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Highest Possible Main Event ROI

View Poll Results: Highest Possible Main Event ROI

1.5-2

34 22.97%

2-2.5

26 17.57%

2.5-3

20 13.51%

3-3.5

12 8.11%

3.5-4

9 6.08%

4-5

8 5.41%

39 26.35%

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11-05-2021 , 04:33 PM

#51

ment52

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 2,092

I'm not sure a superuser would be able to get 600% roi

Quote

11-05-2021 , 04:48 PM

#52

Reggie Steer

banned

Join Date: May 2021 Posts: 1,939

Exploitative people readers and influencers probably beat frequency based gto-ers in WSOP Main Event roi even though they wouldn't stand a chance in the small field super high rollers.

The highest possible main event roi would probably be the ones that are 80% as good in the science as the gto nerds but also have live games white magic.

Adelstein...Adamo...Seidel...Berkey etc.

There are too many live read opportunities in live games to ignore. Also lots of exploitable mistakes.

Quote

11-05-2021 , 05:22 PM

#53

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,096

Quote:

Originally Posted by ment52

I'm not sure a superuser would be able to get 600% roi

A smart player, not worried about getting caught, who can see everyone's cards? Its more like 60,000%. If I could see just one of the two cards on my right every time my ROI would be well over 1000%. (Keep in mind that with that edge you keep most pots small and fold all all in close decisions.)
Unfortunately I think more players than we realize actually have edges like these.

Quote

11-05-2021 , 08:41 PM

#54

pmarrsouth

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 4,123

People do completely freeroll into the WSOP ME, inc expenses for the week...

Quote

11-06-2021 , 01:44 AM

#55

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,161

Looks like the clash of two people with deep pockets and wildly different opinions on the subject is happening (Timex and Lynne)

Quote

11-06-2021 , 07:29 PM

#56

super_dave31

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,223

Just to check I’m not confusing the situation

When people like Adamo say for example 5.0. Is that saying if I want 10% of Addamos main event, I have to pay $5,000 for a $1,000 share?

Orrr.. is it just saying that Adamo will win 5x his buy ins? So if he buys into 100k of Torny, he will win at least half a mill?

As for that Lynn lady.. where t.f has she got her money?

Quote

11-06-2021 , 08:36 PM

#57

Dreamer

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 668

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loctus

Looks like the clash of two people with deep pockets and wildly different opinions on the subject is happening (Timex and Lynne)

As mentioned I still think the poll needs a 1.5 or less.

The fact that people think these values are actually realistic makes me realize there are a lot of unsophisticated gamblers/investors out there.

Quote

11-07-2021 , 05:42 AM

#58

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,161

Quote:

Originally Posted by super_dave31

Just to check I’m not confusing the situation

When people like Adamo say for example 5.0. Is that saying if I want 10% of Addamos main event, I have to pay $5,000 for a $1,000 share?

Orrr.. is it just saying that Adamo will win 5x his buy ins? So if he buys into 100k of Torny, he will win at least half a mill?

As for that Lynn lady.. where t.f has she got her money?

The bolded part is correct

The 2nd part is technically the same thing (when you average it out ofc)

Quote

11-07-2021 , 07:58 AM

#59

DownandUnder

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 164

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

Maybe I’m missing something here can you please explain how seeing an extra card is such an advantage

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

11-07-2021 , 02:14 PM

#60

super_dave31

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,223

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loctus

The bolded part is correct

The 2nd part is technically the same thing (when you average it out ofc)

Ty

Must be nice to free roll tournaments!

or even be paid to go into them! Personally, I just don’t think any player is worth 5.0 even Adamo. Too much variance in this game, and how many times have we seen these heaters before?

Quote

11-07-2021 , 06:18 PM

#61

getmeoffcompletely

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 1,670

500% is so far off the mark it's closing in on parody.

Quote

11-07-2021 , 06:40 PM

#62

getmeoffcompletely

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 1,670

Quote:

Originally Posted by TreadLightly

Lynne (live reg who was on highstakes poker some this year?) seems to be selling a bunch of regs at 3.6ish in the comments, some 'crushers' at 4+ and seems to be wanting to bet massive on selling with what she thinks are good odds in her favour I assume

She (and anyone else who is selling regs at 3.0+) is getting away with daylight robbery. But hey, if people are willing to buy who am I to judge.

Quote

11-08-2021 , 02:53 AM

#63

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,096

Quote:

Originally Posted by DownandUnder

Maybe I’m missing something here can you please explain how seeing an extra card is such an advantage

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Its not the card. Its seeing half his hand when he plays.

Quote

11-08-2021 , 03:44 AM

#64

yasuo

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 2,105

imagine shorting tournament actions at 1000%...poker players really like to remind people how big of a degenerate they are lol

Quote

11-08-2021 , 06:17 AM

#65

Reggie Steer

banned

Join Date: May 2021 Posts: 1,939

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

Its not the card. Its seeing half his hand when he plays.

At the 1-3 and 2-5 levels people expose one or even two of their cards many times.

Assuming that a player exposes one of his cards all of the time, would you rather have that player on your left or on your right? Why? And how to exploit?

Quote

11-13-2021 , 06:16 PM

#66

Dreamer

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 668

So how well have all those asking ridiculous markups done so far at the WSOP?

Quote

12-16-2021 , 12:15 PM

#67

KL03

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,407

Yeah, any update on the big action? Did lynne take everyones money or does she owe 8 figures? I tried looking, but I am bad at this tweeter thing.

Quote

12-16-2021 , 07:51 PM

#68

PhatPots

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 3,934

Quote:

Originally Posted by fast11375

I believe this is how the 2009 Financial Crisis started

LOL

Quote

12-17-2021 , 06:51 AM

#69

spaceman Bryce

anything you guys want

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 20,646

Ryan is awesome.

Quote

12-18-2021 , 02:33 AM

#70

Bozo7

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 537

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dreamer

As mentioned I still think the poll needs a 1.5 or less.

+1 People way overestimate edges in donkaments

Quote

11-24-2023 , 05:01 AM

#71

MTTg

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2023 Posts: 19

Wtf some players and even pros seriously think 200-500% ROI is possible???

Ike Haxton one of the best NLH players today estimates he would be easily in top100 performer of the main event field and and he would have ~30% ROI. He says that there are some pros who have different opinion and believe they could have 50% ROI which could be possible.

So if one of the best NLH player tells us it's 30% maybe 50% at best, how anyone could even think it would be 100% let alone 200, 300 400%???? Lol dunning kruger is strong

Quote

11-24-2023 , 07:57 AM

#72

H.O.R.S.E.

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2023 Posts: 267

Imagine thinking PH has an ROI < 200%.

Quote

11-26-2023 , 09:08 AM

#73

Kebabkungen

adept

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 1,074

Lol at the results of this poll. Also lol at the smallest option being 1.5 - 2.0

Quote

11-26-2023 , 12:08 PM

#74

IhateJJ

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 460

The results of this poll is the exact reason poker survives.

To further explain the delusional mind of the poker universe, go to any casino and conduct the following experiment.

In any 9 handed cash game, have all the players at the table write down on a piece of paper how they would rank themselves in the game in terms of skill from 1 to 9, with 1 being the best player in the game and 9 being the worst. Collect all the paper. I suspect you will never find a piece of paper with a 6, 7, 8 or 9 written on it.