Hellmuth vs. Negreanu "High Stakes Duel 2" Confirmed - Page 3 - Poker News

Without knowing much about the structure: it is close to impossible for one player to be a bigger favorite over any other player by more than 3 to 2 in HU sng´s, assuming neither is new to the game. Long run score would most likely be in the 52%-57% range for the winning player, presumably Negreanu, with obviously some wild variance over small samples.

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03-03-2021 , 12:40 AM

#52

BEANO52

adept

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 1,031

Interesting "Name" Dnegs has for MJ Gonzales in his phone:

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03-03-2021 , 02:57 AM

#53

DrawingDonkey

adept

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 732

Quote:

Originally Posted by BEANO52

Interesting "Name" Dnegs has for MJ Gonzales in his phone:

Seems like the name of a group chat

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03-03-2021 , 04:11 AM

#54

SizzlerFTW

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,368

Cool interview. It's funny how Phill feels he's way ahead of the rest, yet when you follow the rules of the Hellmuth Universe, Negreanu has made the worst possible start dismissing Phils changes

Would be funny if he wins again.

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03-03-2021 , 07:58 AM

#55

NerdSuperfly

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,172

It's painful to listen to Hellmuth not understanding, what he doesn't understand ...

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03-03-2021 , 01:24 PM

#56

vrael111

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 2,949

Wow, the delusion is strong with that clown.
Thought he was going to cry towards the end of the interview.

I actually liked Negreanu in this one.

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03-03-2021 , 01:40 PM

#57

parisron

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 19,745

Can someone explain the Aria 25k schedule? For Phil to play Fifty 25k Aria tournaments, how long will that take? 5+ years?

How many of them per year are available and what is the average field size?

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03-04-2021 , 02:23 AM

#58

MatthewNL

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 370

Phil is delusional but he is going to win this challenge and Daniel is going to complain about how unlucky he was. Just like Daniel said he was the unluckiest player on High Stakes Poker and in the Doug Polk match.

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03-04-2021 , 08:20 AM

#59

omnishakira

High Troller

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 9,732

Quote:

Originally Posted by parisron

what a ****** lmao

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03-04-2021 , 11:36 AM

#60

Itachi1234

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 514

Quote:

Originally Posted by omnishakira

what a ****** lmao

what are the odds of phill hellmuth playing 50 25k high rollers in 10 lifetimes of phill hellmuth?
what a silly bet...........

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03-04-2021 , 11:57 AM

#61

inmyrav

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 1,719

The only problem I've had with PH is going after recs. I don't mind losing $10k but make me feel bad? Most days I don't care but I think he takes liberties with people and he's lucky he didn't find someone on a bad day.

You have no idea how crazy the person across from you really is.

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03-04-2021 , 11:59 AM

#62

ScotchOnDaRocks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 7,200

I don't get the bet, suppose Phil plays five 25Ks and has zero cashes, and then drags his feet in playing anymore.

Hellmuth can then get out of the bet sort of like in Seinfeld when Kramer decided he didn't want to build the Mediterranean levels in his apartment. Negreanu is sort of getting free-rolled.

Bet should have some type of timeframe, such as it's over when Aria has run at least 100 25Ks. So Phil is required to make half of them.

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03-04-2021 , 12:26 PM

#63

parisron

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 19,745

How many of these 25k's run there per year?

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03-04-2021 , 12:31 PM

#64

ihavethewheel

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 216

Is it just me or does the fact that they are playing tournament/sit and go style of poker take a ton of the excitement out of it? I really enjoyed the Polk/Dnegs challenge because it was spread across 25k hands where a substantial amount of money could be won or lost on any given day. Knowing that the losses are capped in this format waters it down a bit for me as the viewer.

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03-04-2021 , 02:39 PM

#65

Itachi1234

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 514

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScotchOnDaRocks

yes, so stupid bet without a time limit lol

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03-05-2021 , 01:54 AM

#66

Parsons Grinder

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 2,372

Quote:

Originally Posted by ihavethewheel

I feel the same for the reasons you quoted above and due to the fact that these things are not a representation of skill but really just who ran better on the day.

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03-05-2021 , 04:23 AM

#67

samooth

veteran

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 3,350

from zero to cringe in less than a minute

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03-05-2021 , 10:02 AM

#68

American Express

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 503

Quote:

Originally Posted by Itachi1234

yes, so stupid bet without a time limit lol

The bet should obv be that Hellmut pays Daniel $200k now and gets $600k if/when he has completed 50 tourneys with a profit.
Then he can take all the time in the world...

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03-05-2021 , 01:36 PM

#69

JamPirate

stranger

Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 13

Although good entertainment Dn for me came across as a bit of C***t in the interview . He gets more unlikeable every year .

PH game is a lot better than he gets credit for in a Sng format he will run over Dn IMO .

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03-05-2021 , 09:43 PM

#70

TheJacob

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 3,862

By my estimate you'd need an roi of ~-10% to be winning after 50 of these high rollers 1/3rd of the time. Your ROI can be even lower I'd assume if you alter your play to maximize the winning after 50 as opposed to maximizing ROI.

Last edited by TheJacob; 03-05-2021 at 09:53 PM.