Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon93PCTSure
You guys still think this thread should be a thing after the preposterous 4.0 markups offered for the Main Event on pokershares for some people?
The 4.0s were too high. My thoughts on such high premiums from a mathematical standpoint are here
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...0&postcount=55
Other things to add regarding ~4.0 MUs is that the seller is selling (taking on) what is called in financial markets, "tail risk", as shown here
http://lionscrestcapital.com/tail-risk.html
That is to say that a player's one off tournament result can reach the far point of the tail causing an extreme result well away from their expected result, which can obviously happen in a huge field.
E.g. Adrian Mateos is probably really worth ~2.8 (an expectation of cashing on average for $28,000 in the ME) but the "tail" extreme result is $8.8M, so Pokershares are marking his price up to 4.0 for assuming the extra tail risk.
(Because it is impossible for Pokershares to sell a decent proportion of the field for a huge number of runners event they will be adding "tail" premium to virtually all players MUs)
There is also a demand and scarcity factor being that Pokershares only have buyers and where else can someone buy a piece of Mateos in the ME?
The above does not apply to PH in the context of this thread as Pokershares are/were offering him cheaper than he is offering himself, so this thread is still valid, although obviously well played to him and congrats on his 15th bracelet.