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03-28-2015 , 01:18 AM
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Originally Posted by uradoodooface
Where all does he have this performing? If it's just Vegas I can see a huge decline in profit since 08 but if other places I don't see why it would be such a hard sell even with declining profits unless it's just stagnant business which this seems like not that type of case.
I saw Totem in an Ottawa parking lot a few years ago so I'm guessing they tour all over the world.
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03-29-2015 , 03:53 PM
so many assumptions...

but my opinion is that if guy keeps it that it will be tough. i think it will even tougher for a new owner.

wonder if private equity people would be enthusiastic about it.... this is very "cultural" business. how would financial owners affect employee morale? (which would probably be transparent to spectator at performance). my guess is they don't like buying 1 man show private companies either. so dependent on entrepeneur and so many important things can be screwed up and some not fixable.

i saw an wsj article that cirque cracked a billion US$ revenue. and net income of $250M (from memory). net income sounds high, so i'd assume it's pre-tax. so say $180M after-tax (and Guy lays claim to most of that)

but of that $180MM, i assume a ton goes to capex. not a huge cap exp business but expanding from 5 shows to 15 (or whatever the number) must cost a ton of money.

i think guy bought out other partners not that long ago. so presumably he'd have bank debt that financed those buyouts.

so i'd assume that capex and bank interest eats alot of $180MM.....

how then do rich guys with private companies live the very rich lifestyle? i assume he borrows against his equity.

i think you find that when very wealthy entrepeneurs main business gets in trouble that that business is much higher % of net worth than you would think.... it's not like guy has $600-$700MM outside his cirque holding. only a guess but i think a good one.

the quebec angle is interesting..... quebec govt investing is legendary for being horrible. up there with the japanese of the 1990's..... i think quebec getting involved is political but i also think it's the only way guy gets a decent price.

fyi for a few questions.............. cirque has been in vegas and touring for a long time i think. i remember temporary tent shows quite a few years ago.... but now cirque has major presences in 1) vegas 2) non-vegas permanent sites; 3) touring. and i think they've expanded all of them in the last 5 to 10 years.

my opinion, and from reading alot of internet comments, is that there's spending fatigue for cirque. people that have been 2-3 times don't feel a compelling need to go again. all kinds of other things you want to spend money on... surprised in fact that the spending fatigue didn't happen long ago.

completely unrelated to cirque, but i think something like lululemon has spending fatigue/competition. once women 40 and under have a few lulu outfits they love then they want to spend money on clothes, boots, travel, cosmetics etc... lulu and cirque were sort of wow new products so they carve out some of your spending but then once you have enough of either cirque performance or lulu clothing you want to spend money on other things (like part of a hawaiian vacation)

cliffnotes: i think rich private entrepeneurs have way more tied up in their main business vehicle than people would think

anyhow, just guesses and opinion but i've dealt directly with very rich entrepeneurs for a long time (at least 6-7 that were/are billionaires)

Last edited by rivercitybirdie; 03-29-2015 at 04:03 PM.
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03-29-2015 , 08:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie
so many assumptions...

but my opinion is that if guy keeps it that it will be tough. i think it will even tougher for a new owner.

wonder if private equity people would be enthusiastic about it.... this is very "cultural" business. how would financial owners affect employee morale? (which would probably be transparent to spectator at performance). my guess is they don't like buying 1 man show private companies either. so dependent on entrepeneur and so many important things can be screwed up and some not fixable.

i saw an wsj article that cirque cracked a billion US$ revenue. and net income of $250M (from memory). net income sounds high, so i'd assume it's pre-tax. so say $180M after-tax (and Guy lays claim to most of that)

but of that $180MM, i assume a ton goes to capex. not a huge cap exp business but expanding from 5 shows to 15 (or whatever the number) must cost a ton of money.

i think guy bought out other partners not that long ago. so presumably he'd have bank debt that financed those buyouts.

so i'd assume that capex and bank interest eats alot of $180MM.....

how then do rich guys with private companies live the very rich lifestyle? i assume he borrows against his equity.

i think you find that when very wealthy entrepeneurs main business gets in trouble that that business is much higher % of net worth than you would think.... it's not like guy has $600-$700MM outside his cirque holding. only a guess but i think a good one.

the quebec angle is interesting..... quebec govt investing is legendary for being horrible. up there with the japanese of the 1990's..... i think quebec getting involved is political but i also think it's the only way guy gets a decent price.

fyi for a few questions.............. cirque has been in vegas and touring for a long time i think. i remember temporary tent shows quite a few years ago.... but now cirque has major presences in 1) vegas 2) non-vegas permanent sites; 3) touring. and i think they've expanded all of them in the last 5 to 10 years.

my opinion, and from reading alot of internet comments, is that there's spending fatigue for cirque. people that have been 2-3 times don't feel a compelling need to go again. all kinds of other things you want to spend money on... surprised in fact that the spending fatigue didn't happen long ago.

completely unrelated to cirque, but i think something like lululemon has spending fatigue/competition. once women 40 and under have a few lulu outfits they love then they want to spend money on clothes, boots, travel, cosmetics etc... lulu and cirque were sort of wow new products so they carve out some of your spending but then once you have enough of either cirque performance or lulu clothing you want to spend money on other things (like part of a hawaiian vacation)

cliffnotes: i think rich private entrepeneurs have way more tied up in their main business vehicle than people would think

anyhow, just guesses and opinion but i've dealt directly with very rich entrepeneurs for a long time (at least 6-7 that were/are billionaires)
I think you are underestimating what else he has invested in. When you have that much 'money' you can invest in anything. Lebron James has pretty much doubled his worth in a short amount of time investing. I highly doubt Guy just blew his profits on parties and Dwan.
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03-29-2015 , 08:39 PM
no ty
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03-30-2015 , 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by PokerFan2008
Why did Guy retain 90% ownership? greed, I guess....he missed a huge opportunity to sell 40-45% of the company at its peak and limit his personal liability...how many times do you see founders of companies become to emotionally attached and make poor business decision.
This is so results oriented. He didn't get to where he was by selling off equity along the way.
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03-30-2015 , 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by princekuh1o
This is so results oriented. He didn't get to where he was by selling off equity along the way.
so by not selling off equity then he is now trying to sell off equity now? and at a discount, yeah good plan there..

Your comment is from someone who has never owned a business. You better be results oriented or you are out of business son.
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03-31-2015 , 01:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerFan2008
so by not selling off equity then he is now trying to sell off equity now? and at a discount, yeah good plan there..

Your comment is from someone who has never owned a business. You better be results oriented or you are out of business son.
If it were you at some point you'd probably think "OMG Cirque is worth $10M now! Considering I was juggling on the sidewalk just a few years ago I'd better CASH THE F OUT!"

That's why he's a billionaire and you're not.
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