 x .05 x 4 = 300 5/10 pro players

So, there are around 1,237 live poker pros in US

I dont have global data but from what I rem from data I did have about 5 years ago there another 3,000 poker tables ROW

so add another 600 pro's for rest of world

So, there are around 1,837 live poker pros worldwide.


p.s Variables in bold ymmv. adjusts any of those but this is good model to get close to answer OP seeks (but dont know why)
This cannot be accurate. DUCY?

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Old 01-12-2019, 03:10 PM   #20
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

There are a no. of flaws there, first it only acounts for PPros that are actually playing (and not on the waitlist, rail, off, shopping groceries, sleeping, holiday etc. ).
Also whether the no. of tables are even remotely correct there could be subject of debate as well as other initial assumptions such as the no. certain players on a certain table. Many pro's prolly mostly play in private games also.
But as a starting point for discussion there is some merit in these numbers
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Old 01-12-2019, 08:39 PM   #21
PTLou
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

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Originally Posted by FWWM View Post
There are a no. of flaws there, first it only acounts for PPros that are actually playing (and not on the waitlist, rail, off, shopping groceries, sleeping, holiday etc. ).
woops. good point. so my estimate is low by pretty large factor ?



Quote:
Also whether the no. of tables are even remotely correct
Table count is better than remotely correct.

US table count is pretty close. ROW table count is a swag. but I had the actual number several years ago, and it was ~ 50% of US.

__________


New Estimate based on flaw you noted. I'll assume at any time 35% of pros are actually playing


Revised estimate.... 5,248 live poker pros worldwide .

Given all the assumptions, probably better to say the range is between 4,000 and 8,000.

Still dont know why it matters.


Quote:
Originally Posted by BigStack650 View Post
This cannot be accurate. DUCY?
If you are referring to flaw FWWM noted then yes, I see why.

Other than that, no I dont see why.
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Old 01-12-2019, 09:32 PM   #22
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

It depends.
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Old 01-12-2019, 09:38 PM   #23
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

I'd argue that there are wayyyy less pros than the number of people who claim to be. Just because you play a game a lot and want it to be for a living doesn't mean you are a professional. You've got to be successful, independent, play for meaningful stakes and have a sample size that proves that you aren't just on a heater (which is wayyyyy bigger than most people realise).

If You've been broke for years, live near the bread line, or binked the sunday million and have no other results but claim to be a pro you're very wrong. I'd guess that less than 20% of people who claim to be full time actually qualify for this. There are a fair few amateur enthusiasts that are a lot better than many so called pros.

Just my opinion though.
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Old 01-12-2019, 09:45 PM   #24
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

I wasnt thinking much about how you define a pro.

Just assumed it was the obvious definition.

A poker pro is someone who derives all or a majority of their income from playing poker. there is an entire thread on that topic now in NVG.
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Old 01-12-2019, 11:22 PM   #25
AlanBostick
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Re: How many poker pros are really out there?

If I painted houses for a living, and saved up money and put it away, eventually my savings should be generating a significant part of my annual income. Would I then not be a professional house painter?

I say a person (residing in the United States) is a professional poker player if they report their poker income on Schedule C.
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