Quote:
Originally Posted by fragglestickcar
I know this is ancient history BUT:
Why is the QQ fold abominable? Frankenberger put Timoshenko on AA. Frankenberger's QQ is a 17% underdog. So he needs 449,000 in the pot to make it even EV. There's 527,000 in the pot, fine, but when was it "insanely stupid" to reject an 83% likelihood of busting for a measly 13k of EV (527k * .17 - 92k * .83). Folding leaves him 15bb, which is viable.
Sexton's remark that even "a deuce and a 3" requires a call seems out of line, even if we only cared about EV. Against a pocket pair like KK or AA, the hand 23o would barely be zero EV in this particular instance (we know now that Timo only held AK, but Frankenberger was pretty convinced of AA, and I don't blame the guy).
Someone else can work out the ICM details but I for one am always willing to throw away EV if I'm more than 80% likely to bust out.
I don't remember the situation and I'm too lazy/occupied right now to find the video, but the bolded part is where most people would take issue. Putting an opponent on exactly one specific hand strikes me as a mistake, unless you have Travis Makar and Russ Hamilton texting you info from the rail.
Now, if he narrowed the range to, say, JJ+/AK, and further weighted the likelihood of Timoshenko holding AA specifically to a substantial percentage, then his thought process would be more acceptable. Not everyone would agree with that assigned range, but at least the thinking would be pokerish.
Also, helluva bump.
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Quote:
Sexton's remark that even "a deuce and a 3" requires a call seems out of line, even if we only cared about EV. Against a pocket pair like KK or AA, the hand 23o would barely be zero EV in this particular instance (we know now that Timo only held AK, but Frankenberger was pretty convinced of AA, and I don't blame the guy).
For what it's worth, 23 would have about 12-13 percent equity against AA and slightly better against KK. Again, can't remember the hand, but if Frankenberger is getting the right odds (even with ICM considered), he could see Timo flash AA and still be correct to call with 23.