Quote:
Originally Posted by Dima2000123
Charts show you the mathematically optimal solution, but they don't show you how much you're giving up by deviating from the optimal solution. Maybe one action is just slightly better than the other, but it also comes with much higher variance.
When you have two players who both think that they're clearly better, and that their per-hand edge is much greater than the premium they have to pay to reduce variance, you have this monstrosity we watched yesterday. It's not wrong to put some value on your tournament life even in a winner-takes-all SnG, if you think you're a better player. You can't just sit down for the next SnG with the same player immediately after if you get it in as a 50.1%-49.9% favorite against a fish.
Reducing variance is not the main reason to consider disobeying a push fold chart. Remember those charts tell you what hands to push or call with if the only alternative is to fold. But the push advice should be ignored if the hand ought to be more profitable if a limp or small raise figures to have a higher EV. Or if the hand is poor and you know that the opponent calls with hands weaker than the call chart says. The call advice should be ignored and you should fold slightly better hands than the chart says if you know the opponent need a much better hand to push than GTO recommendations. The converse would have you calling with some slightly worse hands than GTO.
Of course the deviations would apply almost exclusively to borderline hands especially when stacks are small. Were the hands exposed in this match? Surely, if they were, you would have recognized the above thinking processes in the two competitors would you not?
(The subject of keeping GTO in the back of your mind as you seek to exploit your opponent is addressed in detail in my new book The Theory of Poker Applied To No Limit.)