Hi mason,

You’re an ass.

Best wishes,
Haze

Hi Hazel:

Enjoy your vacation.

Mason

That's the main problem we have rn in America is that we can't see the atrocities, which are really being perpetrated and instead we use strawmen of every type for every situation. The Global Financial Crisis is the best example and you my friend highlighted what is really wrong with the situation.

By no means am I saying Goldman Sachs was the strawman in this situation, because they are certainly culpable. But who allowed these banks to be culpable? Who rated their bonds and sold them on global markets?

How can you claim I used a strawman in my post, but Goldman Sachs is not the strawman, when the entity that's mentioned in my post is Goldman Sachs Did you mean to say you feel like I'm twisting words? Unfortunately I do get seem to get that a decent amount


Maybe the larger lesson to come out of PH use of unreasonably high markups which he was touting as good investments is that when it comes to putting money on anything where return involves risk, it's important for all of us to do our homework - ALL of us. And when you start thinking you're too smart to get duped, is when we open the door to the possibility of losing huge sums of money on ETFs that all the experts assure everybody are safe, or crypto when John McAfee assures everybody that it's headed to $100k.

Does the government only offer bailouts in the event of a bank bankruptcies? And only up to a certain amount, which isn't super high if you've been an active investor. So really to an extent we're all on our own.

I don't think the analogy works because you are talking about people with superior knowledge deliberately defrauding the people they are selling to.

Nothing I have seen or heard from Hellmuth makes me think he can accurately evaluate the poker skill or his opponents or himself. Everything I hear him say suggests he has earnestly deluded himself into thinking that he is the best player in the world. I certainly wouldn't invest in him at anything close to this mark-up, but calling something a scam requires -some- evidence of intent.

See I don't think it really matters if its a scam (not my language) or just ignorance/delusion on Hellmuth's part. Its bull**** and should be called out either way.

Also I don't think anyone is arguing Hellmuth needs to accurately set his price, just not have it be stupidly unrealistic. Even for the actual best player in the world 1.8 markup is a ripoff to the stakers.

How much did Phil make investors with his 15th bracelet scam?

serious question.

the market determines price

everyone salty about 1.8 markup would take it if there was that much demand for them.

hellmuth played under 40 events mostly lowrollers so if you booked a full package at 1.8 markup it would've been a nicely profitable bet. haters btfo

a lot of ppl calling him unprofessional won't even be playing in 5 years lets talk about who is professional then

Is hellmuth playing the 1 drop? If so, whats the markup?

Word on the street is that the price to get 100% of him is bigger than first place money.

As an ego thing and because he markets himself as the best player, I think he has to ensure that his markup is higher than anyone else's, even if he is not the most profitable player (and I think he is a winning poker player). Whatever the highest markup was out there before, Hellmuth should probably sell at .1 or .2 higher for the sake of his brand.

What happened to Hellmuth's PPC buy in?

You guys still think this thread should be a thing after the preposterous 4.0 markups offered for the Main Event on pokershares for some people?

The 4.0s were too high. My thoughts on such high premiums from a mathematical standpoint are here https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...0&postcount=55

Other things to add regarding ~4.0 MUs is that the seller is selling (taking on) what is called in financial markets, "tail risk", as shown here http://lionscrestcapital.com/tail-risk.html

That is to say that a player's one off tournament result can reach the far point of the tail causing an extreme result well away from their expected result, which can obviously happen in a huge field.

E.g. Adrian Mateos is probably really worth ~2.8 (an expectation of cashing on average for $28,000 in the ME) but the "tail" extreme result is $8.8M, so Pokershares are marking his price up to 4.0 for assuming the extra tail risk.

(Because it is impossible for Pokershares to sell a decent proportion of the field for a huge number of runners event they will be adding "tail" premium to virtually all players MUs)

There is also a demand and scarcity factor being that Pokershares only have buyers and where else can someone buy a piece of Mateos in the ME?

The above does not apply to PH in the context of this thread as Pokershares are/were offering him cheaper than he is offering himself, so this thread is still valid, although obviously well played to him and congrats on his 15th bracelet.

Still digging through the posts for opinions about the math, but my usual limit is 1.3 for the best players and the best tournaments for their style of play. It would take a rare circumstance to get me to 1.35, and never 1.4 or higher, ever. Even for Phil.

What is everyone's take on the practical limits of markup no matter who the player?

Some players are genuinely worth up into the mid to high twos in fields where there are a significant number of players whose real value is between 0.5 and 0.7.

A lot of live non pro MTT players will have a long term ROI of minus 0.3 to minus 0.5.
0.1 of their minus ROI is going to the house and the other 0.2 to 0.4 to players such as Adrian Mateos.

Not ever paying more than 1.4 is sensible but in fields with a big spectrum of playing ability some of the top players are worth paying ~2.0 for.

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