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Highest Possible Main Event ROI

View Poll Results: Highest Possible Main Event ROI

1.5-2

34 22.97%

2-2.5

26 17.57%

2.5-3

20 13.51%

3-3.5

12 8.11%

3.5-4

9 6.08%

4-5

8 5.41%

39 26.35%

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11-01-2021 , 12:30 PM

#26

smoothcriminal99

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 1,537

brewers bet is deceptive because distributions of winnings have a very long tail... would take way more then 50 sample size to create a normal distribution

That being said the reason why people cant bet against markup is cause no1 really wants to risk 10,000x without a pretty big vig... except maybe timex. I would book adamo or anyone @ 5x if there was a cap on the payout or created some way to cut the tail

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11-01-2021 , 01:00 PM

#27

iwasbanned

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 4,049

Does a 5X return involve finishing in the top 3% year in and year out ?

I doubt someone could finish in the top 20% over a lifetime.

Hellmuth has more than 3 decades of playing the WSOP Main Event.

I doubt his average is a top 25% finish.

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11-01-2021 , 01:41 PM

#28

pmarrsouth

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 4,123

Highest possible ROI is infinite, I hope you see why

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11-01-2021 , 01:47 PM

#29

jamesisarobot

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 215

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmarrsouth

Highest possible ROI is infinite, I hope you see why

I think it's limited by the payout structure and number of entrants.

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11-01-2021 , 10:15 PM

#30

kimoser22

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 3,822

Quote:

Originally Posted by monikrazy

Top pros at >3 seems fine, the premium is for the optionality as stacks get deeper

Agree that buying anyone at 5 is high-risk, i'm sure like top 10-50 best tourney players in the world could be worth the price, but roi can't be too hicg.

Could just take top 20 on pokershares and give them all 5.0mu and see if the pool of 20 makes >1 dollar of profitÂ…

Just saw this was the Brewer bet except at 2.0…

Last edited by kimoser22; 11-01-2021 at 10:21 PM.

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11-02-2021 , 01:13 AM

#31

LuckyScum

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 301

Here's an interesting data point: around 1999 Phil Helmuth bought 20% of Erik Seidel for $10,000 in the main event. (He also bought me 20% of me for $2000.)

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11-02-2021 , 01:59 AM

#32

Deldar182

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,164

I have always wondered this - having ROI of 2.0 seems impossibly high lol, but I don't play tournaments. Could anyone who is actually good at poker speak to this? Is there a way to short people against crazy 400% ROIs?

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11-02-2021 , 02:35 AM

#33

GazzyB123

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 5,968

All I know is Matasuw’s 1.5 markup is outrageously high

Quote

11-02-2021 , 03:43 AM

#34

helloitslynne

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2021 Posts: 1

I want a bunch of people at 1.4-2.0 if someone here is willing to back up the Ike/Dominik statement about how rois are capped at 30%

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11-02-2021 , 06:14 AM

#35

RedOak

FUD

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 722

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discretion

Not a topic of huge discussion but Ryan Laplante posted on his twitter that he bought 6 pros at 5.0 (5.0!!!!) and thought that their ROI was even higher than that. In a response, Mike McDonald mentioned that the highest anyone was trading on pokershares was Michael Addamo at 4.6

https://twitter.com/Protentialmn/sta...04142093766667

What do you guys think? Is this just an attempt to inflate the earnings of tournament pros and try to sell his tourney classes? What is the highest possible main event ROI?

In a response, Lynne Ji mentioned she was willing to sell almost anyone at 4.5 but noticeably didn't want to sell Addamo (wanting 6.0).

https://twitter.com/helloitslynne/st...10933024276481

Study in 2010 showed top 720 pros had an ROI of 30% in the main event. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc...=rep1&type=pdf

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11-02-2021 , 06:19 AM

#36

RedOak

FUD

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 722

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reggie Steer

I'm not sure if it was Greg Raymer or Scotty Nguyen....but one of them said that he was 4 times better than the field. Even went on to say that if he had been playing in the Main Event every year since the time of Christ that he would win 4 times in 2,000 years.

I don't know how "4 times better than the field" would translate into ROI or markups.

Ike Haxton, speaking on Pokergo Run it Back, said that no one is above 28% in the Main Event.

4x better than the field translates to 117% ROI. 2x better than avg. is 41% ROI,and 3x better than avg. is 80% ROI.

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11-02-2021 , 06:21 AM

#37

Pokerpops

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 180

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedOak

Study in 2010 showed top 720 pros had an ROI of 30% in the main event. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc...=rep1&type=pdf

Our empirical findings suggest a substantial role for skill in poker over the time horizon examined. The 720 players identified a priori as being high skilled generate an average ROI of 30.5% in the 2010 WSOP, reaping an average profit of over $1,200 per player per event.

The 30% is across all WSOP events, not just the ME.

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11-02-2021 , 07:51 AM

#38

Bizeeey

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 125

720 sample size lol

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11-02-2021 , 03:43 PM

#39

KL03

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,407

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loctus

Timex being willing to both sell and buy players at a not huge spread kind of gives the best answer there is. And while it obv isn't an actual objective answer, at least it's backed up by a market and their own money

So.. If their highest lines are 4.6-4.7, accounting for vig I guess they estimate the highest possible to be about 4-4.2ish?

Is timex really buying at 4x? If it was anyone else I'd be thinking easy money. I don't have the balls (or the money) to bet big, but I'm certainly interested.

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11-02-2021 , 05:15 PM

#40

smoothcriminal99

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 1,537

timex doesn't buy players... no one is posting 10million on pokershares to sell 10k of some1 (i guess 40k w/ markup). his lines are subsequently overpriced

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11-02-2021 , 06:15 PM

#41

TreadLightly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,710

Lynne (live reg who was on highstakes poker some this year?) seems to be selling a bunch of regs at 3.6ish in the comments, some 'crushers' at 4+ and seems to be wanting to bet massive on selling with what she thinks are good odds in her favour I assume

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11-02-2021 , 10:04 PM

#42

KL03

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,407

Quote:

I'm actually planning on booking 1000%, do you see a problem with that?

haha baller. I guess we know who wears the pants around here.

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11-03-2021 , 12:11 AM

#43

jamesisarobot

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 215

Yeah pretty baller

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11-03-2021 , 01:34 PM

#44

DiamondsOnMyNeck

adept

Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 1,022

Seems like a standard case of relatively successful mtt pro vastly underestimating the amount of variance/luck involved in tourney poker. He has a few millions in winnings and probably attributes it all to skill. Pretty standard poker player mentality, when you’re winning it’s all skill, when you’re losing it’s bad luck that never ends. Who knows if he’s even betting his own money. Could just be an attempt to go “viral” and promote the ole training site.

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11-03-2021 , 01:39 PM

#45

fast11375

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 2,740

I believe this is how the 2009 Financial Crisis started

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11-03-2021 , 07:58 PM

#46

9IronNightmare

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 97

600% seems about right for the highest possible ROI in the Main Event. But I personally don't know for sure which of the top tier pros would be most likely to make the never-ending exploitative adjustments necessary to hit 600% in that event, so I wouldn't estimate above 500% for anyone.

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11-04-2021 , 01:15 AM

#47

PerDoom

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,294

I've personally felt that most poker players way overestimate how much their skill advantage is in live poker. Yeah you'll see some play that is like -3bb/100 but you only see that like twice an hour. A poker pros bb/100 will certainly be higher live than online but the play is so much slower that the hourly winrate is probably only like 2* what their one tabling online winrate is instead of what most assume is like 20*.

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11-04-2021 , 03:11 AM

#48

borg23

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 15,049

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerDoom

you underestimate how good some live tables can be

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11-04-2021 , 03:55 AM

#49

GazzyB123

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 5,968

The odd -3bb play lmao

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11-05-2021 , 03:45 PM

#50

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,161

Didn't this Lynne absolutely punt on HSP? She may very well be rolled to short WSOP ME 1000% lol.

To me very interesting how wildly big the discrepancy is regarding some top pros on this subject. I mean Haxton saying it's <2.0 and then people who should be just as knowledgeable on the topic says it's like 5.

Some wild bets to be made there for sure

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